Ask Slashdot: What Is the Future of Old Copper Pair Technology?

p00kiethebear writes "My father works for a large corporation that licenses ISDN lines (among a plethora of other services) including T1 and T3 technology. Surprisingly there are still large companies that use fifty year old T1 technology to handle their voice and data use. My father's 30 year career has been almost exclusively in helpdesk / troubleshooting T1 / ISDN technology and both he and I are worried about the future. Cable modems and DSL have replaced ISDN in most cases and it's now an archaic solution reserved for voice actors, tech support-terminal workers, large companies that need voice and video conferencing, and data and private users too far from the loop for DSL or Cable. My dad is still 15 years from retirement. Is twisted copper going the way of the dodo or is it here to stay for the foreseeable future?"

Comments

Copper?

[mrmeval]

All of that wiring will be reclaimed. It's not worth as much as wiring as it is in thousands of other items. Even the copper coated steel wiring is worth more as other things. You have fiber and wireless and I don't see anything else soon.

Re:Copper?

[gandhi_2]

For low-latency and lossless point-to-point across town, we couldn't find ANY ISP's connection technology that could beat the T1.

Expensive, but rock solid and quick (vs fast).

Re:Copper?

[RulerOf]

Expensive, but rock solid and quick (vs fast).

Every time I see a statement like this, it reminds me we could really use some better single-word descriptors to disambiguate a connection that is

• High vs. Low bandwidth
• High vs. Low Latency
• All possible combinations of the two

Not that we don't understand what you meant of course! I just have a feeling that "fast" or "quick" will be rather ambiguous ways to describe a network connection for a rather long time :P

Re:Copper?

[Cato]

There's already terminology for this, though not 'single word'

- long = high latency
- fat = high throughput

So a satellite connection would be a 'long thin pipe' usually, while a VDSL2 or fibre connection would be 'short fat'.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwidth-delay_product for background - as you probably know, the product of bandwidth (throughput) and delay is also the amount of data buffered in the connection.

DSL over copper

[raburton]

The question seems to use copper wire and ISDN interchangeably. In the UK the DSL you mention runs over those copper wires, so they aren't going anywhere.

Re:DSL over copper

[Mashiki]

Same holds true in Canada. Though they have been rolling out FTTN for the last few years, but in the end last mile is still copper.

Re:DSL over copper

[50000BTU_barbecue]

Fiber to the nerd?

The helpdesk is not going the way of the dodo

[PolygamousRanchKid]

No matter how easy to use some new technology is, someone will still need help with it.

As to your father, he I'm guessing he will be able to learn enough to help others with it.

No matter how little you think you know about something, there are still plenty of other who know even less.

Worried about employability?

[EvilJoker]

If you're worried about your skills becoming obsolete, then GET NEW SKILLS! This isn't that hard. Anyone in a technology field should not expect to use the same skill set for 30 (!) years, let alone 45.

Granted, this far along in the process may experience a bit of a renaissance (much like COBOL programmers), but if job security is a concern, it's time for some new education/training.

Copper's got some HUGE advantages over fiber

[The Cisco Kid]

1. Its already there, pretty much everywhere.
2. Only one end needs to have power for it to work. (This is the "911 works even when the power is out" issue)
3. You don't need multi-thousand dollar tools to splice it or terminate it.
4. You don't need multi-hundred dollar equipment to connect to it.

Re:Copper's got some HUGE advantages over fiber

[Guspaz]

1. is not true in some places. Bell Aliant's territory (most of eastern Canada) is now primarily fiber, with very little copper left. They decided to replace their entire network, and then went and did it.
2. is partially true, but battery backups (frequently included in the install) keep things running for hours, making this much less of a problem than people think. Also, during extended power outages, the battery backups at your telco's CO only lasts so long, and they only have so many generators to recharge them with, so this problem affects copper too.
3. is misleading because fiber is cheaper to deploy on the whole, the cost of individual pieces of equipment is irrelevant when the overall process is cheaper.
4. is untrue, you can find GPON ONTs for $65 or less.

Re:Copper's got some HUGE advantages over fiber

[Guspaz]

The thing is the telephone companies have a strong incentive to step up to fiber. VDSL2 is not keeping up with cable developments (bonded DOCSIS 3 is already pushing multi-hundred megabit speeds to customers here, which VDSL2 can't match), and while you might top out VDSL2 at 100-200 megabits per second with vectoring and bonding, cable is on the cusp of moving to DOCSIS 3.1 which competes with GPON in shared throughput (10 gigabit).

VDSL2 is seen by Bell Canada (who own Bell Aliant doing the fiber deployments in eastern Canada) as a stepping stone. It keeps them competitive long enough to roll out more fiber. It definitely won't be 20 years before they've replaced most or all of their copper...

There's another scenario other than "buried" or "strung", which is "in a conduit". In fact, for people served by VDSL2, that is often already done. My VDSL2 is served, as are many other people in Montreal, by a DSLAM in my basement. Dedicated fiber enters my apartment building, and all the units are served VDSL2 over the copper phone lines in the building. At that point, you've done the hardest part of getting the fiber to the building already, and all you need to do is run the fiber through the building. That's not very hard. Bell Aliant has a neat PDF where they discuss all the different ways they wire up a building with fiber, based on the building itself and the requirements of the owners. It can be anything from pulling the copper wiring from the building's internal conduits and using compressed air to blow fiber up them, or they can drill a hole between each floor and run it along the hallway outside each apartment near the ceiling where it's invisible, or even leverage a building's existing ethernet infrastructure if one exists (infrequent as that case might be).

In terms of battery backup, well, personally I'd have battery capacity to go beyond a few hours, but the vast majority of people won't. For them, there may be other options (cellular, for example), but the reality is that the copper infrastructure will eventually be completely replaced, so these problems are going to occur sooner or later. Rather than citing it as a reason copper should stick around, since that won't happen, finding a solution to the problem is more productive. I can think of a few mechanisms that might extend the lifespan of the batteries. Obviously, if you're using lead acid, you're going to want a lithium ion battery in there, but beyond that, a low power mode specifically designed to keep nothing but telephony working during a power outage could greatly extend the battery life. Perhaps, in such a mode, you could shut down the optical transceiver entirely until somebody actually picks up the phone, for example. Battery usage apart from when somebody is actually using a telephone would be minimal, to the extent that a relatively modest battery could easily provide days (or more) of telephone connectivity.

My understanding is that current battery backups for ONTs just provide power to keep the thing going as usual doing a power failure, but specific support for power saving could extend this greatly...

Cable != ISDN / T1 / T3

[gravis777]

ISDN, T1 and T3 lines are dedicated, whereas cable is shared. ISDN, T1 and T3 lines are also synchronous connections. Even in business-class cable and DSL connections, I rarely see synchronous speeds (doesn't mean they don't exist, just means that they seem to be rare). In the larger cities, I see major companies going to Fiber connections, but in smaller cities and towns, T1 and T3s are still the way to go.

Our company still has ISDN lines as backups when the fiber fails.

At least in the States, where you have a lot of smaller towns and rural areas with sometiimes hundreds of miles between them and the largest hub, I see copper pair staying around for a while yet.

PRI?

[Vrtigo1]

You seem to be focused on BRI ISDN which is what is used by those you referenced (TV remotes, voice actors, etc). It is an extremely low bandwidth connection (128 Kbps) but "it works" and is probably not going away anytime soon. PRI is probably much more prevalent. PRI is what I would consider the T1 of ISDN. It is commonly used for enterprise PBX systems, and I definitely don't see it going away anytime soon. The only other realistic option I see at present is SIP, but even then unless it's delivered over fiber SIP services are still probably going to come in over some kind of copper medium (be it T1, etc). Some companies are moving to fiber, but there is usually considerably more cost associated with bringing fiber to the premises as compared to copper which likely is already on premise.

My company has fiber on premise for IP, but we still have PRIs from the LEC for our voice service. Any time you bring voice in over an IP transport (as in SIP), you have to make sure the IP network has proper QoS, etc whereas PRI "just works". PRI is usually more expensive, but not overly so. When we replaced our PBX a few years ago we considered SIP, but when we presented the various options to the powers that be, they chose to stick with PRI because it has a proven track record whereas SIP was just gaining traction in the market.

I think in 15 years you will definitely see fiber steal a large market share of those customers that are currently using copper, but I think there will still be plenty of copper around.

The question is about relevance of PDH/ISDN

[Zarhan]

Like someone else commented, the poster uses terms "Copper" and "ISDN" interchangeably. However, with the inclusion of terms like T1/T3, it's clearly about "what can an old telco-guy do in this newfangled IP-based world with 15 years before retirement". Copper here is a misnomer, a lot of stuff can happen over copper (DSLs being the most obvious example).

I have some familiarity in just how dead the technology is. We have a big customer who just placed a big order for Cisco's PVDM digital modems. Why "big", if the tech is dying? Well, that stuff is going to end-of-sale after this summer and they have lot of legacy systems around the globe that dial in (machine-to-machine stuff, and not easily upgradeable everywhere at once). They are moving to IP-based systems but cannot really do that fast enough. Anyway, one of the biggest vendors of network equipment just decided that they aren't going to sell modems that can talk directly to E1/T1 line (analog 2-port models are still in the selection though). I don't know that anyone else is selling such stuff either (Alcatel maybe?). That technology had it's day, but it's long gone.

There might of course be places where, due to signaling constraints, you need to run a E1/T1, but it doesn't really use any of the features. You just run PPP over that link and be done with it - no one cares about the intricasies of Q.931 framing or setting up calls for such links. Even in telephony, it will continue to have some uses, for example many PBX systems still only provide E1/T1 uplink - even if it's going to be used just to connect couple of feet to the SIP gateway right at the next rack.

Frankly, your father has two choices: Either
  a) Get entrenched into some niche that really can keep on going with ISDN-based technologies for the next 15 years - you know, maintain job security by being the "only one left who understands this piece of legacy junk that we cannot migrate away from fast". Frankly, I find such positions hard to imagine - sure, maybe if he was retiring in this decade, it could work, but hardly in the 2020's.
  or
  b) Join the IP world. Frankly, I would think that with a reasonable effort he could still become an expert in VoIP - you still need skills like provisioning (for QoS), codecs (even the G.711a/mu-law is relevant), and so on. Lot of the concepts in SIP are still based on the good old stuff from telco days. You just need to wrap your head around the concept that instead of TDM sending each frame at exactly right intervals, you get packets that might occasionally get lost or routed wrongly or arrive out-of-order...And frankly, you also don't need to care anymore about stuff like SPID's or TEIs. Which I would think of a relief.

Rural America has nothing to fear...

[bloggerhater]

I'm an engineer with one of the largest communications companies in the U.S.. It will be a long time before we see reliable high speed saturation in the more rural regions... mostly because of the prohibitive cost of deployment. OP's dad may need to move or telecommute at some point...but his skill set will be needed for some time to come.

Re:Circuit switching is (almost) dead

[Animats]

It seems pretty clear to me that circuit switched networks will be phased out in the next 10 years.

They're coming back. They're just called "software defined networks" now. Look at what OpenFlow really does.

T1s still work for us

[zerofoo]

We use FIOS for our internet connectivity, but we still rely on MPLS over T1s to interconnect our offices and handle our VOIP traffic. VPN over the public internet simply had too much latency to be useful. It's archaic, but it works.

Re:The final Link

[NEDHead]

The dinosaurs adapted - they grew wings and trained humans to build them houses and bags of high quality food.

An end to the sexual tension?

[macraig]

I say let those two long-suffering wires finally get it on with each other... enough with the twists and stress and tension already!

Re:Yes.

[plover]

Which is utterly incapable of replacing copper pair for the simple reason known as "physics".

Really? There are millions of people running their successful small businesses on various combinations of GSM, CDMA, 3G, 4G, 802.11, and WiMax.

Most small firms don't have huge bandwidth or speed needs. They need a payment terminal to process credit cards, an email client to handle customer service, a web browser to look up parts and order materials online, someone to advertise on Google and Facebook and Twitter, and maybe an online QuickBooks account. But most of these people spend the bulk of their days on the sales floor or in the workshop. They don't need a land line, or a server rack, or even a T1. These small businesses used to use dial-up, but everything they need now is available via cellular towers and iPhones.

They don't need the constant reliability that a remote technology worker might need. If the network is down, there's always another order to be filled, a floor to be swept, or shelves to be straightened.

Their buildings still have Cat-3 wiring and old POTS phones gathering dust in the backrooms. But there's no dialtone on them anymore, and there won't be.

Diminishing use, means fewer employees

[evilviper]

Copper will definitely be around for another 15 years, easily. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean you're guaranteed a job if that's all you know. When any technology becomes less popular quickly, there's a glut of personnel, and massive layoffs can be expected.

Copper is sure to remain in-use. While Verizon is (very slowly) going fully fiber to the home with FIOS, AT&T is sticking with U-Verse, which is fiber to the block, with copper still making-up the last mile. And that installed base of T-1s and T-3s isn't about to just go away. But like I said, telcos will need fewer and fewer people around to support the dwindling customer base, so layoffs are likely.

And besides twisted pair, there's no sign of coax disappearing any time soon.

As others have said, you should have be brushing up on your fiber optic skills. In fact you should have been learning about fiber 15 years ago like I did. That was back when every ISP on the planet was pulling huge amounts of fiber across the planet, and the future of data was obviously going to be fiber. Now, wireless (802.11 & LTE) are undercutting the bright future I expected for fiber, but only slightly, as fiber is usually the backhaul for those technologies as well.