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Hollywood's Love of Analytics Couldn't Prevent Six Massive Blockbuster Flops
Nerval's Lobster writes "In June, Steven Spielberg predicted that Hollywood was on the verge of an 'implosion' in which 'three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing to the ground.' The resulting destruction, he added, could change the film industry in radical and possibly unwelcome ways. And sooner than he may have thought, the implosion has arrived: in the past couple weeks, six wannabe blockbusters have cratered at the North American box office: 'R.I.P.D.,' 'After Earth,' 'White House Down,' 'Pacific Rim,' and 'The Lone Ranger.' These films featured big stars, bigger explosions, and top-notch special effects—exactly the sort of summer spectacle that ordinarily assures a solid run at the box office. Yet all of them failed to draw in the massive audiences needed to earn back their gargantuan budgets. Hollywood's more reliant than ever on analytics to predict how movies will do, and even Google has taken some baby-steps into that arena with a white paper describing how search-query patterns and paid clicks can estimate how well a movie will do on its opening weekend, but none of that data seems to be helping Hollywood avoid shooting itself in the foot with a 'Pacific Rim'-sized plasma cannon. In other words, analytics can help studios refine their rollout strategy for new films—but the bulk of box-office success ultimately comes down to the most elusive and unquantifiable of things: knowing what the audience wants before it does, and a whole lot of luck."
And sooner than he may have thought, the implosion has arrived: in the past couple weeks, six wannabe blockbusters have cratered at the North American box office: 'R.I.P.D.,' 'After Earth,' 'White House Down,' 'Pacific Rim,' and 'The Lone Ranger.'
That's only five movies, not six. Was that number a typo, or did you leave a movie out?
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How about Gone With the Wind, E.T., Doctor Zhivago http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films#Highest-grossing_films_adjusted_for_inflation
It's international numbers are huge and it hasn't even opened in Asia yet where it's expected to do EXTREMELY well. The more stories I see calling Pac Rim a "bomb" despite the numbers it's racking up are starting to make me think this article:
http://comicsbeat.com/hollywood-mystery-who-is-trying-to-kill-pacific-rim/
is less tinfoil woo-woo and more the real story.
Tom Cruise hasn't had a $100M movie that wasn't a Mission: Impossible sequel in eight years
Tom's last three films:
Rock of Ages grossed only $59M
Jack Reacher grossed $216M
Oblivion has grossed $285M
Other notiables - War of the Worlds grossed over $700M, Valkyrie grossed over $200M, Knight and Day $261M.
That's most of his non-MI sequel films over the last 8 years.
You were saying?
It's way too early to mark Pacific Rim off as a flop.
As of today it's worldwide haul is $175 Million, which is close to it's actual budget of $180 million.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=pacificrim.htm
It has not yet opened in China or Japan, where it is expected to do gangbusters business. It may or may not make back the marketing costs and become profitable, but there is a good chance that it will, which will put it into the esteemed category of "Movies people think were flops but which actually weren't".
The jury is still out.
The funny thing is, Hollywood may come to the conclusion that there is a direct relationship between how crappy a movie is and how well it does.
Although this is not a set-in-stone relationship (I'm looking at you, Jon Carter); the general rule of thumb is, the crapper a movie is, as determined by RottenTomatoes/MetaCritic, the worse it does over the long run.
And Pacific Rim, by the way, is NOT a flop, at least not yet. It's made $175 million, and it's budget was $180 million.
Citizen Kane has a shit ton of special effects. Double exposures, matte paintings and set extensions, miniatures, etc. In fact the film is known for using these techniques very well.
Ahem. Sturgeon's Law. Fnord.