Data Analyst Spoils the World's Biggest Song Vote
littlekorea writes "A data analyst has successfully predicted the top ten songs of the world's biggest song contest — the Triple J Hottest 100 — by extrapolating voting intentions fans had posted on Twitter and Facebook. Nick Drewe's Warmest 100 list closely mimicked the Hottest 100 results, predicting the top three in correct order and predicting 92 of the most popular 100 songs."
That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.
Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
did you even look at the page?
He goes very much out of his way not to spoil it, but giving you half a dozen very large warnings.
Asking people how they're going to vote determined to have predictive value in how they will vote, says latest Slashdot article. Please tag with #obvious and #slownewsday. :/
#fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
I've never even heard of any of the top 25, and none of the top 66 are in my Google Music playlists. I guess that makes me old.
Anyone ever heard of it, it's only like all of Europe (and Russia, and much of the middle east)
You'll be able to predict your children's future. And safely give up the sociopaths for adoption.
If computers were people, I'd be a misanthrope.
Whilst listening to the countdown yesterday I was pondering the idea that the warmest 100 is flawed because it only takes into account the votes from people who think the rest of the world cares about their every thought. Turns out I was wrong... I guess I'm a bit older than the Triple J target demographic these days - I wasn't 20 years ago though dammit!
Next year i'm posting my votes on facebook, just to throw it out a little bit :)
And the winner is ....
Have gnu, will travel.
When most songs and music is now generated by "artists' directed by agents telling them what to do and sing based on analytics, is it that surprising that analytics predicts the outcome of analytics produced crap???
But a a few months ago there were ads asking me to vote for
"One Man, One Woman"
sp I guess there must have been a "Favorite song by ABBA" poll on at that time.
I still preferred Fernando
You have to scroll down the length of an encyclopedia just to get to the various lists of entries all the while the site is telling you that you probably shouldn't ruin it for yourself. It's not like the guys who screamed "Dumbledore's dead!" at midnight book releases.
next year. Watch the fake "intended votes" flood in.
....
That is, if Triple J don't take an entirely different route
And I wouldn't know what a Chrysler VH Charger is without the Australian connection on one of the Chrysler forums that I participate on, even though Chrysler Australia was an unusual overseas sister company that modified more than just which side the steering wheel is on.
/.
I don't have a problem with some esoteric stuff on
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
1. Your cynicism is getting the better of you. This is a valid news for nerds story, about how data analysis successfully predicted the majority of a list meant to be kept secret. The story would have been interesting, had it come from any part of the world.
2. The Triple J station is known for playing many alternative and unknown artists. It's a government funded station, but editorially independent from government by law. Your list of known songs/singers/artists are likely influenced by your regional tastes, and also commercial interests of the stations you listen to. These would not match up with an alternative music station.
2a. Have a listen to Thrift Shop, the song that made #1. I'm not generally one for hip-hop, but I liked it. Great lyrics, has some good things to say about fashion labels and stylistic expectations. Interestingly enough, the song is independent of commercial labels, and has had great success in US/Canada/Australia/New Zealand.
It's a song contest where the public (anyone in the world) can vote for any song (released anywhere in the world) so long as that song was first released in the 12 months prior to start of voting. The station does not nominate songs or pick winners, they simply count votes. The metric is that the Triple J Hottest 100 competition consistently receives the largest number of people voting for a competition of this kind anywhere in the world.
I've been listening to triplej for about 20 years and as usual there are plenty of songs I do not recognize in the list. That is part of the deal with triplej, no comfort zone of classics and far more new music than you can follow.
There will be a few teeny pop songs in the list but if you listen to a few, you'll see that the range is far more diverse and none of the usual pop artists.
Over the past few years triplej has been doing a lot of work to foster local music, their site http://www.triplejunearthed.com/ is great and you can legally download plenty of good music.
I guess one day my music tastes will crystallize and I'll join the host of others who think that music was best in year X (usually when they were a teenager). I'll fight that as long as I can.
The smarter home exchange, http://switchhomes.net
There's a big gap in timezones where the major western country is Australia. So it's minimal news at all during that part of the day, or you get Australian stories when the Australian readership is online.
For a slightly more detailed comparison of Warmest 100 vs. Hottest 100, here's a chart a mate did which includes some commentary:
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/WarmesttoHottest1002012/Dashboard
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
1. This "story" is on Slashdot only because of the Australia connection.
Only thing worse than editors: people constantly bitching "I'm not interested thus this story shouldn't have been posted."
Some of us actually work in data analysis and find it interesting. Sorry everything can't be about the wonders of your roommates' basement.
Are you sick? It isn't a joke, it actually happened - someones baby was taken and killed by a native dog. Hardy-fucking-har. Honestly, the freaks you meet on the Internet :-(
A ferret4 ate my baby.
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
You'll be able to predict your children's future. And safely give up the sociopaths for adoption.
So you're saying you believe the children are our future let them lead and let them show the way show them all the beauty they possess inside?
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
Yes.
Yes I am.
If computers were people, I'd be a misanthrope.
relevant :Lullaby by Tim Minchin, fastforwarded to the correct position. And the dude IS australian.
"DRM is like the Ford Pinto: it's a smooth ride, right up the point at which it explodes and ruins your day."-C.Doctorow
Of course the AC missed the point and goes the easy troll ...
Australia is a western country by most measures - linguistic, cultural, political, economic - if not geographic ... hence why the OP did not say western hemisphere.
In the early AM hours of North America and Europe, Australia is one of the few western country with a significant online population ... so yes on a 24hr forum/site, you will get Australian stories when Australia is one for few nation that are awake!
Also there is a larger proportion on the weekend for some reason - one could guess that perhaps there is a cultural difference where some countries like to use Slashdot on their employer time but not their own - whereas Australian nerds are nerds all week long.
And you're a "jjj" douchewad fanboy of the worst fucking kind. Where does the OP/GP criticize the station. He's merely stating that he hasn't heard of any of these songs and artists. Probably because he's old and treasures his ZZ Top collection or some shit like that.
TV Dinners, If only I could flag her down, slip inside my sleeping bag, you mean that shit. I like the old shit deep purple led zepplin, the saints, hunters, radiators - they played the other night. Its not about old vs new, it's good vs crap (which jjj play a fair share of crap), git it? boy
Yeesh. Kids today.
don't make me spank you, get off my lawn
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
His website contained spoilers. It warned you every 10 songs that you were going to spoil the hottest 100. Between number 11 and 10 it warned you several times, 3 full vertical screen heights of warnings are given.
The only people who spoiled the worlds biggest song vote are those who read the results, oh and the shithouse media who ran what number one was going to be in the first line of an article.
Yes.
Yes I am.
that's a beautiful thing to share, it's the greatest love of all
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
Surely can't beat the Eurovision in terms of biggest song contest ?
WTF? What list are you reading?
So yeah. Hi.
I wrote some more detailed commentary on my blog, if you want more details than would fit in a short news article.
http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/24/will-the-warmest-100-prove-a-scorcher/ and http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/26/warmest-100-updates/
It's nearly midnight here, but if I get a chance in the morning, I'll post up some more info including the code I used to replicate the Warmest 100's methods, and some scatterplots showing how the accuracy of the predictions got better the closer things got to number one, similar to the tableau link from diodegod.
Statistics is the new black. :)
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT after you.
Yes, how tasteless... Now if you don't mind, I have a game to play. http://www.koboldsatemybaby.com/
I'm a Canadian and I listen to Triple J *because* it isn't exactly mainstream. I've been listening for about 10 years, and it's really coloured my musical tastes.
Oddly enough, they play Canadian artists who don't even get airplay in Canada. (Commercial radio here is garbage.)
Does it make you happy you're so strange?
in USA used as comedic phrase in espisodes in both the Simpson's and Seinfeld. that's the only references most US people will know
My wife plays that song. I find the lyrics to be campy humor. Not bad, in the same way that an R-rated Weird Al song would not be "bad". For reference:
Hey, Macklemore! Can we go thrift shopping?
What, what, what, what... [x7]
Bada, badada, badada, bada... [x9]
[Hook:]
I'm gonna pop some tags
Only got twenty dollars in my pocket
I - I - I'm hunting, looking for a come-up
This is fucking awesome
[Verse 1:]
Nah, Walk up to the club like, "What up, I got a big cock!"
I'm so pumped about some shit from the thrift shop
Ice on the fringe, it's so damn frosty
That people like, "Damn! That's a cold ass honkey."
Rollin' in, hella deep, headin' to the mezzanine,
Dressed in all pink, 'cept my gator shoes, those are green
Draped in a leopard mink, girls standin' next to me
Probably shoulda washed this, smells like R. Kelly's sheets
(Piiisssssss)
But shit, it was ninety-nine cents! (Bag it)
Coppin' it, washin' it, 'bout to go and get some compliments
Passin' up on those moccasins someone else's been walkin' in
But me and grungy fuckin it man
I am stuntin' and flossin' and
Savin' my money and I'm hella happy that's a bargain, bitch
I'm a take your grandpa's style, I'm a take your grandpa's style,
No for real - ask your grandpa - can I have his hand-me-downs? (Thank you)
Velour jumpsuit and some house slippers
Dookie brown leather jacket that I found diggin'
They had a broken keyboard, I bought a broken keyboard
I bought a skeet blanket, then I bought a kneeboard
Hello, hello, my ace man, my Mello
John Wayne ain't got nothing on my fringe game, hell no
I could take some Pro Wings, make them cool, sell those
The sneaker heads would be like "Aw, he got the Velcros"
[Hook x2]
[Verse 2:]
What you know about rockin' a wolf on your noggin?
What you knowin' about wearin' a fur fox skin?
I'm digging, I'm digging, I'm searching right through that luggage
One man's trash, that's another man's come-up
Thank your granddad for donating that plaid button-up shirt
'Cause right now I'm up in her stunting
I'm at the Goodwill, you can find me in the (Uptons)
I'm not, I'm not sick of searchin' in that section (Uptons)
Your grammy, your aunty, your momma, your mammy
I'll take those flannel zebra jammies, second-hand, I rock that motherfucker
The built-in onesie with the socks on that motherfucker
I hit the party and they stop in that motherfucker
They be like, "Oh, that Gucci - that's hella tight."
I'm like, "Yo - that's fifty dollars for a T-shirt."
Limited edition, let's do some simple addition
Fifty dollars for a T-shirt - that's just some ignorant bitch (shit)
I call that getting swindled and pimped (shit)
I call that getting tricked by a business
That shirt's hella dough
And having the same one as six other people in this club is a hella don't
Peep game, come take a look through my telescope
Trying to get girls from a brand? Man you hella won't
Man you hella won't
(Goodwill... poppin' tags... yeah!)
[Hook]
[Bridge: x2]
I wear your granddad's clothes
I look incredible
I'm in this big ass coat
From that thrift shop down the road
[Hook]
Is that your grandma's coat?
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
The OP makes a good point? I'm not so sure of that.
In the last month, there have been 11 stories tagged with the "Australia" label. Second from the top, the stories have been about: the Pirate Party being registered, monitoring body temperature of firefighters, potential cure for aids discovered, major telescope threatened by bushfire, spy agency seeking permission to hack third-party computers, R18+ classification for video games, insulin's structure being cracked, orbital pictures of bushfires, drones used for bushfire forecasting, and the world's oldest fossils found. Most, if not all, are quite valid news for nerds stories.
There have been 30 stories specifically tagged as "usa", in that same time period. Granted, some stories are a little bizarrely tagged as "usa". Not sure why a story about unemployed chinese graduates is labelled such. Regardless, it's easy to see that Slashdot has a much larger USA bias.
And you know what, that's fine. It's good to read about things happening in the USA, just as much as it is for Americans to read about what's happening in the rest of the world. Including Australia. Stop acting insular. Enjoy learning anything and everything about the world around you. This is what, to me, truly defines being a nerd.
... because you can bet on this vote. He has won tens of thousands of dollars, beating the bookies every year for the last few years. He thought this whole thing was pretty funny but hopes it doesn't affect his chances next year.
Not being familiar with the music is one thing, but if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.
You should check out The Black Keys. Not only are they on this list so you could feel a little more in touch, they make music that could have come from the 70s.
hahah - that's great, I like em both actually. I've never been "in touch" and neither are you because your posting to me on slashdot - which crack me up more because you're an AC and probably moderating.
no, I only know what I like. I lost count of how many concerts I'd been to at 50 when I was in my late teens and I still see heaps of bands with all the other people that don't know what "in touch" means. Them crooked vulture, Mars volta, You am I, Bluejuice, Sneaky sound system, dizzy rascal. Thanks for trying though got any other suggestions?
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
Having a Top 100 Australian songs of the year is a bit like having a Top 100 Taliban Feminists Of The Year.
To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.
Or, perhaps, he is only paying attention to good music. Life's too short to follow every faddy, financially successful attention whore.
To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
A drop bear stole my ute!
It doesn't mean much now, it's built for the future.