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Climate Change Will Boost Plane Turbulence, Suggests Study

sciencehabit writes "Get used to a bumpy ride. The strength and frequency of atmospheric turbulence affecting transatlantic flights will increase by midcentury, a new study suggests. During winter months, 16 of the 21 often-used ways in which scientists measure turbulence suggest that the average intensity of the plane-rattling phenomenon will be between 10% and 40% stronger when CO2 concentrations are double their preindustrial value. Accordingly, the frequency of moderate-or-greater turbulence—intensities at which passengers will experience accelerations of 0.5 g or more, which are strong enough to toss items about the cabin—will rise by between 40% and 170%. As a result of pilots needing to dodge strong turbulence, flight paths will become longer, and fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will increase—possibly leading to even more turbulence."

184 comments

  1. or, like most of the tens of thousands of models by iggymanz · · Score: 2, Insightful

    or, alternatively, none of those things will happen. Since the mid 90s billions of dollars and euros and yen have been wasted on climate models, most of which have been utterly useless. Even this year major factors have been discovered that render all previous models void, and the "climatologists" cherry-pick, cook the books, from the pile of models after the fact to try to justify their existence. This pseudo-science should have its plug pulled, it serves no purpose other than pumping "cap and trade" scams.

  2. Turbulence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    How dangerous is turbulence really?

    1. Re:Turbulence by SJHillman · · Score: 4, Funny

      That depends on how hot the coffee on your lap is.

    2. Re:Turbulence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The danger varies a lot depending on the script writer -- from you-lose-your-virginity-to-a-big-chested-model-dangerous in "The day after tomorrow" to die-years-after-the-turbulence-dangerous in "Final destination".

    3. Re:Turbulence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The temperature of the coffee could be directly related to how he interacted with the stewardess who serves it to him. More then one kind of turbulence after all.

      PC note: So call them a flight attendant instead and make pronouns interchangeable, unwanted/unwarranted attention is still unwanted/unwarranted attention.

  3. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by i_ate_god · · Score: 4, Insightful

    citation needed

    --
    I'm god, but it's a bit of a drag really...
  4. Study was probably funded by the airlines... by DougOtto · · Score: 1, Funny

    They just want another excuse to avoid giving in-flight service.

    --
    Solving Unix problems since 1989...
    1. Re:Study was probably funded by the airlines... by poofmeisterp · · Score: 1

      They just want another excuse to avoid giving in-flight service.

      You caught them. You'll never get a frequent flyer mile again, kind sir. ;)

  5. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by catchblue22 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    or, alternatively, none of those things will happen. Since the mid 90s billions of dollars and euros and yen have been wasted on climate models, most of which have been utterly useless. Even this year major factors have been discovered that render all previous models void, and the "climatologists" cherry-pick, cook the books, from the pile of models after the fact to try to justify their existence. This pseudo-science should have its plug pulled, it serves no purpose other than pumping "cap and trade" scams.

    Definiton of bull shit:

    Bullshit is commonly used to describe statements made by people more concerned with the response of the audience than in truth and accuracy, such as goal-oriented statements made in the field of politics or advertising.

    "Bullshit" does not necessarily have to be a complete fabrication; with only basic knowledge about a topic, bullshit is often used to make the audience believe that one knows far more about the topic by feigning total certainty or making probable predictions. It may also merely be "filler" or nonsense that, by virtue of its style or wording, gives the impression that it actually means something.

    --
    This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
  6. HSR by Ichijo · · Score: 3, Interesting

    This is yet another reason to build high speed rail wherever it makes sense, between city pairs at least 100 miles apart where it starts to become too far to drive, and up to 500 miles apart where flying starts to become faster (curb to curb) and more cost-effective.

    --
    Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    1. Re:HSR by SJHillman · · Score: 3, Informative

      One of the issues with the high speed rail I've seen them try to implement is too many stops, so the train is only traveling at its top speed for a relatively short time before it slows down for the next stop.

      Then there's also the fact that a lot of "high speed" trains in the US are in the 40-60mph range... not very fast compared to what other countries have.

    2. Re:HSR by m1ndcrash · · Score: 1

      No you can't! Global warming now will produce earthquakes and asteroids according to popular belief

    3. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Obviously if you build high speed rail in the US with the intent that it'd succeed you'd build high speed rail. But to do that we'd either have to break the Amtrak monopoly or remove the requirement that Amtrak allow freight on its lines.

    4. Re:HSR by Rolgar · · Score: 1

      Another issue being utilization. You need to have the shorter trains get out of the way so passengers on long haul trains can keep going, having higher numbers of trains running at a time, spreading the infrastructure cost across more passengers, so the trains will have a cost advantage over planes.

    5. Re:HSR by mrchaotica · · Score: 2, Informative

      ...remove the requirement that Amtrak allow freight on its lines.

      Unless I'm mistaken, you've got the situation backwards: Amtrak doesn't own any lines; it's the freight companies that "allow" Amtrak to run on their lines.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    6. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One newscaster talking out of her ass is the same as popular belief in your mind?

    7. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's the other way around. The lines belong to the railroad companies which allow Amtrak to use them. Freight then has priority (since they own the lines) which increases long distance trip times for Amtrak. If Amtrak had dedicated lines, which would be too costly to do now, then most of the time related issues we see would go away.

    8. Re:HSR by plover · · Score: 1

      At those speeds, aerodynamics are important to the train, right? Can surface winds cause turbulence-like effects?

      --
      John
    9. Re:HSR by khallow · · Score: 1

      This is yet another reason to build high speed rail wherever it makes sense

      That's crazy. If we only build high speed rail lines where they made sense, we wouldn't have any.

    10. Re:HSR by slimjim8094 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Amtrak owns 730 miles of track, including nearly all of their routes in the Northeast . But most of their routes outside that do run on freight rail tracks.

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    11. Re:HSR by Ichijo · · Score: 2

      One of the issues with the high speed rail I've seen them try to implement is too many stops...

      That's why the good Lord invented limited-stop express service, so that not every train needs to stop at every station, and electric trains that accelerate after a stop much more quickly than diesel trains.

      Then there's also the fact that a lot of "high speed" trains in the US are in the 40-60mph range...

      Top speed or average speed? See above.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    12. Re:HSR by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      Name one bullet train line anywhere in the world that's at least a few years old but still doesn't make a profit. Frequently, profit from the HSR line(s) help subsidize a country's passenger train lines as in Japan.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    13. Re:HSR by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      If the made-up bogeymen on Fox News can be real and common, then something a real live person was videotaped actually saying can sure as hell be popular belief!

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    14. Re:HSR by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Not turbulence like on an aircraft, but it could cause the train to rock back and forth a bit. Trains do have the benefit of a suspension system.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    15. Re:HSR by SJHillman · · Score: 1

      Like I said, the implementations I've seen are poor because they don't do things like limited-stop express service more. And the advertised top speeds are usually 45, 50 or 60mph. I don't think I've seen any with an advertised top speed above 70mph.

    16. Re:HSR by plover · · Score: 1

      I'm just thinking of the examples of a truck or bus getting blown over on the interstate due to high cross winds. Sure, a train is far more massive than a truck or bus, but a bullet train is also traveling three times faster, meaning a small change could have a much bigger effect.

      --
      John
    17. Re:HSR by m1ndcrash · · Score: 1

      An anchor on CNN, a channel that has 1.1 million of viewers, shows stupidity. She was brainwashed to a point where she associates global warming with literally anything. The scare tactics would always work on stupid people, forcing them into believing without questioning, organizing institutions, and collecting money (e.g. religion). Your global warming became your new religion. Something to be scared of, waiting for the end. Peace.

    18. Re:HSR by Galactic+Dominator · · Score: 1

      A(nother) failed attempt at poo-poo from a denialist:

      http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/science/2012/04/how-humans-cause-earthquakes/

      --
      brandelf -t FreeBSD /brain
    19. Re:HSR by m1ndcrash · · Score: 1

      Made you all hairy, religious zealot, didn't I? Poo-poo successful then.

    20. Re:HSR by khallow · · Score: 1

      Name one bullet train line anywhere in the world that's at least a few years old but still doesn't make a profit.

      The Shinkansen trains in Japan which have operated for over three decades. Most of the construction cost was just eaten by the Japanese government and eventually sold for about a third (ignoring inflation) of the original construction costs to a stable of private companies. Googling around, I still see public funds for development for these trains, meaning that they're being subsidized - as I see it, a sure sign that they aren't running a profit on their own.

    21. Re:HSR by Ichijo · · Score: 2

      You read the first sentence I wrote. Good! Now read the second.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    22. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We also need to put the high speed rail underground. I was informed of this need by Henny Penny.

    23. Re:HSR by khallow · · Score: 1

      I did and then I gave you the example you asked for. One doesn't get to rule it out because it is inconvenient, especially since there is no neat distinction between older and newer bullet trains in Japan.

    24. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To be specific

      Seventy-two percent of the miles traveled by Amtrak trains are on tracks owned by other railroads. Known as “host railroads,” they range from large publicly traded companies based in the U.S. or Canada, to state and local government agencies and small businesses. Amtrak pays these host railroads for use of their track and other resources required to operate Amtrak trains, with incentives for on-time dispatching. Those payments were for nearly 26 million train miles (one train mile = a mile of track usage by each train) in FY 2011 and totaled more than $124 million.
      The six largest host railroads for Amtrak trains are:

              BNSF Railway, 6.5 million train miles
              Union Pacific Railroad, 6.0 million train miles
              CSX Transportation, 5.9 million train miles
              Norfolk Southern Railway, 2.5 million train miles
              Canadian National Railway, 1.4 million train miles
              Metro North Railroad, 1.3 million train miles

      Metro North counts for a big chunk of the NEC (new york to new haven), and CSX, much of Massachusetts.

      http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&cid=1246041980246

      I have no idea what's the value in measuring "train miles".

    25. Re:HSR by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      When you stated that the construction cost was "eaten" by the Japanese government, you lumped in the cost of regular passenger rail, which as I said is frequently subsidized by high speed rail. JNR is both conventional and high speed rail. Follow your own link if you don't believe me.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    26. Re:HSR by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      Tend to agree - if we're REALLY talking about HSR.

      You need to get rid of all the stops though. I want a system where I catch a moderate-speed commuter train for 25 miles to the nearest city center, and then get on some 200mph train that makes 15 stops from Florida to Maine and covers the distance in 10 hours. Sure, you wouldn't actually ride it for the whole length (well, unless it were much cheaper than flying), but if you could go from Baltimore to Boston in 2.5 hours that would definitely sell (with stops in Philadelphia, NYC, and maybe someplace like Providence).

      What kills HSR is when the thing ends up providing semi-local service, or it travels at 60mph. Have separate lines that provide actual local service for getting to the main transportation hubs.

    27. Re:HSR by demonlapin · · Score: 1

      at least 100 miles apart where it starts to become too far to drive

      Uh, what? 100 mi is nothing. I've driven that far each way for lunch. Combined with door-to-door service and no timetables to meet? The personal car is the acme of transportation for the foreseeable future (i.e., at least until we develop essentially free energy). The self-driving personal car will only magnify this effect.

    28. Re:HSR by Galactic+Dominator · · Score: 1

      Amtrak owns 730 miles of track, including nearly all of their routes in the Northeast

      What "facts" did this inform you of?

      --
      brandelf -t FreeBSD /brain
    29. Re:HSR by Galactic+Dominator · · Score: 1

      Amtrak owns 730 miles of track, including nearly all of their routes in the Northeast

      Which "Lord" is that? UP?

      --
      brandelf -t FreeBSD /brain
    30. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ahem, passenger trains are nearly always shorter than freight trains. They have to be short enough to fit in the station if nothing else. Amtrak trains that are on time have a short window to pass freight trains on sidings but if they're late they may end up behind the freight trains until the next siding.

    31. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If global warming is a religion then it's an awesome religion because it's got actual evidence to back it up.

    32. Re:HSR by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No doubt the aerodynamics of trains has been studied and they've produced data that tells them how fast they can run the trains in various wind conditions. But the big difference between a train and an airplane is the airplane moves in 3 dimensions and it's the vertical dimension (which trains don't have) that is the most dangerous.

    33. Re:HSR by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      100 mi is nothing. I've driven that far each way for lunch.

      Congratulations, you are officially part of the problem. I hope that there was at least a nooner included.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    34. Re:HSR by demonlapin · · Score: 1

      I've driven a lot farther than that for sex... but it was great sex.

  7. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by iggymanz · · Score: 1, Troll

    that would be the CPC climate predictions for over a decade, even the one to be released is backpedalling on core predictions

  8. Panning out like other past predictions probably by SuperKendall · · Score: 1, Troll

    Given how UK is not seeing "winters without snow" as "scientists" were also proclaiming at one point, I am taking the story of an alarming 100% increase in turbulence with more than a bit of salt.

    Even if it were the case I'm not sure how bad this really is. In multiple trans-atlantic flights I have yet to feel any turbulence, so even a number as scary as "100% increase" in turbulence does not really seem like that big a deal in context.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  9. Oh yea... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

    Of course. We need to add it to the list of problems this minor trace gas causes. It's really extraordinary stuff!

  10. Is it "climate change" getting warmer, or colder? by KirklesWorth · · Score: 0, Troll

    Wait - is it "climate change" as in "global warming", or "climate change" as in "nuclear winter"? Which meteorologists' turn is it to flip the scare coin?

  11. Re:how many predictions have come true? by SJHillman · · Score: 2

    Global warming involves temperature changes on the scale of a couple of degrees over decades... it's not something you'll really notice on a personal scale even over 25 years. It's more likely your beach water is part of a fairly localized change that may or may not be the result of the overall GW picture.

  12. But I welcome turbulence! by tibit · · Score: 1

    I, for one, quite enjoy the mid-range turbulence. It helps me sleep better on the plane. By mid-range I mean stuff that's strong enough to move things around on your table, yet not strong enough to accelerate the decline in airframe's fatigue life by a factor of 10. Assuming that a normal non-turbulence flight is affecting the fatigue life at "realtime" rate (no speedup), a flight with turbulence I find unacceptable would be equivalent, in terms of fatigue life use, to 10 normal flights of same duration. Someone with knowledge in aerospace structures could perhaps chime in as to whether the factor of 10 is a realistic one, or should it be a larger one.

    --
    A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
  13. Re:Panning out like other past predictions probabl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I really wish there were a "-1 scare quotes".

  14. Re:how many predictions have come true? by Aonghus142000 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Keep going back. I can remember from my childhood in the '70s, the warnings about the new ice age that was coming if we kept burning fossil fuels. Funny how the solution for warming (Global Warming) and cooling (Ice Age) were exactly the same. Remarkable stuff, this CO2, it can make things hotter and colder, must be some kind of molecular thermos. :P

  15. In other news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    ... "climate change" will also: Kill cats, dogs, babies, cause record lows (and highs), low birth weights, high birth weights, socks disappearing then reappearing, my underwear fitting tighter (and looser), unprecedented increase in the size (and shrinkage) of the male anatomy, massive increases in Al Gore's bank account and wealthy White Liberals' guilt (the two are tightly correlated), raising and lowering of sea levels, rain, snow, sleet, heat, hail, mist, unprecedented bird migration, hot weather, cold weather, and, last but hardly not least, nothing at all.

    Ugh. I'll be glad when the religion of AGW "climate change" / "global warming" / "YOU'RE KILLING THE PLANET SO YOU NEED TO CUT OFF ALL TECHNOLOGY" (they say via their iPhones, Facebook, Twitter, etc. accounts, all of which require massive amounts of energy to run) is utterly and completely discredited, as it's well on its way to being.

    1. Re:In other news... by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      What a delightful group of strawmen.

      Tell me, do you think the universe gives one flying fuck about liberals versus conservatives. Do you honestly think nature cares one fucking tiny little bit about your political ideology?

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:In other news... by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Exactly. This is why the Earth stopped warming nearly twenty years ago, even though the Warmists were telling us the sky was about to fall if we didn't destroy the Western economy.

    3. Re:In other news... by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      STRAWMAN ARMY, CHAAAAARGE!!!

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    4. Re:In other news... by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1
      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    5. Re:In other news... by clarkkent09 · · Score: 1

      The universe doesn't but you are naive if you think that the climate change debate here on Earth, and on both sides, is immune from politics. There is plenty of history of the "environmentalist" lobby, i.e. mostly left groups, using bogus or exaggerated environment related issues to drive their political agenda. See "peak oil" fiasco as an example. I don't know if you are old enough to remember but it was all the rage in the 70s. They are now even publicly lamenting that there is enough oil after all for "capitalism to continue", making it pretty obvious what their true intentions were.

      --
      Negative moral value of force outweighs the positive value of good intentions.
    6. Re:In other news... by MightyMartian · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I don't give a flying fuck about the environmentalist lobby. I'm talking about the overwhelming majority of climatologists and what they say. Trying to assert that climatologists are part of some evil liberal conspiracy to destroy the economy makes about as much as sense as Creationists claiming biologists are part of some evil liberal conspiracy to destroy Christianity.

      In short, you're picking the low hanging fruit (which is the green movement), and insisting that the actual scientists are somehow part of a large political cabal. I reject that completely, just as I reject Creationists' claims that biologists are part of some atheistic cabal to bring down religion.

      Again, I repeat, the universe doesn't give one fucking shit about your political leanings. They are utterly meaningless. If releasing hundreds of millions of years of sequestered carbon in the space of three centuries of industrial activity is seriously influencing global climate, then that's what is happening, and that's the end of the sentence. How we choose to deal with it is the political aspect, but we are gravely stupid species if we somehow think that any particular economic system is somehow favored by the universe, and that seems to be where your problem lies. The universe will kill a Libertarian just as quickly as it will kill a Conservative, a Liberal, a Socialist or a Communist. It does not fucking care about politics.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    7. Re:In other news... by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Oh good grief. Either you're a liar or a gullible moron.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    8. Re:In other news... by clarkkent09 · · Score: 1

      Strange that in one post you are accusing others of strawman tactics while in the very next post you build couple of your own strawmen by accusing global warming "doubters" of a) asserting that "climatologists are part of some evil liberal conspiracy to destroy the economy" and b) somehow thinking that political thinking influences behavior of nature (?!).

      While the first accusation is somewhat understandable given the wilder claims of the nuttier section of the right wing (which should in fairness be discounted in the same way you are discounting the nutty environmental extremists), the second accusation is puzzling and yet you keep repeating it over and over again. The issue is obviously the political implications of the actions proposed to supposedly combat the global warming, not somehow thinking that liberal thinking "causes" global warming. Can you give me one example of somebody even claiming the latter?

      Anyway, it is the overall chain of reasoning that is the suspect in my opinion:

      a) Global temperatures are increasing (more or less universally accepted fact - except for above mentioned nuts) ->
      b) This is mostly caused by human carbon emissions (not a generally accepted fact with solid proof behind it, just a very, very, very often repeated assertion) ->
      c) This has serious negative consequences for the planet (the "negative" part is simply stated with little evidence, the "serious" part is often vastly exaggerated without any evidence) ->
      d) There are specific policy actions proposed involving centralization of the global power through UN, global taxation system levied mostly on developed countries, and in general great increase of government control over private industrial activity (zero evidence that they will make any difference to the global warming, and if they do that the difference will be measurable and even if it is that the benefits will outweigh the cost)

      The problem is that people are jumping from a) to d) and that is just about as scientific as some of the wilder claims of the extremist fringes that you like to shoot down.

      --
      Negative moral value of force outweighs the positive value of good intentions.
    9. Re:In other news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    10. Re:In other news... by L.+J.+Beauregard · · Score: 1

      massive increases in Al Gore's bank account

      DRINK!

      --
      Ooh, moderator points! Five more idjits go to Minus One Hell!
      Delendae sunt RIAA, MPAA et Windoze
    11. Re:In other news... by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      You link me to a 100% un-cited article that simply pretends oceanic heating is not a real thing, in response to a well-cited article that points out the very facts you're ignoring?

      Get the fuck outta here.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    12. Re:In other news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your argument is with the Met Office. You know, the people you have been worshiping for the last 15 years? The one's who Skeptical Science often quotes...well, before they admitted that there has been no warming. I guess Skepticalscience will start calling them shills for the oil industry and deniers eh?

      You stupid little punk mother fucker. Can't admit that the data is against you. Go back to your Gameboy, that's about all you are qualified for.

    13. Re:In other news... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What you don't realize is that the speed and scale of heat transfer between the oceans and atmosphere is such that you have to include both in any rational measurement of global warming. On average over 90% of global warming is going into the oceans and the total Joules of heat energy in the oceans and atmosphere together continues to rise.

  16. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

    Do you actually believe that, or are you just parroting some pseudo-skeptic's nonsense?

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  17. Re:how many predictions have come true? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    i first read about global warming sometime around 1990. have any of the original predictions come true?

    so far i have noticed that the water at the beach in NYC is colder compared to the 80's

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Observed_temperature_changes

  18. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Sique · · Score: 1, Insightful
    [Citation needed]

    As far as I can remember, the predictions became worse for some time and now get a little less negative, but are still worse than at the begin of the 2000s. It wouldn't call that backpedalling.

    --
    .sig: Sique *sigh*
  19. One more for the warmlist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    'Turbulence' not previously noted on the list.

  20. Re:how many predictions have come true? by Sique · · Score: 1, Informative

    Differently than you, I actually remember the warnings about the new Ice Age, putting it somewhere between 3000 AD and 5000 AD. This in no way conflicts with a continious warming until 2100 AD.

    --
    .sig: Sique *sigh*
  21. Question by Sparticus789 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How do researchers know what turbulence was like in the pre-industrial era? Unless Ancient Astronomers took the readings and handed them down to us in carved stone tablets, we are merely GUESSING what the turbulence was like.

    --
    sudo make me a sandwich
    1. Re:Question by poofmeisterp · · Score: 1

      How do researchers know what turbulence was like in the pre-industrial era? Unless Ancient Astronomers took the readings and handed them down to us in carved stone tablets, we are merely GUESSING what the turbulence was like.

      Due to the passing of the ice age, I imagine the air was lighter than it is today. Oh, but there was also more pressure equalization due to temperature variations between night and day, so I guess it's turbulent in some areas and not in others, weather systems included. Oh, wait.. that's the same as it is today. /snark ;)

    2. Re:Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They same way the 'know' what the turbulence will be in the future, or right now?

      You start with a climate model that represents the atmosphere (matches relevant observations) today and in the past, and predicts the future (by predicting historical data as if it were the 'future'). Then you use the same climate model to predict the climate with (approx.) 200ppm of CO2 (pre-industrial), and 400ppm (today), and 500ppm (e.g., future). You calculate the same measures of turbulence using each model and compare them.

      They're not guessing what the turbulence was. They're taking a good representation of the current and past atmosphere, using that as a guide for the future atmosphere. Using the model of today's atmosphere, along with measurements of today's turbulence, to predict both future and past *with confidence limits*. The confidence limits explain how likely, under the scenarios tested, their prediction is correct.

      captcha: carbons !

    3. Re:Question by khallow · · Score: 1

      They're taking a good representation of the current and past atmosphere, using that as a guide for the future atmosphere.

      They don't have that yet. You see where we're going with this "guessing" thing?

    4. Re:Question by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Interesting. So you're saying a theory can't make predictions?

      Care to tell me where you got your education? I want to make sure my kids are educated as far away from the logical black hole that you grew up in as possible.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    5. Re:Question by khallow · · Score: 1

      So you're saying a theory can't make predictions?

      It can indeed. We would be correct to call those "guesses" in the absence of evidence.

    6. Re:Question by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Why should we call them guesses? They are predictions. If they are right, then they further support the theory. If they are wrong, then they indicate some issue (small or large) with the theory.

      Do you think predictions yet to be confirmed by General Relativity like gravitational waves are just merely guesses?

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    7. Re:Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, they sure as shit don't seem to be able to with regards to Global Warming now can they?

      Don't even talk about their so-called "models". And if you want to call the predictions, call them inaccurate predictions because they haven't gotten anything right yet.

    8. Re:Question by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

      Did you have something sensible to say, or is aping liars and morons about the best you can do?

      I pity you, so fucking stupid, and yet just enough neural hardware to show how contemptibly moronic you are on web forums.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    9. Re:Question by khallow · · Score: 1

      Why should we call them guesses?

      I assumed, apparently incorrectly, that you wanted accurate terms for the process.

      Do you think predictions yet to be confirmed by General Relativity like gravitational waves are just merely guesses?

      There's a lot more backing up the model of GR than there is for climate models, including many observations of various predicted GR effects.

    10. Re:Question by Sparticus789 · · Score: 1

      These same climate/weather models are a guessing science. Last month, the Washington DC area was supposed to be hit with a 12-18 inch snowstorm. The federal government shut down. When I awoke that day, I had 4 inches of snow on the ground. The same people writing this study are the same people that cannot predict how much snow will fall 12 hours before the storm starts. What makes you think they can go back 300 years and predict the weather with any degree of accuracy?

      --
      sudo make me a sandwich
    11. Re:Question by Sparticus789 · · Score: 1

      The logical fallacy with "predicting" what turbulence was like 300 years ago is that there is no possible method of testing it. You have a hypothesis with no way of confirming. We cannot observe every air current on the planet at any given time today. Our ancestors 300 years ago had no method of taking atmospheric readings, save for what their eyes could see. It is easy to make guesses when there is no possible method of proving me wrong.

      I could sit here and guess that the San Francisco 49ers are going to win the Superbowl. And if I did that every year since 1967, I would be right 12% of the time. There is no science behind that method, just plain guessing.

      --
      sudo make me a sandwich
    12. Re:Question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You start with a climate model that's imperfect, then you take your imperfect model and hand it to someone who doesn't really understand the model and ask them to translate it into a computer program.
      Run the computer model, complete with the impossible to avoid coding mistakes, and feed a bunch of second and third hand data into the program thus producing your prediction.
      Discover mistakes in coding and attempt to correct them; forget to do regression testing.
      Make changes in the model; incorporate them into the code with out accounting for the previous bug fixes, also do no regression testing. Re-feed bad data into the computer model.
      Take prediction of doom and apply for more grant money. Feel really good about how you're saving the world. GOTO 10.

  22. even more turbulence by olegalexandrov · · Score: 1
    > As a result of pilots needing to dodge strong turbulence, flight paths will become longer, and fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will increase—possibly leading to even more turbulence."

    To say that the longer flight paths will add enough carbon dioxide to increase the turbulence even more is just plain silly. This is a second order effect.

    1. Re:even more turbulence by poofmeisterp · · Score: 1

      > As a result of pilots needing to dodge strong turbulence, flight paths will become longer, and fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will increase—possibly leading to even more turbulence."

      To say that the longer flight paths will add enough carbon dioxide to increase the turbulence even more is just plain silly. This is a second order effect.

      And I think that clearly labels the article as "stretching AND milking 'it'". ;)

  23. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by NatasRevol · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Pretty obvious when there's a sentence like this " Even this year major factors have been discovered that render all previous models void"

    ALL? Really?

    --
    There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
  24. Re:Is it "climate change" getting warmer, or colde by Sique · · Score: 1
    The nuclear winter will happen if we decide to start a nuclear war right now. If we can put off the nuclear war, then there will be no nuclear winter.

    This is a completely different problem than global warming.

    Or to put it in words more accessible to you: A warning that you might burn yourself when setting that can of gasoline on fire does in no way offset the validity of the warning that you might freeze to death if you get completely drunk and then decide to walk 25 miles through a dark North Canadian winter night.

    --
    .sig: Sique *sigh*
  25. Re:how many predictions have come true? by NatasRevol · · Score: 1

    Uh, global warning is not measured at 'the beach in NYC'

    Not that you even have records for that.

    --
    There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
  26. Other effects of climate change by Shompol · · Score: 1
    Let's see:

    1. Turbulence increase, making air travel uncomfortable

    2. Rice fields drying up worldwide, resulting in mass starvation and war for resources, with prime overpopulated countries having access to nuclear arms.

    Not sure which one worries me more... nuclear holocaust vs coffee spilled on my crotch... Nah let our children figure out the mess, load up those coal power plants!

    1. Re:Other effects of climate change by poofmeisterp · · Score: 0

      Let's see:

      1. Turbulence increase, making air travel uncomfortable

      2. Rice fields drying up worldwide, resulting in mass starvation and war for resources, with prime overpopulated countries having access to nuclear arms.

      Not sure which one worries me more... nuclear holocaust vs coffee spilled on my crotch... Nah let our children figure out the mess, load up those coal power plants!

      Studies say suicide rates will quintuple in the next 30 years. I don't think your children need to worry about all of that "clean up the mess of earlier generations" crud! ;)

  27. The problem with people like yourself by arcite · · Score: 1

    ...who believe in conspiracy theories, is that no amount of evidence will change your mind as you are not a rational person. Thankfully, people like yourself are in the vast majority. One wonders what a persona such as yourself is doing reading a site like Slashdot in the first place. Or are you just here to troll? A sad existence either way.

    1. Re:The problem with people like yourself by plover · · Score: 2

      Shilling is not a bad existence. You get paid by your masters to argue in favor of their position, and you can ignore whatever other facts may make that position seem harmful over the long term, because you are able to spend their money today.

      He doesn't have to be directly in their pockets, of course. Perhaps he believes that by shilling for the Koch Brothers that he'll get cheaper gas or lower taxes. Maybe he prefers their flavor of John Birch racism. Whatever the reason, for him it's "profitable" in the short term, and he truly doesn't care about the long term. So he's not going anywhere. Best tactic is to ignore him.

      --
      John
  28. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by MightyMartian · · Score: 1

    This is what is commonly known as a quote mine. Care to put that back in context, with full citations.

    My goodness, you deniers are just as bad as Creationists.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  29. Re:how many predictions have come true? by alen · · Score: 0

    so why is the temperature in 1900 normal and today its too warm?

    maybe the last few hundreds years were really too cold and the world is going back to normal?

  30. Re:how many predictions have come true? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    i first read about global warming sometime around 1990. have any of the original predictions come true?

    Temperture is up about 0.7C since then, which is right on the predictions. http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/

  31. Chemtrails by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See subject line.

  32. Re:how many predictions have come true? by tbannist · · Score: 2, Informative

    [citation needed]

    There was some concern that we might be entering a natural cooling cycle or that if aerosol emissions continued to increase we could trigger an ice age (they decreased), however, even as far back as 1969 global warming was the more widely published and accepted theory. You might be confusing "scientifically illiterate reporters" with "scientists".
    Citation provided

    --
    Fanatically anti-fanatical
  33. Re:how many predictions have come true? by i_ate_god · · Score: 1

    because it has only been recently that humanity has started releasing millions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Millions of tonnes that took millions of years to sequester, all being released in a very short period of time.

    --
    I'm god, but it's a bit of a drag really...
  34. False Memory Syndrome? by cirby · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I was studying ecology in the mid-1970s, and the panic then was certainly "the ice age is coming NOW!"

    If you're "remembering" the predictions as being 3000-5000 AD, then you're probably recalling the "normal" ice age predictions of the time. The panic-mongers were claiming that the ice age was already starting to happen in the 1970s, and that we'd be well frozen over by 2000 or so.

    1. Re:False Memory Syndrome? by GameboyRMH · · Score: 4, Informative

      You were studying ecology and didn't know those predictions were nonsense made by a crackpot? The "Ice Age scare" was about as popular in the scientific community as the 2012 Mayan apocalypse theories.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    2. Re:False Memory Syndrome? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then you'd better ask the CIA why they funded those big studies on ways to divert it - including creating a vast lake in the central Sahara. Last I heard, government bodies don't do that because of some half-baked theory which isn't true...

      Oh, wait - they ARE supporting the AGW hypothesis. Which is less true than the 1970s scare, because at least it got colder in the 1970s. It's not getting hotter now, of course...

    3. Re:False Memory Syndrome? by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      The CIA funded studies on killing goats by staring at them and using psychic powers to spy on the Russians too.

      And I'm sure anyone else you've shared your "not getting hotter now" belief with would have corrected you and you just choose to continue ignoring what science has to say, much like the CIA researchers.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    4. Re:False Memory Syndrome? by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      And I am sure you are ready to provide some quotes from peer-reviewed papers from the seventies that supports your claim. Also, I am sure that you are ready to provide a quick review of the literature back then that will show that this actually was an opinion that was taken seriously. Thank Cthulhu that you are ready for that, lest someone would call you a liar.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    5. Re:False Memory Syndrome? by cirby · · Score: 1

      "You were studying ecology and didn't know those predictions were nonsense made by a crackpot?"

      One of my advisors is one of the current Big Names in AGW - and he was the one who told me about the coming ice age.

      So yeah, crackpot.

    6. Re:False Memory Syndrome? by hkmwbz · · Score: 2

      Except the research overwhelmingly showed that the planet would be warming, even in the 70s. What's with the cherry-picking?

      --
      Clever signature text goes here.
  35. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Other mods didn't get the joke, apparently.

  36. List of Global Warming Induced Problems by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's not hard to see the utter nonsense behind the whole "global warming" farce with stuff like this:

    List of Things Caused by "Global Warming"

  37. Global warming and rails don't mix by cirby · · Score: 2

    If the high summer temps ever get around to climbing like the AGW folks claim, high speed rail will be pretty tough.

    You see, even with those highly-engineered rails, too much heat can cause expansion that warps the metal.

    Of course, we haven't seen an increase in such warming-caused warping.

    Odd, that.

    (No, it's not because the rails are so much better - HSR uses welded, continuous rail, which is more susceptible to that sort of thing)

    1. Re:Global warming and rails don't mix by GameboyRMH · · Score: 2

      If only the rails had small gaps in them to allow for thermal expansion...it's too bad we don't have such Star Trek technology. Rails could even be installed in places that experience the massive temperature changes between winter and summer! Imagine that!

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    2. Re:Global warming and rails don't mix by cirby · · Score: 2

      The problem is that those particular joints only work up to a point - at higher temperatures, they expand too far.

      With higher heating, you also get deformation in between the joints.

      The US has been using continuous-welded rails for decades now - yes, with various "breather" or "slip" fittings - and you still see warped and deformed rails each summer.

      Back in the heat wave of 2010, the German ICE system had to cancel some trips because heat warped the tracks...

    3. Re:Global warming and rails don't mix by Dr_Terminus · · Score: 1

      I thought it was because the ICE would melt on the hot tracks...

    4. Re:Global warming and rails don't mix by tbannist · · Score: 1

      Of course, we haven't seen an increase in such warming-caused warping.

      Are you in a position to know if we did? I'm not and I'm doubt the people who are (railway operators) have a compelling reason to publish that data.

      Back in the heat wave of 2010, the German ICE system had to cancel some trips because heat warped the tracks...

      It seems like your first and second statements may not be based on the same set of facts.

      When I looked for information on whether there was an increase, I did find a blog post about speeds being dropped near Washington in March of last year due to unseasonable weather related to an effect of global warming (the blocking pattern in the Arctic). It is an expected effect of gobal warming. I'm just not sure if anyone is actively monitoring that effect.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
  38. Wow now that's stretching it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In other news today, due to increased CO2 values, O2 values will increase by 2% due to more feeding of plant material, increasing animal intelligence and short-term memory by 24%.

    Citation? WHAT citation? I said CO2 - that's enough to warrant an immediate applause, right?

    1. Re:Wow now that's stretching it by Colonel+Korn · · Score: 1

      In other news today, due to increased CO2 values, O2 values will increase by 2% due to more feeding of plant material, increasing animal intelligence and short-term memory by 24%.

      Citation? WHAT citation? I said CO2 - that's enough to warrant an immediate applause, right?

      This is even weaker than the typical AC rebuttal to this type of story because the story actually does have a citation and critics can access the paper and evaluate it based on its description of the source data, model, and stated assumptions.

      --
      "I zero-index my hamsters" - Willtor (147206)
  39. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by interkin3tic · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I could see two ways in which these studies are/will be wastes:

    1. By now, the studies are telling us what we already know, and aren't convincing policymakers or lobbyists to change because their opposition to curbing carbon dioxide emissions wasn't ever really based on skepticism of the science.

    2. When most of the developed world starts feeling the negative consequences, they'll do something to alleviate the problem. And it will be some short-sighted solution that no one really fully investigated. Like iron injection. To deal with the consequences of that will be a chain of other decisions terminating in gorillas freezing to death. The bill will be sent to people who weren't involved in the decision to ignore the early warnings about climate change anyway.

  40. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why is this modded as flaimbait?
    Three day forecasts are no better than 50-60% accurate, so why do so many people automatically and instantly believe studies that 'prove' something will happen years or decades from now?

  41. Re:Is it "climate change" getting warmer, or colde by poofmeisterp · · Score: 0

    Wait - is it "climate change" as in "global warming", or "climate change" as in "nuclear winter"? Which meteorologists' turn is it to flip the scare coin?

    The one needing grant money.

  42. Sounds like this paper's in the running... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...for an Ig Nobel prize.

  43. Re:how many predictions have come true? by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

    have any of the original predictions come true?

    Does it matter? We have little evidence that extra carbon and heat in the atmosphere will make our lives better, and plenty to the contrary. If the original predictions weren't very accurate, well I suppose that must be funny to some people rooting in favor of fossil fuels, but nobody "wins" either way.

  44. FUD, much? by argStyopa · · Score: 2, Informative

    Climate change will ruin the crops.
    Climate change will ruin crabs.
    Climate change will kill all the coral.
    Climate change will benefit or kill insects (whether they're considered pests or beneficial in that particular article, respectively).
    Climate change will cause areas to get wetter (if that would be bad).
    Climate change will cause other areas to desertify (if that would be bad).
    Climate change will make some places warmer (if that would be bad) or colder (if that would be bad).
    Climate change will cause (whatever animal or vegetable species is held fondly) to die off.
    Climate change will cause (whatever animal or vegetable species is nasty, disliked, or hated) to flourish.
    Climate change will cause your airline rides to be bumpier.
    Climate change will cause weather patterns to "change".
    Climate change will cause widespread war.
    Climate change will cause famine.
    Climate change will increase the rate of disease.
    Specifically, Climate change will cause more diarrhoea.
    Climate change will cause more snowfall (where that's bad), or reduce it (where that's bad).
    Climate change will cause more, bigger hurricanes and extreme weather events.
    Climate change will increase the number of volcanoes and earthquakes. (My personal favorite.)
    Climate change will increase the incidence of stress-related behaviors* and mental illness.
    *presumably, more mass killings since that's the fear-du-jour?
    Climate change will increase the level of particulates in the air, and generally decrease air quality everywhere.
    Climate change will raise the cost of (everything), including internet services and cable television.

    Did I miss any?

    I haven't yet heard how climate change will increase meteorite impacts, but I'm almost certain there's someone, somewhere working on a rationalization to "explain" that too.

    This list was assembled from the news reports I've paid attention to in JUST THE LAST 4 months.

    --
    -Styopa
    1. Re:FUD, much? by TechieRefugee · · Score: 1

      Climate change will increase the rate of climate related articles, movies, etc. There ya go!

    2. Re:FUD, much? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Climate change will increase the number of volcanoes and earthquakes.

      This one seemed a little too outrageous, so I looked it up. Sure enough, there's a book about it, published by Oxford University press. Written by a professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards. I'm not sure what that kind of professor does.

      Here's a summary he wrote of his book, if anyone wants to read it and figure out the connection. I sure can't figure it out.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:FUD, much? by Type44Q · · Score: 2

      Climate change will ruin crabs.

      Apparently, the following treatment is highly effective in such situations:

      Shave one testicle. Now light the other one on fire.

      All of the crabs will (of course) retreat to the shaved testicle; simply stab each one to death with an icepick as they appear...

    4. Re:FUD, much? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The connection appears pretty clear and reasonable. But it is on a time-scale that isn't relevant to humans, so it isn't reasonable to discuss it in the context of local and short-term changes that are and will happen and will effect our daily lives.

      This book argues that over long time scales when ice sheets melt, crustal deformation (isostatic rebound) will cause geologic-scale events like earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis (the last being caused by the first). Seems reasonable to me. Right now there are active volcanoes under Iceland glaciers. They do not have a direct impact on our atmosphere. Remove the ice and they do.

  45. Re:how many predictions have come true? by poofmeisterp · · Score: 1

    i first read about global warming sometime around 1990. have any of the original predictions come true?

    so far i have noticed that the water at the beach in NYC is colder compared to the 80's

    Where are mod points where I need 'em? You make a very astute point.

  46. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by khallow · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As far as I can remember

    So how many kilos of bullshit is your memory worth?

    As for me, I find it interesting how much of the most alarmist climate research comes out of two places, the University of East Anglia (this research) or the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in NASA (particularly, the James Hansen stuff).

  47. Flatly speaking by fyngyrz · · Score: 4, Funny

    It's plain that the plain the plane is flying above serves as a base for an infinite number of planes; which plane is it that the increased turbulence is in? Can the plane not fly above or below this plane? Can't a fella go off on a tangent around here?

    --Geometrically Challenged Guy

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    1. Re:Flatly speaking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These planes already tend to fly in the appropriate plane that allows them the least air resistance and therefore best fuel efficiency, as well as just plain plane comfort. As you can plainly see, the next step is to take the plane to a plane above the plane of the atmosphere. If there's no air, then plainly the air cannot cause plain plane turbulence.

    2. Re:Flatly speaking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No tangents of planes sir

  48. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Culture20 · · Score: 2

    Bullshit is commonly used to describe statements made by people more concerned with the response of the audience than in truth and accuracy, such as goal-oriented statements made in the field of politics or advertising.

    Bullshit. Bullshit is just a non-PC way of saying citation needed.

  49. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by NatasRevol · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure who you're referring to. Me making fun of the GGP, or the GGP who said that all previous models were void.

    --
    There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
  50. Idiots. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Disclaimer: I am a pilot. Yes, climate change will influence aviation.

    We might be able to debate whether turbulence will be an issue (but it makes sense when you're talking about how ocean temperatures affect the air above them), but warmer temperatures certainly adversely affect aircraft performance.

    All you nerds should know intuitively that warmer air is less dense. That means aircraft engines are less efficient, and wings provide less lift. Many factors of aircraft performance are determined by density altitude (which is pressure altitude adjusted for non-standard temperature). This means more distance is required for takeoffs and landings.

  51. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Troll

    If you are worried about the skeptics, all you have to do is point out all of the predictions made on global warming that have come true already.

    Such as "The Arctic will completely melt by September 2009" prediction. Now all we have to do is wait until September 2009 to prove all those skeptics wrong.

    Or the "Hockey Stick" graph that predicts a 0.5C temperature increase by 2010, and rapid increases every year after that. That should be easy to check when 2010 comes around.

    And don't forget the prediction of ever increasing hurricanes after Katrina. The year after that storm was predicted to be even more destructive than ever. Let's see how many destructive hurricanes occur in the year following Katrina.

    I can't imagine that any skeptics will be left after all these predictions come to pass.

  52. Re:how many predictions have come true? by plover · · Score: 2

    Yes, the climate changes over time naturally. There have been cyclic ice ages and warmings.

    But now the amount of change over time is increasing more than the historical records show occurred naturally in the past.

    Instead of looking just at your beach thermometer (which is only one set of data points on a very large globe), try reading up on paleoclimatology, and see how the history of planetary weather has been preserved in ice, rocks, and plants, and how researchers use the different forms of evidence to cross check their measurements. There is a lot of evidence out there if you know where to look.

    --
    John
  53. Fear and Dread,.... by PortHaven · · Score: 1

    Our sodas are going to get more bubbly all because of Climate Change. You see, there will be more CO2 in the air. And therefore less CO2 can be absorbed by the air. And therefore less CO2 will be released into the air by our carbonated beverage. Thus resulting in a measurable, but imperceptible, amount of increased carbonation 30 minutes after a soda can has been opened.

    Also, pigeons are going to fart louder because of global warming. (More dense air.)

  54. Climate Change Will Boost Flatulence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Warming climate leads to increased flatulence according to experts in relavant fields. There is consensus, scientists say. Dasterdly anti-anthropogenic flatulence campaing expected from well financed Beef lobby. Panic to ensue.

  55. "Hydrogen Sonata" by Iain M. Banks covers this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    About page 280 he discusses the problem of modeling the future, given huge computer power.

    There are 2 choices of models : either one models the physical reality in careful detail or one has averaging functions. Detailed models necessarily have chaos built in, in which case the results vary wildly and the modeler has to apply averaging or a selection function.

    The choice of averaging or selection functions, in both approaches to modeling, determines the actual real-world usefulness of the models. There is no a priori way of knowing what averaging functions are useful.

    It seems to me there is little discussion of the effects of different averaging functions in climate model, and not enough history to know which will be useful.

    In any case, it is easy to build models, and very difficult to know their relationship to external reality.

  56. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

    Bullshit is commonly used to describe statements made by people more concerned with the response of the audience than in truth and accuracy, such as goal-oriented statements made in the field of politics or advertising.

    Bullshit. Bullshit is just a non-PC way of saying citation needed.

    It is a derogatory term for a despicable practice.

    --
    This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
  57. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I hope you idiots all fall for the cheap beach house offers and drown once the sea levels' rise accelerates.

  58. Yeah, they have to be actual predictions. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So please try again.

    "Such as "The Arctic will completely melt by September 2009" prediction." ONE paper said it COULD be. Most say by 2050. 2035 is looking pretty unlikely, now: 2020 is possible.

    "Or the "Hockey Stick" graph that predicts a 0.5C temperature increase by 2010". Yup, 0.7-1.2C. Hardly an alarmist prediction given it was under the actual figure.

    "And don't forget the prediction of ever increasing hurricanes after Katrina." Bullshit. Doubling of the KATRINA LEVEL STORM SURGE.

    This is why "skeptics" (nee deniers) will never change their beliefs: they make up the statements of the science just so as to be able to say "See! Never happened!!!".

    1. Re:Yeah, they have to be actual predictions. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      now: 2020 is possible

      Just so you know, the Arctic won't completely melt during then next 2500 days. If you're really believing stuff like that, well... I don't know what to say.

  59. Well, you're wrong right off the bat. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Weather not climate.

    Shit, when you heat water, when PRECISELY will it start boiling and where will the bubbles form (and when)?

    THAT is weather.

    Will it boil?

    THAT is climate.

  60. Except they never claimed that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Only denier fuckwits like yourself claim it being said by others.

    ++++
    According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

    "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
    ++++

    Now let me ask you: do you think the UK had a lot of snow in the Cambrian Era? No.
    Has the UK seen less frequent snowfall? Yes.
    Has the snowfall caused chaoes? Yes.

  61. PS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ps the hockey stick NEVER PREDICTED ANYTHING.

    It was a record of PAST TEMPERATURES.

    FFS you lunatic.

  62. Re:Is it "climate change" getting warmer, or colde by KirklesWorth · · Score: 1

    The point was, the scare tactic in the 1970's was "nuclear winter". The scare tactic now is the non-committal "climate change" which defines absolutely nothing. Climate is change. Apparently "global warming" was too specific and had evidence to the contrary, so the newer vogue vague term (I should coin that phrase) is "climate change".

  63. Dots don't look connected to me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The climate 'scientists'

    1) have the land temperature measurements fairly well figured out for the last few hundred years.
          (Maybe less so for the last few thousand years.)

    2) are just starting to agree on the sea surface temps which will get the majority of the surface temps.
                (Ships logs will get them back a couple of hundred years, and may get some other weather info to boot.)

    3) Histories of ocean current and upper air temps are not on the table?

    Even with all this, making a model to explain what just happened is a challenge.
        Making a model to predict what might happen seems a bit optimistic.
              (Even predicting the overall average trend requires an understanding of the underling mechanism like how a not recently seen major change in ocean currents will move the jet stream.)

    Our CO2 could be causing the tipping point for the next ice age,
              but we don't have weather models to know it is ultimately going to make things hotter or colder.
        (The land heating trend could melt the North which might make things cooler overall.)
    (Of course, neither extreme heat or cold is good for folks accustomed to things as they are.)

    We need reliable models before disrupting society to 'improve' the predicted outcome.

    This continual drum beat of silly model predictions is detracting from the scientific credibility climate scientists in general.
          If ecologists want to put attention on CO2 emissions to try to save the planet,
                I wish they would do so without drawing credibility from the folks who might actually save it.

    Hopefully we will get an understanding before we so something dumb like put the CO2 down in wells, or turn off the light and heat.

  64. Ouch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That'll leave a mark...

  65. B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T!!!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You were studying ecology and didn't know those predictions were nonsense made by a crackpot? The "Ice Age scare" was about as popular in the scientific community as the 2012 Mayan apocalypse theories.

    BULLSHIT

    Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

    And guess what? One of your "crackpot[s]" was none other than NASA's own James Hanson.

    Let me guess - Google is too difficult for you to use?

    If Google isn't too difficult for you to use, you're deliberately and willfully ignorant.

    1. Re:B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T!!!!! by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Your post doesn't address mine. You've referenced some general atmospheric effects of CO2 and aerosols, I was talking about the '70s "global cooling" scare:

      http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2008-02-20-global-cooling_N.htm

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    2. Re:B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T!!!!! by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Because I do know how to use Google I know that the study was shot down almost immediately. The people behind it realized their mistakes. Yet you think the fact that this was ever published overturns the majority opinion in the scientific community at the time, suggests that this mistake can never be taken back and can forever ride on the reputations of the publishers, and apparently that all crackpot predictions of an imminent ice age are legitimized by proxy...no wonder your reasoning, and by extension your understanding of science, is so fucked up.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    3. Re:B-U-L-L-S-H-I-T!!!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I doubt James Hansen would repudiate that statement even now. It was predicated on a fourfold increase in aerosol concentrations that didn't happen and wasn't predicted to happen. It doesn't contradict AGW at all.

  66. We need nuclear powered aircraft NOW! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In the early/mid 1960's, the US government looked at nuclear powered aircraft. Because the available technology at the time was not sufficient to create a nuclear powered aircraft engine, it was deemed infeasible, and development stopped. In the last 50 years, materials science, developments in nuclear technology and progress in general has brought the nuclear powered aircraft into the range of possible. Longer range, heavier payloads (hundreds of gallons of kerosene weighs more than a few ounces of material), and molten salt reactors are low-radiation and inherently safe (as the reaction temperature increases, reactions slow down), and low pressure systems means lighter materials, less shielding, and safer environments. Having range in years rather than hours means safer flights too. Hurricane in your way? Fly around it!

    1. Re:We need nuclear powered aircraft NOW! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sometimes planes crash. Splashing molten salt laced with reactor fuel around is a big problem. Rad waste of that sort will give a lethal dose in seconds as close proximity.

  67. No by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  68. And you're a time traveller...? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And you know this because you're a time traveller?

  69. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Radical environmentalists take over a science and use it to further their agenda. Now that it seems things aren't as they so confidently predicted they have become the new deniers.

  70. No, you'd be wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "We would be correct to call those "guesses" in the absence of evidence."

    No, a prediction never has evidence. Because it's in the FUTURE. Unless you're a fourth-dimentional pan galactic being like the common house mice, you do not have evidence of a prediction when that prediction is made.

    Moreover, you're wrong saying that these models and theories have never had evidence of the predictions of the past coming true.

    Svante Arrhenius in 1896 said that if CO2 increased, this would cause warming.

    In the 2000's it has.

  71. Re:how many predictions have come true? by Ash+Vince · · Score: 2

    i first read about global warming sometime around 1990. have any of the original predictions come true?

    so far i have noticed that the water at the beach in NYC is colder compared to the 80's

    Yes, sea levels have risen due to there being less ice covering the poles of the planet.

    Also, a local temperature of water in one place going down does not actually preclude the planets average temperature having gone up as it is quite big.

    The real thing to remember about climate change though is that there is only really one certainty and that is that the already extreme weather events you experience will become far more extreme due to there being more energy in the atmosphere (even cold weather events as increased wind chill causes temperatures to feel colder even if the are actually slightly warmer)

    --
    I dont read /. to RTFA, I read /. to offend people in ignorance.
  72. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fuck citations. No, you want us to spend money on this bullshit then it is you who are required to *prove* your position beyond doubt first. You (collectively) have totally failed.

    And it's fucking cold, I *want* some fucking AGW. Here's a clue genius, things grow better when it's warm and it's good for people.

    Now fuck off.

  73. Re:Is it "climate change" getting warmer, or colde by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The point was, the scare tactic in the 1970's was "nuclear winter". The scare tactic now is the non-committal "climate change" which defines absolutely nothing. Climate is change. Apparently "global warming" was too specific and had evidence to the contrary, so the newer vogue vague term (I should coin that phrase) is "climate change".

    Climate is actually not change. It's the relatively stable long term trends in wether.

    Global warming, is the prediction that the average temperature over the whole Earth will increase over time. Global Climate change, is the term used to shut up the "it's currently cold outside so much for global warming" and the "my neiborhood has been getting colder over time so much for global warming" crowds who are otherwise treated as insightful by morons who don't understand the scale of global climate or the concept of averages.

  74. And Global Warming Causes... by rally2xs · · Score: 1

    Crotch rot. herpes, navel fuzz, athlete's foot, excessive nose hair, etc. etc. Call me back in 100 years when you really figure it out...

  75. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by iggymanz · · Score: 0

    the UN's IPCC used U of East Anglia's numbers, look it up, great BBC interviews exposing the follies

    My memory is excellent, been following this climate change study since 1990, and the flip-flopping has been enormous: climate change will cause floods, in a year of flooding. climate change will cause droughts, in years of drought; climate change will cause stronger hurricanes, in period of strong hurricanes, etc. but now they say climate change will cause ever so much moreso all of the above

  76. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by khallow · · Score: 1

    But you see, that's the power of a great theory. It explains everything you want to explain when you need to and generates a few tens of billions of dollars a year in public funding for your societal engineering schemes.

  77. No problem by manu0601 · · Score: 1

    At one time there will not be any oil left, therefore air travel will vanish, and the problem will only happen for birds and zepplins.

  78. Re:how many predictions have come true? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No, it just seems colder because you're gettin' older.

  79. Airships! by xenobyte · · Score: 2

    Bring back airships! - Perhaps equipped with jet engines... They are not susceptible to air turbulence as far as I know.

    --
    "For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong." -- H.L. Mencken (1880-1956) --
    1. Re:Airships! by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      that'll do until we run out of helium.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  80. preindustrial turbulence level by someoneOtherThanMe · · Score: 1

    Yes, lucky Wright brothers and Icarus for enjoying the smooth flights of the preindustrial era...

  81. 30 years for climate trends. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not 15. Not 10. 30.

    But go ahead and spit out the man-wad that you took from Anthony Watts.

  82. Voodoo Science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How come they never publish the math behind the statements? All these comments about the doubling of turbulence lead one to believe they are studying the atmosphere of Venus. But then again, didn't 'The Economist' backpedal from its firm position on climate change just a few days ago? Something about the raw data being increasingly different from the averaged.

  83. Re:Panning out like other past predictions probabl by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    SuperKendall

    - Slashdot's most rabid Apple zealot
    - Believer in biblical fairy tales
    - Denier of climate change
    - Hater of fact, reason, and science
    - All round retard

    Coming to a site near you... already.

    Tell me, are you proud to be so intellectually challenged?

  84. Global Warming is a scam. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Global Warming is a necessary cover for the weather modification they are doing through various means.

  85. Re:Panning out like other past predictions probabl by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

    What scientists proclaimed winters without snow in the UK?

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    Clever signature text goes here.
  86. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

    Ok... The Hockey Stick didn't predict anything. It showed past temperatures. So I guess that shows just how credible your claims are in general, eh?

    --
    Clever signature text goes here.
  87. Re:or, like most of the tens of thousands of model by hkmwbz · · Score: 1

    Are they flip-flopping, or are you simply misrepresenting their position?

    --
    Clever signature text goes here.
  88. already been determined by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plane.

  89. Re:how many predictions have come true? by gzuckier · · Score: 1

    "There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then."
    -THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

    --
    Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  90. The Saddest Life Of All by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure why you seem to think I am religious in any way, just another example of you being unable to think of people's beliefs outside of your little pre-conceived box. What I am not, unlike yourself, is bigoted towards those that are religious - I am actually tolerant of others beliefs, unlike so many that proclaim tolerance while speaking hate.

    I have the courage to say what I believe, you hide behind the AC wall of shame and cower from truly believing anything. I am firmly grounded, all of my beliefs come from lots of research and a deep understanding of what science really is - yours come from the winds of what popular people tell you to think, paid for by sponsors of the status quo. How much sadder your life than someone like me who is right 90% of the time and tells people the facts before the facts are readily apparent or popular.

    Do you enjoy life at all I wonder? It cannot be so; someone so full of fear and hate, in the end it has to spill into everything you do, into all you touch.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley