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Data Analyst Spoils the World's Biggest Song Vote

Posted by timothy on from the nate-silver-watch-out dept.

littlekorea writes "A data analyst has successfully predicted the top ten songs of the world's biggest song contest — the Triple J Hottest 100 — by extrapolating voting intentions fans had posted on Twitter and Facebook. Nick Drewe's Warmest 100 list closely mimicked the Hottest 100 results, predicting the top three in correct order and predicting 92 of the most popular 100 songs."

12 of 165 comments (clear)

  1. How is this spoiling? by TWX · · Score: 5, Informative

    That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.

    Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.

    --
    Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    1. Re:How is this spoiling? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.

      Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.

      Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

    2. Re:How is this spoiling? by TWX · · Score: 5, Funny

      Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

      If his prediction was important enough to warrant rearranging the universe, then perhaps the Republican fielded a worse candidate than we could have possibly feared...

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    3. Re:How is this spoiling? by nabsltd · · Score: 5, Funny

      Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).

      When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

    4. Re:How is this spoiling? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Nietzsche didn't influence national socialism. His works were very selectively edited by his sister who was a Nazi to try to give a philosophical background to and synch with Naziism. Nietzsche was very critical of antisemitism and nationalism in his writings. If Nietzsche would have been alive when the Nazis came to power, he would have been one of the first ones targeted.

  2. k... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    did you even look at the page?

    He goes very much out of his way not to spoil it, but giving you half a dozen very large warnings.

  3. Re:This just in by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Sorry Alphatel, but we've never heard of you either. However we do deeply care about your opinion regarding our radio station. Please tell us more.

    Regards,

    Australia.

  4. Re:subject by jonwil · · Score: 4, Informative

    I am an Aussie and love good Aussie music and I haven't heard of any of the songs in the top 20.

    In saying that, I should point out to the foreigners here that Triple J isn't exactly mainstream (Triple J started out as a station to play all the artists that commercial radio was ignoring and still does so today in some cases)

  5. The votes are in! by PPH · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And the winner is ....

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  6. Re:Two things. by deek · · Score: 3, Informative

    1. Your cynicism is getting the better of you. This is a valid news for nerds story, about how data analysis successfully predicted the majority of a list meant to be kept secret. The story would have been interesting, had it come from any part of the world.

    2. The Triple J station is known for playing many alternative and unknown artists. It's a government funded station, but editorially independent from government by law. Your list of known songs/singers/artists are likely influenced by your regional tastes, and also commercial interests of the stations you listen to. These would not match up with an alternative music station.

    2a. Have a listen to Thrift Shop, the song that made #1. I'm not generally one for hip-hop, but I liked it. Great lyrics, has some good things to say about fashion labels and stylistic expectations. Interestingly enough, the song is independent of commercial labels, and has had great success in US/Canada/Australia/New Zealand.

  7. Comparison chart with commentary by diodegod · · Score: 3, Informative

    For a slightly more detailed comparison of Warmest 100 vs. Hottest 100, here's a chart a mate did which includes some commentary:

    http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/WarmesttoHottest1002012/Dashboard

    --
    The beatings will continue until morale improves.
  8. I am the author of the ITnews article. by justin.warren · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So yeah. Hi.

    I wrote some more detailed commentary on my blog, if you want more details than would fit in a short news article.

    http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/24/will-the-warmest-100-prove-a-scorcher/ and http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/26/warmest-100-updates/

    It's nearly midnight here, but if I get a chance in the morning, I'll post up some more info including the code I used to replicate the Warmest 100's methods, and some scatterplots showing how the accuracy of the predictions got better the closer things got to number one, similar to the tableau link from diodegod.

    Statistics is the new black. :)

    --
    Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT after you.