NASA: Huge Freshwater Loss In the Middle East
dstates writes with news from NASA about the state of available water in the Middle East. From the NASA article: "'GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage in the Tigris and Euphrates river basins, which currently have the second fastest rate of groundwater storage loss on Earth, after India,' said Jay Famiglietti, principal investigator of the study and a hydrologist and professor at UC Irvine. 'The rate was especially striking after the 2007 drought. Meanwhile, demand for freshwater continues to rise, and the region does not coordinate its water management because of different interpretations of international laws.'" dstates adds:
"Water is a huge global security issue. To understand the middle east, you need to understand that the Golan Heights provides a significant amount of the water used in Israel. Focusing on conflicts and politics means that huge volumes of valuable water are being wasted in the Middle East, and this will only exacerbate future conflicts. Water is a serious issue between India and China. And then there is Africa. U.S. food exports are in effect exporting irrigation water drawn from the Ogallala aquifer. Fracking trades water for energy, and lack of water limits fracking in many parts of th world. Think about it."
It would be nice to think that a regional water shortage would pull these countries together to solve a mutual problem.
And I've recently been in the market for the London Bridge; have one for sale?
Someone needs to convert all that oil into water. Now THAT would be a miracle!
Yeah, I know it sounds stupid but Saddam Hussein drained 7,700 sq miles just to try to flush out people during the first gulf war. Before that the British had tried to drain all that fresh water out of there to stop the breeding of mosquitoes. Which, in the near future, is going to be looked back upon with disgust.
I don't think people yet understand or truly appreciate how much destruction they can bring to ecosystems. I wish conservation was given more respect than treating advocates like tree hugging hippies that have no clue about industry and economy. The area between these two rivers was once so lush and full of life that it was thought to be the origin of the Garden of Eden myth.
My work here is dung.
Quite a bit of Israel's water consumption is already either from desalination (domestic) or recycled (agriculture) water. It created quite a spike in the water prices, but otherwise greatly increased Israel's water reserves (the Kineret, as well as a couple of big underground reservoirs, one of them shared with the Palestinians).
Shachar
We knew we'd reach this point inevitably. Earth is finite, and humanity keeps reproducing.
Now we've hit the point where resources are limited. By the rules of nature, this means we're going to fight it out and someone's going to hoard the resources. They will then outreproduce others and replace them.
A game changer could be a nanofilter that desalinates water, but that could make the problem worse. If every nation on earth was able to keep overpopulating, the resulting land clashes could be catastrophic.
In the meantime, take careful notice of where you are. You want to be able to tell your grandchildren (or fellow Mars base refugees) where you were when the water wars began.
In other words... (NRSFW)
Ok. Seriously. There is a problem, but there are solutions too. Water conflicts have been around for a long time now in the Middle East since the beginning of civilization tiself.
4500 years ago, the control of irrigation canals vital to survival was the source of conflict between the states of Umma and Lagash in the ancient Middle East. 2700 years ago, Assurbanipal, King of Assyria from 669 to 626 B.C., seized control of wells as part of his strategic warfare against Arabia. In the modern era, the Jordan River Basin has been the scene of a wide variety of water disputes. In the 1960s, Syria tried to divert the headwaters of the Jordan away from Israel, leading to air strikes against the diversion facilities. The 1967 war in the Middle East resulted in Israel winning control of all of the headwaters of the Jordan as well as the groundwater of the West Bank. In these cases, water was certainly an important factor in both pre- and post-1967 border disputes.
But contrast this to cases in Africa, like the Okavango delta (the world's largest inland delta) which through a negotiation by Angola, Botswana and Namibia has received a fresh lease of life. I think the key is how likely countries are to negotiate rather than go to war. The current Middle East does not seem like a place where cooperation can or will replace conflict.
Just like our shortage of oil has pulled the west together.
i give some back to the world every few hours
Doesn't rain much in the middle of a desert and there are these things called "droughts" you have to worry about...
If you use fresh water faster than nature can replenish it, you're going to have a shortage. The fact that fresh water reservoirs are decreasing is a sure sign that water is being used faster than it is being replenished... so you either reduce usage (start with waste), supplement supply (desalinization, massive aqueduct construction, etc), or suffer drought.
=Smidge=
Even ten years ago it was getting obvious that the main problem we'll face this century isn't energy it's water. People worry about cheap energy but cheap or even availibility of food should be the bigger concern. In the US we won't face a lack of water but it'll get expensive and food prices are likely to double and could triple or more in adjusted dollars. If you're spending a $100 a week what happens when that's $200 or $300? Some families I'm sure the number is already $200 or more a week. They'll face $400 to $600 food bills. That's $1,600 to $2,400 a month. It'll equal or exceed their mortgage. That was mostly from droughts and higher chemical prices. If the water used to irrigate those crops is polluted then the prices could be much higher. We can simply spend more of our cash on food. The third world will starve.
It is renewable just not at the rate that it is being used. In any case, I think it is likely we will find ways to cheaply desalinate ocean water before the threat of massive death by dehydration is imminent. After all, necessity is the mother of invention. Also, grey water systems would probably become more culturally acceptable as water prices increased. Here is one interesting reverse osmosis technology that is being researched using graphene.
Also, lord knows that people will not want to drink recycled water.
Call it Brawndo(TM) and they won't be able to drink enough of it.
The technical issue of distribution (and to a lesser degree storage) is the issue for many of the water problems.
This is not really a technical issue. It is more of an economic policy issue. Here in California, farmers receive subsidies, and subsidized water, to grow water intensive crops like rice and cotton. If you remove the subsidies, farmers will switch to crops and irrigation practices that actually make sense, and the "water shortage" will disappear. The problem in the Middle East is similar. For instance, Saudi Arabia pays huge subsidies to domestic wheat farmers, when for a fraction of the cost they could just import wheat.
Oh, you mean like the GCC? :) Now, it's a long way from finished, but it's what you asked for.
The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a political and economic union of the Arab states bordering the Persian Gulf and located on or near the Arabian Peninsula, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. Jordan and Morocco have been invited to join the council.
On 6 March 2012, the six members of the GCC announced that the Gulf Cooperation Council would be evolving from a regional bloc to a confederation, in possible response to Arab democratic unrest and increased Iranian influence in the region.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperation_Council_for_the_Arab_States_of_the_Gulf
Extracting energy requires clean water.
Everything and everybody needs clean fresh water.
Basically, no matter what we do, we will always be on a negative slope in terms of water conservation.
Also, lord knows that people will not want to drink recycled water.
Also, lord knows that people will not want to drink recycled water.
Almost all water is recycled. I am actually curious what percentage of the water the average person drinks came from bodily fluids of another human being of the past or present.
Weather patterns carry evaporated water off the oceans and over land, where it can fall as rain or snow. If the rain falls on the ocean, or on the shore running back into the sea, it doesn't replenish inland reservoirs. If a winter is very mild, less polar water will be frozen in place, meaning the snowmelt won't be enough to keep the rivers full all summer. The evaporation process is also the natural desalinization process, making rainwater the most critical supplier of freshwater. That's why droughts and global patterns like El Niño and El Niña so important.
The overall amount of water on the planet is (mostly) constant, bet the amount of accessible freshwater is a tiny fraction of it, and is highly dependent on the weather and the rate of consumption.
John
Water that is absorbed by the ground and isn't directed into aquifers or similar structures is effectively lost. The rest is lost to the ocean or to evaporation. Granted, you could desalinate the ocean, but then the question becomes what to do with the leftover material, which is an environmental issue unto itself.
You sell it, duh!
Have you priced Sea Salt lately?
We still have operating salt ponds aorund the San Francisco Bay. Often easily identified by their giant piles of salt. Now if they trapped the water evaporated it would be a Win-Win.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
I watched the documentary "Ice Pirates" back in the 80s. It shows a far future without much water, and people turning to piracy to get it. I bet they never knew how quickly we'd be getting to that point.
Oh and Bruce Vilanch.
You can live without oxygen for 3 minutes, on average, if not a bit longer.
You can live without water for 3 days, depending on the environment.
You can live without food for 3 weeks, but in the case of Americans more like 3 months.
You can live without gasoline forever.
Now, can any of you bright people guess the order of importance of the above resources ?
There's not an oil well or refinery within a thousand miles from me.
Somehow I doubt that. Where do you live?
Not that it matters. For the US, water usage is over twenty thousand times greater than oil usage. Oil, not gasoline, which accounts for only a fraction of oil usage. That ratio is probably higher for areas that use less gasoline per capita (which is nearly everywhere outside the US).
Do you think there would be plenty of gasoline if everyone used even a hundred times more, let alone twenty thousand times more? Could you imagine the infrastructure that would be required? Do you honestly think that there are enough sources of fresh water to import from, assuming you had all the infrastructure and all the energy you needed to distribute it?
Do you know what the term "false equivalence" means?
=Smidge=
This is an urban problem.
City folks give me a hard time about living in the country, but I pump my water from a hole in the ground and then I dump it back into the ground when I'm done with it. Bacteria eat up all my poo, and the cycle begins again. Call it the ultimate recycling.
Works pretty well until you cram a whole bunch of people into a little space.
For desalination and filtering plants, it seems one of the bigger obstacles is energy. So if we had cheap (renewable) energy, we could also have more abundant potable water .
Let's hurry up and evolve to live off salt water. Go forth, and have sex with sweaty people.
Foregoing moderation to point this out: They do just dump the brine back in the ocean in some places. Where that's done, you get huge zones where nothing lives, because the algae at the bottom of the food chain usually can't live in such radically different salinity than they evolved in. This results in blooms of exotic algae, which tends to produce toxins - think red tide - when exposed to agricultural runoff. Fishermen are usually just run out of town, and if there was a commercial fishery, or the place was popular with out-of-town anglers, you've just killed the jobs involved with both of those.
Since biological processes impact coastal erosion, you may or may not also have to worry about your coastline receding, too - that depends mostly on how lucky you get, I think, but I have no data handy.
Any beef with each other? Did you miss anything? Yes, absolutely! :)
There's certainly the external threat from Iran, and the Shi'a population in many of the countries are less than happy with their Sunni rulers. Did I mention Iran? They're quite protective of Shi'as; be it during the recent uprising in Bahrain or the current war in Yemen [on Saudi Arabia's border]. There's always the threat of homegrown terrorists who wish to establish a theocratic state (Sunni). Saudi Arabia has been battling its own extremists for years now. Iraq already attacked Kuwait once and wanted to move on Saudi Arabia. Today Iraq is mostly a threat because of instability.
However you seem to have missed the real point of the GCC's plan; to come together and create a confederation for economic and social development. They're not banding together because of threats - they're planning ahead. How long will the oil last? What do they live off afterwards? They have to develop their economies, industries, educate and train the population and be less reliant on foreign workers [from Asia and the West].
As for India and Pakistan, that's not their problem as those are Asian countries. Israel is obviously not loved by the GCC countries.
Also, lord knows that people will not want to drink recycled water.
Which is funny, given that we're already drinking recycled dinosaur urine. Plus many people drink urine directly. It's called beer.
And no, that is not a stab at American beer producers. Alcohol == yeast urine.
"I'm not sure I like the fugnutish tone you used in your post!" -RogL (608926)-
And if you are willing to pay $5/gallon water won't be a problem either.
People already regularly pay more than that. Willingly, without a second thought, while bitching about paying $3-4/gal for gas. They even do it when the water is freely available out of nearby taps and water fountains, thinking it's somehow cleaner, purer, or from a mountain spring like the label on the bottle says.
Water that is absorbed by the ground and isn't directed into aquifers or similar structures is effectively lost. The rest is lost to the ocean or to evaporation. Granted, you could desalinate the ocean, but then the question becomes what to do with the leftover material, which is an environmental issue unto itself.
You sell it, duh!
Have you priced Sea Salt lately?
We still have operating salt ponds aorund the San Francisco Bay. Often easily identified by their giant piles of salt. Now if they trapped the water evaporated it would be a Win-Win.
These ponds are intended to collect salt, and the water is lost. You can't use a pond for desalination on an industrial scale*. One common method is to boil the water in a partial vacuum to obtain vapor, and discard the brine. Brine's boiling temperature increases the saltier it gets, so at some point it becomes uneconomical to extract the water. Plus transporting brine is easier than bulk damp salt- you just pump it. You could then put the brine in a pond and let nature run its course, but the amount of land required would probably be prohibitive since desalination on useful scales is BIG. It is much easier and cheaper to just pump the brine back to the sea and deal with the environmentalist complaints. Maybe in the future regulations will be stricter but the places that need this water the most are the kind of places that won't care about a saltier ocean.
Incidentally, most desalination processes use large amounts of energy, so that is why the easier water is used up first.
*you can desalinate using a pond or other small body of water on very small scales, but this is not economical on large scales. It is done in survival situations however.
Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.
I've always been curious about water. Does the amount of water we have today, equal the amount of water from the when the dinosaurs lived? While I know we can run out of freshwater in areas, does that freshwater all end up in the ocean and other parts of the world? Or can it evaporate into space? My guess is no, water cannot achieve escape velocity.
21st Century Renaissance Man
Most areas of the US you can collect enough rain water from your roof, providing you don't have a drought like we did last summer. For instance in my area, (I made up the square ft of an average roof around 200 sq ft, not sure how accurate this is) I could gather about 70,000 gallons of water. This is based on 50 square inches of average rainfall in a year. I really need to stop renting and start buying a house and put up some rain barrels.
21st Century Renaissance Man
Teddy was an avid hunter. Hunters are, without question, the most conservation minded people I know. I realize it's common to think of them as the big bad hunters killing animals but anyone who knows anything about hunting understands it is much much more than that. Teddy understood that well.
Modern day tree huggers? Not so much....
Because the people would complain that the wells of some poor person 100 miles from where they live whom they never met were being contaminated with salt water now too.
Out of modpoints but really liked a post? 1BDkF6TtmmeZ3yqXbz9yhdYVqRYnwFoXDj
And if you are willing to pay $5/gallon water won't be a problem either.
People already regularly pay more than that. Willingly, without a second thought
No, they really do not pay more. You see, water usage is not for drinking. Water usage is for,
1. agriculture (irrigation)
2. irrigation of stupid lawns - that is only a problem in few parts of the world.
3. industrial applications (eg. mining, steel production, consumer goods, etc.)
4. personal usage, like washing yourself.
5. distant last place is actual drinking of water.
You can pay $1/day for drinking water. You can't pay $0.10/litre if you want to keep yourself clean. And irrigation? Give me a break. Anything more than a few pennies per kiloton of water (millions of liters) is unsustainable for agriculture.
No water for agriculture? No food. No food? War. Which means less water. Which means more war. Simple as that.
This is a desert/hot dry country problem. Meanwhile in other parts of the world, flooding is becoming more regular and dangerous.
or grow crops that need alot less water and are native to Socal. Jojoba makes an excellent oil for use in medicine, cosmetics, and Biodiesel. Date palms for fruit, liquor, sweetener, animal feed, a coffee like stimulant, and as a cellulose crop. Citrus fruits are a no brainer, as well as some cultivars of squash, beans, and Corn.
This is all stuff native to california, but nobody plants it, and are willing to import dates from the Middle east and use soybeans to make biodiesel.
Come on California, your better then this
Me too, but it's too salty to drink. Or so your mom says.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Well, not really. Israel imports substantial quantities of grain (approximately 80% of local consumption) What does that have to do with water? Grain trade is essentially a trade of water, in concentrated form. Growing wheat, for example, takes 584 lbs of water per lb of crop produced (it might even be worse, since I'm not sure if that is the entire wheat plant or just the grain). So importing 1 lb of wheat equates to importing about 600 lb of water. Maybe we think "water" means drinking water or taking showers, but that is a minuscule fraction of overall usage.
The thing about the Saudis is that their population has grown from a few million to around 30 million in like 60 years, all funded by oil wealth.
They also know that the oil will eventually run out. They sort of want to find some way of feeding everyone after they have nothing left to trade for food.
I kind of think they're screwed, but they at least are looking forward to the future and trying to do something to avoid the cliff.
The water problem is a population problem, globally. Egypt had a stable population of between 2.5 and 5 million people for thousands of years. Now they're closing in on 90 million.
I've always been curious about water. Does the amount of water we have today, equal the amount of water from the when the dinosaurs lived?
More or less the same. There may be differences in how much is fresh, and how much is saline, and differences in ocean levels due to glaciation or polar ice.
The issues of water shortage are due to our using more and more of the fresh water that is available. We continue to believe that there will always be enough of whatever we need so that population will increase forever.
While we continue this process, we use water from sources that are not infinite. The Oglalla Aquifer in the Great Plains of the US has declined about 9 percent since it was first tapped for irrigation. (note this is not linear, as the aquifer shrinks, some places will run out of water long before other. In Long Beach, California, groundwater pumped subsidence was 29 feet in it's deepest part. Many oil wells were destroyed, as well as pipelines. http://www.longbeach.gov/oil/subsidence/story.asp , there are other places also, such as Houston Texas. http://www.subsidence.org/FAQs/Common.html
And once subsided, the aquifers don't come back, they are not elastic, at least on any time scales that will help humans.
There will probably be more rivers like the Colorado, that are completely used for people, and do not make it to the ocean any longer. We can feed the world with it's population growth - but only for a while
Is there a solution? Well, I would prefer that we stop popping out new people at the present rate. will that happen? I doubt it. So in lieu of a mass die-off, we might want to read the Dune novels, as a sort of look ahead. We'll probably go to hydroponic factory farms, which will free up land for more people, while going to a more manageable watering system. Efficient methods of irrigating on open land tend to salinate the soil.
The concept of the daily shower will probably go the way of the Dodo, I would expect strict water rationing per person.
Other possibilities might be massive nuclear plant fueled desalinization plants. As in plants much larger or more numerous than we have now, that are dedicated to desalinization. There are some serious waste material problems, like chlorine and salt. This method of producing fresh water does not help with the great plains water issues. There will still be liestyle issues. This whole method of getting water will put a lot of resources into just producing water and the resulting food/sanitation/life support will take up much more of our money.
Or we'll just all start fighting among ourselves, and kill most of us off. Which will solve the problem in the worst possible way.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
The Turks have built numerous dams on the Euphrates 'n Tigris & their tributaries & are diverting a significant percentage of their waters that traditionally flowed through to Syria & Iraq.
In some cases this could be considered an act of war.
Some water in the atmosphere gets decomposed by cosmic rays all the time and the hydrogen thus freed can escape the atmosphere and no longer be available to make water. But we probably get enough water coming back in from meteors, etc. to make up for it.
The fact is that the 500 000 Israeli settlers in their colonial outposts in the occupied West Bank use about ten times the water that the millions of Palestinians do in the West Bank. Fact is it's the gardens, farms, pastures, groves & orchids of West Bank Palestinians that are the most efficient Water wise - they have no choice, the Israeli settlers steal 95% of their water.
I would prefer that we stop popping out new people at the present rate. will that happen? I doubt it.
The rise in population growth has been declining for decades. The UN median projection is that we will top out just below 10 billion around 2070 and then shrink.
No doubt needed.
it's in my head
I agree with you.
Here's what fuzzy is parroting:
This argument, which is not proven science, suggests the following: as technology and wealth improve likelihood of survival, people tend to have fewer children. That which technology does not do, birth control will also.
The main evidence for this, in this article's view, is that in fewer than half of the nations on earth, population growth has declined, and it took us as a whole longer to add the 7th billionth person than it has to add the previous billion.
The article is shoddy science for a number of reasons.
First, the nations that are declining in population tend to be the wealthier ones or ones aided by immigration in becoming so. Related to that is that the nations which are dropping in birth rate are importing large immigrant populations.
Second, the delay in adding the seventh billion may have very little significance. A few tragedies or droughts, some instability or disease, and a delay can happen. That's even assuming our estimates are right, since we're estimating that seven billion and when it occurred.
Finally, the article ignores the path of history. The poorer tend to outproduce the wealthier, which tends to make wealthy nations poorer and less stable, which tends to increase the birth rate as well.
Further, many of our magic cures like antibiotics are no longer guaranteed barriers to disease. In addition, many diseases are mutating. Life expectancy rates of a modern nature may be a blip on the radar.
As you noted, we're already at a stressing point. We don't need to look much farther than the collapse of fish stocks to see that we're trying to feed too many people.
The Slate article is suspect for another reason: Slate tends to pump out these feelgood articles every year or so encouraging us not to think about any problem that contradicts popular notions of fre
I'm not really an environmentalist and I never said anything like that. I simply stated the fact that overpopulation is straining water resources. I don't need their resources; I live in Canada - we have more water than we know what to do with.