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Breaking Supercomputers' Exaflops Barrier

Nerval's Lobster writes "Breaking the exaflops barrier remains a development goal for many who research high-performance computing. Some developers predicted that China's new Tianhe-2 supercomputer would be the first to break through. Indeed, Tianhe-2 did pretty well when it was finally revealed — knocking the U.S.-based Titan off the top of the Top500 list of the world's fastest supercomputers. Yet despite sustained performance of 33 petaflops to 35 petaflops and peaks ranging as high as 55 petaflops, even the world's fastest supercomputer couldn't make it past (or even close to) the big barrier. Now, the HPC market is back to chattering over who'll first build an exascale computer, and how long it might take to bring such a platform online. Bottom line: It will take a really long time, combined with major breakthroughs in chip design, power utilization and programming, according to Nvidia chief scientist Bill Dally, who gave the keynote speech at the 2013 International Supercomputing Conference last week in Leipzig, Germany. In a speech he called 'Future Challenges of Large-scale Computing' (and in a blog post covering similar ground), Dally described some of the incredible performance hurdles that need to be overcome in pursuit of the exaflops barrier."

56 of 96 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 1

    They're building a god.

  2. Barrier? by holmstar · · Score: 1

    How is exaflop a barrier? Is there some atypical difficulty in exceeding an exaflop?

    1. Re:Barrier? by Tastecicles · · Score: 2

      yeah, strange harmonics and shit, and word around the cooler is that it would require an infinite amount of energy as well... that or set the atmosphere on fire or some shit.

      --
      Operation Guillotine is in effect.
    2. Re:Barrier? by holmstar · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm sure the same sort of things were said about a petaflop machine, back in the day. Doesn't make exaflop a barrier. Just an engineering challenge, like every other bleeding edge supercomputer has been.

    3. Re:Barrier? by Zargg · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I'm pretty sure the parent is questioning why the word "barrier" is used instead of something like "milestone", which I would have chosen. A barrier implies there is something special stopping you there that you need to work around or resolve, but milestone is just a convenient number to stop at, as in this case. I see no difference between passing exaflop and say 0.9 exaflop, since both require "a really long time, combined with major breakthroughs in chip design, power utilization and programming", so it isn't a barrier, just a convenient number.

    4. Re:Barrier? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes, it's the quantitative carrot... when I was learning parallel computing, teraflops were the fantasy milestone we'd reach some day and terabytes was the crazy storage you imagined existed in some NSA datacenter, rather than in your cousin's USB drive. People feel like brilliant strategists every time they point out the next 500-1000x milestone and declare that as the thing that matters to differentiate themselves from all the myopic folk working on today's problem.

    5. Re:Barrier? by PingPongBoy · · Score: 1

      It is a barrier, but that being said it just means no one has done it yet. It doesn't mean it's impossible. A barrier is something to strive to overcome and in spite of all the striving, it feels like a fully blown case of Zeno's paradox, for a while. Only now that we're so much closer to the day that an exaflops will be reached, it seems that we must all chatter about it lest no one will have enough motivation to actually make it happen.

      --
      Know your pads. One time pad: good for cryptography. Two timing pad: where to take your mistress.
    6. Re:Barrier? by alexandre_ganso · · Score: 1

      It's just speech. It's a milestone. It's not difficult to exceed one exaflops (the name stands for operations per second, it's not a plural) once you got to, say, 0.99 exaflops. Scientists like to talk in orders of magnitude. Right now we are in the tens of petaflops, but didn't get yet to hundreds. Tiahne-2 gets to 55 pflops, but its sustained speed is a bit bigger than half of that.

      Problem is much more about how to get there. It's not just machinery. Is how to actually write and debug programs at that scale. As we cannot make the cores much faster than what we have today, the solution is to add more cores.

      The added cores increase the stress on the network, and makes programming such thing much more difficult. Good luck debugging a race condition on one million processes.

      Other problems arise from things as mundane as equipment breaking. Think that if you have a single broken memory chip during the execution of a program, the whole computation is either compromised or just lost. And with millions of cores, comes millions of motherboards, power supplies, I/O system, storage, all kinds of electronic components which are subject to problems.

      So, while technically, it's not a barrier per se, this huge number of variables that makes things exponentially more complex than what we have today is indeed a barrier. As someone asked here, we cannot just make a cluster of tianhe-2s. The thing would be breaking all the time, spending so much electricity and manpower for maintenance that its uptime would be smaller than a windows 98 unpatched machine connected to an open network.

    7. Re:Barrier? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      There is nothing special about reach the exaflop level, unlike say the sound barrier where there are real physical forces that make it difficult to pass.

      Scaling is a challenge of course, but the difference between say 0.9 exaflops and 1.1 exaflops is basically just money.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  3. NVIDIA's bread and butter long term by storkus · · Score: 2

    My take away from reading this and the blog post is that, while NVIDIA may consider graphics to be their bread & butter, it looks like they're looking at this space (HPC) very seriously in the long term--perhaps they even think they can dominate it. This is a big difference from the other players: IBM isn't bothering to throw POWER at it, and AMD/ATI is only present on older machines; ATI in particular seems more interested in going after the mobile space rather than HPC. I don't know what to make of Intel other than they know they're the choice for the non-GPU side and are at the top of their game.

    One problem I see is that NVIDIA is still a fabless house and has performance limitations tied to whatever fab they partner with; perhaps this is why they downplay process gains in the blog post.

    Of course, if the conspiracy theorists are to be believed, NSA and friends already have this 10-years-into-the-future technology...

    1. Re:NVIDIA's bread and butter long term by ebno-10db · · Score: 2

      Of course, if the conspiracy theorists are to be believed, NSA and friends already have this 10-years-into-the-future technology...

      I heard 20 years - they're still learning stuff from the Roswell crash.

    2. Re:NVIDIA's bread and butter long term by causality · · Score: 1

      Of course, if the conspiracy theorists are to be believed, NSA and friends already have this 10-years-into-the-future technology...

      With a nearly unlimited budget, no need to sell a product or make a profit, some of the best and brightest talent in the world (they especially like math majors), and the ability to spy on and thus learn from nearly anyone ... well, they'd be pretty damned incompetent if they somehow aren't ahead of the mainstream. Make no mistake, "national security" is a very high-stakes game, these are people who play to win, and "winning" means superiority.

      That is a conspiracy theory? Usually those involve aliens or globalists bankers and such. This? This is two plus two type of material.

      --
      It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education. - Einstein
    3. Re:NVIDIA's bread and butter long term by fpabd.tk · · Score: 1

      Nvidia'a Performance Is Good Enough ForMe

    4. Re:NVIDIA's bread and butter long term by HuguesT · · Score: 2

      Actually Intel is pretty much the king of the hill at the moment for HPC. They don't have a "GPU" solution, but they do have a massively parallel CPU + PCIe compute card available called the "Xeon Phi". Extremely confusing, yet this is what the current fastest supercomputer uses

      http://www.datacenterdynamics.com/focus/archive/2013/06/xeon-phi-powered-supercomputer-tops-top500

      Xeon phi is easier to deal with than Nvidia's solution for GPU, essentially because it is currently much easier to program.

      http://goparallel.sourceforge.net/independent-test-xeon-phi-shocks-tesla-gpu/

  4. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by elfprince13 · · Score: 2

    Dunno about "top secret", but the DoE puts a huge amount of computing resources into physical simulation. Check out some of the NERSC projects (GTC, for example).

  5. 2 gigawatts... by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

    Hmm, Mr. Fusion is due in a couple of years...

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
  6. Mea Culpa by Taco+Cowboy · · Score: 1

    Oops, sorry,

    Should have used "tera" in place for "giga" ...

    --
    Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
    1. Re:Mea Culpa by ebno-10db · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Should have used "tera" in place for "giga"

      I'm getting tired of all the prefixes, couldn't we just use scientific notation? 1e18 flops means a lot more to me than exaflop.

    2. Re:Mea Culpa by Blaskowicz · · Score: 2

      1 exponentiated to the 18th power is still 1.

  7. Imagine by Penumbra · · Score: 1

    Imagine a beowulf cluster of.... What? All supercomputers are basically beowolf clusters now? Umm...Ok, is Natalie Portman still topical?

  8. Re:Has this been turned into another pissing conte by CODiNE · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Well I don't know anything at all about nuclear simulations and fluid dynamics modeling...

    But for pure benefit to mankind I'd say folding@home is a pretty worthy project. It's been running for years and has helped make actual discoveries and raised understanding of protein folding's effects.

    According to Wikipedia it was running at 14 Petaflops when last updated. Would taking that up to an exaflop be a huge benefit? You bet!

    How about being able to simulate an entire life cycle of a human body at atomic scale? That would gain us tremendous understanding of well... EVERYTHING.

    Most definitely there are worthy projects that have a real need for exaflop computing and it's not a waste of time.

    You remind me of my friend who years ago said that his 802.11b wireless network was as fast as he'd ever need. Guess he didn't plan on people watching multiple HDTV streams throughout the house.

    --
    Cwm, fjord-bank glyphs vext quiz
  9. That'd be quite a piss! by EETech1 · · Score: 1

    So if we JUST put roughly 30 of the Tianhe-2s or 500,000 nodes with 100,000,000 computing cores in one big system, we'd have our exascale computer!

    Anyone want to venture a guess how long it'd take Intel to make 1,000,000 Xeons and 1,500,000 Phis?

    I can't wait to see the day, but me thinks we have a long way to go!

    I can't believe some folks thought the Tianhe-2 was going to be the one to break the exaflop barrier! OOPS, only made it 3% of the way there...

    Cheers!

    1. Re:That'd be quite a piss! by davester666 · · Score: 1

      So, we need a beowulf cluster of Tianhe-2's?

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    2. Re: That'd be quite a piss! by Metahominid · · Score: 1

      Hahah, quite nice. You sir should do standup.

    3. Re:That'd be quite a piss! by timeOday · · Score: 2

      So if we JUST put roughly 30 of the Tianhe-2s or 500,000 nodes with 100,000,000 computing cores in one big system, we'd have our exascale computer!

      Actually, no, that's the problem/challenge... linking 30 Tianhe-2s would make a supercomputer that is only slightly faster than a single Tianhe-2, because the cores would mainly be sitting idle due to communication latency. Granted this is not true for computations that are completely parallel (e.g. cracking passwords) but that is NOT what "exaflop" means; it means an exaflop on a scientific computing benchmark.

    4. Re:That'd be quite a piss! by amaurea · · Score: 1

      Exactly. Also, if you just link lots of these together naively, the computation would be crashing all the time, never having time to finish, because the currently standard ways of communicating (such as MPI) make it difficult to handle the loss of a single process, and when you're starting to talk about many millions of nodes, the chances that not a single one of them will crash in the space of the minutes to hours a computation takes is pretty minuscule.

  10. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by iggymanz · · Score: 1

    humans will even worship a rock or lump of baked clay, for something to be a "god" only requires worshipers.

  11. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by iggymanz · · Score: 1

    you'll be glad too know I use money and consumerism only to worship myself.

  12. Why by ShooterNeo · · Score: 1

    Does anyone have an idea of what these extremely expensive systems are even for? And don't say password cracking/NSA, because both of those tasks are "embarrassingly parallel", so that you can use a cloud of separate computers rather than a tightly interlinked network like a supercomputer.

    Are there real world problems right now where another 100x more CPU power would make real, practical differences? (versus making the algorithm more efficient, etc)

    1. Re:Why by gkndivebum · · Score: 1

      CFD simulation. Lattice Boltzmann simulations of fluid dynamics is one such application. Folks at the various DOE national laboratories have a pretty keen interest in this kind of simulation.

      --
      Breathe continuously
    2. Re:Why by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      Exascale computers would be helpful for climate modeling. Right now climate models don't have the same resolution as weather models, because they need to be run for much longer periods of time. This means that they don't have the resolution to simulate clouds directly, and resort to average statistical approximations of cloud behavior. This is a big bottleneck in improving the accuracy of climate models. They're just now moving from 100 km to 10 km resolution for short simulations. With exascale they could move to 1 km resolution and build a true cloud-resolving model that can be run on century timescales.

  13. yea but by Osgeld · · Score: 1

    we all know Chinese numbers represent a value exactly 14% less than what the rest of the world agrees on.

  14. Information != benefit by Ottibus · · Score: 1

    But for pure benefit to mankind I'd say folding@home is a pretty worthy project. It's been running for years and has helped make actual discoveries and raised understanding of protein folding's effects.

    According to Wikipedia it was running at 14 Petaflops when last updated. Would taking that up to an exaflop be a huge benefit? You bet!

    While not wishing to critisise folding@home specifically, we should be careful not to assume that there is an automatic progression from data to knowledge to understanding and hence to benefit. And with rising costs (both financial and environmental) we should not blindly assume that building huge supercomputers or running millions of inefficient home computers 24/7 is an inherently good idea.

    1. Re:Information != benefit by alexandre_ganso · · Score: 2

      Huge supercomputers have the advantage that they are efficient, when compared to projects such as those running "@home", and their interconnects allows them to solve problems that need strong communications between the computing elements. Such problems cannot be solved in an efficient way by this "@home" model, where a machine receives a work unit, computes it and returns the result for final aggregation.

      Those interconnects can sum to as much as half the price of building a supercomputer.

      When you mention the environmental rising costs, I suspect you mean the carbon footprint, caused by energy consumption for manufacturing and operating those machines. The costs are not negligible, granted, but they are probably not as big as that caused by the cars of the thousands of scientists who use such machines :-) This is especially true in US, where cars are horribly inefficient, public transport from the suburbs to research centers is spotty and distances are large.

      I understand that these environmental costs are much smaller than the benefits given by the use of such machines. Remember that supercomputers are used to simulate things such as nuclear explosions, ballistics and radiation decay. The costs for the environment are certainly better than blowing atomic bombs around! Not to mention the gains in health research, for example.

      So, yes, there is a HUGE demand for such behemoths, and they are much better than the alternative.

  15. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by davester666 · · Score: 1

    So, you are claiming that Obama is really a puppet animated by a DoE supercomputer, running software written by the NSA?

    --
    Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
  16. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by wonkey_monkey · · Score: 1

    It won't work. Captain Kirk will just ask it what love is and it'll blow itself up.

    --
    systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
  17. Moore's law. by rew · · Score: 1

    Moore's law predicts that the "factor-of-33" will be bridged in about 10 years. There is only a factor of 20 to the "peak performance", so about a year before that, peak performance might topple the exabyte "barrier".
    (Some people plug in different constants in Moore's law. I use factor-of-1000 for every 20 years. That's 30 every 10, 2 every 2, and about 5 every five. This has never failed me: it always works out).

    1. Re:Moore's law. by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

      I think the DOE was predicting last year that their first exascale system will come online in 7 to 9 years.

  18. Re: singularity by crutchy · · Score: 1

    artificial intelligence will never match natural stupidity

  19. Re:Has this been turned into another pissing conte by crutchy · · Score: 1

    You know, it's comment like this is why I rarely bother coming back to slashdot anymore.

    You know, it's comments like this is why i think you're a total dweeb, and everyone knows you really can't get enough of /. while you're sitting there cooped up in your "command center" in your mom's basement stuffing your pizza face with McDonald's fries.

    And no doubt behind Slashdot you have a bunch of tabs with Google image searches for "boobies".

  20. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by crutchy · · Score: 1

    Those are called "sheeple" by those who truly understand the distinction

    no, they're called apple customers

  21. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by crutchy · · Score: 1

    So, you are claiming that Obama is really a puppet animated by a DoE supercomputer, running software written by the NSA?

    fuck no... obama isn't that smart... he's more like a commodore 64 with a virus

  22. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by crutchy · · Score: 1

    That reminds me, what exactly IS that top secret program they use the Department of Energy's super computer for?

    virtual porn... the government felt it would be a little unethical to use pixar's infrastructure

  23. This isn't going to happen for awhile. by Dputiger · · Score: 1

    We're at 5.4% of exaflop scale. Somehow I don't think this is a 2013 / 2014 goal ;)

  24. "Some developers" make ridiculous predictions by tgeller · · Score: 1

    Some developers predicted that China's new Tianhe-2 supercomputer would be the first to break through.

    Wait... *what* uninformed developer(s) predicted that? The previous record (six months ago) was set by Titan, at 17.59 Petaflop/s. So to pass the exaflop barrier this time around would require over a fifty-fold improvement -- something never before seen in the history of the Top500 list. Did someone *really* make this prediction, or is author Kevin Fogarty just making shit up?

    --
    Tom Geller
  25. Oracle already did by gtirloni · · Score: 1

    Unless the expensive Exadata box we just bought isn't capable of the exa-stuff they promised.

    --
    none
  26. It has slown down by Blaskowicz · · Score: 1

    A more pessimistic estimate would say Moore's law only gets you a doubling every 3 years nowadays, so a factor of 32 would take 15 years to work out. See the troubles there were for e.g. TSMC moving to 28nm, and now 20nm.
    An exaflops supercomputer would still be possible, with a 10x boost from Moore's law over 10 years and building a 3x bigger supercomputer.

  27. 1000x buys 6x 4D grid size by peter303 · · Score: 1

    Mainy important science problems are at least 4D in nature: three space dimensions and time. These include weather prediction, seismic prospecting, fluid dynamics, etc. 5.6 to the fourth power is one thousand in creased cost. You either get a finer grid or larger grid.

    I heard a NOAA talk in Boulder about the erroneous Hurricane Sandy prediction. The "European" weather model correctly predicted the rare west turn of the northeastern hurricane while the US models did not. The Europeans used a 20 km would wide grid model and the SU a 32 km grid cell. The Europeans had more powerful computers. The US runs more frequent "incremental" model updates, while the Europens run fewer full calculations.

  28. chaining cellphone CPUs by peter303 · · Score: 1

    They are much lower power and somewhat lower speed than desktop CPUs. You'd have to use many more of them. Some projects are trying this.

  29. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by Ambitwistor · · Score: 1

    The Jaguar/Titan system mentioned in your link is used for unclassified scientific computing. The NSA is building a computer facility at ORNL, but that's a different system (and was never claimed to be for stockpile stewardship). They don't put classified jobs onto unclassified systems.

  30. Re: singularity by ImdatS · · Score: 1

    The human brain can perform around 200-2,000 Petaflops (0.2 - 2 Exaflops) - when we compare it to computers.

    The problem is that we can only access the conscious part, which is probably in the range of 100-200 Flops (Note, no mega, giga, or tera).

    The subconscious part is where the real processing power lies. If we could simulate that in a computer, it would be tremendous in maybe understanding how it works.

    For example: the human brain has the ability to "foresee" the future within a timeframe of around 0.2 seconds (or less). How does it do this? How does that work? Is it only a result of huge processing power or something else? Does two exaflops result in consciousness?? Questions after questions...

  31. Re: singularity by NemoinSpace · · Score: 1

    This comment is more insightful than funny. I doubt a machine could ever reproduce this condition. When is the last time you met a stupid person? Sure, at the time I'm it was very frustrating. But even to this day, you remember a lot of them, and it makes you feel good. Doesn't it?

  32. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by iggymanz · · Score: 1

    nonsense, man is the measure.

  33. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 1

    Damn you Kirrrrrk!

  34. Re:Department of Energy secret supercomputer by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 1

    And yet when it comes to getting elected, he seems pretty clever, or at least more clever than the competition.

  35. Xeon Phi vs GPU by Ottibus · · Score: 2

    The advantage of Xeon Phi cards is that parallelization on those cards works similar like classical parallelization on supercomputers.

    Not really, no. Classic supercomputers were vector machines whereas Xeon Phi is wide SIMD.

    You just use MPI

    MPI is equally applicable to GPU or Xeon Phi, it operates at a level above the raw computation. In both cases you have controlling CPUs with accelerators attached (GPU in once case, Xeon Phi in the other). MPI is used to manage the data flow between these units but has little to do with the architecture of those units themselves.

    For GPUs, on the other hand, you have to adapt a lot of code.

    You have to adapt code either way:

    For GPU you express the problem as a scalar kernel that is executed in parallel. You have to make sure that the work doesn't overlap but you only have to consider one element at a time.

    For SIMD you break your problem in to SIMD-width chunks that are computed in parallel. It is easier to synchronise operations but you have to fit the problem into chunks of the right size.

    Xeon Phi has an advantage where you have existing SIMD code (e.g. SSE), but if you are starting from scratch then there is no clear winner. And HPC code is increasingly being written in languages like OpenCL and CUDA which are designed for GPU rather than SIMD.