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Atlantic Hurricane Season 30 Percent Stronger Than Normal
MatthewVD writes "The National Hurricane Center reported today that the combined energy and duration of all the storms in the Atlantic basin hurricane season was 30 percent above the average from 1981 to 2010. At Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters blogs that record low levels of arctic ice could have caused a 'blocking ridge' over Greenland that pushed Hurricane Sandy west. Meanwhile, Bloomberg BusinessWeek says, 'it's global warming, stupid.'"
But then they limited the dates didnt they....to fit their narrative.
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/021813.html
Seems they limited their dates so they could leave out all those in the 50's. Here are their paths. http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/021813.html
It's interesting to know that this season was 30% above the mean, but what's the variance over that same time period?
Because for all I know from the summary, half of those years had storm season that were 30% more active than the average.
Maybe 30% above the mild seasons we've had since Katrina. You know, the "OMGWEREALLGONNADIE" hurricane seasons were supposed to start having due to global warming. Now we have a storm that briefly peaked at CAT2, and did most of its damage as a CAT1, and the chicken littles are out in force again.
They limited their dates to 1981 onwards. You'd have had a point if they'd gone back to 1961, but they didn't even get close to this alleged period they supposedly removed from the stats.
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
If the hurricanes are more powerful, that means they are using more energy, right? And my less than great understanding is that less energy equates to cooler temperatures (for a system), so does this mean the hurricanes are helping to cool the earth by converting excess heat into... well... something that's not heat( e.g. motion or water, wind, etc.)?
Note: I hope this doesn't descend into a flame-war about global warming; the main question is: whatever the temperature, does the energy dissipated by hurricanes ultimately cool the system they are in?
2005 (Hurricane Katrina): "It's global warming, stupid"
2006 Not a single hurricane makes landfall on the US mainland: "Well duh, that's just weather, global warming wouldn't have an impact on weather.
2012: (Hurricane Sandy): "It's global warming, stupid"
Really, can you guys just stop? Seriously, have NONE of you ever read Peter and the Wolf?
-Styopa
Yeah, back in the 1970's the Citigroup Center in New York needed an emergency retrofit due to a design flaw in bolts used to hold the building together. Basically, wind-shear from.. wait for it... a hurricane could topple the building. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citigroup_Center)
So in the 1970's it was common knowledge that New York could and would be hit by hurricanes and it was considered a real enough threat that the engineers went on an emergency retrofitting job to fix the problem once it was discovered. In 2012 a CAT 1 Hurricane actually hits New York, which was 100% expected, and frankly weaker than predicted hurricanes that could hit New York. Of course these inconvenient facts won't deter the alarmist conclusion: GLOBAL WARMING!!!
AntiFA: An abbreviation for Anti First Amendment.
Sure do cause heated debate on Slashdot.
From Dr. Jeff Masters blog at wunderground.com:
April 5, 2012 - "Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity"
>> Bloomberg BusinessWeek says
This is the guy who just banned large sodas, right? Go on...
would those be the people who died or are currently without power or heat around NYC you are referring to?
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
Unfortunately, sea level has risen 15 cm since 1950. The flooding from the storm surge is what causes most of the damage, not the wind. Attributing a single storm to global warming may be uncertain, but there is no uncertainty about the increased damage from the higher storm surge due to global warming.
What's the average deviation? Last time I heard expert meteorologists talking like this, it was right after Katrina, predicting the next year would be severe, too, which it wasn't, demonstrating complete ignorance of statistics, regression to the mean, and chaos theory.
Given it was attempts to simulate and predict weather that lead to the discovery of chaos theory and the butterfly effect, this is particularly shameful.
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
It's NOT global warming stupid. This has happened before. For example:
In **1938** the New England Hurricane - aka "Long Island Express" hit New York as a Cat 3. Wind was around 120mph, and the storm surge was 18 feet (4+ feet higher than Sandy). Thousands of boats and nearly 10,000 houses were destroyed. There were ~60 deaths recorded, and hundreds of injuries. As the storm progressed, it killed over 600 people in New England and destroyed 50,000+ homes. Total property loss/damage is estimated at ~$5 billion (today's dollars).
New York has felt the impact of hurricanes, to a greater or lesser extent, over 90 times since 1804. Nothing new here... move along (and send help to the people up there who are suffering right now - they need food, fuel and water - regardless of what nonsense the media is telling you).
These nut jobs who proclaim global warming and cite all kinds of fabricated or exaggerated "evidence" are the same nut jobs who were proclaiming a global ice age when I was growing up. Wake up people, what we are experiencing is the cyclical nature of nature. Some day we will experience intense heating, and some day we will experience another ice age, and us puny little peons (humans) are completely powerless to cause it or stop it.
Sediments indicate that more and stronger hurricanes made landfall in the area in the 13th and 15th century than at any time since European settlement of New England.
Nothing about Sandy has anything to do with climate change. It was to be expected and people have been warned, though all warnings fell on deaf ears just as in New Orleans. Now, the established procedure is repeated, people moan, complain and blame climate change instead of their incompetent politicians failing to do anything about lack of storm protection for half a century and more - despite the threat being absolutely obvious to anyone daring to have a look at history.
Unfortunately, the USA is a country that collectively doesn't dare to look back into its own history and is thus constantly surprised by every single repetition of things that happened several times before.
The experts at the NHC can't reliably forecast a given hurricane's strength 3 days in advance, even for the killer systems that undergo rapid intensification, a process which requires massive amounts of energy in a small and narrow zone of the atmosphere (read: should be easy to forecast from their spot atmospheric measurements but is not), yet armchair scientists can somehow surmise that a specific storm did what it did based on the sparse influences of a 100 year global warming weather pattern. It's beyond laughable.
No, we all know its Carbon Dioxide that is responsible for global warming, it has nothing to do with the big glowing ball of gas in the sky. The interweb ignores the fact that global warming seems to coincide with the point in the millennial solar cycle it at highest energy output because we have only recorded weather in 'modern" times for the last 100 years or so. 100 years of a global warming trend which happens to coincide with an increase CO2 output means we have done it to ourselves, nature cannot possibly affect the planet in this way.
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
Lol. No you're right. Also evolution is a conspiracy.
Favourite quote:
“We can’t say that steroids caused any one home run by Barry Bonds, but steroids sure helped him hit more and hit them farther. Now we have weather on steroids.”
The practical answers is to tack on a punitive carbon tax to fossil fuel.e.g. an extra $4 per gallon for gas and rising.
Direct all the revenue from this to basic research into fossil-fuel-free energy and transportation technologies.
Preferably focus on research into technologies other than conventional nuclear, since it's already had 70 years of government research funding.
The reason the voices backing the science side of the debate become shrill is in response to your side's refusal to allow these sort
of effective measures to take place. You have to yell pretty loud to get through to people with their head in the sand and people with their hands clamped over
their ears repeating "la la la" over and over to themselves.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale only measures a hurricane's maximum wind speed. While this is reasonably correlated with the damage a hurricane inflicts, it is far from a complete picture. Notably, it disregards:
Storm size - Sandy was a very wide hurricane, and so the damage was more widespread
Storm surge - Sandy had a very large storm surge, and hit an area that is poorly protected from flooding
Rainfall - Hurricanes that drop enough water quickly enough can cause flash floods
Storm speed - SSHS only measures the wind speed relative to the storm. If the storm itself advances rapidly, it can cause significantly more damage than it would otherwise
This study used an alternative measurement - the total kinetic energy of the storm. This is a relatively good measure of the power of a hurricane season.
PS: We've had "mild" seasons since Katrina? News to me, considering 2007 had multiple Category 5s, 2010 is the third-most active season on record, and most of the other years were at best "average". 2006 was actually the only one to be below average.
citation needed.
Really.
Unless you're a YEC where 120 million years ago was actually 6000 years ago with some tricks to make it look older put there by Satan, your fix there is bollocks.
Climate Change: dramatically increasing the amount of "Whooooosh!" over the past 15 years.
Sorry, but with the amount of crazy denialism out there on the far right that it has become impossible to tell the parodies from the real thing nowadays. I even heard a good one on the radio this morning. Someone was at a Romney rally and started heckling the candidate. He held up a sign saying "end climate silence" and called for the candidates to address the issue in the wake of Sandy. The crowd started booing him, then started chanting "USA! USA! USA!" and he was led out by the secret service.
The GOP and the far right has lost all touch with reality. Frankly I think that if Romney doesn't get elected then the time will be ripe for a backlash against the Tea Party extremists and their religious fundamentalist allies. Mayor Bloomberg is in a prime position to spark a centrist realignment of the GOP, if he has the balls to take on the extremists head-to-head. Hell, if Bloomberg ran for President in 2016 (and doesn't tack to the right to win the nomination) then he'd get my vote, and I'm an Obama supporter. I'm sure there's plenty of other potential Bloomberg Republicans out there who have been turned off by the extremist element.
Drill baby drill - on Mars
The wind speed might have only reached a cat 2 but it was among the strongest storms ever for storm surge intensity and the lowest pressure storm to ever make landfall north of Cape Hatteras. In fact Sandy packed the second highest total energy (IKE) of any storm in modern history.
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
You're comparing the entire 2011 hurricane season to a single month in 2012. If you keep trying to mislead people, then at this rate pretty soon you'll be trying to compare the weather during a single day to every hurricane in the previous century.
For the record, according to wikipedia:
2011: 20 depressions, 19 storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes
2012 (so far): 19 depressions, 19 storms, 10 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane
So so far there have been more hurricanes this year than last, though not quite as strong (at least not on the top end.) Of course we still have a month or so to go before we can really tally up the statistics.
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
Oddly enough, if you use the oldest continuously monitored sea level measure, run by the Royal Navy for over 250 years, you see that sea levels have not risen more than 1 cm over the last century.
However, as everybody knows, once you give any data to a climatologist, even say, average kangaroo penis sizes in Queensland, they will manage to massage it into proving their AGW catastrophism.
Dear Snotty Sarcastic Skeptic,
Here is a graph of Solar Irradiance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar-cycle-data.png
Here is a graph of CO2: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg&page=1
Here is a graph of Mean Global Temperature: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_(NASA).svg&page=1
Notice how the temperature tracks with the CO2 concentration and not at all with the solar irradiance?
Yes I believe the earth is getting warmer.
Yes I believe humans have help the earth get warmer.
No I don't believe the warming is all from humans. I personally believe it's a small part but we're helping nonetheless.
Who the fuck cares about your beliefs, unsupported by any evidence?
Watch this Heartland Institute video
No one here will admit to catching the reference.
Charisma is the measure of someone's ability to lie with a straight face.
The "both sides are as bad" argument is just another piece of false balance invented by the lazy USAian media. Sure there are a few nutjobs on the left who think that vaccines cause autism and the like, but denial of hard science is much more prevalent on the right. Fact.
Drill baby drill - on Mars