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Opinion: Apple Should Have Gone With Intel Instead of TSMC

itwbennett writes "Apple is planning to have its ARM processors manufactured by TSMC — a move that blogger Andy Patrizio thinks is a colossal mistake. Not only is TSMC already over-extended and having trouble making deadlines. But Intel was clearly the better choice: 'Intel may be struggling in mobility with the Atom processors, but Intel does yields and manufacturing process migration better than anyone,' says Patrizio. 'While TSMC wrestles with 28nm and looking to 20nm, Intel is at 22nm now and moving to 14nm for next year. This is important; the smaller the fabrication design, the less power used.'"

42 of 229 comments (clear)

  1. Ultrabook II? by symbolset · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Remember when Intel took the MacBook air design and turned it into the Ultrabook reference design for its Wintel PC OEMs? Why would Apple not want that to happen again, only faster?

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    1. Re:Ultrabook II? by gl4ss · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Remember when Intel took the MacBook air design and turned it into the Ultrabook reference design for its Wintel PC OEMs? Why would Apple not want that to happen again, only faster?

      hmmrhh. that's not the reason. apple is still happy buying the latest and greatest from intel.
      the reason intel isn't fabbing arms is that they get better money out of fabbing haswell with their production capability.

      Apple nor anyone else wants to pay Intel enough to go back to fabbing arm cpu's. they made some top of the line arm's back in the day, but the real money in arm wasn't top end but the bottom end and they got better things to do with their fabs.

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    2. Re:Ultrabook II? by alen · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Ultrabooks have been around since the 90's. only thing that changed is that intel is now making decent ultra low voltage CPU's and they use flash memory instead of HDD. otherwise Sony used to make some PHB happy laptops in 2000 and 2001 that were thin. PHB's loved them for travel

    3. Re:Ultrabook II? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      Remember when Intel took the MacBook air design and turned it into the Ultrabook reference design for its Wintel PC OEMs? Why would Apple not want that to happen again, only faster?

      What'd Intel do? Use rounded corners?

    4. Re:Ultrabook II? by asliarun · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Remember when Intel took the MacBook air design and turned it into the Ultrabook reference design for its Wintel PC OEMs? Why would Apple not want that to happen again, only faster?

      I disagree. Copying a form factor is not really copying design. That's a bit like saying that every hatchback car today is a copy of the original Japanese hatchbacks or whoever first produced the design. While it is true at one level, it is too simplistic a statement to make.

      Anyway - I think the biggest challenge for Intel is not its process technology (process shrinks are going to get a lot harder in every iteration, but that holds true for everyone - including Intel and probably more so for TSMC, Samsung, and others). It is actually not even an x86 vs ARM architecture thing - ARM architecture superiority has pretty much been debunked since Medfield's release.

      The biggest challenge for Intel, IMHO, is that it is simply not used to (and not geared for) SOCs. Intel has always designed and manufactured discrete chips whereas the entire mobile industry prefers, nay wants, highly integrated SOCs. This is the one aspect where Qualcomm kicks everyone's butt. To put it another way, Intel's fight is not with ARM or TSMC or AMD. Intel's fight today is with Qualcomm. Intel *needs* to get the same level of integration in its SOCs as Qualcomm - otherwise no one will want a bunch of discrete chips from Intel even if Intel shouts itself hoarse about how much better its chips are. And this goes for Apple as well. If Intel can give Apple an SOC that integrates the CPU, GPU, modems and other chips (I'm actually not an expert here but I would say things like DAC, GPS, etc. - anything that is not MEMS), I have a feeling that Apple will find it very hard to say "no".

      I don't mean to sound grand but I honestly feel that the future of semiconductors will be highly integrated one-chip SOC based solutions that are "cheap as chips".

    5. Re:Ultrabook II? by symbolset · · Score: 2

      Intel execs have been saying they would go back to the future for the right partner. Apple is that partner. Somebody is going to fab Apple's chips and use the profits to invest in newer bigger fabs. Taking that food off their competitor's plate would be a win. With the PC downturn Intel has excess capacity and cutting edge silicon fabs depreciate rather quickly. But as I put above, giving your competitors too early a look blunts first mover advantage. That is why Apple is looking at TSMC in the first place. They think Samsung is sneaking a peak. Changing to Intel does not solve that problem.

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    6. Re:Ultrabook II? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Apple nor anyone else wants to pay Intel enough to go back to fabbing arm cpu's. they made some top of the line arm's back in the day, but the real money in arm wasn't top end but the bottom end and they got better things to do with their fabs.

      Do you seriously think Apple is not fronting the cash for TSMC's upgraded fabs? Paying cash up front to suppliers so that it can get first access to the newest parts is one of Apple's key strategies and it's the reason Tim Cook got to be the CEO.

      If you ask me, Apple either knows something we don't about TSMC, or it wants to build TSMC up as a strategic move to counter Samsung, Qualcomm, Intel, and other companies.

    7. Re:Ultrabook II? by Horshu · · Score: 2

      It's amazing what people will attribute to Apple.

    8. Re:Ultrabook II? by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

      Unless someone has the price that Intel quoted to Apple, all of this speculation is worthless. One would assume that Apple is smart enough to understand the advantages of 20nm over 28nm, and the technical superiority of Intel's fabs.

      One might reasonably assume that either Intel's terms, pricing, or both were the problem, not Apple understanding less about architectures than 'blogger Andy Patrizio'.

    9. Re:Ultrabook II? by Zorpheus · · Score: 3, Informative

      Apple is known for pushing down to the limit what they pay to their suppliers, leaving nearly no profit to them. They would never pay to Intel what Intel is used to make.

    10. Re:Ultrabook II? by sg_oneill · · Score: 2

      Apple is big and rich and dumb and yadayada, but Tim Cook got Job's attention for one thing and one thing alone, the man is considered a God at procurement.

      In other words, if Tim thinks its a right move, then theres a bloody good chance that its the right move.

      He might have lousy taste compared to his predecessor, and he might have completely ballsed IOS 6 , but the man can procure, as that is his thing.

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  2. Poor premise by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sounds like a silly premise. Who says Intel would even want to do it? Why would Intel want to go back into ARM fabrication when they are trying to beat ARM chips with Atom?

    1. Re:Poor premise by tnk1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah sounds silly.

      On the other hand, why would Samsung want to make chips for Apple when Apple is suing them?

      The answer to all of these questions is money. Lots and lots of money.

    2. Re:Poor premise by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 2

      Nope. Intel makes more margins on chips made for themselves than third-party fabs do.

    3. Re:Poor premise by BasilBrush · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The silliest premise is that some blogger knows more about the issues with different chip fabs than Apple does. For that blogger to say Apple made a mistake, before we've seen any results from the deal? Stupid. Simply click bait.

    4. Re:Poor premise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      You mean the ones that are getting the crap beaten out of them by ARM on a performance-per-watt basis?

    5. Re:Poor premise by Guspaz · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There's a lot of misinformation in these comments...

      1) Intel does have a foundry business. They will make chips for third parties. They call this "Intel Custom Foundry", and they've already got clients using ARM chips (Netronome for example).

      2) Apple is a huge potential customer, to the extent that Intel doesn't currently have enough foundry capacity to make both their own chips and Apple's chips (Apple sells almost as many iOS devices as Intel does chips). Getting the contract to make Apple's SoCs would be a huge win.

      You can bet that Intel would rather that THEY were manufacturing Apple's ARM chips than TSMC.

    6. Re:Poor premise by iamhassi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The blogger's entire article is is based on hearsay, rumors and speculation. No quotes from Apple, TSMC, Intel or any other company he mentioned in the article. No facts at all in the article. Maybe Intel turned Apple down? Maybe we should trust the judgement of a billion dollar company like Apple over a silly blogger's opinion? I'm sure there's many great reasons Apple didn't choose Intel.

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    7. Re:Poor premise by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      You can bet that Intel would rather that THEY were manufacturing Apple's ARM chips than TSMC.

      I wouldn't be so sure. You're missing two things:

      • Volume. Intel has a foundry business. However, from what I've read, most of its customers are small, fabless chipmakers that deal in fairly low volume. Apple is not a small, fabless chipmaker. In fact, without doing the math, I rather suspect it to be one of the world's largest fabless chipmakers. Apple sold something on the order of 300 million iOS devices last year, each of which contained a custom CPU (and might even contain other custom parts—I'm not sure). I don't have sales numbers for Intel in 2012, but as best I could determine, that's roughly as many CPUs as Intel sold in 2011. Total. Now granted, you can stamp out a lot more A6 chips per wafer than Core i7 chips (somewhere around seven times as many, by my quick-and-dirty math), but that would still be a huge order.
      • Priority. Intel builds their own chips, and one would assume that their chips would take priority over manufacturing for a third-party contract job. Presumably, a large-volume manufacturer like Apple would want that priority to be inverted.

      Mind you, I'm not saying you're not correct, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as you're implying.

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    8. Re:Poor premise by Macman408 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      +1 to this...
      Intel has great foundries and process engineers, and they have been pretty consistently ahead of TSMC and other foundries. There are also a million reasons to NOT use Intel. For one, there is no way Apple will ever be Customer #1 at Intel - Intel will always always ALWAYS be customer #1 at their own fabs. If there's limited capacity, Apple would lose out to Intel. TSMC might not be willing to put Apple on a pedestal over all their other customers, but they at least won't be 2nd place to anybody - in a limited-capacity situation, Apple would get a fair share of some sort, rather than zero.

      There's also an argument to be made for spreading the wealth around; Intel got their leadership position because everybody bought CPUs from them, giving them huge piles of cash to invest in R&D, making it hard for everybody else (eg AMD) to compete because they don't have the process advantage that Intel does.

      Also, TSMC isn't a competitor, but Intel is trying to be with their mobile chips. TSMC sells fab space to whoever wants it, but they don't make any chips or sell any devices. Intel isn't quite a direct competitor with Apple, but there may be some desire to not give them any more profits that could be used to fund R&D of mobile chips/devices that could be used by Apple's competitors. The revenue TSMC earns will go into further process R&D, since that's their only business.

      So there are all kinds of reasons to not use Intel for fab, even assuming that they would offer it to Apple.

    9. Re:Poor premise by gnasher719 · · Score: 2

      That's never stopped Apple before. "Oh, just a recompile away is a glorious land of milk and honey, here are the tools to do it, you have two months."

      This time it _is_ just a recompile. From a portability point of view, any C / C++ / Objective C code written for ARM will run absolutely unchanged on x86 / 32bit. Every developer uses the iPhone / iPad simulator, which does actually compile to x86 32-bit code and uses a library to support all the iOS APIs.

  3. This is not a tech issue by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Intel supplies most of Apple's CPUs, yes?

    To give one supplier most or all of your business gives them a HUGE advantage over you.

    Just look at what happened to everyone who tied their business to Microsoft or IBM.

    This is a business strategy issue - not a tech one.

    Personally, I think Apple should take their cash and make their own processors, allowing for their OS to have a firmware component and thereby boosting performance and security.

    1. Re:This is not a tech issue by Chas · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Personally, I think Apple should take their cash and make their own processors, allowing for their OS to have a firmware component and thereby boosting performance and security.

      No. Even Apple isn't THAT stupid.

      There are well established players in the fab market. Why the hell would Apple spend years and BILLIONS, breaking into, then playing "catch up", getting an "also ran" up and going?

      The company's FAR more agile this way.
      One major issue on a prospective fab line (that they own themselves) could set them back years and uncountable quantities of money.
      If that happens with a fab partner, they just go and shop their business around to another fab.

      Then there's the fact that Apple just flat out DOES NOT WANT that kind of low-level engineering business. They a boutique "gadget" supplier. And they really don't want to be anything else.

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  4. Intel isn't a foundry by mozumder · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They make their own chips, and you buy what they make.

    Apple isn't going to be able to get Intel to fab their custom chips for them. That isn't Intel's business model.

    Intel sells their own CPUs. They don't sell your CPUs.

    They just happen to have the best fabs.

    1. Re:Intel isn't a foundry by alen · · Score: 2

      last year there were stories floating around that Intel wants to go into the foundry business. only because their manufacturing is so efficient that especially with the new processes being able to turn out so many CPU's per wafer they will have spare space in their fabs not producing revenue

    2. Re:Intel isn't a foundry by Guspaz · · Score: 5, Informative

      Intel *is* a foundry. They make chips for third parties. They have a whole "Intel Custom Foundry" division dedicated to this. They make chips for Cisco, Netronome, Altera, etc. Some of those chips even have ARM processors.

    3. Re:Intel isn't a foundry by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yes, Intel is a foundry. And yes, they have customers (I believe it's up to 5 right now). But, ask yourself this question: How many of those customers have successfully taped out working designs?

      The answer: one (I won't say who but you can probably find out). And they aren't selling their parts yet.

      There is a reason that Apple chose TSMC... Intel's level of support for their foundry business is poor right now. It turns out that their fancy process is a bitch to design for. Which makes sense since it's just gotten off the ground. I don't blame Apple one bit for choosing TSMC. They will probably be able to tape out 2-3x faster.

  5. Intel was not an option by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Intel's high end fabs are tasked to capacity with their own chips near as I know. They are probably not interested in taking on outside orders for ARM chips.

    Now I suppose Apple could switch over to x86, but I doubt they'd be willing to do that given that they own a big stake in ARM. Also at this point Intel doesn't have x86 processors suitable for phones. They may make such a thing in the future but they do not now.

    So ya, Intel would be the best option... if they were an option. They have fabs above and beyond anyone else, they spend billions in R&D on it and as such are nearly always a node ahead and have good yields. However, their fabs are for them. Their 22nm fabs are busily cranking out Haswell and Ivy Bridge chips. They are not for rent for cranking out ARM chips, unless something has changed since last I looked.

    1. Re:Intel was not an option by 0123456 · · Score: 2

      Yes. That's why RISC killed the x86 stone dead.

    2. Re:Intel was not an option by 0123456 · · Score: 2

      The proof of it is quite simple: look at an x86 block diagram and see how much of the silicon is devoted to decoding the obsolete ISA into something the core can actually use.

      The vast majority of the silicon is devoted to cache. I believe a modern Intel CPU uses 1% of the transistors for instruction processing before they get into the RISC core, and that's pretty much a fixed size unless you go back to simple in-order execution like the Atom, because all have to do the same amount of decoding and re-ordering.

      That's more important on a low-end CPU where the chip is much smaller so the instruction processing will take up a larger percentage of the transistors, but as ARM chips become more complex, x86 becomes more compeitive.

  6. Re:Does the CPU matter? by gl4ss · · Score: 2

    but apple will say it about anything. regardless of what it actually is.

    but look at it this way, have you seen intel doing massive discounts on their cpu's lately? do they seem like they have plenty of excess capacity? would apple pay the same for a manufactured soc as they are paying for a haswell? no.

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  7. article is wrong on all counts by edxwelch · · Score: 2

    From the article: "While TSMC wrestles with 28nm and looking to 20nm, Intel is at 22nm now and moving to 14nm for next year. "
    TSMC's 28nm process is, in fact, widely considered a big success. Although it didn't ramp up initially, quite as a fast as their customers wanted, that only lasted a few months at start of 2012. Look a bit closer you see changing nodes has problems for all manufactures (even Intel).
    20nm is in fact ahead of schedule. The likes of Altera are going to have to wait 2 years before they start producing chips on Intel's 16 nm process. While Apple will have 20nm early next year.

    1. Re:article is wrong on all counts by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2

      I think that 28 nm is actually a reason why Apple went with TSMC instead of Intel. Samsun is expected to have their 28 nm line up soon so Apple will have two suppliers for their chips. If Apple went with Intel they are at the mercy of one supplier. As far as I know Intel is using their 22 nm lines on Ivy Bridge and Haswell not ARM. They do make ARM chips but use other (older) lines.

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  8. If Apple still needed to worry about Microsoft... by jcr · · Score: 2

    Apple could buy or merge with Intel, and then announce "x86, end of life, ten years. Merry Christmas, AMD." That would be the end of Microsoft, since nobody ever wanted Windows on anything other than x86.

    Meanwhile, if Apple used Intel's fab for all of their processors, they could reduce their power consumption at a much faster pace than they're already doing. I'd love to get 20 hours of operation per charge from an iPad.

    -jcr

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  9. Blogger's ramblings by GrBear · · Score: 2

    I love the summary.. some random dude (blogger) that writes stories on the Internet has an opinion and thinks mega-billion company is making a mistake.. and this is news on Slashdot nowadays.

    How low Slashdot has fallen..

  10. Intel is *almost* a foundy by erice · · Score: 2

    Intel *is* a foundry. They make chips for third parties. They have a whole "Intel Custom Foundry" division dedicated to this. They make chips for Cisco, Netronome, Altera, etc. Some of those chips even have ARM processors.

    Intel is inching into the foundry business.
    They are *not* making chips for Altera. They have a deal with Altera to make chips at 14nm but Intel doesn't even have a production 14nm process yet. The Cisco deal was only signed in January. No word on when they expect to ship. Their shipping customers (Achronix, Tabula, Netronome) are all startups with limited volumes. Apple needs huge volume. I don't think Intel is ready for that yet.

  11. Why Does Apple Make Chips At All? by organgtool · · Score: 2

    The processor industry is full of players who spend billions of dollars trying to make marginal gains in performance. Spending tons of money on R&D for new processors makes sense if you're selling those processors to lots of other mobile electronics manufacturers, but it doesn't make sense when you're simply hoarding them for your own products. It especially doesn't make sense considering nobody is buying iPhones because of their processor specs, let alone the fact that Apple produces their own chips. Apple would be better off using commodity hardware and spending their money on improving other areas of the user experience. But since I have turned against Apple over the past few years, I'm just fine with watching them make costly mistakes. From what I've been reading, quality control at TSMC has been somewhat questionable and Apple is asking a lot from them to make these new chips with cutting-edge fab processes at a high volume and with minimal defects. I have a feeling this decision will cause trouble for Apple in the future and all of this is a result of Apple trying to punish Samsung in their childish feud.

  12. Re:Ultrabooks, not subnotebooks by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    Ultrabooks are not subnotebooks; they're designed to be as fast, if not moreso, than regular notebooks.

    "Ultrabook" is an idiotic category name to begin with. I fail to understand what's so "ultra" about it. Do we have also have "ultratops" on the stationary side of the spectrum? I thought that these were traditionally called "workstations". But it's also possible that I have a brain tumor and my memory is compromised. Just sayin'.

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  13. Mistake by ChrisMaple · · Score: 2

    Many people are posting as if Intel would be involved in chip design (for example: "Intel doesn't want to make ARMs."). Intel would be acting only as a foundry: Apple does the design work, sends Intel a set of files specifying mask geometry; Intel makes masks and fabricates the chips.

    The questions thus become, who has good enough technology and who is a reliable supplier? If Apple doesn't need the finest tech that only Intel can provide, then using Intel isn't necessary.

    TSMC having production capacity limits can be a problem, and it's likely to have delayed deliveries in a crunch. But foundry is their only business, not producing is not an option. Intel on the other hand, can decide "we need all foundries for internal use. Make your lifetime orders now; no new business will be accepted." 33 years ago (the only information I have, from a then-Reticon employee) was that this was a substantial risk in dealing with Intel as a fab.

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  14. Re:Does the CPU matter? by tlhIngan · · Score: 2

    Android manages to exist on multiple CPUs. But then it's also one of the most fragmented systems there is, with developers deciding not to develop for it as a result. So that's no advert.

    Android supports 3 architectures - ARM, x86, and MIPS.

    Of the three, ARM is most prevalent on practically all smartphones out there. x86 is pushed heavily by Intel, but exists on a tiny miniscule amount of phones (one from Motorola for Asia, and a couple of other bit players), and Intel has to bundle in an ARM emulator to at least run a decent number of apps.

    MIPS is a curiosity done more so as a platform - MIPS supporting Android for set-top boxes and the like.

    But make no mistake, Android is best supported on ARM.

  15. TSMC is TAIWANESE, not Chinese by unixisc · · Score: 2

    TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) is a Taiwanese company, not Chinese. Unless you are going by Beijing's claim that Taiwan is a part of China, but even then, the first statement doesn't make sense.

  16. Re:Why would Intel want to do that? by squiggleslash · · Score: 2

    "Wait, did someone suggest Apple should switch to Android? That's a great idea for a new article!" - John Dvorak Cringley.

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