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Ask Slashdot: What Is the Future of Old Copper Pair Technology?
p00kiethebear writes "My father works for a large corporation that licenses ISDN lines (among a plethora of other services) including T1 and T3 technology. Surprisingly there are still large companies that use fifty year old T1 technology to handle their voice and data use. My father's 30 year career has been almost exclusively in helpdesk / troubleshooting T1 / ISDN technology and both he and I are worried about the future. Cable modems and DSL have replaced ISDN in most cases and it's now an archaic solution reserved for voice actors, tech support-terminal workers, large companies that need voice and video conferencing, and data and private users too far from the loop for DSL or Cable. My dad is still 15 years from retirement. Is twisted copper going the way of the dodo or is it here to stay for the foreseeable future?"
All of that wiring will be reclaimed. It's not worth as much as wiring as it is in thousands of other items. Even the copper coated steel wiring is worth more as other things. You have fiber and wireless and I don't see anything else soon.
I'd go on a Vegan diet but the delivery time from Vega is too long. --brownkitty
The question seems to use copper wire and ISDN interchangeably. In the UK the DSL you mention runs over those copper wires, so they aren't going anywhere.
No matter how easy to use some new technology is, someone will still need help with it.
As to your father, he I'm guessing he will be able to learn enough to help others with it.
No matter how little you think you know about something, there are still plenty of other who know even less.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
In germany some people ha e 20MBit DSL connections via old copper phone cables. The problem not having that throuhgput are usually interconnections, and not the twisted pairs.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
If you're worried about your skills becoming obsolete, then GET NEW SKILLS! This isn't that hard. Anyone in a technology field should not expect to use the same skill set for 30 (!) years, let alone 45.
Granted, this far along in the process may experience a bit of a renaissance (much like COBOL programmers), but if job security is a concern, it's time for some new education/training.
ATT is forcing DSL users to switch to Uverse fiber-to-the-box with short copper to the home.
I got a tour of a central office a while ago. Entire floors were empty as the old copper infrastructure was removed
They called it "mining" the old copper
The technicians say that no money is being spent to upgrade the copper infrastructure that remains. It will continue to decay until it fails
Yes, copper will survive into the future, but there will be less of it, and the quality will be worse
1. Its already there, pretty much everywhere.
2. Only one end needs to have power for it to work. (This is the "911 works even when the power is out" issue)
3. You don't need multi-thousand dollar tools to splice it or terminate it.
4. You don't need multi-hundred dollar equipment to connect to it.
ISDN, T1 and T3 lines are dedicated, whereas cable is shared. ISDN, T1 and T3 lines are also synchronous connections. Even in business-class cable and DSL connections, I rarely see synchronous speeds (doesn't mean they don't exist, just means that they seem to be rare). In the larger cities, I see major companies going to Fiber connections, but in smaller cities and towns, T1 and T3s are still the way to go.
Our company still has ISDN lines as backups when the fiber fails.
At least in the States, where you have a lot of smaller towns and rural areas with sometiimes hundreds of miles between them and the largest hub, I see copper pair staying around for a while yet.
It seems pretty clear to me that circuit switched networks will be phased out in the next 10 years. AT&T has petitioned the FCC to transition to an all-IP network by 2018. At that point, you might have virtual circuit-switched connections, but with none of the advantages of real circuit-switched networks or the cost savings of IP. Existing copper lines were never intended to carry much bandwidth, so while they're still used for last-mile access in many cases (e.g. DSL), going forward it seems like coax or fiber are going to be the only competitive technologies. I believe some telcos are already replacing twisted pair bundles damaged by Hurricane Sandy with fiber.
Don't you mean 330 ft runs?
10GBASE-T, or IEEE 802.3an-2006, is a standard released in 2006 to provide 10 Gbit/s connections over unshielded or shielded twisted pair cables, over distances up to 100 metres (330 ft).[25] Category 6a is required to reach the full distance of 100 metres (330 ft) and category 6 will reach a distance of 55 metres (180 ft).
ok ok so for legacy installations you might only reach 180ft.
As for helpdesk support... support isn't going anywhere. Although I feel like it's a fruitless pursuit to spend your entire career in. If you're 15 years away from retirement, I would seriously be looking for opportunities for education and advancement, to a more managerial position, where you could have more impact, and maybe get a higher inome for a better retirement.
As you mentioned.... people too far for DSL.
Aside from clear channel DS3; which I don't think is even an argument, that those are going anywhere -- businesses still buy those. And the capacity and assurance that the bandwidth will be available is much higher than DSL.
As you didn't mention... businesses that need something more reliable than DSL, and a SLA from their telecommunications provider. DSL is typically best-effort by the ILEC; sometimes taking 48 to 72 hours to repair. ISDN services are less fragile, and typically have a tigher SLA for diagnosis and repair -- and hey the insult required to break ISDN are essentially drastic situations like stray voltage on the line, cut or short-circuit.
DSL reception can be totally broken, or the speed suddenly greatly diminished, by a huge variety of minor insults to the copper, where electrical continuity isn't lost.
The performance you will get from a T1 link by contrast, is pretty much a certain thing, barring severe damage to the copper.
Businesses requiring POTS applications; believe it or not, VoIP doesn't work for just anything, and still might not be preferred even if it's cheaper; the reliability and security characteristics of POTS may be preferred.
For example: IT security departments like POTS, because VoIP is so vulnerable, and easy to record, intercept, and forge calls, in case of network intrusion.
Various applications work better with POTS, such as fax machines and alarm systems. In large sites, there is likely to be some need, and maybe enough need that a PRI or channelized T1 is required for 24 phone lines.
Existing services where T1/T3 is already in place are unlikely to be changed; where they are filling the need. Not every business wants to tempt fate by switching kinds of service if there is no need to it --- for the forseeable future, there is no massive exodus for DSL.
DS3 signalling isn't going anywhere either; it's the way of muxing a bunch of T1s or SLA guaranteed customer circuits for circuit protection and mapping across the transport network infrastructure. A bunch of DS0s become DS1s; a bunch of DS1s become DS3s; a bunch of DS3s become OC-xxx; a bunch of those so-called obsolete T1s form the backbone of a telco transport network.
You seem to be focused on BRI ISDN which is what is used by those you referenced (TV remotes, voice actors, etc). It is an extremely low bandwidth connection (128 Kbps) but "it works" and is probably not going away anytime soon. PRI is probably much more prevalent. PRI is what I would consider the T1 of ISDN. It is commonly used for enterprise PBX systems, and I definitely don't see it going away anytime soon. The only other realistic option I see at present is SIP, but even then unless it's delivered over fiber SIP services are still probably going to come in over some kind of copper medium (be it T1, etc). Some companies are moving to fiber, but there is usually considerably more cost associated with bringing fiber to the premises as compared to copper which likely is already on premise.
My company has fiber on premise for IP, but we still have PRIs from the LEC for our voice service. Any time you bring voice in over an IP transport (as in SIP), you have to make sure the IP network has proper QoS, etc whereas PRI "just works". PRI is usually more expensive, but not overly so. When we replaced our PBX a few years ago we considered SIP, but when we presented the various options to the powers that be, they chose to stick with PRI because it has a proven track record whereas SIP was just gaining traction in the market.
I think in 15 years you will definitely see fiber steal a large market share of those customers that are currently using copper, but I think there will still be plenty of copper around.
Like someone else commented, the poster uses terms "Copper" and "ISDN" interchangeably. However, with the inclusion of terms like T1/T3, it's clearly about "what can an old telco-guy do in this newfangled IP-based world with 15 years before retirement". Copper here is a misnomer, a lot of stuff can happen over copper (DSLs being the most obvious example).
I have some familiarity in just how dead the technology is. We have a big customer who just placed a big order for Cisco's PVDM digital modems. Why "big", if the tech is dying? Well, that stuff is going to end-of-sale after this summer and they have lot of legacy systems around the globe that dial in (machine-to-machine stuff, and not easily upgradeable everywhere at once). They are moving to IP-based systems but cannot really do that fast enough. Anyway, one of the biggest vendors of network equipment just decided that they aren't going to sell modems that can talk directly to E1/T1 line (analog 2-port models are still in the selection though). I don't know that anyone else is selling such stuff either (Alcatel maybe?). That technology had it's day, but it's long gone.
There might of course be places where, due to signaling constraints, you need to run a E1/T1, but it doesn't really use any of the features. You just run PPP over that link and be done with it - no one cares about the intricasies of Q.931 framing or setting up calls for such links. Even in telephony, it will continue to have some uses, for example many PBX systems still only provide E1/T1 uplink - even if it's going to be used just to connect couple of feet to the SIP gateway right at the next rack.
Frankly, your father has two choices: Either
a) Get entrenched into some niche that really can keep on going with ISDN-based technologies for the next 15 years - you know, maintain job security by being the "only one left who understands this piece of legacy junk that we cannot migrate away from fast". Frankly, I find such positions hard to imagine - sure, maybe if he was retiring in this decade, it could work, but hardly in the 2020's.
or
b) Join the IP world. Frankly, I would think that with a reasonable effort he could still become an expert in VoIP - you still need skills like provisioning (for QoS), codecs (even the G.711a/mu-law is relevant), and so on. Lot of the concepts in SIP are still based on the good old stuff from telco days. You just need to wrap your head around the concept that instead of TDM sending each frame at exactly right intervals, you get packets that might occasionally get lost or routed wrongly or arrive out-of-order...And frankly, you also don't need to care anymore about stuff like SPID's or TEIs. Which I would think of a relief.
My employers' primary business has, until recently, been based on T1. We are now migrating to VoIP.
The customer experience is improved (if they notice the change at all), we're opening up new paths for future development, and we're getting away from obsolete legacy hardware that is no longer manufactured or supported. We're also saving the company oodles of money. What the telcos want for T1 these days just isn't pretty.
I'm 51, BTW. Old dogs can indeed learn new tricks.
...laura
I'm an engineer with one of the largest communications companies in the U.S.. It will be a long time before we see reliable high speed saturation in the more rural regions... mostly because of the prohibitive cost of deployment. OP's dad may need to move or telecommute at some point...but his skill set will be needed for some time to come.
Do people still use DSL? In my area the choices are cable or fiber to the house. It seems like, if you were going to worry about DSL taking over for ISDN, you'd be doing that in the late nineties.
I suppose some big corporations still use ISDN for the same reason some companies still use 3179 terminals. A large initial investment in what has become stale technology, and it's just easier to continue to piece together what they have than to swap it out for a modern technology. That said, it seems like there should be a significant price advantage to switching to something from, you know, this century.
I'd recommend your dad train up on modern technology. Learning keeps you young, and let's face it, 15 years is a long time in computer tech. That's enough time to have a whole 'nother career. Sorry he won't have an opportunity to coast the rest of the way to retirement, but thems the breaks. (Speaking as someone who will be 56 in just a few days.)
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
The point is its still twisted copper, twisted copper isnt going the way of the dodo
We use FIOS for our internet connectivity, but we still rely on MPLS over T1s to interconnect our offices and handle our VOIP traffic. VPN over the public internet simply had too much latency to be useful. It's archaic, but it works.
ISDN voice is great. No lag beyond speed of light lag. No jitter. No dropouts. No analog noise. True full duplex. End to end digital. It's telephony perfected. Switzerland has residential ISDN, and when I get calls from Switzerland, they're so clear.
Far, far better than cellular or VoIP. I'm really tired of voice cell conversations with a full second of lag in them. Sometimes there's so much lag the echo suppressors can't cope.
Why are we putting up with crap voice quality on telephones?
Cat3 and below is POTS network. Quite a few newer buildings have cat5, in some cases 5E.
Cat6 is rare because the cable starts to get quite expensive for the length you need to run it, and 6A is VERY rare.
Ethernet isn't really tolerant of CAT3 cabling, and it's not that speed drops - it's just that it will cease functioning completely due to noise. That's why various DSL solutions are used instead, most current being VDSL2 allowing for up to 250mbit/s.
The dinosaurs adapted - they grew wings and trained humans to build them houses and bags of high quality food.
I say let those two long-suffering wires finally get it on with each other... enough with the twists and stress and tension already!
Tons of people still use DSL. Not every local phone co is running fiber and who in their right mind would buy from Comcast?
Only the State obtains its revenue by coercion. - Murray Rothbard
Increase in category means a more complex weave of the cabling and sometimes thicker cable. That's where the extra price comes from. In case of Cat6 they have to use thicker cable which results in a out-of-spec assembly for modern RJ45 jack, or more specifically 8 position 8 contact connector. Hence "fiddly to terminate".
But it's not so much a problem as just an annoyance. The real problem is indeed cost, as you need a lot of cabling to fully network an apartment building and price difference between good quality CAT3 and CAT6 is huge. Then there's a fact that unlike CAT3, CAT6 needs to have repeaters every 100meters according to the spec. That means that any taller buildings are likely going to have repeaters for upper floors. Which adds to the expense and complexity.
Which is utterly incapable of replacing copper pair for the simple reason known as "physics".
Really? There are millions of people running their successful small businesses on various combinations of GSM, CDMA, 3G, 4G, 802.11, and WiMax.
Most small firms don't have huge bandwidth or speed needs. They need a payment terminal to process credit cards, an email client to handle customer service, a web browser to look up parts and order materials online, someone to advertise on Google and Facebook and Twitter, and maybe an online QuickBooks account. But most of these people spend the bulk of their days on the sales floor or in the workshop. They don't need a land line, or a server rack, or even a T1. These small businesses used to use dial-up, but everything they need now is available via cellular towers and iPhones.
They don't need the constant reliability that a remote technology worker might need. If the network is down, there's always another order to be filled, a floor to be swept, or shelves to be straightened.
Their buildings still have Cat-3 wiring and old POTS phones gathering dust in the backrooms. But there's no dialtone on them anymore, and there won't be.
John
Copper will definitely be around for another 15 years, easily. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean you're guaranteed a job if that's all you know. When any technology becomes less popular quickly, there's a glut of personnel, and massive layoffs can be expected.
Copper is sure to remain in-use. While Verizon is (very slowly) going fully fiber to the home with FIOS, AT&T is sticking with U-Verse, which is fiber to the block, with copper still making-up the last mile. And that installed base of T-1s and T-3s isn't about to just go away. But like I said, telcos will need fewer and fewer people around to support the dwindling customer base, so layoffs are likely.
And besides twisted pair, there's no sign of coax disappearing any time soon.
As others have said, you should have be brushing up on your fiber optic skills. In fact you should have been learning about fiber 15 years ago like I did. That was back when every ISP on the planet was pulling huge amounts of fiber across the planet, and the future of data was obviously going to be fiber. Now, wireless (802.11 & LTE) are undercutting the bright future I expected for fiber, but only slightly, as fiber is usually the backhaul for those technologies as well.
Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
Timothy,
Learn how to post "ask slashdot" stories to the Ask Slashdot section so that filters work correctly. Otherwise what is the point in having the ability to set a filter.
'The tyrant will always find pretext for his tyranny.' - Aesop's Fables
Let me start by saying "Adapt or die". That said, as a Cisco instructor, I still teach a ton of T1/E1 and Frame Relay.
The reason is simple. Power and resiliency. When you're a government agency who is deploying massive numbers of sensors for weather and earth quake monitoring, it is often cheaper to install and maintain equipment based on a cheap pair of copper wire capable of carrying power and signal over long distances. Thanks to T1/ISDN having been designed to function over long distances when all network switching for a telephone company was centralized instead of ASDL which is last mile only, T1 is a far more attractive tech.
Others here might say "What about solar cells and batteries?" Even the most reliable batteries won't last more than 4 years in "the wild". T1 lines can run for a dozen years or more without sending out a helicopter into the mountains for repairs.
So, while I believe that T1 is dead in business unless it's in deep rural areas, it is still rapidly growing in weather, radar and earth quake monitoring.
I've just been through the experience of getting Internet connectivity to an office outside the regions covered by DSL and Cable Internet (by a half mile). I had a choice to spend megabucks to have ISDN/T1/T3 run out, or choose a wireless solution. While, I'd certainly prefer DSL or Cable Internet, and then T1/T3, and only fall back to ISDN if the only other choice was dial-up. True ISDN could be coupled to get higher bandwidth, in fact you can bundle ISDN up to T1 speeds, but that's not basic ISDN.
I choose to pick up an aircard and a wireless router with a USB port for aircards (ebay and amazon under $50). The office is in a region with 4G covereage, and actually has higher throughput than the local Cable and DSL providers offer. Of course it means paying for connectivity by the inch, or rather the GB ($80 for 10). So the solution is more expensive than local Cable or DSL, but less to install and less monthly than ISDN or bundled ISDN. T1 one would be nice, but not cost effective. But even 3G speeds would beat basic ISDN, and would be cheaper. Cost is a concrern for all businesses. Size of a company and bandwidth are the determining points. This is a small office for a small company. ISDN/T1/T3 are for large offices with a need for large pipes. But fiber will eventually replace all that, it's happening now. If the ISDN/T1/T3 business doesn't adapt it will die.
Wireless and fiber are the future. Eventually enterprising people with T1s will offer wireless access and drive the prices down, and everyone will begin billing by the GB. It will all level out in the end. Without any provable collusion between the providers at all.
Copper is dead. Long live copper ... and fiber.
Point of order:
It's technically Ethernet that requires repeaters every 100 meters, regardless of whether it's classic 10 megabit over Cat3 (which is within specification, by the way) or GigE over Cat6.
Other networking technologies can get further distances over the same quality cable (DSL being a prime example: it technically only requires "Cat3", often works over cabling that technically isn't even that, and has the ability to span distances of over 1,000 meters).
IMHO, for last mile and some access layer backhaul I think wireless will win out, core backhaul will remain wired.
My reasons:
- Once wireless's speeds become "good enough", the focus will be more on reliability and security.
- Given that its now near impossible to knock a RC plane out of the sky with interference unless you blanket the entire 2.4 band (while not impossible, still somewhat difficult to do over a wide area, plus tracking down such a large transmission source would be extremely easy and consume allot of power, only really possible for a government).
It will take some time to reach this point so I guess these are medium to long term predictions.