$200 Intel Android Laptops Are Coming

symbolset writes "Outbound Intel CEO Paul Otellini created quite a stir when mentioning that touchscreen laptops would reach a $200 price point. CNET is now reporting in an interview with Intel chief product officer Dadi Perlmutter that these touchscreen laptops will run Android on Intel Atom processors at first. 'Whether Windows 8 PCs hit that price largely depends on Microsoft, he said. "We have a good technology that enables a very cost-effective price point," Perlmutter said. The price of Windows 8 laptops "depends on how Microsoft prices Windows 8. It may be a slightly higher price point." ... Perlmutter didn't specify what the Android notebooks will look like, but it's probable they'll be convertible-type devices. He also noted that he expects the PC market to pick up in the back half of the year and heading into 2014 as new devices become available."

Comments

bets?

[waddgodd]

Anyone want to bet that Microsoft will price themselves right out of the $200 atom market? I'm betting that $200 will be right about the price point for just the OS, so unless Intel wants to give away their atom touchscreen lappies, they'll remain android, or possibly get a linux option.

Re:bets?

[tlhIngan]

PC manufacturers won't bother - the $200 price point was not appealing the first time around. There was absolutely no money to be made then, just like now. Unless Intel is shovelling parts at the OEMs for free, there's no way.

Hell, before the iPad came out, you want to know what happened to the $300 netbooks? They became $400 and $500 netbooks! The $300 ones were basically clearances or older models that haven't moved because they were tiny 7" screens or other compromises that people didn't like.

Even Chromebooks are compromised to get them to that price point, mostly by going ARM.

At this point, the question of $200 will depend on what crap they can cut in order to meet the price - most likely you'll see the return of crappy screens (ye olde 800x480), tiny RAM (2GB or so if you're lucky), and miniscule hard drives (8GB SSDs). All of which would make a Windows 8 experience pretty terrible.

A $200 retail laptop would have to have $150 tops in parts (the $50 is eaten as retailer profit, manufacturer profit, shipping and warehousing, etc). A cheap spinning rust hard drive is probably $50 for 500GB, way too expensive. 8GB of SSD storage from a thumbdrive, say, is cheap - $5. Then there's RAM, CPU, battery, and all the other pieces which quickly eat up that BOM cost.

Re:bets?

[ozmanjusri]

Office doesn't run on Android.

That means both of Microsoft's cash cows will have been bypassed. They'll HAVE to respond in some way.

Re:bets?

[JonBoy47]

Interestingly, Google is currently selling an Acer Chromebook, using a dual-core Celeron chip and 320GB hard drive for $199 retail. It would appear the hardware would be Windows-capable if you wanted to bother. The first round of $200 netbooks flopped because they didn't change the paradigm. As Steve Jobs said in the iPad launch keynote "They're just cheap laptops". It didn't help that mainstream consumers had never heard of, and were wary of Linux. OEM's fixed this problem by adding Windows, which also required more memory, rust-based storage, a bigger battery to power it all and a larger casing to fit it all in. By the time this Windows tax was baked into the price of these second generation netbooks, the price was within spitting distance of a "real" notebook. Mainstream customers just ponied up the extra $50 to get a real laptop with a much bigger screen, decent keyboard and a DVD burner.

Re:bets?

[TheSeatOfMyPants]

...crappy screens (ye olde 800x480), tiny RAM (2GB or so if you're lucky), and miniscule hard drives (8GB SSDs)...hard drive is probably $50 for 500GB...

With a polished+supported OS and an 80GB drive, at $200 it'd work for a lot of people, either as a primary system if they're poor or a secondary/work-only one if they're not. I'm speaking firsthand from my single-core 2GHz Thinkpad T43 after finally upgrading it to 2GB of RAM today; it has a 60GB hard drive, 1024x768 14" screen, runs SimplyMepis 11 Linux (currently using 4.8G + 1G swap), and does everything I'd like it to do.

My laptop's specs give a good idea of what a manufacturer could get away with in creating a polished Linux-based laptop. The OS and most Linux programs don't take up much room, so even an 8-12G SSD (or 30GB HD to be generous) would be fine and a SD/microSD card reader would then allow the user to take on the cost of additional storage based on his/her needs. If the timing's just right, the company could take advantage of others pushing towards super-high resolutions by buying the WXGA or XGA screens at a huge discount.

I don't know the OS costs, so it's hard to comment much on them -- but there are at least a few computer repair/building services out there that sell PCs they've set up with very newbie-friendly Linux distros and have had a lot of very satisfied/repeat customers, which suggests it's possible to pull it off; seeking out those successful geeks and finding out their "secrets" might be the wisest approach. The most important thing there, I believe, would be to ensure the customers know that the computer wouldn't run Windows, so there's no confusion/shock when they go to use it (as with the netbooks a few years ago); hell, with word out now that Windows 8 is a giant clusterfuck, it shouldn't be hard to market the fact that the OS isn't Windows as a desirable thing.

Re:bets?

[pecosdave]

It's not the "not running Android" that's the problem, it's the locking it down that's a problem.

One could argue part of the reason Microsoft is floundering is they chose to be such ass-hats about signed/unsigned code and locking down boot loaders to begin with. At least if they had left it unlocked they would have gotten their "tax" even if they buyer chose to run Linux/Android, like my netbook.

Don't forget Ubuntu for phones is coming and there's some Firefox/Mozilla OS in the works too. Perhaps someone might want to experiment with those?

Re:bets?

[beelsebob]

One could argue part of the reason Microsoft is floundering is they chose to be such ass-hats about signed/unsigned code and locking down boot loaders to begin with.

One could argue that, but one would be talking out of one's ass in doing so.

Re:bets?

[evilviper]

why would you not run Android?

Android is still more thin client than computer, with lots of blinking lights for the kids... It's pretty great on a phone, where you want to look up simple information and play back your musis, but it's not a real desktop OS.

With Linux installed, I can do all the video and audio encoding I could want, not to mention being able to play back ANY video and audio formats. I can install GIMP and Blender and do high-end 2D and 3D graphics manipulation right on the device, not remote'd into a real computer, and not limited to MSPaint-type image manipulation options, but real work, right on the device.

And Linux is also a better thin client... Android RDP options are famously limited to a single host unless you pay up, and sadly, NX Client still isn't available for Android, so no GUI access to Linux systems.

Re:bets?

[Bert64]

Those $200 netbooks were very popular, they are basically what started the whole netbook fad...
The reason they went up in price was because they went up in spec, primarily in order to run windows. Once they were powerful enough to run windows, they were no longer cheap and became considerably heavier too, which took away the original benefits of a netbook.

Re:bets?

[maxwell demon]

Because you want your computer to be independent from the cloud?
Because you want to do things which are not available on Android?
Because you just want a desktop interface on your laptop, instead of a phone interface?
Because at some point, someone might unveil a competing OS which is vastly better than what exists now, and you might want to switch your laptop to that?

Re:bets?

[rtb61]

Well obviously this Intel Android Laptop is not targeted at you. Everyone knows exactly who it will be targeted at, Android phone users who want to do a little bit more and need the keyboard and screen interface and of course tossed in with an Android phone contract, a pretty good and could be a well targeted sweetener, with an interface they are already accustomed to. What will be interesting is how much data storage expansion the device allows for and how readily an Android phone can be hooked up to it to transfer data and charge the phone.

Re:bets?

[SuricouRaven]

Except that selling tablets isn't about just selling hardware. It's about selling an ecosystem. Google doesn't make their Android money by selling licenses to the OS: They make it off the Play store, and off of the other services (Advertising, maps, search) that Android strongly encourages users to use.

Microsoft wants to copy the success of Apple and Google in mobile, but that business model depends upon maintaining control of the device post-sale. If people buy a Windows tablet but don't actually run Windows RT/8 on it, then Microsoft loses all the post-sale revenue - the main source of income from the devices.

It's much the same situation as with games consoles: The consoles themselves are sold often at a loss, and the money made back by charging publishers a per-game fee to release games for the console. This can only work if there is some way to lock down the consoles not to run unsigned code, otherwise the publishers would simply release their games and not pay the console manufacturers a cut.

Re:bets?

[rtfa-troll]

One could argue that, but one would be talking out of one's ass in doing so.

I don't think the code signing is directly screwing Microsoft, but it's part of an element of 'customer hatred' that really shows the way they are going. We all know how development works. You choose to do one feature or another. Code signing the way Microsoft chose it, has almost no customer benefits and plenty of long term customer negatives in terms of reducing competition and your own freedom to fix your system when needed (even fixing the bottom layer of Windows is blocked). Almost certainly one of the key features which makes Android better was dropped to do this. For example maybe Gesture Typing - a bit like the Swype Nokia used to have on the N9 before it was cancelled.

Compare that to Google's "Data Liberation Front" features designed to let you export your data when you want to. This has very little direct benefit for Google, but the customer benefit is massive and comes at the point when you least expect it. Short term this looks stupid, but long term it means that users come to "trust" Google which is to Google's long term advantage as well.

Microsoft has a long history of choosing features like Active-X and directly executable email content which allow them to deliver proprietary control of your machine to themselves at the cost of problems (in those case security problems) for customers later. Customers may not know that they are being screwed now, but they remember that they were screwed before and are beginning to expect that. The Microsoft ban on GPL software in Windows Market place is an example. They don't like the software so they make the choice for you. The choice to have a fixed user interface around hubs, not allowing Apps to change things is another example - at the beginning it makes things more consistent; it makes it easier for them to sell you more similar devices; but later on it means you can never achieve the full power of a customized mobile device and is part of a whole attitude problem leading to continual app disappointment.

Simply put, code signing is a symptom of Microsoft's hatred of their own customers (just one of the first links to pop up searching for Mirosoft customer hatred. They look at their "ecosystem partners" as a bunch of suckers ready to be screwed when the chance comes up. That used to work in the old days when every tech company had to come round Redmond to get permission before doing a big new launch. Now it's just getting users and partners annoyed.

Re:bets?

[MightyYar]

Clouds let me access all my stuff from everywhere that has an internet connection, which is increasingly everywhere. Local cache solves the intermittent connectivity issue. Clouds let me backup off-site for about $100/year, which is comparable in cost to running my basement server.

Dumb graphic terminals let me see a common desktop from everywhere. No more installing apps on lab computers - just remote in to my desktop. No more bringing a separate work laptop home, just hop on the VPN and remote desktop. It saves me a ton of time and effort. I don't even need to install MS Office or Matlab at home anymore.

iPods and their descendants are great for media consumption. You don't need a laptop to watch Youtube or to share pet photos on Facebook. They are so cheap that every member of the family can have one. The need for multiple PCs - and even multiple TVs - has eroded in a way I would not have anticipated. They've even replaced camcorders - I was one of perhaps only a dozen parents at the last dance recital still sporting a camcorder... almost everyone else was recording the performance with their phone or even a full sized iPad. (It was actually pretty comical looking.)

Re:bets?

[pecosdave]

Every time I think of Microsoft hating their customers I think back to one of their old ad campaigns where they actively and blatantly made fun of their customers.

android over windows

[girlinatrainingbra]

Hmmm... android winning... windows dying... Is it finally the year of linux on the laptop? (even if it's an intel androidy laptop)
.
I thought that the sub-$300 laptops were declared dead last year and at the beginning of this year. Are people finally realizing that holding a tablet upright isn't all that it's cracked up to be?
:>)
And also that {unbundling a touchscreen laptop and selling its parts individually as a touchscreen tablet + case cover + attachable keyboard + carryalong recharger which ends up costing twice the cost of the comparable bundled together laptop in the firstplace} is untenable in a market-place where people are still interested in saving money.

Intel has to do this...

[JonBoy47]

Despite their efforts, Intel hasn't significantly extended past their position as the CPU supplier for Windows PC's. Which, in a world where potential customers are increasingly buying low cost, non-Windows ARM-based devices, is a problem. Intel must extend into this market or face a long slow slide to irrelevancy as the world migrates to mobile and ARM processors. It doesn't help that Windows system requirements haven't increased since Vista came out in 2007. Users have no reason to upgrade working PC's, or buy more than the bare minimum when circumstance forces a purchase.

Intel can fire sale Atom chips, but they can't achieve price parity with competing non-Windows ARM-based devices without ditching the Windows tax.

Re:"game changer"

[DogDude]

M$ dying quickly.

Yeah, and kid$ like you have been $aying this $ince '98, too. *Yawn*

I still don't want touch screen

[SgtChaireBourne]

I don't want a touch screen. How about saving the touch screen and making a $150 laptop? The touch screen is just unwanted extra cost. I have a hard enough time keeping the screen clean without people intentionally smearing their grubby fingers across it. It's definitely not anything I want to pay extra for.

Netbooks are quite useful. I'd also like to see more ARM units with long battery life. The netbook form has more room for battery than a tablet does so there really aren't any excuses any more for not having 10 - 12 hours of battery. That's enough to get through a full day at a conference or long flight with transfers.

Re:In other words...

[flyingfsck]

Uhmm, General Motors, Wal-Mart and pretty much all financial institutions already use Red Hat. Windows is a niche product running on about 1 billion devices. The other 100 billion devices run Linux.

Not in DNA

[tuppe666]

As Steve Jobs said in the iPad launch keynote "They're just cheap laptops"

Except the quote was this ""They're slow, they have low quality displays and they run clunky old PC software. They're not better than a laptop at anything, they're just cheaper: they're just cheap laptops."

The new generation of $200 laptops are fast, high quality displays...and run Android.

In context of price mentioned in this quote, Android has already surpassed Apple in the tablet market by producing better value tablets. Perhaps price is something Jobs should not have dismissed so easily.

Ironically younger Jobs agrees with me "What ruined Apple was not growth They got very greedy Instead of following the original trajectory of the original vision, which was to make the thing an appliance and get this out there to as many people as possible they went for profits. They made outlandish profits for about four years. What this cost them was their future. What they should have been doing is making rational profits and going for market share.”"

Heavy edit

[symbolset]

I was the submitter and barely half those words were mine.