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Over the Antarctic, the Smallest Ozone Hole In a Decade

hypnosec writes "The ozone layer seems to be on a road to recovery over Antarctica; according to Europe's MetOp weather satellite, which is monitoring atmospheric ozone, the hole over the South Pole in 2012 was the smallest it's been in the last 10 years. The decrease in size of the hole is probably the result of reduction in the concentration of CFCs, especially since the mid-1990s, because of international agreements like the Montreal Protocol."

174 comments

  1. HypnoToad says by DFurno2003 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Correlation is not causation.

    1. Re:HypnoToad says by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 5, Informative

      Except that these processes are simple enough that we can measure the high altitude concentrations of these compounds and show that their influence on the O3 concentration closely matches our understanding of the processes involved.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    2. Re:HypnoToad says by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 3, Informative

      I did read a paper not so long ago about the Ozone layer being regulated to a large degree by cosmic rays, over the Antarctic.

      And by the way, moderating dissenting voices "troll" is totally beyond the pale. Science is about skepticism. Physicists are highly skeptical of each other's results. When it comes to Earth Sciences, why is it that people crowd the paradigm like it's a sacred tome? Debates here would be far more interesting if they were actually allowed.

    3. Re:HypnoToad says by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Indeed.

      The decrease in size of the hole is probably the result of reduction in the concentration of CFCs, especially since the mid-1990s, because of international agreements like the Montreal Protocol.

      It was urgent that CFCs be phased out not because of atmospheric damage but because DuPont's patents on them were about to expire. Anyone who works with refrigerants knows how "fucked" the replacements are compared to their predecessors.

    4. Re:HypnoToad says by russotto · · Score: 2, Informative

      It was urgent that CFCs be phased out not because of atmospheric damage but because DuPont's patents on them were about to expire.

      That's bullshit. R-12 and R-22 were long out of patent by the time the phaseout started.

      Anyone who works with refrigerants knows how "fucked" the replacements are compared to their predecessors.

      That, unfortunately, is true.

    5. Re:HypnoToad says by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 5, Informative

      Good job misrepresenting that. Here, let me post the abstract, literally the first thing you'd read:

      This Letter reports reliable satellite data in the period of 1980–2007 covering two full 11-yr cosmic ray (CR) cycles, clearly showing the correlation between CRs and ozone depletion, especially the polar ozone loss (hole) over Antarctica. The results provide strong evidence of the physical mechanism that the CR-driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules plays the dominant role in causing the ozone hole. Moreover, this mechanism predicts one of the severest ozone losses in 2008–2009 and probably another large hole around 2019–2020, according to the 11-yr CR cycle.

      The paper does not say it's dependent on cosmic rays exclusively, instead it points out that cosmic ray activity seems to play a significant role in determining the activity of halogenated molecules destroying ozone. Guess which one of those parameters we've totally screwed around with from the 1970s onwards?

      I'll give you a hint: it's not cosmic ray irradiation.

    6. Re:HypnoToad says by khallow · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This Letter reports reliable satellite data in the period of 1980â"2007 covering two full 11-yr cosmic ray (CR) cycles

      This should be a warning sign for you. Small data sets(and here, over short time scales) can indicate correct results, but they can also be highly misleading.

    7. Re:HypnoToad says by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well, that applies to the hypothesis that man-made CFCs cause it too. We don't have a record of the ozone hole over the Antarctic going back very far either, do we? For all we know, it's a natural cyclic event.

    8. Re:HypnoToad says by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Interesting point, but therein lies the rub: The paper predicts another large hole around 2019. If that does happen, will you concede that it falsifies the hypothesis that the hole is caused by man-mad CFCs? This is how science works, after all, is it not? I will put my £10 onto the table if you will.

    9. Re:HypnoToad says by at0mjack · · Score: 3, Informative

      *sigh*. If you're going to quote the scientific literature in support of your argument, you need to at least make some effort to understand it first.

      The paper says that cosmic rays strongly correlate with ozone depletion. The data point to cosmic-ray driven reactions of halogenated molecules as being the cause of the correlation. The *only* halogenated molecules present in the stratosphere in any significant concentration are CFCs. I'll repeat that: where the paper talks about "halogenated molecules", it's talking about CFCs, HCFCs and other man-made chemicals.

      Hence, this paper is presenting an alternative explanation to *why* CFCs damage the ozone layer. The prevailing hypothesis is that photolysis of CFCs (i.e. UV from the sun breaking them apart) is what kicks off the ozone-depleting catalytic cycle. This paper says "Nah, it's not photolysis, it's cosmic-ray-induced ionisation of the CFCs that sets the whole thing off".

      From the paper:

      In the CR-driven mechanism, the O3 -depleting reactions depend on halogen concentrations, CR intensity, and PSC ice (to hold the electrons) in the stratosphere [6,8]. From 1992 up to now, the Antarctic O3 loss has shown a clearest correlation with the CR intensity. This is because the total halogen amount of the stratosphere, particularly those of CFCs, is nearly constant in that period of time [30]; thus the regulating effect of CRs on O3 loss becomes manifest. In contrast, such a time correlation is hardly seen in the enlarging spring polar O3 loss during 1980s, since at that period of time, the halogen loading increased dramatically and thus ozone showed a drastic decreasing trend blurring the CR-O3 loss correlation. And in the pre-1980s, no significant halogen loading was found in the stratosphere, and thus no significant O3 loss was observed.

      Summarising that: since 1992, there's been loads of CFCs in the atmosphere, and hence the rate-limiting step in how much ozone gets broken down is how many cosmic rays there are. Before 1980, there were no CFCs in the stratosphere, and hence cosmic rays didn't destroy any ozone. Your bet is thus meaningless: this paper is part of the argument over *why* CFCs cause ozone depletion, not *whether*.

    10. Re:HypnoToad says by sjames · · Score: 1

      Very true, but only time can give us more data. Sure, we'd all like to see 10 more cycles, but that will necessarily take 110 years to collect. For now, we'll just have to deal with 2 cycles and limit claims with phrases like 'suggestive of' and 'points to'. In 2019 we can look at the analysis of another cycle and feel slightly more (or less?)confident in the results.

    11. Re:HypnoToad says by sjames · · Score: 1

      The really screwy part is that the new 'blessed' refrigerants are themselves pretty harmful. We'd be much better off going with propane, but that would be cheap and non-patentable, so of course that would be a travesty of epic proportions.

    12. Re:HypnoToad says by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 1

      I understand the paper and I also understand what you're saying. My contention is tangential to the paper and that is that the ozone hole over the Antarctic is natural variation (regulated by cosmic rays), and very little or absolutely nothing to do with man-made CFCs. The hypothesis therefore, is that the ozone hole will be very large in or around 2019. If that is the case, given that we stopped both producing and releasing CFCs well within their atmospheric lifetime, will you or will you not concede that the hypothesis that the hole is caused by man-made CFCs has been falsified? If that is not the case, of course I will concede that my hypothesis has been falsified.

      It's a very simple question.

    13. Re:HypnoToad says by Troed · · Score: 1

      *sigh*. If you're going to quote the scientific literature in support of your argument, you need to at least make some effort to understand it first.

      The paper says that cosmic rays strongly correlate with ozone depletion. The data point to cosmic-ray driven reactions of halogenated molecules as being the cause of the correlation. The *only* halogenated molecules present in the stratosphere in any significant concentration are CFCs. I'll repeat that: where the paper talks about "halogenated molecules", it's talking about CFCs, HCFCs and other man-made chemicals.

      "Coastal waters of the tropical Western Pacific produce natural halogenated organic molecules involving chlorine, bromine and iodine atoms that may damage the stratospheric ozone layer. "

      "Micro-organisms such as macro-algae and phytoplankton form natural halogenated organic molecules, which are released into the air, where they eventually find their way into the stratosphere."

      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120201093105.htm

    14. Re:HypnoToad says by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 1

      Precisely. So no reason to shout down dissent at this stage.

    15. Re:HypnoToad says by sjames · · Score: 1

      Also no reason to rail against the consensus.

    16. Re:HypnoToad says by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      *sigh*. If you're going to quote the scientific literature in support of your argument, you need to at least make some effort to understand it first.

      The paper says that cosmic rays strongly correlate with ozone depletion. The data point to cosmic-ray driven reactions of halogenated molecules as being the cause of the correlation. The *only* halogenated molecules present in the stratosphere in any significant concentration are CFCs. I'll repeat that: where the paper talks about "halogenated molecules", it's talking about CFCs, HCFCs and other man-made chemicals.

      "Coastal waters of the tropical Western Pacific produce natural halogenated organic molecules involving chlorine, bromine and iodine atoms that may damage the stratospheric ozone layer. "

      "Micro-organisms such as macro-algae and phytoplankton form natural halogenated organic molecules, which are released into the air, where they eventually find their way into the stratosphere."

      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/02/120201093105.htm

      And yet - as was pointed out in the paper - the concentration of CFCs in the atmosphere is carefully monitored these days, and has been static since about 1992 which correlates with treaties and provisions phasing out CFC use in industry. The quantities man put up are staggering compared to any natural production.

    17. Re:HypnoToad says by Troed · · Score: 1

      The quantities man put up are staggering compared to any natural production.

      Could you please source that statement? Since we've only recently discovered some of the natural sources it does surprise me that we would know anything about the ratio.

    18. Re:HypnoToad says by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      The quantities man put up are staggering compared to any natural production.

      Could you please source that statement? Since we've only recently discovered some of the natural sources it does surprise me that we would know anything about the ratio.

      Given how CFCs work, if significant natural sources existed then we would have observed a significant ozone hole well before human production of CFCs started up. They're long-life molecules which do not fall out of the atmosphere easily, but we know there was no pre-existing ozone hole before the invention of CFCs and their use in industry.

      This is a decent report on the matter: http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap2-4/sap2-4-final-ch2.pdf

    19. Re:HypnoToad says by Troed · · Score: 1

      but we know there was no pre-existing ozone hole before the invention of CFCs and their use in industry

      We most certainly do not. The ozon "hole" was discovered first time we looked (after a hypothesis was formed as to how CFCs could impact stratospheric ozone) and we have no data whatsoever as to how the concentration of ozone has fluctuated over history. Thus, we have no baseline to compare natural vs human sourced influence with.

      (The report you link to does not contain any data on the subject)

      CFCs have been produced and used since the 1930's. The first reliable ozone hole measurements were done in the early 1980's. The fact that there are natural sources of halogenated molecules now cast doubt on how causative the correlation with human created molecules is. A biological oceanic source in the pacific will likely oscillate with the PDO - a 60 year cycle.

    20. Re:HypnoToad says by khallow · · Score: 1

      Also no reason to rail against the consensus.

      Lack of data is a great reason to rail against consensus.

  2. This is great news. by noobermin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Perhaps this means that conservation efforts over the last decade have had effect? I don't know, I'm honestly speaking from a point of view that is ignorant of climate science. In any case, this is great news.

    1. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      No. The hole in the ozone is caused by chlorine in the stratosphere, which gets there in chloroflorocarbons, catalyzing the O3 generated by the radiation in the upper atmosphere. It has nothing to do with climate change or greenhouse gasses.

    2. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I blame global warming, after all there's a weak correlation between increased global temperatures and a smaller ozone hole.

    3. Re:This is great news. by jhoegl · · Score: 0

      You do realize that these arguments mean fuckall to Nature.
      The earth will repair itself eventually, with or without us.

    4. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Perhaps it's entirely a natural occurence and that all the efforts were for nothing at all...

    5. Re:This is great news. by leenks · · Score: 4, Funny

      That's what the Martian's said, too!

    6. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes, perhaps there is no physics and it's all unpredictable magic.

    7. Re:This is great news. by HotNeedleOfInquiry · · Score: 1

      There's also a correlation between cosmic rays and the ozone hole. Just saying.

      --
      "Eve of Destruction", it's not just for old hippies anymore...
    8. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perhaps this means that conservation efforts over the last decade have had effect?

      Conservation? That's not the word I would have used.

      We've reduced or eliminated the use of certain CFCs, e.g. R-12 (Freon) in automotive A/C and the propellant in aerosol spray cans, both since 1989; considerably longer than a decade.

      No matter what the cause, it's good news that the hole seems to be shrinking.

    9. Re:This is great news. by noobermin · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the clarification.

    10. Re:This is great news. by Joce640k · · Score: 2

      What's a 'said'? What did it do?

      --
      No sig today...
    11. Re:This is great news. by Ironix · · Score: 1

      There's also a correlation between cosmic rays and the ozone hole. Just saying.

      There is also a correlation between Russia's population decline and the ozone hole. Just saying.

      --
      Still #1 -- Lonely Gay Geek
    12. Re:This is great news. by jkflying · · Score: 1

      That Earth would repair itself?

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    13. Re:This is great news. by Redmancometh · · Score: 1

      Whoosh. Right over his head.

    14. Re:This is great news. by Redmancometh · · Score: 2

      We're in the solar maximum...(do NOT link me the cme/flare study it's irrelevent) so the luminescence and irradiation are increased. So more solar wind AND a smaller hole. Your argument is not as it was intended.

    15. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree

    16. Re:This is great news. by rgbatduke · · Score: 1

      Well, except for the fact that ozone is an important GHG -- one of the three most important ones, from the spectroscopic data -- albeit one that is most common in the stratosphere where it warms the tropopause from above, rather than in the troposphere...

      rgb

      --
      Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
    17. Re:This is great news. by H0p313ss · · Score: 2

      You do realize that these arguments mean fuckall to Nature.

      The earth will repair itself eventually, with or without us.

      Mhm... but eventually in geological terms, so hundreds of thousands or millions of years.

      --
      XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
    18. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Surely from that point of view the Earth isn't even broken.

    19. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that the CFCs are greenhouse gases, too.

    20. Re:This is great news. by smellotron · · Score: 1

      That's what the Martian's said, too!

      What's a 'said'? What did it do?

      GP used a Martian apostrophe, you insensitive clod!

    21. Re:This is great news. by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 2

      Well, except for the fact that ozone is an important GHG -- one of the three most important ones, from the spectroscopic data -- albeit one that is most common in the stratosphere where it warms the tropopause from above, rather than in the troposphere...

      rgb

      It's also in staggeringly low quantities there. The ozone-layer is about the reduction of UV-irradiation, and in the troposphere it has a very short half-life because it's no reactive (hence why depletion in the stratosphere is a problem).

    22. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The causal link for that correlation appears to be that the cosmic rays break down the CFC's which releases the chlorine that destroys ozone. Apparently with less CFC's the cosmic rays would do less damage to the ozone.

    23. Re:This is great news. by fyngyrz · · Score: 2

      Surely from that point of view the Earth isn't even broken.

      Oh, no. It's broken, all right. And we're the thing that broke it. But the earth will fix the problem. See "super-volcano", LOL.

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    24. Re:This is great news. by jkflying · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry my humour is a bit dry for some people. And no sir, whoosh to you!

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    25. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't give a fuck about a martian comma.
      I've seen those Martian dramas too

    26. Re:This is great news. by LordNelsonthe2nd · · Score: 1

      I would say you rather notice the ozone hole when you're red like a tomato after lying around at the sea for some time on a warm summer day and it doesn't have anything to do with global warming at all. Maybe you could do that more often with a bit of global warming though?

    27. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My gal has been doing Kiegels to get a smaller hole. Definitely making me hotter.
      Recursive correlation and causation.

    28. Re:This is great news. by necro81 · · Score: 1

      Great news, everyone!
      First thing that came into my mind.

    29. Re:This is great news. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Since stratospheric ozone is produced by ultraviolet light from the sun, how much of the "ozone hole"'s reduction is explained by greater solar irradiation?

    30. Re:This is great news. by hackertourist · · Score: 1

      GP was talking about "conservation efforts", which is a broader class than just 'climate change or greenhouse gasses'. In this case, the conservation efforts included regulating/banning the use of CFCs which are a major contributor to the hole in the ozone layer. And yes, those efforts were successful.

  3. Non-story? by newcastlejon · · Score: 1

    Surely if it's been shrinking all this time then you could have the same story every day: "ozone hole smallest size since $date". Has it grown occasionally for some reason?

    --
    If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
    1. Re:Non-story? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If only one of the linked articles had some sort of graphical representation of the ozone hole to help you understand.

    2. Re:Non-story? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "The depletion in the Ozone layer is more prominent in the South Pole as compared to the Arctic Circle because of high wind speeds that results into a fast-rotating vortex of cold air which leads to lower temperatures."

      Guessing the hole in bigger in winter.

    3. Re:Non-story? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It probably varies in size due to centripetal force and seasonal proximity to the sun. And why not toss the Coriolis effect for good measure.

    4. Re:Non-story? by Dan+East · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The ozone "hole" expands and contracts with atmospheric temperature. The colder it is, the thinner the ozone, and thus the larger the hole. So the size of the hole is both seasonal, and coupled to polar temperatures. I believe the hole is the smallest ever because the temperature has been warmer, not necessarily because less ozone is destroyed by man made chemicals.

      --
      Better known as 318230.
    5. Re:Non-story? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The ozone "hole" expands and contracts with atmospheric temperature. The colder it is, the thinner the ozone, and thus the larger the hole. So the size of the hole is both seasonal, and coupled to polar temperatures. I believe the hole is the smallest ever because the temperature has been warmer, not necessarily because less ozone is destroyed by man made chemicals.

      Ozone holes in the north have been bigger, which seems to back up what youre saying

    6. Re:Non-story? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      .... shhhhhh! Don't let it get out that there can be benefits to a warmer globe!

    7. Re:Non-story? by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Informative

      Surely if it's been shrinking all this time then you could have the same story every day: "ozone hole smallest size since $date". Has it grown occasionally for some reason?

      For reasons that are sufficiently messy that I certainly couldn't do them justice(and there really isn't any point in copy/pasting a pretend understanding from wikipedia and just wasting space) ozone levels vary considerably over time, both because of natural seasonal weather patterns and because of changes in the presence of various ozone-depleting synthetic compounds.

      My understanding is that trends on atmospheric concentration of more or less all of the really nasty ozone-depleting compounds have been positive since regulation went into effect; but that the size and shape of the ozone hole has been a great deal more chaotic from season to season(shape counts, for our purposes, because ozone thinning over the antarctic is a bad sign; but the number of epidemiologists who care about penguin melanoma is limited, while ozone thinning over Australia is directly troublesome).

    8. Re:Non-story? by Swampash · · Score: 1

      As a southerhemispherer I remember being able to go outside without sun protection. Because the sun protection was, you know, the upper atmosphere. No chance of that now.

    9. Re:Non-story? by TarPitt · · Score: 3, Funny

      Graphical representation of a hole?

      NO NO I will not post a link to GOATSE !!!

      Must resist temptation

      --
      If your children ever found out how lame you are, they'd murder you in your sleep
    10. Re:Non-story? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It hasn't been shrinking all this time - it's been growing at an alarming rate since the 70's, and only began slowing down (but still growing) in the late 90's after the use of CFCs was drastically reduced. (Well, it grows and shrinks in response to environmental factors, such as temperature, but under the same conditions from one year to the next it was getting larger so it was growth overall) In 2006 the hole was the largest it had been in recorded history.

      So it's the smallest it's been in the last 10 years, but still larger than it was before then.

  4. Says Fox News.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sean Hannity called, he wanted to remind you it was the smallest ozone hole over the entire century. And that the the definition of "hole" varies between measurement organizations.

  5. More Flame Wars by Jetra · · Score: 0

    No, this will re-kindle the fire that both sides of the coin have been at for the last 30 years or so. Watch as more "research" is done to prove/disprove that conservation is having an impact on the earth in general. The oil companies will take credit that their efforts are showing effect so we shouldn't stop using gas while actual climatologists fight tooth and nail to get the years' research grant money.

    1. Re:More Flame Wars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What does oil and gas have to do with CFCs?

    2. Re:More Flame Wars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      CFCs are gas. And hydrocarbon, just like oil! What more could you ask for? ;)

  6. Sweet!!!!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I have a stash of 80s era aqua-net I've been saving for this occasion!!!!!

    1. Re:Sweet!!!!!! by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      I still have about half a can of vintage contact/tuner cleaner.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  7. Re:Still freezing my butt off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    you are confusing ozone with global warming, the two are separate issues

    you are also under the guise of being able to tell weather-difference based on your memories

  8. In other words ... by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ... scientists recognized an environmental problem and demonstrated a clear link to human activity, the scientists told the politicians about it, the politicians acted, and now the problem's going away.

    My God, this is terrible! We must ensure that no such thing ever happens again!

    --
    The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    1. Re:In other words ... by crutchy · · Score: 2

      nah.... the denialist 'experts' will simply claim that a volcano... erm.... ate all the.... carbon dioxide.... an stuff

    2. Re:In other words ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My God, this is terrible! We must ensure that no such thing ever happens again!

      ...We are.

    3. Re:In other words ... by hairyfish · · Score: 2

      Fuck big govt and their oppressive regulations. I much prefer skin cancer.

    4. Re:In other words ... by metrometro · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The important thing to remember is that if unregulated, industry would have fixed this eventually. Like, after we were all dead.

    5. Re:In other words ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We just reversed a natural disaster! Wow!!! we must be Hercules!!!!!

      Or we are just stupid enough to believe that we had anything but a minor impact on a naturally occurring cycle. I predicted this headline months ago. Stick around long enough and the other half of the prediction will turn up as the hole begins growing again and we look around for another anthropic excuse for the growing hole.

      Epidemiologists are great at turning minor percentages into the straw that broke the camel's back. Overwhelming evidence that links smoking with cancer (~400% increased likelihoods) don't happen every day, but some epidemiologists dream of being the one to make one of those world changing discoveries. When the data doesn't support it we start using words like "tipping point" as if we can all see the kick in the graph that the linear trend so far hasn't indicated.

      Does anyone who truly thinks about these things really believe that ALL the CFCs we produced in the world moved to the polar upper atmosphere? And if not, what concentration are we then looking at? If we are now looking at a concentration of 1ppb, or even 1ppm is that really enough to CAUSE what we are seeing? There is plenty of room for skepticism here.

      "I saw phosphorus exposed to air cause fire. We have air all over the place and fires here and there. I bet ALL those fires are all caused by phosphorus!"

      Try the analogy on for size: Well, it turns out since we discovered the effect of phosphorus we have been able to produce fire via that method (some matches use phosphorus) it by no means explains every fire and is unlikely to explain a great many, perhaps the majority of fires.

      The only reason we believe the rhetoric is first, our collective lack of understanding (relative to the fire analogy) of the Ozone layer that allowed the majority to believe a scientist or two unquestioningly. From then on it was peer pressure for the rest. Hmmm, and we think science and religion are so different?

  9. Re:Still freezing my butt off by Vintermann · · Score: 1

    Rather than going by your intuition, maybe you should go to eklima, where you can access all climate data from Norwegian weather stations since 1901. It's not impossible that it should have gone the other way here compared to the globe as a whole, but I doubt it.

    --
    xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
  10. Great... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So when can I start using the cheaper freon again?

  11. Re:Still freezing my butt off by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This demonstrates a problem seen on both sides of the climate change debate - people look at their short term local environment and extrapolate those experiences to the world as a whole without looking at actual relevant data.

    Had a really hot summer? Boy, this global warming has gotten bad, it's going to wipe out humanity in a decade.

    Terrible winter? Man, I'm tired of all those global warming alarmists - I wish it WAS warming!

    But as far as the ozone hole goes... Given the very slow rate of exchange between the upper and lower atmosphere, it's hard to see how policy changes mainly implemented by western countries in the very recent past could fully explain this.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  12. Assuming correlation is causation... by renimar · · Score: 2

    Clearly, the increased CO2 in the atmosphere is helping close the ozone hole! Suck it, Al Gore!

    (That's how it works, right?)

    --
    In other news, Microsoft Windows users are now covered under the Americans with Disabilties Act...
  13. Meanwhile the Arctic Ozone hole by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not sure how that compare to this news

    http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/02/unprecedented-ozone-hole-opens-over-canadian-arctic/

  14. cue global warming denialists.... by crutchy · · Score: 1

    ...in 3.... 2.... 1...

    1. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Global warming is at BEST a hypothesis.

      Get back to me when its cast as a reproducible law.. and not by simply tweaking computer models to get the results you want... and make sure it goes all the way back to the planets formation... not just 100 years of questionable recorded data.

      That's how it works.. consensus is not part of it... no matter how many hack statistical only scientists clamoring for acceptance and a group hug say otherwise.

    2. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by metrometro · · Score: 1

      Global warming is at BEST a hypothesis.

      Get back to me when its cast as a reproducible law.. and not by simply tweaking computer models to get the results you want... and make sure it goes all the way back to the planets formation... not just 100 years of questionable recorded data.

      That's how it works.. consensus is not part of it... no matter how many hack statistical only scientists clamoring for acceptance and a group hug say otherwise.

      I honestly can't tell if this is satire, or just slashdot being slashdot.

    3. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What he says is true. How can you deny it? You can't measure the truth or otherwise of a hypothesis purely on the weight of grant money and paper it generates.

    4. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Global warming is at BEST a hypothesis.

      No. It's a fact proven beyond any shadow of doubt by anyone except the most ideologically blinded tools of the oil industry and idiots who have no idea how science works.

      Glaciers and sea ice are receding, drastically, all over the world. There is no room whatsoever to claim that this observation is "questionable" or the data biased, or cherry-picked.

      Now, there is certainly room for discussion whether human actions have contributed significantly to this development. But not that it exists.

    5. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by skoony · · Score: 0

      show me the proof,any proof. all i want to see is the proof,not skewered computer models.

    6. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by skoony · · Score: 0

      theres just as many glaicers expanding as are contracting. ask any one over 40 years old that has been studying glaciers all his life will tell you the ones they expect to recede are receding.the ones they expect to expand are expanding. most glaciers in northern europe have been tracked since the middle ages with predictable results.

    7. Re:cue global warming denialists.... by crutchy · · Score: 1

      "show me the proof,any proof. all i want to see is the proof,not skewered computer models."

  15. Re:Still freezing my butt off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's called "global warming", not "local warming". It's quite possible, and indeed expected, that some places will get colder as the world as whole gets warmer. In particular, collapse of certain warm-water currents in the Atlantic are likely to make Britain quite inhospitably cold if the ocean gets a little warmer. So stop being an ignorant, self-centered fool and learn about the issues before making stupid statements in public. Attitudes like yours endanger everyone.

  16. Re:Still freezing my butt off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Do you know about the gulf-stream conveyor belt ? It is the principal cause of Europe pasts warmer winters, it used to take heat from America, move to Europe, give back the heat and flow back to America. If its model is correct, its acceleration is inversely proportional to the sea temperature variation. As the sea got warmer, that heat conveying belt slowed down giving Scandinavian colder winters and Canadian east of Manitoba warmer one.

  17. Ozone hole causing too much ice for the penguins by Matt_R · · Score: 1

    Smallest in 10 years, you say?

    Here's a story blaming the ozone hole for TOO MUCH ice

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/8267243/Too-much-ice-for-Antarctic-penguins

  18. Blame it on global warming! by mschaffer · · Score: 1

    After all, what does the data say? Higher temperatures, less Antarctic ozone? Looks like a correlation, and therefore....

  19. damn ozone layer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    why don't we just nuke it like the good ole days

  20. Re:Still freezing my butt off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The reduction of ozone over the poles has little to do with global warming. It has to do with artificial CFCs emitted into the atmosphere. Different issue.

    And the predictions of global warming are not that every place in the world will get incrementally warmer. A lot of areas are predicted to get warmer, but the amount of precipitation (i.e. snow) will increase. It's called "average" global temperature for a reason. Inevitably there will be places that experience colder temperatures.

  21. CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    First of all, there never was a "hole" - a better term would be an "ozone reduction". Its cause remains unknown. There are many theories, and the one exclusively blaming CFC's is made increasingly implausible by recent research, as well as the recent ozone increase. What is known is that the government intervention in banning CFC's had some small negative impact on the quality of life of almost everyone alive today. The effect of the ban on the ozone layer, if any, won't kick in until the CFC particles already released begin to exit the atmosphere many decades from now...

    There are many natural cycles that affect this planet and this solar system, and modern science has not been around long enough to measure and fully understand all of them. However "we don't know" is not an acceptable answer to many people - they want a story that sounds good and fits their preconceived political beliefs...

    --libman

  22. Sigh by RevDisk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I hate to even point this out, because idiots will claim I am a global warming denier, climate change denier or kicker of cute puppies...

    But I really wish that the climate change folks would take a note from the whole ozone thing. CFCs and other contributory substances (ozone-depleting substances (ODS)) were proven to have an impact. CFCs were replaced with hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and other alternative solvents with minimal costs. And the problem was economically solved for the most part.

    Folks proved what the problem was (ozone depletion), what was a very significant contributor (CFCs), how everything happened (in a scientific "can be repeated, with the same results every time"), set up accurate and provable models (Single Layer Isentropic Model of Chemistry And Transport (SLIMCAT), CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere), etc), and how to economically mitigate the bad stuff by using less bad stuff. The last stage is arguably the most important. All of the climate change research and proof in the world is nice. But it doesn't mean jack if it doesn't produce economically acceptable alternatives.

    X is bad? Fine. Accurately prove how they are bad, in a way that is relatively easy to proof in a repeatable way. Gimme alternatives that are viable (ie can be realistically implemented in a reasonable manner), that are economic (preferably cheaper, but no more than 5-10% more expensive) that are effective (preferably better, but no more than 5-10% less effiicient).

    I spent time in former Soviet countries and third world countries. I'm aware of how bad pollution can be. It can be horribly nasty. I'm also not a moron, so I realize you have to be able to realistically solve the problem if you want to mitigate it. I'll bet myself $1 that I get called a climate denier, right wing puppy kicker or whatnot anyways.

    1. Re:Sigh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll bet myself $1 that I get called a climate denier, right wing puppy kicker or whatnot anyways.

       
      Nope, but you DID manage to get modded troll. I say you still win the $1.

    2. Re:Sigh by dunkelfalke · · Score: 0, Troll

      You are a denier. Because you put "economics" a.k.a short term profits first. Basically you say "If I cannot earn money polluting, fuck you".

      History is full of people like you, screwing with environment for their short term profits, leading to a disaster in long term.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    3. Re:Sigh by radtea · · Score: 4, Informative

      You are a denier. Because you put "economics" a.k.a short term profits first. Basically you say "If I cannot earn money polluting, fuck you".

      And the Lack of Reading Comprehension Award goes to the guy who wrote the above, putting words in the GP's mouth and then maligning them on the basis of that fantasy.

      It's so much easier to win arguments with imaginary opponents who can be vilified for saying outrageous things.

      With regard to economics: while it does not explain all of human behaviour, it is difficult to defend the hypothesis, beloved by Lefties in particular, that "economics doesn't matter".

      Economics matters, and it is not "putting economics first" to say this, but rather recognizing that economics imposes constraints on any solution to the problem of anthropogenic climate change. The anti-AGW community are firmly convinced that the pro-AGW community consists solely of people like you, who think that the reality of AGW is somehow justification to impose your own anti-economic agenda on the rest of the world.

      By responding as you are, you are playing exactly the role the anti-AGW community wants you to play, bolstering their support amongst the public, who will see you for what you are: a left-wing nutjob who has grabbed on to the AGW mantra as an excuse to further your political agenda, not because you care about the future of the planet (because as the GP correctly points out, any viable solution to AGW will have to take economic constraints into account, as as such people like you who deny economic constraints are important are actually an impediment to dealing with AGW.)

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    4. Re:Sigh by hairyfish · · Score: 1

      Oh dear, the guy even spelt it out for you and you still got it wrong. He's not putting economics first, he is merely stating this as a fact of human nature. Take global warming out of it and think about any solution to any problem. For any solution to work, it has to be proven to work, and it has to make economic sense. If you don't believe that then please send me all your money right now and I'll save the world for you. I promise.

    5. Re:Sigh by ankhank · · Score: 1

      > CFCs were replaced with hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) ...
      > the problem was economically solved for the most part.

      Excep that HCFC turns out to be more of a problem
      http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2007/September/25090702.asp

      HCFC Phaseout Schedule | Ozone Layer Protection - Regulatory ...
      http://www.epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/hcfc.html
      To learn more about the HCFC phaseout, including frequently asked questions, please visit this link.

      Producing HCFC-22 also produces, as a byproduct, HCF-23.

      Oops. oversight in the initial protocol? Or clever loophole-drafting?
      China gets paid for destroying HCF-23.
      And it hasn't been against the rules to produce more, to get paid more to destroy more of the stuff.
      So they ramped up HCFC-22 production instead of going with alternatives that didn't make money quite so fast.

      "China is, in fact, gaming the system today as we speak by
      producing harmful HCFC-22 for the sole reason of destroying
      HCF-23 by-product ..."
      http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg44428/html/CHRG-110hhrg44428.htm

      China was very happy with that situation, but is quite unhappy with the next step, stopping the production completely:
      http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-09/17/content_15761265.htm
      read down the text beyond the self-congratulations to the part where they say the next step is, well, very, very difficult.

      Yeah, giving up free money is always hard. Read the fine print -- more carefully ....

    6. Re:Sigh by radtea · · Score: 5, Interesting

      X is bad? Fine. Accurately prove how they are bad, in a way that is relatively easy to proof in a repeatable way. Gimme alternatives that are viable (ie can be realistically implemented in a reasonable manner), that are economic (preferably cheaper, but no more than 5-10% more expensive) that are effective (preferably better, but no more than 5-10% less effiicient).

      While I'm in agreement with this view, I'm also aware of how much messier the AGW situation is than the CFC situation was. Anything beyond "anthropogenic gases are probably adding about 0.2% (1.6 W/m**2) to the Earth's heat budget at the surface" is extremely model dependent, and models are just not that good at predicting the detailed response of such a complex system.

      I am a computational physicist, and it is very clear after digging in to climate models a bit that climate models are not written by computational physicists, who typically have dealt with much simpler systems in much better controlled (and experimentally accessible) situations, which gives us a very healthy awareness of how inadequate our simulations are at capturing anything but the gross features of reality.

      If a computational model of a radiation detector comes within 10% of reality you're generally doing pretty well, and radiation detectors of various kinds are about as simple as you can get in terms of physics.

      So anyone who claims that climate models are adequate or even particularly useful as guides to policy response is likely not tightly coupled to reality. We don't really know what areas are likely to be affected by what kind of events. Even apparently simple things like an increase in hurricane force winds, or possibly an increase in the number of hurricanes, are hotly debated. No one, to the best of my knowledge, predicted ocean acidification as a likely outcome of increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, but this is likely going to be one of the more significant impacts. And so on.

      As such, it behooves us to pursue a number of policies that won't address any specific threat, but which will a) reduce human greenhouse gas emissions and b) increase our ability to respond the climate-driven humanitarian disasters. In the former category would be nuclear power development and other green power sources, and in the latter things like increased funds put aside for international relief via existing organizations.

      These positive actions have zero political support, however: people who are beating the drums regarding AGW policy are almost uniformly putting it in terms of controls and limits and restrictions on other people, which we know from far too much history never ends well, and certainly never solves the problem it was supposedly intended to address.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    7. Re:Sigh by rastoboy29 · · Score: 4, Informative

      It has been proven beyond a *reasonable* doubt.

      The reason banning CFC's was so easy was because it was a relatively small target, and replacement technology was almost immediately available.

      The reason there is so much noise about climate is because it affects *everything* and there is no cut and dried solution available.  Entrenched interests have been pouring money into FUD on the scientists themselves for years for that reason.  And because they are suicidal, apparently...

    8. Re:Sigh by hamburger+lady · · Score: 1

      it's a different situation with climate change. the solution to using the CFCs that were destroying ozone was just to use a different set of chemicals that were already in the can anyways. it was literally the easiest environmental crisis we've ever had to deal with.

      climate change is a whole different kettle of fish. if you had any idea how insanely cheap fossil fuels have been (and still are) you wouldn't be asking for economic alternatives.

      --

      ---
      Is this the MPAA? Is this the RIAA? Is this the DMCA? I thought it was the USA!
    9. Re:Sigh by foobsr · · Score: 2, Insightful
      economics imposes constraints on any solution to the problem of anthropogenic climate change

      anthropogenic climate change imposes constraints on all solutions to the problems of economics

      FTFY

      CC.

      --
      TaijiQuan (Huang, 5 loosenings)
    10. Re:Sigh by dbIII · · Score: 1

      He's not putting economics first

      He does have it there as a hard constraint with numerical values and is using some sort of "I'm not saying ..." weasel bullshit to pretend it isn't.

      It's just using one topic to attack another when you boil it down. I don't think it's reasonable to directly compare a small system over a short time period (ozone depletion each summer) to a global system considering effects over a timespan of decades.

    11. Re:Sigh by deimtee · · Score: 1

      And you are still missing the point that a solution has to be practical. Of course economics is a hard constraint, do you think you can fix things by singing kumbaya?
      If you want to change things you need to be realistic, and economics is (amongst other things) the study of the allocation of resources.

      Also he didn't claim they were equivalent problems.
      He claimed that the ozone solutions were implemented because the science was sound, the theory was consistant, the experiments repeatable, and the solutions proposed were achievable within economic constraints.
      He then suggested that AGW proponents would do better if they aimed towards the same standards.

      --
      I'm guessing that wasn't on their radar screen...
    12. Re:Sigh by thrich81 · · Score: 1

      "CFCs were replaced with hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and other alternative solvents with minimal costs. And the problem was economically solved for the most part. " -- Not if you were to believe the wailing and crying at the time the CFC phaseouts were being discussed. It was going to be the end of the civilized world because there were "no substitutes for CFCs". We'd all lose our air conditioners and refrigerators, leading to general collapse. Exactly the same arguments were made (probably by the same people) when the phaseout of leaded gasoline was started -- "we'd have to give up the internal combustion engine", "the environuts were forcing civilization back to postindustrial times!", "Oh, the humanity!". Both of those phaseouts were conducted with minimal suffering as I recall and civilization did not collapse. I realize that fossil fuels are a bigger issue than CFCs and leaded gasoline were, but the alarmists who are crying about the economic costs of change have cried wolf at least twice now in my remembrance, they have lost credibility now because of it.

    13. Re:Sigh by thrich81 · · Score: 2

      "Excep that HCFC turns out to be more of a problem
      http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2007/September/25090702.asp [rsc.org]"
      So where in the article you linked does it say that HCFCs are more of a problem than CFCs? All I could find was the following, "They replaced the older and even more ozone-damaging chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the 1990s, but were never meant to be permanent substitutes." No matter what happens with the HCFCs, it seems we are better off without the CFCs. Going to HCFCs seems to have at least bought us more time to implement truly benign substitutes.

    14. Re:Sigh by dbIII · · Score: 1
      Please read his post again and you'll see what I mean - especially the direct comparison hidden behind the weasel bullshit that tries to pretend it isn't.

      He then suggested that AGW proponents would do better if they aimed towards the same standards.

      Which of course is a way to say they don't already have those standards and are thus not good enough - it's just insulting bullshit delivered in the style of a cowardly weasel. It's OK from a cocaine addled former DJ on Fox who gets paid to look like a fool but it's just deliberately misleading noise and not entertainment elsewhere to use such a style of dishonesty.

    15. Re:Sigh by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      And here is where you are wrong. You see, the kind of economics you and GP worship only work because they conviniently ignore most, and - by shifting production to China - even all of the externalities associated with said production and distribution. If that weren't possible, the "if I cannot make a quick buck, fuck you and your environment" economics would fail at once.

      But, alas, the modern economists are convinced that "long-term thinking" means "next quarter", not "next quarter century", and for some reason, this notion has now reached (and proselytised) the proles like you.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    16. Re:Sigh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But it doesn't mean jack if it doesn't produce economically acceptable alternatives.

      Well, trying to leave the planet as it is for my kids trumps all economics. You can't take the money with you when you die. You'll live happier w/o 50" plasma screen (just have to trust me on this one). Sustainability is the _only_ real option, short of actually leaving the planet, which would be great, but will be impossible if we kill the planet too fast.

    17. Re:Sigh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "weasel", "bullshit", "tries to pretend", "insulting bullshit", "delivered in the style of a cowardly weasel", "cocaine addled former DJ on Fox who gets paid to look like a fool", "deliberately misleading noise", "dishonesty"

      Do you see how you might not appear to be a unbiased scientific observer here...

    18. Re:Sigh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      CFCs were a relatively small problem, that was relatively cheap to solve. Climate change is a big expensive problem. There is no comparison.

      Of course you want solid irrefutable proof that doesn't rely on computational models, and of course you want cheap effective solutions. Everyone wants those things. Right now thousands and thousands of scientists and engineers are working on trying to discover new evidence and develop new solutions. Very clever people are doing clever things to try to find new ways to harness renewable energy and methods of energy storage. People are combining solar panels with sun tracking mirrors. They're inventing new methods for manufacturing solar panels. There are people working on ways to harness wind power from robotic kites. There are people working on ways to store wind energy as high pressure air using off-shore windmills that contain pistons (the plan is to keep the air in flexible bags under the water). There are people working on super efficient water electrolysis catalysts for storing energy as hydrogen. There's a team working on cheap batteries that use molten metal salts, in a kind of inverse of the aluminium smelting process. I don't even know what the state of the art is in climate science, but I'm guessing improving forecasting of the future climate is a big topic.

      People are working on it. But no-one knows if any of these things are going to pan out. No-one knows for sure what's going to happen. That's just tough luck. We're probably going to have to make some very difficult decisions in the near future, without being certain what the consequences will be. That's just life. To demand anything else is simply childish.

      Whether or not you want to admit it, there is a pretty big risk of some really terrible things happening. The climate science could all be wrong, but it's a fairly well developed area of science, with a large body of work and no major crisis going on (besides political interference). Even being conservative and saying there is only a 50:50 chance that current climate models are correct, that still gives us a massive risk of terrible disaster.

      Economic measures are not always suitable for evaluating this kind of risk. Something that has a 5% chance of causing human extinction only represents a 5% loss in expected GDP. Under economic models it makes sense to value things with a discounted time horizon, so present resources are valued above future resources. Which means something that has a 100% chance of causing human extinction in 200 years might only be valued the same as a 5% loss in today's GDP. The fact is, there's a massive difference between economic loss caused by massive investment in infrastructure and economic loss caused by widespread ongoing destruction and starvation.

      Whatever you know about pollution has very little to do with climate change. They are different issues and have different effects and human costs. Climate change is serious. We should be taking this on like a war effort, piling money into every avenue of research and constructing vast amounts of new infrastructure. Instead, we're just bumbling along, hoping there'll be a breakthrough, totally ignoring the sword over our heads.

    19. Re:Sigh by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      X is bad? Fine. Accurately prove how they are bad, in a way that is relatively easy to proof in a repeatable way. Gimme alternatives that are viable (ie can be realistically implemented in a reasonable manner), that are economic (preferably cheaper, but no more than 5-10% more expensive) that are effective (preferably better, but no more than 5-10% less effiicient).

      The second and third criteria seem a bit artificial. Why not just cost vs benefit? On economics, did you mean factoring in externalized costs? If one were to demonstrate that switching to nuclear from coal would save more money from having to deal with climate change than we'd save by sticking with coal, then the smart move to make would be to switch, unless you're a coal fired power plant owner or remarkably short-sighted. Efficiency makes even less sense to me if you're talking in terms of energy production only. If solar is a fraction of the efficiency but can still meet our needs and is the better alternative, then we should switch.

    20. Re:Sigh by RevDisk · · Score: 1

      Actually, from what chemical engineers have told me, it's only "recently" (I have no idea the specifics) that alternatives have caught up to CFCs in efficiency. Which helped contribute to higher environmental impact. If CFC alternative is 20% less efficient, that's cumulatively a LOT more energy to achieve the same cooling. Which means more CO2 from burning coal or natural gas. So, while they may have overstated the matter, banning CFCs did have an initial negative climate impact. I'm not up on leaded gas impact, but I can imagine it was similar.

      That is something to keep in mind. "If we ban X, what will happen?"

      Fossil fuels are bigger than CFCs and leaded gasoline. It's akin to saying the moon is slightly larger than the surface area of Rhode Island. "Lost credibility" means nothing. Even if the Westboro Baptist Church declares 1+1=2, they're right. That is how science works. Consensus means jack. You're either right, or wrong. Sometimes "more accurate, or less accurate". Ditching fossil fuels would have an impact on virtually every facet of our lives. That's not a matter of credibility. It's how it is. It's entirely possible to do so. Economically viable, at this particular moment? I personally have no idea. I doubt it, and would personally say a phased approach is rarely a bad idea.

    21. Re:Sigh by RevDisk · · Score: 1

      This is hilarious and sad. I do recommend on studying micro and macro economics. Short term profitable but destructive practices != economics. It is one tiny part of economics, one that I personally dislike. Most of my personal microeconomics tend to be the opposite. I am a very long term guy, it's just how I work.

      I do love how "climate denier" has become a catchphrase for anyone you dislike. I've noticed "racism" is pretty much the same thing as well. Climate changes all the bloody time. I have zero doubt humanity has some influence on it. Question is, how much of an impact and what can we realistically do about it? Those are the important parts. Until those questions can be quantitatively answered, climate change can't be handled in any serious manner. It's not a religion, where belief and faith matters above all else.

      USB storage devices have saved more trees than Earth First or Earth Liberation Front. It's fun to do "feel good" stuff that accomplishes nothing. Calling people on the interwebz "climate deniers", "evil profit makers", etc. Actually making a difference is HARD. Making superior products that are ecologically better is the key. Otherwise, you'll accomplish nothing. It's not about earning money, per se. It's about living in a civilized manner while doing your best not to ruin to the world so you can continue living in a nice place. Making a living and encouraging future developments (aka profits) is one component of it.

    22. Re:Sigh by RevDisk · · Score: 1

      Hello there!

      I'm arguing for accurate numbers so we can realistically do stuff. You can call that insulting and cowardly, tis your right. But that is how things are actually accomplished, from my experience. If I may ask, what is your preferred methodology if you don't care for the questions I asked?

      I'm actually serious. I'm curious to what flaws you see in my viewpoint of the situation.

    23. Re:Sigh by sjames · · Score: 1

      And what happens if there doesn't happen to BE a cheap fix? Kill 'em all and let God sort it out?

      It's really nice when a cheap fix is readily available, but it isn't always the case. Sometimes you can't have a pony.

      In this case though, have a look at nuclear with appropriate reprocessing.

    24. Re:Sigh by ankhank · · Score: 1

      > more of a problem
      More of a problem than they were expected to be

  23. Thankyou by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Peducah, KY, USA. Slashdot mods or mod bots may redact this comment at will. God Bless.

    1. Re:Thankyou by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ill elaborate, seeing as the bots/mods have smiled upon me this time:
      The Uranium enrichment plant in Peducah, Kentucky, is allegedly a large emitter of Hydroflurocarbons, as they use this substance to produce Enriched Uranium via the Uranium Hexaflouride method.
      The Iranians on the other hand are trying to utilise a much more environmentally safe method that uses high speed zippe type centrifuges. Agreed I don't think it is a good idea a Holocaust denier (denying something that actually happened in the 1940's as opposed to denying something like Global Warming or Evolution) gets his hands on Weapons grade material, but you have to hand it to them, they are not messing up the ozone layer at least.
      If your as depressed about the effects of a real environmental disaster like Nuclear Contamination throughout the world as I am, you should go and check out the page on the Agua Caliente Solar Project. It's a start for 'real' clean energy.

  24. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    yeah my air conditioner does not freeze my nose hairs anymore, my quality of life is ruined.

  25. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you had asthma, and they made your aerosol medicine illegal (Primatine Mist) your quality of life would definitely be reduced. Because you spouted such malinformed arrogance on Slashdot, my quality of life is definitely reduced. Way to go. You wouldn't by chance be part of that 47% would you?

  26. The return of McDonald's styrofoam boxes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is great news, once Macca's brings them back my kids will be able to play with all the great styrofoam happy meal boxes. Looking forward to those UFO boxes.

  27. No it'[s not! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "...The decrease in size of the hole is probably the result of reduction in the concentration of CFCs..."

    We know little if anything about the actual reactions in the stratosphere. It's expensive to monitor them. SO we don't.

    If you want to know why CFCs are banned, take a look at the dates on the freon patent. You will find that it was just about to expire, and DuPont were just about to lose a very profitable chemical division. Suddenly, they switched round to supporting a ban, and then the world couldn't make Freon at all. We had to use less effective substitutes, and you won't be surprised to find that DuPont had all those tied up with nice new patents. Applied for a couple of years before DuPont's sudden reversal. Big Chemistry working with Big Green? Where have I seen that before?

  28. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Eunuchswear · · Score: 2

    zow, probably the best collection of reliable sources ever quoted.

    Seriously - reason? mises? redstate!

    --
    Watch this Heartland Institute video
  29. Eek! The sky is rising, the sky is rising! by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    This is going to upset the alarmists.

    1. Re:Eek! The sky is rising, the sky is rising! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is going to upset the alarmists.

      s/upset/validate/

      After decades of pressure from "alarmists" government and industry ended up doing what the "alarmists" wanted, and the problem has stopped getting worse and now appears to be slowly fixing itself.

      The only ones who are likely to be upset would be the fatalists, who feel that there's no point in activism because you can't fix anything.

  30. Re:So tell me... by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It depends on the topic really. Not skeptical at all about the Holocaust, no, mostly because my Grandfather was at Burgen Belsen in 1945 with the British Army. And attempts to lump everyone who is skeptical of one thing together with anyone who's skeptical about anything is just a poor debating tactic.

  31. Ozone is a Greenhouse gas by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The smaller the ozone hole over the antarctic, the more infrared is reflected back to the Earth and not into space. So people who accuse others of being climate change deniers, should look to mirror and do not deny that the Montreal Protocol is a major factor in global warming.

  32. Why does it have to 'ozone' or 'climate change'? by fygment · · Score: 2

    Reducing CFC's was a good thing regardless of ozone holes, etc. They are toxic and bad for the environment, period, ozone holes or no.
    Reducing the carbon footprint is also a good thing as it means using things efficiently vice producing so much waste, regardless of climate effects.
    Why do we need a 'spin' to somehow make it real?
    Inefficiency leads to waste leads to rapid depletion leads to the disappearance of valuable resources.

    --
    "Consensus" in science is _always_ a political construct.
  33. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So only the sources that agree with you are "reliable"?

    Way to keep yourself inside a bubble of socialist bias!

    I had the same problem myself when I was younger. Going to a "public" (government-controlled) school and listening to gov-licensed media has this effect on most people. To my lasting shame, I voted for Al Gore in 2000, and even the Green Party candidate in 2004. But I did not remain ignorant forever. I've researched all sides of each issue, from economics to environmentalism, and gradually came to understand that most of what I was taught was inaccurate.

    I suggest you spend more time studying the facts and less time rooting for your team, right or wrong. It won't be easy. Millions of people in the academia, media, and even big business benefit from gov interventionism, and (perhaps even subconsciously) are driven to perpetuate certain myths that maintain and expand gov power. As religious and nationalist myths start to lose their power, this power-hungry class is seeking out new, global bogeymen to use as enemies, with an environmental crisis constituting the perfect excuse. By scaring the public they can get popular support to do whatever they want - without rigorous scientific proof, and without a dispassionate cost-benefit analysis.

    An honest person should have no value higher than the pursuit of the objective scientific truth.

    So, without ad hominem attacks, can you dispute the factual accuracy of my statements?

    --libman

  34. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I never said "ruined"; I said that "the government intervention in banning CFC's had some small negative impact on the quality of life". You have less choices in buying air conditioners, refrigerators, certain medical devices, etc - which means you either end up paying more or getting less. The same restriction applies to companies that produce / transport / sell refrigerated food, cool server farms, use industrial degreasing solvents, use fire suppression safety systems, etc, etc, etc - which means slightly higher prices for the consumers.

    This is just one example of a government regulation damaging market optimization, and, when combined with all others, they have a great effect in total. You may be able to afford paying more for stuff, but that means you have less money left over to direct to more preferable ends (like perhaps philanthropy or environmental conservation). And many people in this world simply cannot afford higher prices, which has a much greater impact on their quality of life.

    --libman

  35. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by hamburger+lady · · Score: 1

    wait, redstate isn't a science blog?

    --

    ---
    Is this the MPAA? Is this the RIAA? Is this the DMCA? I thought it was the USA!
  36. Re:Why does it have to 'ozone' or 'climate change' by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You are wrong. CFCs are chemically stable, non-toxic and non-flammable.
    There only so many permutations possible in chemistry, and CFCs are truly a wonder of chemistry.
    Alternatives are only partially up to be replacements, and are more than often corrosive, toxic, unstable.
    Banning CFCs was at best a big mistake, if not outright a crime.
    It is inevitable that CFCs prohibition is ended at some point, because it simply makes no sense at all.

  37. the Smallest Ozone Hole In a Decade by Phizzle · · Score: 1

    I believe the correct scientific term is The Global Puckering!

    --
    I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.
  38. Re:Still freezing my butt off by LordLucless · · Score: 1

    Had a really hot summer? Boy, this global warming has gotten bad, it's going to wipe out humanity in a decade.

    Terrible winter? Man, I'm tired of all those global warming alarmists - I wish it WAS warming!

    BTW, it's called "climate change" now, so you can blame both events on it.

    --
    Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
  39. Re:Most probably... by smellotron · · Score: 1

    The Ozone layer itself is a red herring, since technically it is not a protection from, but the result of the interaction between solar UV radiation and dioxygen molecules in the upper atmosphere. Ozone is an unstable compound, which disappears naturally in the absence of incoming solar UV.

    I am not a particle physicist, but your explanation of the ozone layer sounds like a "canary in a coal mine" and not a red herring. If the energy from UV radiation is transferred to oxygen high in the atmosphere, that means that less of that energy is hitting the surface of our planet. If the O_3 content drops, that probably implies some combination of reduced UV energy input and reduced energy absorption. The former is fine, but the latter means more high-energy particles will reach habitable altitudes.

  40. Doh! by mevets · · Score: 1

    | It's so much easier to win arguments with imaginary opponents who can be vilified for saying outrageous things.

    | ... beloved by Lefties in particular, that "economics doesn't matterâ.

    Thanks for the great example of the strawman argument.

    1. Re:Doh! by roninmagus · · Score: 1

      I see that the game of identifying logical fallacies instead of actual debate is still being played these days.

    2. Re:Doh! by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Eh, wenn the strawman arguments go against "left wing nutjobs" like me, they aren't strawman, they are downright patriotic, didn't you know?

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
  41. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

    The problem isn't that they are rightwing nutjob sites (though they are), it's that they're politcal sites.

    Why go to political sites for information about science?

    --
    Watch this Heartland Institute video
  42. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 1

    [wikipedia.org][redstate.com][reason.com][mises.org]

    If your best source is Wikipedia, you should re-evaluate where your get your information. Try Google Scholar for a start. Libertarians may have a good take on liberty, but, sadly, many libertarian-leaning organisations have shown a disdain for science that does not jibe with their politics. I would like to be free of gravity, sometimes, or of the relationship between calories in and body weight. But no matter how much I like freedom, we ignore physical reality at our (or, in some cases, our children's) peril.

    --

    Stephan

  43. Re:Reducing CFC's was a good thing regardless by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just as eliminating using sulphurous coal, especially in old power plants. Fortunately, we can replace those coal plants with more economical natural gas plants. We already have enough gas online or nearly complete to be self-sufficient for at least a century.

    Those coal plants often produce higher levels of lead, ozone, etc. They probably cause health problems for some people.

    "The EPA estimates that more than 65%, or over 13 million tons per year, of SO2 production in the U.S. comes from electric utilities,[2] 93 percent of which is produced by coal power plants.[3] In China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, approximately 22.5 million tons of sulfur were released in 2004, and over 30% of the country now experiences acid rainfall."

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Sulfur_dioxide_and_coal

    We don't have to get into any arguments over AGW to recognize the problems of coal plants worldwide. The U.S., by happy accident, will produce far less of this kind of pollution in coming years but the Chinese will more than take up the slack, to their detriment.

    We should do the things today that we can all agree on and that the evidence is so clear about. Especially since natural gas power plants are so much cheaper and we needed to replace those old plants anyway. It's a complete no-brainer.

  44. I don't doubt.... by Martin+S. · · Score: 2

    That climate change deniers will use this to argue there is no such thing as 'global warming'.

    When the lesson to take from this news is that we can reverse the negative impact of our actions on our environment with decisive action.

  45. I call bullshit by AndyKron · · Score: 1

    I call bullshit on their saying the CFC ban has anything to do with it. Let's wait for it to get bigger next year.

  46. Re:Why does it have to 'ozone' or 'climate change' by berbo · · Score: 2

    You are wrong. CFCs are chemically stable, non-toxic and non-flammable. There only so many permutations possible in chemistry, and CFCs are truly a wonder of chemistry. Alternatives are only partially up to be replacements, and are more than often corrosive, toxic, unstable.

    You are correct on the facts.

    Banning CFCs was at best a big mistake, if not outright a crime. It is inevitable that CFCs prohibition is ended at some point, because it simply makes no sense at all.

    You are totally wrong on the conclusions. Long term destruction of the ozone would have been a disaster.

  47. Krill are rejoicing by Squidlips · · Score: 1

    So now what BS excuse are commercial fishermen going to use to explain the collapse of the krill population. As usual, they are loathe to admit that it is overfishing, instead coming up with fanciful explanations such as the ozone hole to explain the collapse of the krill and the devastation of the Antarctic ecosystems....

  48. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The effect of the ban on the ozone layer, if any, won't kick in until the CFC particles already released begin to exit the atmosphere many decades from now...

    Emphasis added.

  49. Hurray for the Ozone! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Too bad all that ice is still fucked.

  50. cfr's and treaty by skoony · · Score: 0

    well i'm sorry to have to say cfrs have nothing to do with the ozone. made made cfrs never got that high enough to reach the holes. since the treaty the only place on earth not using cfr's is the usa. its readally available and used everywhere else in the world,and in greater quantities. these treatys are not for the world,they are to cripple the american economy.

    1. Re:cfr's and treaty by Anonymous+Freak · · Score: 1

      You're right, the US Code of Federal Regulations (CFRs,) only affect the USA, and had no impact on the ozone layer (well, except the one banning CFCs, see below.)

      Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs,) on the other hand, have had a scientifically-demonstrated effect on the ozone layer, and have been banned essentially world-wide since 1994.

      --
      Another non-functioning site was "uncertainty.microsoft.com."
      The purpose of that site was not known.
  51. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If your best source is Wikipedia, you should re-evaluate where your get your information. Try Google Scholar for a start.

    I haven't provided any "sources" - I've provided accessible starting points. Wikipedia is a good central repository of knowledge (with some socialist bias, but I'm willing to look past that in most cases). If you don't believe Wikipedia's claim that there is no literal "hole" in the ozone layer (something that I brought up only because the word "hole" was so emphasized in the story title and some earlier comments), you can look at the more scholarly reference materials that Wikipedia links to.

    The conceptual points I am making are not very complex... You need to know a system before you can conclude if it is out of balance. You need to objectively consider all possibilities as to the cause. Before interfering with a system, you need to evaluate the costs and risks of your actions. Before attributing an effect to a specific cause, you need to take into account things like the time-frame of the processes that the said cause triggers. Before accepting a research institution's recommendations as "The Word Of Science", you need to scrutinize both their data-gathering methods as well as any potential biases that could affect how the data is processed and interpreted.

    After studying environmentalist claims for many years, I have found a tremendous amount of political bias in all involved institutions - not only government-funded ones, but some corporate / non-profit ones as well. People don't study to become climatologists because they think climatology is boring and climate will have very little impact on humanity! An environmental crisis turns those people from zeros to heroes; without it they may end up teaching a fifth grade science class instead! Many businesses support unnecessary government interventionism, because they have positioned themselves to profit from it. And of course the government itself is literally dying for a global climate crisis to justify its on-going existence, and create many opportunities for expanding its power.

    Libertarians may have a good take on liberty, but, sadly, many libertarian-leaning organizations have shown a disdain for science that does not jibe with their politics. I would like to be free of gravity, sometimes, or of the relationship between calories in and body weight. But no matter how much I like freedom, we ignore physical reality at our (or, in some cases, our children's) peril.

    My politics are based on reason. I used to be a "left-winger", but had to change my position over many years in light of irrefutable facts.

    And yet, no matter how many facts I bring up, all that I typically get in response are appeals to authority...

    How many "expert" bishops and rabbis and imams believe in God is not a valid argument for God's existence!

    --libman

  52. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 1

    You need to know a system before you can conclude if it is out of balance. You need to objectively consider all possibilities as to the cause. Before interfering with a system, you need to evaluate the costs and risks of your actions.

    You mean like the careful evaluation we did before dumping CFCs into the atmosphere, and the one we did before digging up fossil fuels and burning them like there is no tomorrow? Or the one we do before we all send all our cattle onto the common grazing ground?

    Science is not perfect, but it has very good self-correcting measures. I'm impressed if you are able to independently understand the CFC/Ozone relationship, as well as the complexities of climate change. But if you do, why do you point to crappy political sites which have no scientific value at all?

    Before accepting a research institution's recommendations as "The Word Of Science", you need to scrutinize both their data-gathering methods as well as any potential biases that could affect how the data is processed and interpreted.

    But science does not rely on the word of a single researcher or a single research institution. Science is a collaborative effort, with many different actors cross-checking, verifying, and, where possible, refuting their respective results. It is not perfect, but it is, to a high degree, self-correcting.

    And of course the government itself is literally dying for a global climate crisis to justify its on-going existence, and create many opportunities for expanding its power.

    "The government" actually is many different governments, which, in many areas compete. Moreover, we have had governments in all advanced societies for the last 5000 years or so - basically, since we had advanced societies. It hardly needs to "justify its ongoing existence".

    My politics are based on reason.

    Does your reason tell you that to substantially engage in any single field of science, you typically need a long, expensive, and arduous education? How do you know that your "reason" is sound? Or at least sounder than that of hundreds of talented people who often spend years or lifetimes trying to discover the nature of reality?

    --

    Stephan

  53. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There ya go:

    "The effect of the [Chloro-Fluoro-Carbon] ban on the ozone layer, if any, won't kick in until the CFC particles already released begin to exit the atmosphere many decades from now..."

    THE ban referred to in the previous sentence. And later in the same sentence. The only ban mentioned up to that point.

    My bad for assuming that my readers can read above 4th grade level...

    (OK, some of my sentences do require college-level reading skills... I can't help it - that's what happens to your brain when you listen to Tolstoy's audio-books while writing a perl script that generates lisp... But that particular sentence was very simple.)

    Now, do you have anything constructive to add to the conversation? Anything at all?

    You haven't even yet mentioned that Ayn Rand got Social Security checks - that'll really address the points I've presented...

    --libman

  54. Re:So tell me... by publiclurker · · Score: 1

    so, basically, anything that you believe is fact, and everything that you don't is a conspiracy. and there is nothing to debate here son. Just nut cases like you trying to pretend you have a legitimate basis for your BS.

  55. Re:So tell me... by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 1

    No, I didn't say it was a conspiracy. I just think it's wrong, that's all. Your abuse doesn't really help your argument here.

  56. You know what you did - but here it is for others by dbIII · · Score: 1

    The insulting and cowardly bit is the "Fred isn't a wife beater - maybe George can learn from him" style bullshit - but of course you know that since it was obviously intentional. You've taken something good and are merely using it as a blunt instrument to push party dogma.
    Another bit is bringing in arguments about unknown economic costs of unknown solutions as an excuse to avoid trying to identify problems - moving the goalposts to make it impossible to justify in economic terms because costing is about twenty steps down the track. You consider economic factors after you've got a clear list of options you can work out costs on, not when you are still working out the problems.

    The real icing on the cake is casting yourself as a victim right at the start so any refutation of your insulting bullshit comes across as bullying. What a class act you are. What would your parents think? Call me a bully if you like, but at least I'm not trying to mislead people here just to shove a side effect of blind tribalism style politics down their throats. So the party line is now "experts are not experts if they are in field X" - what do you do if your field suddenly becomes unpopular with the party? Climate science is not my field but the arguments used to pretend it's not a science can be applied to just about profession that the party wants to scapegoat.

  57. Re:You know what you did - but here it is for othe by RevDisk · · Score: 1

    Well, I actually appreciate you winning me that dollar. I knew someone would scream their head off that because I want to intelligently make decisions based on yanno, science and whatnot that I'd be a no-good darn puppy kicking climate denier. Despite the fact that I haven't kicked any puppies and I believe humans do impact the environment. Instead of arguing from a position of emotions, some folks (myself included) would like numbers so sensible decisions could be made. You used insults and personal attacks instead of logic and reason. That is the problem, and that is what will hold back real solutions.

    Feel free to continue. Tis your right to an opinion. Just remember you will alienate folks, and rightly make them question the validity of your side. Which is a shame, because as I previously said, I've seen how horribly bad that insanely lax environmental policies can be. People dumping trash into the same water sources they get their drinking water from. Burning coal with no filtering. Dumping chemicals into the ground. The Soviets were not down with taking care of the planet. It was bad, and will take decades to even partially mitigate.

    Nothing will change until a) enough folks care to improve things and b) we know how to actually improve things. B is equally important. Without valid and accurate results, we will be flailing around in the dark. At best, we waste a lot of money, time and effort with mild and inefficient gains. At worst, we actually make the situation worse.

  58. Re:You know what you did - but here it is for othe by dbIII · · Score: 1

    I knew someone would scream their head off

    Look kid, saying "I know people will get upset at this" first is no excuse for insulting lies later even if you've seen such bad behaviour on Fox.
    This site is going way downhill with such idiots spewing political propaganda using techniques out of their party playbook instead of actually using their brains for something useful. If I wanted to read an anti-science site there's plenty of other places I can go so I'd rather not have such bullshit here.
    You've used the ozone issue as nothing but a trojan horse to push your own political agenda - that is an insult to the readers here that prefer to read something better than things excreted from the arse end of the batshit insane wing of US politics.

  59. Re:10 year cycle? by Etdashou · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure why your post is tagged -1, but yes 2012 seems like 2002.

  60. Re:CFC ban yet another case of jumping to conclusi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You need to know a system before you can conclude if it is out of balance. You need to objectively consider all possibilities as to the cause. Before interfering with a system, you need to evaluate the costs and risks of your actions.

    You mean like the careful evaluation we did before dumping CFCs into the atmosphere...

    Use of CFC's and banning CFC's are two very different things. All human action can potentially have unintended consequences - if we had to prove that everything is safe beforehand then no action would be possible. If any action does cause verifiable harm, then this harm can be calculated and the transgressor be made to pay for his liabilities, but presumption of innocence is absolutely essential - civilization is utterly impossible without it!

    Government aggression, on the other hand, can only be justified when it is absolutely positively unavoidable.

    ...and the one we did before digging up fossil fuels and burning them like there is no tomorrow?

    Your jab at burning fossil fuels ("like there is no tomorrow") is completely unfounded. Fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas) are the most accessible dense sources of energy that the human civilization could get at the start of the Industrial Revolution, which is the cause of countless benefits that we enjoy today. Before fossil fuels, the most common sources of energy were burning wood or manure, whale oil, draft animals, and other primitive sources of energy that were significantly dirtier and/or significantly more scarce. Without fossil fuels, you and I would probably be illiterate peasants involved in subsistence agriculture, and our lives, as well as the lives of our children, would be "nasty, brutish, and short" - until some viable energy source for industrialization could be found. Given the decrease in mortality / increase in population that was only made possible as the result of the Industrial Revolution, without fossil fuels there'd be "no tomorrow" for the vast majority of people alive today!

    And, having gone past this stepping stone where fossil fuels are irreplaceable, fossil fuels will fall out of use by "tomorrow", the same way we no longer use horses and whale oil lamps today. We could have been very close to that already if not for the hippies who've sabotaged nuclear energy... and the warmongers -- Hitler, Stalin, as well as Truman, and their successors -- who've cast nuclear science in such a murderous light...

    Increasing natural production of CO2 and other gases by about 4% (for a blink of an eye on the scale of this planet) is a very, very small price to pay for advancing the human civilization! As the result of this temporary increase, human beings can do things that nothing else in the known universe can accomplish, leaving this planet (and this solar system, and beyond) in a much better shape than we found them! On this planet alone we can plant farms, aid natural selection of plants to increase their productivity by several orders of magnitude, irrigate the deserts, build vast gardens floating on oceans, erect solar-concentration greenhouses that can grow bananas in Antarctica, and increase absorption of CO2 so much that it becomes a scarce commodity!

    Or the one we do before we all send all our cattle onto the common grazing ground?

    I (and other libertarians / pro-market philosophers) are fighting to prevent the tragedy of the commons, which governments tend to create. When it comes to environmental issues, emerging pollution-monitoring technologies can do much to make pollution a Property Rights issue, with no government intervention required. If over a billion people can maintain active accounts on one social networking site, the