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Brain Scans Predict Which Criminals Are More Likely To Re-offend

ananyo writes "In a twist that evokes the dystopian science fiction of writer Philip K. Dick, neuroscientists have found a way to predict whether convicted felons are likely to commit crimes again from looking at their brain scans. Convicts showing low activity in a brain region associated with decision-making and action are more likely to be arrested again, and sooner. The researchers studied a group of 96 male prisoners just before their release. They used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to scan the prisoners' brains during computer tasks in which subjects had to make quick decisions and inhibit impulsive reactions. The scans focused on activity in a section of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), a small region in the front of the brain involved in motor control and executive functioning. The researchers then followed the ex-convicts for four years to see how they fared. Among the subjects of the study, men who had lower ACC activity during the quick-decision tasks were more likely to be arrested again after getting out of prison, even after the researchers accounted for other risk factors such as age, drug and alcohol abuse and psychopathic traits."

41 of 187 comments (clear)

  1. Good technology by rmdashrf · · Score: 5, Funny

    Now let's first use it on our politicians.

    --
    Nihil in publicum sputa.
    1. Re:Good technology by hedwards · · Score: 4, Insightful

      We have the power, it's just that when half of Americans vote for people promising to bring the government to the knees, you don't wind up with the best or the brightest being elected.

      Which is strange, I would have thought voting for people looking to screw up the government would be just the ticket for effective and useful governance. Who'dathunk.

    2. Re:Good technology by rwise2112 · · Score: 2

      Now let's first use it on our politicians.

      Why? We already know.

      --

      "For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert"
    3. Re:Good technology by Sulphur · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Now let's first use it on our politicians.

      Why? We already know.

      To calibrate the tests.

    4. Re:Good technology by gnasher719 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Now let's first use it on our politicians.

      Totally misunderstanding what this is about.

      There's a bit in your brain that tells you "don't do this, this is a bad idea" when you want to do something that is a bad idea. That bit usually stops you from getting into trouble. It will stop you from smacking your boss in the face if he upsets you, which tends to be a bad idea. It will stop you from smashing a car window and grabbing things on the seat. It will stop you from doing things that hurt you (in the end), including any badly planned crime. People where this bit of the brain is underdeveloped tend to do stupid things, including re-offending after getting out of jail and getting caught.

      On the other hand, criminals of any kind who carefully plan what they are doing are not affected by this. They also tend to get caught less often.

    5. Re:Good technology by Ch_Omega · · Score: 2

      Now let's first use it on our politicians.

      Thats actually not a bad idea, considering that previous research has found support for a link between degree of activity in amugdala and the anterior cingulate cortex, and wether or not people will keep their promises.

    6. Re:Good technology by FooAtWFU · · Score: 2

      We have the power, it's just that when half of Americans vote for people promising to bring the government to the knees, you don't wind up with the best or the brightest being elected.

      Could be worse. These "best and brightest" could have been elected and run amok. Oh, wait, that was 2008. ;)

      No seriously though, one man's "bring the government to its knees" is another's "bring spending back in line with sane levels more similar to (population-adjusted) 2007 levels instead of keeping it at 50% above that forever with all the implications that will have on our debt and/or tax levels and economic growth". I suppose it must be nice to be able dismiss all your political opponents with caricatures of their views, though I'm idly wondering whether making that decision instead of going for intellectual honesty is itself consistent with the brain scan differences reported in this article :)

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    7. Re:Good technology by isorox · · Score: 4, Insightful

      > We have the power, it's just that when half of Americans vote for people promising to bring the government to the knees, you don't wind up with the best or the brightest being elected.

      Or half the people hopelessly defending a corrupted system of horizontal of checks and balances government has the capabilities to heal themselves. The only solution to that is the vertical check: nullifying government when necessary.

      When you have 95% of the country always voting for their team, based on the assertion that the other team is wrong, nothing changes.

    8. Re:Good technology by hedwards · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Considering that the GOP has promised specifically to burn the country down to make President Obama a 1 term President and that those politicians have all been reelected, I'd suggest that there is indeed a substantial number of voters that are in fact voting wrong.

      If you really think the parties are identical, then you haven't been paying attention. Yes, on a few issues there is way too much agreement, but if you seriously can't see a difference on issues of taxation and social issues, you're one of those "low information voters" that I keep hearing about.

      It's not a case where there's some debate, the GOP has been promising specifically to destroy the government.

    9. Re:Good technology by hedwards · · Score: 3

      Not really, you bring spending back in line by a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. The party that's knows that is coincidentally not the party that's promising to bring the government to its knees.

      As for 2007 levels, are you fucking serious? We had massive spending during the 2001-2007 period and no tax increases to pay for it. Cutting spending to that level would be ridiculous as there was a ton of waste at that point. To get things to sane levels, we need to have a combination of tax cuts and tax increases.

      Just because you have a lot of welfare states that don't want to accept cuts to their things, doesn't make it any more true. These politicians aren't promising cuts to bring things back under control, they're trying to get cuts to kill programs they don't like, even though their districts aren't actually contributint their fair shares and the spending that they are OK with is of no use to most people.

    10. Re:Good technology by epyT-R · · Score: 2

      Yeah, because, historically, our government officials, like the ones using our taxes to fund these badly correlated behavior 'studies', are bastions of rationality, justice, objectivity, and truth. Naturally these selfless, caring, freedom loving people want only the best for us when they say they absolutely 'have' to grow the budget deficit every damn year, punch legal holes in documents designed to protect our rights, and then tell us the reasons and details are a matter of 'national security.'

      I really do wonder when the majority will get fed up with this and quit drinking the koolaid so liberally distributed on TV growing up and then on campus during their college years. While it's true that corporates do not give a shit about you, the government bureaucracy doesn't either...not when you're just a collection of bits across 2500+ databases processed into a list socially negative probabilities.

      So what's next? Preemptive reincarceration for those flagged, or maybe just monitor/tail/watch them incessantly til they lose it and shoot one of the undercover officers, thereby 'proving' the validity of the 'study'? Those are two probable next steps, right?

  2. Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So do you focus all your Rehab efforts on activities that stimulate this region of the brain, or only parole prisoners that show high activitiy in the area?

    1. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by characterZer0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You use this test as an excuse to keep certain people in jail for political reasons.

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    2. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by geekmux · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You use this test as an excuse to keep certain people in jail for political reasons.

      So, let me get this straight...you're going to continue to incarcerate me, for something I might do in the future?

      Believe me, I'm not questioning whether this would actually happen or not. We've proven corruption knows no bounds.

      I'm merely pointing out the "minor" issues with this concept, regardless of where our Rights have dissolved away.

    3. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2

      "I'm merely pointing out the "minor" issues with this concept, regardless of where our Rights have dissolved away."

      Not only would legislating nearly anything based on this border on Thought Crime, it would reflect ignorance of the basic principle that statistics do not reveal anything about individual cases.

    4. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by SolemnDwarf · · Score: 2

      Both, to be honest. There still needs to be a continuity of treatment throughout the CJ system, from incarceration through re-entry.

      These scans, if accurate, will simply be another tool in the toolbox. Various assessments (old-school interview style) regarding decision-making skills are already being used. This would add another measurement tool to the mix.

      Decision-making skills play a significant role, but there are plenty of other factors that help to reduce recidivism rates, such as anti-social belief systems, mental health, criminal companions, etc.

      It's important people realize this only measures likelihood of re-offending. It's not a yes/no. No "pre-crime" scenarios could be used. Even if someone measured out at 99% likelihood to re-offend, it doesn't guarantee they will.

    5. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by bhartman34 · · Score: 2

      Regardless of whether this is a bad idea or not, how is keeping someone who fails this test incarcerated "political"? It seems to me that if the test is the basis for parole or release, that's the opposite of political. That's based on science. Whether it's based on good science is another question, but it's certainly not based on, "Keeping you locked up will look good to my voters", or "Giving you early release will look good to my [other] voters".

    6. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by RatPh!nk · · Score: 2

      Decision-making skills play a significant role, but there are plenty of other factors that help to reduce recidivism rates, such as anti-social belief systems, mental health, criminal companions, etc

      which according to the article were controlled for.......Doesn't mean it is perfect, but it is less of a confounding variable then you may think.

      --
      Argh. The laws of science be a harsh mistress.
    7. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 2

      Well it basically happens here in Minnesota with sex offenders. After they have finished their jail or prison term they get them committed to a mental institution because they might offend again. This has been held up the courts as this is a civil commitment and not a criminal one even though the individual does not wish to be held. Thus no ex post facto or double jeopardy things preventing this. As they are convicted sex offenders no one really wants to remedy the problem and no politician will touch the issue with a 10 foot pole.

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      Time to offend someone
    8. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by lightknight · · Score: 2

      Hehe. Got it one. A little manual 'calibration' of the machine, or perhaps some careful slips of the results...and voila, your average political protester is now a career criminal, with no chance for an appeal!

      One of the simpler tricks, of course, will be to simply take a brain scan from a known mass murderer before 'taking a scan' of the person of political interest...old tricks are the best tricks, right?

      --
      I am John Hurt.
    9. Re:Targeted Rehab or Targeted Parole by lightknight · · Score: 2

      Or you could, I don't know, banish them from the society to which they are ill-suited? The Ancient Greeks did that, I believe.

      What purpose can be found in holding someone to standards they cannot meet, except to exact revenge upon them for being born in the wrong place, and not having the resources to emancipate themselves?

      --
      I am John Hurt.
  3. Beware of sampling bias by SirGarlon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Does the more impulsive decision-making mean they're more likely to commit new crimes, or simply more likely to get caught?

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    [Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
    1. Re:Beware of sampling bias by plover · · Score: 2

      Does that particular bias matter? Are you thinking they're detecting "stupidity" or "carelessness" instead of "criminal tendencies"? The end result doesn't have to explain the path, although it's nice when it does.

      What I think might be more interesting in is the nature of the crime vs. the mapping of activity. Are they violent criminals? Drug offenders? Insider traders? Political dissidents? I should think that each would have a different type of response: drug offenders might be react due to addiction; violent offenders might have poor impulse control which could show up in a different area of the brain; political dissidents would have the internal smug certainty of being "right" regarding their "just" cause; while insider traders could just be scheming bastards. The selection process might only work on one category of offender; or perhaps would need to be tailored to fit either the crime or the individual.

      --
      John
    2. Re:Beware of sampling bias by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2

      Please never be a juror for me.

    3. Re:Beware of sampling bias by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      Non-violent crime isn't just drug dealers. In fact, that is probably the least likely to be affected by differences in impulse suppression. One of the major functions of the ACC is to suppress impulses, particularly in situations where you have previously learned that acting on those impulses is harmful. But you don't become a drug dealer just because you stumble upon a drug dealer and suddenly getting the urge to do that. It is a conscious decision that involves planning, networking, etc.

      The non-violent recidivism that this predicts are unplanned crimes—shoplifting, buying drugs, public drunkenness, etc.—the sorts of crimes that are caused by someone acting on impulse.

      What this tells us is that certain people are unlikely to ever develop the ability to resist temptation, and that the only way to prevent them from going back to a life of crime is to ensure that those temptations are not part of their lives. There are many ways to accomplish this, with varying degrees of success. For example, if someone fails this test, it would be best for them to not try to go back to their lives prior to being in prison. They should try to make a clean start, and should be very, very selective about who they allow back into their new lives, to reduce the chances of falling into the same pattern of behavior that got them in trouble in the first place. That makes this a great diagnostic test for determining how closely to monitor someone on probation/parole, to what extent they will need additional support, what sort of terms the judge should set for probation/parole, etc.

      The reason this is a stronger indicator for nonviolent crimes is that the sorts of people who commit violent crimes fall into three categories: the sociopaths, the people who commit crimes of passion, and people who commit violent crimes as an unplanned side effect of committing other crimes (e.g. people who initially planned to steal something from a store, but ended up shooting the store manager after he pointed a gun at them). Of these:

      • The sociopaths are likely to commit another violent crime, but we already have ways to test for that.
      • The people who commit a crime of passion are unlikely to be in a similarly extreme situation, so they are unlikely to commit another violent crime.
      • The people who commit a violent crime because they acted on impulse might commit another one, but that would be predicted by this same test.

      Two things make this test a weaker indicator for violent recidivism: the relatively large size of that middle group and the law preventing someone from legally owning a handgun after committing a violent crime (which significantly reduces the violent recidivism of the third group, though not necessarily the nonviolent recidivism).

      This is not to say that the people in the third group could not obtain a firearm if they wanted to do so, but assuming these people are generally trying to stay out of jail, they aren't likely to go out looking for illegal firearms, so they probably won't be armed the next time they decide to commit a crime on the spur of the moment, and if they are, then they're probably in the first bucket, not the third.

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    4. Re:Beware of sampling bias by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      Your math is off. You're subtracting non-like percentages. It is not possible to know the rate for violent offenders without knowing what percentage of "all offenders" are violent.

      Unless, of course, that detail is covered in the actual article.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  4. Brain discrimination by i+kan+reed · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It's not illegal to discriminate against people on the basis of their brain activity. Should it be? Can you judge someone on the basis of their biology? Is it really that person's fault anymore if a part of their body predelects them to wrongdoing? Where does liability start? Can you fix people? Should you?

    Too many questions about really understanding the brain that our primitive moral system could begin to address.

    1. Re:Brain discrimination by interkin3tic · · Score: 2

      Odds are this would be used on people who have already committed a crime, like determining if parole is granted. I'd argue it's still discrimination if you're saying "Past history AND biology," but the issue is murkier than you're presenting it. I think it's unlikely anyone would say "lets start locking up or watching people who haven't committed any crimes based solely on brain scans."

    2. Re:Brain discrimination by HeckRuler · · Score: 2

      It's not illegal to discriminate against people on the basis of their brain activity. Should it be?

      I think that's too big of a blanket statement. Leaves out too many details. It's not as simple as that. See below.

      Can you judge someone on the basis of their biology?

      Well, yes, I can personally judge people based on whatever I damn well feel like. Yay liberty. But if I were to, say, hire someone based on their biology, specifically whether or not they have blond hair, or an Y chromosome, or hadn't hit menopause, or had grey hair, or you know, other biological stuff, sometimes that could land you with a big fat law-suit for discrimination. And rightly so. Other times you need to hire young blonds because it's an acting role, and that's ok.

      So the answer is yes and no because it's a bad question that's overly broad.

      Is it really that person's fault anymore if a part of their body preselects them to wrongdoing?

      Yes. If someone has the gene which makes them ludicrously susceptible to alcohol addiction, it's up to them not to get addicted, break their addiction, know their weaknesses, be a functioning addict and/or otherwise be a functional member of society.

      If you have anger-management issues you need to deal with that. We all have strengths and weaknesses, to say that you are not the owner of said traits detracts from what it is that makes you, you. If we separate people from owning their own traits, there's really no incentive to fix them. If being a drunkard is somehow socially acceptable or otherwise excused, we will have more drunkards because more people will stop fighting to fix their issues.

      All that said, we generally react poorly to the concept of fault. Rather than punishing those at fault, we should work on fixing them. Rather than trials and judgements being about what punishment people deserve, it should be more like "yep, you're fucked up, time to fix you". And just so you don't think I'm some bleeding-heart hippy, some cases aren't worth fixing, and it's time to take them out back and shoot them or lock them away forever so they don't hurt others.

      Where does liability start?

      Your actions. I reject the idea that the "pre-disposed-to-violence" types are not liable for the violence they cause. We all have our collection of quirks, oddities, and problems. If you cannot contain your problems and be a functional member of society, you're liable for that. Sociopaths don't get a free-ride for murder, drunkards don't get excused for public intoxication.

      Can you fix people?

      To an extent, for most problems. The easily-addicted sort need to clean up and stay away from the sauce. The violent types need to channel that in constructive way or punch a bag of potatoes rather than building a doomsday device. Counseling, planning, therapy, medication, and such can help, but they can't inject 20cc's of wisdom yet, and there are a LOT of issues we don't understand yet. And despite the best counselors, a willing reformee, a known problem, and all the right steps... sometimes the flaw is just too deep. We shouldn't spend 50 years of resources so Manson-types can go be janitors for 5 years before they kick the bucket.

      Should you?

      It depends. For convicted felons? Yes, I think they've lost the right to be fuckups and the fix, if any, should be forced upon them. They cannot be trusted to contain/deal with/or fix themselves. For friends and family, yes, because you love them. You should do what you can to try and fix them, and they have the option to accept or refuse. For others? eeeeh, as long as it's no skin off my teeth I'd say live and let live.

      There's this whole idea of society and by helping others I help myself. The whole "rising tides lift all boats" thing. But by and far the attempts I've see to try and pro-actively fix aspects of society have caused more problems

  5. They were all caught and imprisoned initially by kawabago · · Score: 2

    So that should even selection bias

    1. Re:They were all caught and imprisoned initially by SirGarlon · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They're measuring re-arrest, not recidivism (committing new crimes). There is a difference: not all who commit crimes get arrested, and not all who get arrested have committed a crime. One of the key principles in _How to Lie with Statistics_ (excellent book) was the following:

      1. Discover that you don't have data to support a desire finding (in this case, that we can predict who will re-commit crimes)
      2. Provide data that supports some other finding instead (in this case, re-arrest rate)
      3. Pretend there is no difference between your desired finding and your actual finding
      4. ...

      5. Profit!
      --
      [Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
  6. Statistically speaking, a lot by Lucas123 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    According to a 2011 Pew study, more than 40 percent of ex-cons commit crimes within three years of their release and wind up back behind bars. As reported on BBC Radio in 2005, the recidivism rates for released prisoners in the U.S. is 60% compared with 50% in the United Kingdom. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics of nearly 300,000 prisoners released in 15 states in 1994, 67.5% were rearrested within 3 years. A study of prisoners released in 1983 estimated 62.5%. In general, U.S. prisons offer very little to inmates that would keep them from repeating crimes once they're released. Perhaps we should rethink this strategy?

    1. Re:Statistically speaking, a lot by h4rr4r · · Score: 4, Informative

      We also make it near impossible for those recently incarcerated to find work. Just try to get a non-shit job with a felony record. No wonder they go back to crime, you have to pay the bills somehow.

    2. Re:Statistically speaking, a lot by gnasher719 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Of the two strategies, the second seems better backed by numbers. The sharp dip in the crime rate from the later 1990s through the 2000s is thought to be due to much longer sentences being handed down to violent criminals starting in the late 1980s-early 1990s. Incarceration costs are up, but public harm is down. Spend money, get benefit.

      I read it was due to abortion becoming much more acceptable, which led to fewer kids being born into a bad family situation that would eventually lead to criminal behaviour.

    3. Re:Statistically speaking, a lot by organgtool · · Score: 2

      And I heard the reduction in crime was caused by banning lead from gasoline. Excessive quantities of lead have been proven to make people more violent. The fact of the matter is that it is difficult to know exactly why it happened, but I know of studies that claim to have proven the reduction was caused by banning leaded gasoline and I have never heard of any studies even finding a correlation with the acceptance of abortion.

  7. Re:Block brain scanners by memorizing a host file by dyingtolive · · Score: 4, Funny

    Speaking of people with lower ACC activity..

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  8. Re:Block brain scanners by memorizing a host file by TheP4st · · Score: 2

    Hahahaha! Thank you, you actually had me laughing out loudly and my inner voice ceased screaming "Die die die AC!"

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  9. Re:Could be a good thing by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2

    My slashdot discussions have revealed to me that we will never get past that. Between the authoritarians republicans, execute-all-criminals-for-evolution libertarians, and all flavors of just-world believing nutballs, we will never manage to treat crime in an optimal way.

  10. Fiddlesticks... by jasonq · · Score: 2

    We all know that phrenology is more reliable!

  11. Re:Isn't an IQ Test Cheaper and More Effective? by dotar · · Score: 2

    It's not "lower levels of cognitive function", it's "lower activity when making a decision". It absolutely stands to reason that an area of the brain largely involved in detection of errors or shortfalls from some standard, anticipation and preparation before task performance, and regulation of emotions would be less active in someone who makes poor decisions.

  12. Prison by Azure+Flash · · Score: 2

    Couldn't the fact that we take criminals and put them in a giant cage with all of the other criminals and then forget about them for decades have something to do with recidivists?