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Updated Model Puts Earth On the Edge of the Habitable Zone
cylonlover writes with news of an update to the model used for calculating the habitable zone around stars shifting things out a bit. From the article: "Researchers at Penn state have developed a new method for calculating the habitable zone (original paper, PDF) around stars. The computer model based on new greenhouse gas databases provides a tool to better estimate which extrasolar planets with sufficient atmospheric pressure might be able to maintain liquid water on their surface. The new model indicates that some of the nearly 300 possible Earth-like planets previously identified might be too close to their stars to to be habitable. It also places the Solar System's habitable zone between 0.99 AU (92 million mi, 148 million km) and 1.70 AU (158 million mi, 254 million km) from the Sun. Since the Earth orbits the Sun at an average distance of one AU, this puts us at the very edge of the habitable zone."
by deciding to include my neighborhood.
This then suggests a simple fix for global warming - we just need to move Earth into a slightly higher orbit. A few hundred well-placed nuclear bombs ought to do it.
They adjust the "habitable zone" for each star already.
How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
TFS already indicates that the change affects where the Solar System's habital zone is calculated to be; even without looking at TFA it is clear that the "habitable zone" is star-specific.
You're right, we shouldn't build models based on math. We shouldn't even try to understand the universe using such abstract tools. We should rely on thought experiments and push models around in sand. We can dress in togas and burn heretics.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
The whole "Earth is fine-tuned for life" stuff has been debunked for ages (but still circulates thanks to creationists), but it's pretty amazing to consider our planet could be more than 1.5 times as far out as it is now, and still remain habitable.
Also, note that the Earth's perihelion places us at 0.983AU. If these numbers are correct, our orbit actually leaves the habitable zone for a brief period every year.
Surely you all know the habitable zone is exactly 20ft wide? Someone told me once, so I believed them
1. I'm pretty sure that Venus doesn't have an appreciable magnetic field.
2. Even if it did, its day is about the same length in its year (e.g. about 250 earth days) so nobody could live in any fixed place on the planet without freezing or melting, even if we got rid of the thick atmosphere. You'd have to live in trucks rolling slowly around the planet in the ... pardon the pun ... twilight zone.
Mars on the other hand has normal days and could be warmed up with a greenhouse effect. Also, the thicker atmosphere would provide additional sheilding at the surface level. One could imagine the last few percentage points of shielding being made up with local magnetic field "bubbles" around settled areas, powered by fusion reactors, assuming we have that technology in the next century or so.
Surface? No, but Europa is believed to have an icy surface hiding a massive liquid water ocean. Although it is far from the habitable zone, gravitational interactions with Jupiter generates heat which keeps the oceans liquid. Add in some organic materials (which asteroids might supply) and life could have developed deep under the surface of Europa. Perhaps right now, as I type this, some big Europan fish-like creature is swimming through the cold oceans on the moon. (Or perhaps there are just Europan bacteria... even single celled alien life would be a major find.)
My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
Mars had liquid water at some point and is outside the habitable zone, for some definitions of habitable zone. So it is entirely possible that planets with liquid water can exist outside the habitable zone. The real issue is with stability. An interesting take on this is to consider the flux of radiation from the Sun hitting the Earth. For a disk the size of the Earth, one can calculate the distance where water freezes and where water boils as a rough estimate of a "zone" of sorts. When looked at in this way, the Earth is at a point just barely above freezing. That we have the climate that we do beyond that near freezing point is due entirely to greenhouse effects.
Hmm, not in my definition of "few hundred". The calculation is actually easy to make:
The earth is about 1,5E11 m away from the Sun, let's say that 1% is the variation that we want, so we get it to 1,515E11 m. So the difference in energy that we need is GMm(1/R1-1/R2) \approx 5E31 J; quite a lot.
The best (or worst, depending on your point of view) nuke we ever exploded is the Tsar Bomba, which was 57 megatons or better 2,4E17 J.
So if we managed to use this energy with 100% efficiency (which we obviously can't) to move the Earth, we would need 10^14 nukes. Well, guess we're stuck here.
entropy happens
Alas, you are wrong about Venus. It has a negligible magnetic field (likely due to no core convection) and cosmic rays and the soloar wind freely interact with the upper atmosphere causing hydrogen loss. As well, if Venus was a black body and had no incoming radiation it would take on the order of 600+ years to cool off.
Mars had liquid water at some point and is outside the habitable zone, for some definitions of habitable zone. So it is entirely possible that planets with liquid water can exist outside the habitable zone.
Am I correct in assuming that the liquid which must have flowed on Mars doesn't necessarily have to be water, or has there been proof that the liquid was specifically water? That's a real question by the way, I'm not trying to be sarcastic. If anyone knows, I'd appreciate an answer.
The presence of water is proven on Mars. The existence of minerals that only form in the presence of water is proven on the surface of Mars. Massive liquid-based erosion is proven on the surface of Mars. Its reasonable to assume they're all related. And, frankly, the fact that water is found damn near everywhere in the solar system where it hasn't been torn apart by radiation, or heat makes is really implausible that there wouldn't have been water on Mars -- water that got there the same way it got to Earth, during a period of time in which Mars was more conducive to surface water than Earth.
IMO, the whole "finding water on Mars" thing is more akin to the "seeing a giant squid alive in the ocean". Everyone knows its there, but scientists just like to see things with their own eyes. The search is the fun part, so... search away.