IBM Predicts the Next 5 Years of Computing

SternisheFan writes "Shaun McGlaun of Slashgear writes: IBM has offered up its annual list of five innovations that will change our lives within five years. IBM calls the list the 'IBM 5 in 5.' The list covers innovations that IBM believes that the potential change the way people work, live, and interact over the next five years. The five innovations IBM lists this year include touch, sight, hearing, taste, and smell. "

Comments

wharrgarbl

[Anonymous Coward]

I wouldn't trust these people to predict what they were having for lunch today.

Re:wharrgarbl

[timeOday]

Well, they have to make some sort of prediction for business planning purposes; maybe the reason they share them with the world is because they know they can't really do it! But they want some "wisdom of crowds" from people like us.

IBM is one company that I cannot begrudge for making predictions. Unlike, say, HP, IBM still invests heavily in basic and applied research (from materials science to Watson) and perhaps more than anybody else, seems to get results, with a fairly steady flow of world-firsts. So they are shaping the future and not just dreaming up sci-fi for page hits.

IBM has no crystal ball

[Anonymous Coward]

Past predictions from IBM have shown that IBM does NOT have any special insight into how the unwritten future will play out...

Re:IBM has no crystal ball

[Jawnn]

Still bitter about having been suckered into buying that PC Jr., eh?

Let's look at what their record has been?

[bogaboga]

IBM has offered up its annual list of five innovations that will change our lives within five years.

If you look at their own website, their past predictions seem to have come up short! Sounds like a very good job a guess work!

Sadly, because it's from IBM, folks will listen and accordingly provide airtime for what I call a very good marketing job. Go IBM!!

Re:Let's look at what their record has been?

[JustinOpinion]

Let's delve into the details a bit. The predictions from 2006 are predictions for 2012. Have they come to pass?

1. Prediction: "We will be able to access healthcare remotely, from just about anywhere in the world" The prediction describes online health records, and telemedicine.
Reality: There have been some efforts, in some countries, to digitize records. Many have failed, some are moving forward. However, to my knowledge, none of them have gained wide acceptance (nor overcome the huge privacy and legal obstacles). The current level of web-integration of our records today is not much different from 2006. As for telemedicine? There have been a few more flashy proof-of-principle demonstrations, but nothing has become routine.

2. Prediction: "Real-time speech translation—once a vision only in science fiction—will become the norm"
Reality: Microsoft recently demonstrated realtime English-to-Chinese translation. However, the very media buzz about that shows that it is far from "the norm". What we have is just tightly-controlled tech demos, not technology integrated into all of our smartphones ("the norm"). It's likely that existing software will get better (text translation has become amazingly good of late)... but it didn't happen within the 5 years they estimated.

3. Prediction: "There will be a 3-D Internet", by which they seemd to have meant three-dimensional navigation/environments (virtual-reality-like).
Reality: Same as 2006, really. We had Second Life, and we still do. We had 3D video-games, and we still do. In fact, this was quite a silly prediction to make in 2006, given how much was already known at that time...

4. Prediction: "Technologies the size of a few atoms will address areas of environmental importance"; this is a vague prediction wherein they reference "Green Chemistry" as if they invented it (they didn't).
Reality: I don't know how to judge this one, since they didn't really make a prediction. There's been more research in the area of green chemistry. Nothing revolutionary has happened in the last 5 years, though.

5. Prediction: "Our mobile phones will start to read our minds", which they clarify as meaning that "mobile devices and networks to (with consent) learn about their users' whereabouts and preferences"
Reality: We can be generous and say that this has come to pass, in the form of smartphones and their associated ecosystem of apps. As a particular example, Google Now (available on Android 4.1 and later) provides contextual information to the user without the user having to explicitly arrange it. For example it warns you that you have to leave now to get to a particular appointment (based on knowledge of your location, the appointment location, and current traffic). If you're at a bus stop, it automatically pulls up the schedule. These kinds of tricks are neat, and will no doubt become more sophisticated with time.

So, my assessment is that their past predictions are right about 20% of the time.

uh, try again

[Tablizer]

Dammit, I want a flying car, NOT #@&% smellavision!

Okay, I'll watch (sniff?) your smellavision if you put it in my flying car, deal?

With all the patent wars

[na1led]

We will be lucky if we make any advancement at all in the next 5 years.