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Intrade Shutdown Hurts Academics

Posted by timothy on from the odds-are-against-immediate-return dept.

New submitter jader3rd writes "Intrade, a popular Irish website that lets people bet on anything, has shut down. In addition to being used by gamblers, Intrade has been used by academics and pundits to track public sentiment. '"... broad crowds have a lot of information and that markets are an effective way of aggregating that information," says Justin Wolfers, "and they often turn out to be much better than experts."' Being forced to lose their U.S. customers couldn't have helped.

17 of 131 comments (clear)

  1. The question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The question isn't whether other people "should have" the right to gamble.

    The question is whether YOU should have the right to employ violence (meaning physical force or threat thereof) against other people in an attempt to stop them from gambling.

    Now that the question has been properly rephrased, it can be properly answered.

    1. Re:The question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Come see the violence inherent in the system!

    2. Re:The question by Aglassis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It is actually a more general question. The question is whether the government has the right to use force (i.e. the police busting into your house with a SWAT team and shooting your dog) to prevent a person from doing an act that harms nobody but themselves or another fully consenting and knowledgeable adult. Drugs, polygamy, gambling, legal age prostitution, etc., could all be arguably classified under victim-less crimes. And not surprisingly, all of these are crimes against morality (except when there in a financial interest such as the lottery or alcohol sales).

      --
      Suddenly, the hairy finger of a familiar monkey tapped me on the shoulder. It was time.--G. T.
    3. Re:The question by pthisis · · Score: 4, Informative

      Drugs, polygamy, gambling, legal age prostitution, etc., could all be arguably classified under victim-less crimes.

      That's not the issue here at all. http://tippie.uiowa.edu/ and other futures markets run without CTFC interference.

      It's not gambling that's the issue here. The investigation at hand is about undocumented payments from the company to its (retired) founder and others, and whether there's potential investor fraud--a crime with an actual victim--going on.

      --
      rage, rage against the dying of the light
    4. Re:The question by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Informative

      While this is true, nowadays they tend to restrict their raids to organizations where they get evidence or a tip that teenage girls are being 'married' to adult men, and usually charge the perpetrators with statutory rape, sex with a minor, or suchlike (depending on state laws, etc). The organization itself also gets slapped with aiding/abetting and similar.

      Your specific cite occurred in 1953, which was probably the last time they could simply tear into a polygamist group just on that one charge alone. (the April 2010 raid was on misuse of public funds, not polygamy).

      I suspect nowadays that if they tried making arrests on mere polygamy charges, it would wind up in the Supreme Court, which would likely strike it down (and open a somewhat smallish can of worms). Another part of it is the loopholes (legal marriage versus "spiritual" marriage) that polygamists use to skirt the law. As further evidence I present that stupid 'reality' TV show Sister Wives, where that behavior is paraded openly on television.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    5. Re:The question by Aglassis · · Score: 3

      The Harm Principle doesn't negate a person's duties. If you don't pay income tax but still take advantage of the services the government provides, like police, roads, and schools, then you have failed in your duty. If you are the rare individual who was homeschooled (or raised by wolves) and lives out in the middle of Alaska and in no way takes advantage of government services, then sure, pay no income tax (which will be easy since you won't have any income). Failing in your duty does harm actually people, be it failing to provide food for your kids or failing to support a school system than once educated you.

      --
      Suddenly, the hairy finger of a familiar monkey tapped me on the shoulder. It was time.--G. T.
    6. Re:The question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What a stupid argument. Make something criminal and then complain that it gets associated with other criminal activities, so it's alright it's criminal. Complete circular nonsense.

    7. Re:The question by mjr167 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If a woman marries a rich man it is often in her interest to kill him and inherit. Perhaps we should make marrying rich men illegal so that women won't be tempted to murder their husbands in their sleep.

      Making an activity that many adults do responsibility a crime just because some adults who do the same things also commit crimes that may or may not be related is dumb.

    8. Re:The question by Aglassis · · Score: 5, Insightful

      An acquaintance of mine whose husband snorted both of their entire retirement funds up his nose might question that. So might a friend whose father consistently gambled away most of his take home pay. There's more to consider than just the direct participants.

      Yes, but you are using today's drug math. If cocaine wasn't illegal, it wouldn't be so expensive. And if it was well regulated, the dosage could be monitored.

      But what if he blew his money on the stock market or a crazy investment? There are a million stupid ways people lose their retirement savings. You can't put people in plastic balls to protect themselves from everything in the world and you don't need to burn down crops and indirectly fund insurgencies in Colombia because some asshole snorted cocaine. It is amazing that you talk about considering people other than the direct participants while supporting the War on Drugs.

      --
      Suddenly, the hairy finger of a familiar monkey tapped me on the shoulder. It was time.--G. T.
    9. Re:The question by chrismcb · · Score: 3, Insightful

      >The topic here isn't "ways to blow retirement savings", the topic is "the effects of so called victimless crimes". That you feel the need to change the topic tells me all I need to know.

      So it is ok to "blow retirement savings" if the thing it is blown on is legal? It isn't changing the topic, the topics are the same.

  2. Extremely vague article by schneidafunk · · Score: 5, Informative

    You're better off going to intrade's website here for information: http://www.intrade.com/

    " With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on www.intrade.com.

    These circumstances require immediate further investigation, and may include financial irregularities which in accordance with Irish law oblige the directors to take the following actions:

    Cease exchange trading on the website immediately.
    Settle all open positions and calculate the settled account value of all Member accounts immediately.
    Cease all banking transactions for all existing Company accounts immediately.


    During the upcoming weeks, we will investigate these circumstances further and determine the necessary course of action.

    To mitigate any further risk to members’ accounts, we have closed and settled all open contracts at fair market value as of the close of business on March 10, 2013, in accordance with the Terms and Conditions of our customers’ use of the website. You may view your account details and settled account balances by logging into the website.

    At this time and until further notice, it is not possible to make any payments to members in accordance with their settled account balance until the investigations have concluded.

    The Company will continue the maintenance and technology operations of the exchange system so that all information is preserved properly.

    We are not able to provide telephone support or live help services at this time, please contact the company by email at: accountservices@intrade.com

    We appreciate your custom and support over the years. We are committed to reporting faithfully the status of things as they are clarified and hope you will bear with us as we do all we can to resume operations as promptly as possible.

    Sincerely,

    The Board of Directors of Intrade the Prediction Market Limited "

    --
    Some people die at 25 and aren't buried until 75. -Benjamin Franklin
  3. Shit! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    I bet this wouldn't have happened!

  4. More info by schneidafunk · · Score: 5, Informative

    "The moves followed concerns raised by the company’s auditors over more than $1.5 million payments to Intrade’s founder, John Delaney, and other unnamed third parties. The transactions, according Intrade’s auditors, were not sufficiently documented."

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/online-betting-site-intrade-halts-operations/

    --
    Some people die at 25 and aren't buried until 75. -Benjamin Franklin
  5. Not the only one around, nor the oldest by pthisis · · Score: 5, Informative

    I never understood why Intrade got so much press--the Iowa Electronic Market has been doing the "online futures trading" thing for far longer. They're still up and running at: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

    And they have approval from the CTFC: http://www.cftc.gov/files/foia/repfoia/foirf0503b004.pdf

    --
    rage, rage against the dying of the light
  6. Re:Good job, whoever is against online gambling by Penguinisto · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Err, bad news... I doubt the shutdown was religiously motivated.

    Even outright atheists in government would happily close the site. Why? Because government doesn't get the huge 'vig' off of it, like they do with lotteries and suchlike. Now state lotteries on the other hand (especially as they expand into casino territory, with "video lottery" slot machines, keno, etc)? Well, the governments get their take in way bigger chunks. This in turn raises a huge incentive to keep competition from private industry to a minimum.

    After all, if folks are going to gamble anyway, you may as well make it a levy on idiocy while funding government coffers at the same time...

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  7. Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The problem I have with futures trading is that it creates incentive for things to go one way or another.

    What if I were to bet 500k that ${ASSASSINATION_TARGET} was not going to die by getting shot and then thrown in the east river tomorrow?
    Someone who sees that would then have incentive to make that happen.

    Even in more limited ways it can still be a problem. Sports history has instances of people throwing games in order to make large amounts of money. I could see the same causing sabotage in industry. You cant publicly bet on things without changing the probability that they will happen.

  8. Re:What difference between gambling and insurance? by PPH · · Score: 4, Informative

    In general terms its called "insurable interest". If you are exposed to a loss and you hedge against it, its insurance. If its not your house (or football team*), its gambling.

    *The league has their own regulations prohibiting "insurance" against a loss by those with financial exposure to sporting outcomes like team owners.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.