ZDNet Proclaims "Windows: It's Over"

plastick writes "You can think Windows 8 will evolve into something better, but the numbers show that Windows is coming to a dead end. ZDNet is known to take the side of Microsoft in the past. Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols explains: 'The very day the debate came to an end, this headline appeared: IDC: Global PC shipments plunge in worst drop in a generation. Sure, a lot of that was due to the growth of tablets and smartphones and the rise of the cloud, but Windows 8 gets to take a lot of the blame too. After all, the debate wasn't whether or not Windows 8 was any good. It's not. The debate was over whether it could be saved.'"

Comments

Whats the alternative?

[Anonymous Coward]

Are people going to switch to Mac OS? Linux? Or stay on Windows 7 until a "spiritual successor" to Windows comes?

The article largely hinges on "Windows 8 comes out != PC hardware sales drop". Its just trolling for readers.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[chromaexcursion]

There will likely be a market for Windows for quite some time.
Many businesses want a desktop/traditional laptop OS. Windows fills that need.
It is unlikely they'd switch to Linux, not while the distro wars are still going on. There needs to be stability for business to invest the time to switch. Apple keeps making decisions that businesses don't like

What's dead is the days when a new release of Windows drove PC sales.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[smash]

I switched to OS X on my desktop. For what I do, pretty much all the apps I need are available. Most of them cheap off the app store or actually free or included in the OS.

If i was bound to an existing bit of hardware, I'd migrate to Linux, but I'm not... like the Mac hardware and happen to like the OS, too. ALL operating systems have their problems/trade-offs, OS X is the least annoying for me.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[dingen]

Windows is like Facebook: users are fed up with it, but since there is no viable alternative, they stick around.

The second something does come up that looks like it could be "the next big thing" it will be, because users are ready to switch anyway.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[Shadow99_1]

Stardock loves to remind me regularly that for a couple of dollars I can have the start menu again in Windows 8... Though I'm not running windows 8 anywhere, so I have little need for their software. If a 3rd party can do it, I'm sure MS could as well... The question becomes do they want to do that. Personally I don't think they do, screenshots of Blue show that so far they haven't bothered.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[O('_')O_Bush]

Neither fan the continue diversifying while neglecting their bread and butter. They wanted to be more like Apple, so they made a shitty flop of a phone. They wanted to be more like Google, so they made a shitty flop of a search engine. And all that time, when they should have been making W7 better, they came out with a shitty flop of an OS.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[cheekyboy]

Wow they will add a /start_desktop to the default shell on boot. WOW

Hell, maybe they have two exes, explorer.exe and metro.exe , and you just have to set it to the right shell. Easy to add a gui for that, dont even have to compile C++ code, in less than 4kb of wscript code, you could probably do it.

OT: why isnt *ALL* the windows gui aspects coded in a scripts, so its easy to update/change/fix/customize.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[ByOhTek]

IIRC, you still need to install a classic start menu applet (3rd party), and if you want quicklaunch, you still need to install an app for that...

They exist, and you have options, but the options don't seem as good as the builtins for XP, and most users aren't going to bother going out and downloading them.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[jaymz666]

Really, are most users really just consumers? Do most users never need word to write a document, create a powerpoint or even just clip an image to share with family?

Most of the time, we may be consumers. How often do we produce data, images, documents etc.? I know for work I am documenting quite often, for classes I am creating content quite often. My wife spends a lot of time just creating icons for her various social networks.

I don't think it's that clear cut.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[dingen]

Don't forget the web though. Native software is becoming less relevant each passing year as more and more functionality is moved over to web applications and "the cloud". Google amongst others is pushing this as hard as they can and Chromebooks are a good example of how far this development already is. Lots of people have a computer just to use the web. That's also one of the reasons why tablets are such a success. It has much less to do with being a big version of your phone and much more with the fact tablets are a viable laptop-replacement because they offer a more convenient way for using the web.

Maybe Steve Jobs was right. From his appearance at D8 in 2010: "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."

In this future "PCs are like trucks"-world, Windows might never be replaced. But the majority of the people wont be using it all the time either.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[Sarten-X]

Hopefully they'll soon realize that the desktop and mobile platforms need different UI models

Meh... Call me argumentative if you like, but I'm not going to give up on the unified interface just yet. Rather weird, since I've previously argued strongly in favor of separate UIs.

I'll start by saying that every UI model we have today sucks. Some sucks less, and some sucks more, but everything has some degree of sucking to it. That said, I've been impressed by how the iOS interface scales between the iPhone and iPad form factors. My iPad was my first (modern) Apple device, and while its interface was a little awkward at times, it works decently well for its size, and scales gracefully down to the phone's smaller display. Some buttons disappear off the top of the screen, and some extra information just isn't displayed to save space, but it works well enough. Now if only I could remember which page that app I want is on...

I now think that ultimately, a unified interface is where we'll have to go, not necessarily because of today's corporate cost-cutting, but to reduce the learning curve as our most common devices become integrated. When I'm 85, I don't want to have to learn seven different UIs to make a pot of coffee, check my email, and get a weather forecast.

I expect that eventually, we'll settle on a single overarching design, preferably unencumbered by patents or copyright (here's looking at you, GNU), that is simply the standard interface on our devices in many different but similar forms. I'm reminded of the many variants and common theme of Star Trek's LCARS interface. After learning how the interface works, completing additional tasks are just a matter of telling the computer what to do, rather than figuring out how to communicate with the machine.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[Captain Hook]

The problem with Windows Phone isn't the OS or the hardware

Personally, the problem I have with Windows Phone isn't the OS or the hardware bit.. it's the MS bit.

As consumers, we had to put up with MS business practices for decades because there was no viable alternative, and everytime a reason alternative got going, a file format or API would mysteriously change breaking interoperability. This wasn't done for the customers benefit, it was done to keep MS in the dominate position.

I have no desire to see them... or anyone else... ever given such a dominate position within a market segment ever again, MS has proven themselves untrustworthy and hence neither I, nor anyone whose opinions I can influence on mobile technology (*1) will touch a phone/tablet from MS.

Note 1: Basically my parents and girlfriend, I'm the first to admit my influence does reach far, but if other geeks feel the same way my personal influence doesn't have to.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[mwvdlee]

To me, the question is what Microsoft will do with Win 9 (or whatever it will be called).
If they'll fix the user interface, I'll probably skip 8 and upgrade to 9 at some point.
If they won't, then Windows is a dead-end for professional users and I'll upgrade to Linux.
Currently I'm assuming the latter. I'm stuck on Win 7 for atleast one more year (due to external forces), but after that I'm planning to install Mint unless Microsoft surprises me by creating a worthy successor.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[RabidReindeer]

Oh, they realize that alright. But the thing is, Microsoft has never been about finding the technically best solution. They are trying to find the best "business" solution.

And that's what's killing them. Every businessman's nightmare is that his (her) product becomes a commodity. No longer a one-of-a-kind product that can be priced arbitrarily, but one that has to compete against an open market, where the lowest price is often the determining factor.

OS's have been trending towards commodification for years. With each release of each OS, the reasons for upgrading have become less and less compelling as the core featureset has become more and more complete. This is why "killer apps" are so important to OS's. Because the OS dream app is one that requires features unavailable except by upgrading the OS. Here, too, there are problems, since fewer and fewer killer apps make demands that the present-day OS's cannot fulfill. In fact, with the webification of apps, they're actually pretty much required to be that way. The days when a webapp could demand ActiveX controls and IE6 are fading into history.

So Microsoft is between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, unless they can come up with some startling new "must-have" ability to re-prime the pump, people are going to be resistant to paying for upgrades. On the other, their latest attempt to "must-have" is something that almost nobody thinks that they "must have". Quite the contrary. And, in fact, they've further damaged themselves in that for the first time ever, it's less traumatic for users to move to a competing OS than it is to stay comfortingly locked in to the MS Way.

Re:Whats the alternative?

[Sique]

WinNT and Win 3.11 shared just one thing, a subsystem called "Win32" (on NT) or "Win32s" (on Win3.11). The original WinNT had some other subsystems as well (one OS/2, one POSIX), but they died with the next versions. As far as I remember, WinNT once even passed the UNIX95 certification with its POSIX subsystem. Much later on, there were UNIX services running in Win2000 (I think), which probably has been a ressurection of the original POSIX subsystem.

WinNT was based on a kernel developed by Butler Lampson (ex DEC) and his team, and it borrowed much from VMS and from Mach2. I remember a course at the university, where we got introduced to the WinNT kernel. The original WinNT kernel could be compiled for x86 and for the DEC Alpha AXP processor. To run software compiled for Win32(s) on Alpha AXP, there was an emulator called FX!32.

So, there is no direct transition from Win 3.11 to WinNT 3.46, they were completely different beasts, and only the Win32(s) somehow glued them together, allowing them to run the same software coded against Win32(s).

Re:Whats the alternative?

[Joce640k]

Knowing Microsoft, they'll probably release SP2 for Win7, which puts the "Modern" UI on top of it too

The best part is it took them years to get people to use the built-in themes so apps would look right on every version of Windows, according to the user prefs.

Then they totally ignore it and render everything manually so it looks wrong everywhere. I just had a look at upgrading to Visual Studio 2012 (literally a few hours ago) and the IDE is now just a big grey square. Dark grey icons on a light grey background, even the title bar stays gray when the window is active. The file icons are grey huge 8-bit size pixels. It's ugly as sin.

Screenshot: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4f/Visual_Studio_Express_2012_for_Desktop.png

(Note that the popup dialog has different colors and styles than the main window - isn't that against their own guidelines?)

Colors give hints, they let you identify those little toolbar icons, they make you more productive. Yellow icon, open file. Blue icon, save. All the icons with red balls are related to each other ... something to do with breakpoints!

Now all that visual information has been thrown away (from "visual" studio, no less) and it just looks like death. What are they planning to do? Run it on EGA systems with only 8 colors?

If this is the future Windows mindset then it's dead, yes. If only Linux wasn't so fragmented and removed from store shelves...

If Windows is dead, then we're in deep shit

[Anonymous Coward]

Because the end of Windows would mean that there are only two alternatives left: 1) An open source operating system that has been shunned by practically all software companies which provide the software used by professionals. 2) An operating system which is made by a company that seems to raise prices whenever they run a risk of gaining market share, a company that wants to take a commission of every piece of software or data that is used with their products.

And... no big loss

[ByOhTek]

I like some Microsoft products, but honestly, if they ditch Windows, and move their products to .NET... then ensure the .NET platform runs on Apple, Linux and a few other platforms (not terribly hard, since the tech is mostly there anyway), I think they might see some improvement.

TBH... I like what Windows was for a short time, in the 2000-XP era, when most of the security holes had been patched, and 7 is OK... but they are majorly ruining the UI. They are trying to be clever, edgy and push the envelope... but doing so in a manner that copies Apple, and tries to go one step further. So they not only lose the 'clever' appearance, for a copycat appearance, but they are copying some of the worst changes for the desktop environment, that Apple is making.

Then again... except for businesses, and a relatively small number of hobbyists, the desktop will be mostly eliminated in the next 5-10 years. So... Windows dieing on the desktop may not be such a big thing for MS. The people who will keep it, are probably the least likely to use Windows (except businesses). The desktop is for creating, most users are simply are fine with consuming, and they'll move to portable platforms which make that easier. Even the portable platforms are starting to be good with producing - particularly multimedia which doesn't require much typing. MS has the possibility to catch-up on the portable side, but it's isn't likely, even though they have a great mobile product, that market is fairly strongly set with other good/great products, and it will be a hard battle, one MS's prodigally inept PR department can only lose.

Re:And... no big loss

[The_Revelation]

To me, Windows XP really refined the Windows experience. I think the way they are forking their UI to Metro or whatever it is, may be taking the usability angle a little too far. I see far too many similarities between the Nintendo Wii OS and Windows 8 to possibly be coincidence, and the Wii has one of the most poorly thought-through UIs of all time. To be honest, I don't think the ribbon system works in Office very well, either - rather than de-cluttering menus it leads to hieroglyphic overload.

Windows has been "over" for me for years

[Maow]

I stopped with Windows around Ubuntu 8.04, was fully weaned on 8.10.

Cannot imagine going back, ever, unless they took FreeBSD and wrapped their stuff around that. Then, maybe.

But MS does deserve a smaller market share than before; I'm happy about that.

They aren't going away completely for a long time.

And going forward, Ubuntu is over. Still on 10.04 and kubuntu 12.04 and CentOS 6.3. Won't use Unity, will avoid Gnome 3 for as long as it takes to become compelling.

Love the choices available.

They could turn things around

[astrashe]

MS's main problem is that they still think like monopolists. That's the core of the Win 8 problem -- people at MS telling us what we'll take, and that we'll like it. That they know better.

I'm a Gnome 2 refugee typing this on a Macbook Air, not a MS apologist. But Windows 7 is a very fine desktop OS. All they have to do is to stop trying to kill it off. Put it back on the PCs in the stores. Admit that Ballmer screwed the pooch, and let him go. He's a leader from the monopoly era, and not well suited to this moment.

Active Directory is a huge asset for MS. There's a whole ecosystem of tools that people use to do work in companies that will be very hard for anyone else to displace. Excel is amazing, and it's central to the conduct of business all over the world. People in offices all over the world live in Outlook. These aren't small advantages.

in the old days, they had their boots on our necks, and we all hated them. I remember that very clearly. But now, as tech professionals, we need them to get it together, for the health of the tech industry as a whole. Too much is sitting on top of them for their implosion to be a good thing.

Screw You Microsoft!

[CuteSteveJobs]

Lots of Windows developers warned you Windows 8 was going to be a big mistake. You ignored us and stumbled on like an angry dunk. I used Windows 8 in the shops. It sucked and was clear customers wouldn't warm to it. With the writing on the wall developers took the plunge to Tablet development. People still wanted their PCs, but instead of re-inventing the desktop and instead you laid another Zune and forgot to flush. You have squandered the biggest computing monopoly ever, but this time people are leaving so I don't think there is a come back. Bye Bye Balmer.

Windows 8 App Developer Says Process Stinks
http://www.informationweek.com/security/application-security/windows-8-app-developer-says-process-sti/240010598
More Game Developers Unhappy With Windows 8
http://linuxgamenews.com/post/29001456897/more-game-developers-unhappy-with-windows-8
Why Microsoft has made developers horrified about coding for Windows 8 # warning signs as far back as 2011!
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2011/06/html5-centric-windows-8-leaves-microsoft-developers-horrified/
Don’t Blame Us for Windows 8s Slow Sales, PC Makers Say
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/11/oem-windows-8/

Re:UI in general is getting worse

[tippe]

worst idea in UI design since the rubber eraser joystick that was on lap tops from people too cheap to buy a track pad.

Hey! Leave me and my clit-mouse out of this discussion, thank you. Long live the clit-mouse!

Re:Whats the alternative? (none for business)

[__aaltlg1547]

Windows may be dead or dying for a HOME operating system. For business, it will keep on going.

Businesses have critical dependencies on specific software and business methods that tie into it. Such businesses, which comprise a HUGE market, are not going to switch from Windows to MacOS or anything else in the foreseeable future. To do so, they would require a full-on replacement for Windows that includes a full Windows API so every program can run just like it does on Windows, with the same access to hardware, system resources and other programs. And they are not going to go there without a GUARANTEE that whatever proposed replacement will run every program with no trouble.

Never mind that Microsoft never gave them perfect forward migration or any guarantee of it. But they were Microsoft, the same company, so there was some degree of trust that they were going to make the new system reasonably compatible with the old API and they did ever since Windows NT. Conservative companies even so waited at least a year after release before they started phasing in new systems. Sometimes well over two years.

And they're not going to go for a small company's product or a free (e.g. Linux) replacement for Windows because there's nobody to sue if they fuck up your systems and stop critical business processes.

Maybe in a decade, Microsoft will be mostly gone from the business world. Probably not.

Re:What numbers?

[GNious]

Around win3.11 and Win95 - people seemed to be quite excited about those.

Re:Whats the alternative? (none for business)

[endus]

Absolutely right.

Windows also incorporates centralized management features that either don't exist or are not as easy to use in other operating systems. It's all standardized, easy to implement, and relatively seamless. These traits allow relatively low-skilled people to support Windows.

I was having some authentication issues and didn't have the permissions to remove and readd my computer to the domain (pretty sure the machine password was out of sync). The tech that came to my computer didn't know how to run a command in DOS, but she did know how to remove my computer from the domain, rename it, and re-add it. Is this a good thing for the computing environment? Definitely not. But it's definitely good for companies' bottom line because they don't have to pay people who really know what they're doing and are highly educated.

Unfortunately the ability for low-skilled people to keep the lights on extends to servers too. No doubt Windows can develop some REALLY complex problems, but by and large getting services up and running isn't that big of a deal.

Software support is definitely critical too. Legacy applications are the bane of my security-focused existence. They cause all sorts of problems, but they keep the work going.

There are just no realistic alternatives at this point. You can point to one OS or another as having some of the desirable traits needed in an enterprise OS, but the point is that none of them have ALL of those desirable traits. Application support goes way way beyond a word processor, spreadsheet, and power point...there are thousands of specialized applications that are critical for businesses to run. Companies like hospitals have made HUGE investments in software to manage EMRs and issues with the user interface of one version of windows are not going to cause them to abandon that investment overnight.

Re:have you tried it?

[alexgieg]

All Microsoft needed to do with the UI is *nothing*.

Justice be told, there's one good thing about the Metro UI in that behind all the flashiness it's a move towards the geekiest of GUI paradigms: a tiling window manager. Hard core command-line programmers usually love those, but in this case they're all hating it, and deservedly so. I think the actual problem with Metro then isn't that it's a TWM, but just that it's a bad TWM. In a few iterations it might become good but so far it's Microsoft's equivalent to Windows 1.0 (which also was a TWM) in terms of refinement and ease of use, i.e., altogether lacking in both.