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Hollywood's Love of Analytics Couldn't Prevent Six Massive Blockbuster Flops
Nerval's Lobster writes "In June, Steven Spielberg predicted that Hollywood was on the verge of an 'implosion' in which 'three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing to the ground.' The resulting destruction, he added, could change the film industry in radical and possibly unwelcome ways. And sooner than he may have thought, the implosion has arrived: in the past couple weeks, six wannabe blockbusters have cratered at the North American box office: 'R.I.P.D.,' 'After Earth,' 'White House Down,' 'Pacific Rim,' and 'The Lone Ranger.' These films featured big stars, bigger explosions, and top-notch special effects—exactly the sort of summer spectacle that ordinarily assures a solid run at the box office. Yet all of them failed to draw in the massive audiences needed to earn back their gargantuan budgets. Hollywood's more reliant than ever on analytics to predict how movies will do, and even Google has taken some baby-steps into that arena with a white paper describing how search-query patterns and paid clicks can estimate how well a movie will do on its opening weekend, but none of that data seems to be helping Hollywood avoid shooting itself in the foot with a 'Pacific Rim'-sized plasma cannon. In other words, analytics can help studios refine their rollout strategy for new films—but the bulk of box-office success ultimately comes down to the most elusive and unquantifiable of things: knowing what the audience wants before it does, and a whole lot of luck."
These films featured big stars, bigger explosions, and top-notch special effects
Maybe they'll start making... (gasp)... actual plots to accompany those stars/explosions/special effects?
These days there is so little to a story and much more to the effects. There will be good blockbusters sure, but the better ones are about the story (ie, Lord of the Rings/Hobbit/etc).
Movies used to be a form of art, not a form of science. And the science is not there to make a good movie, but how to extract as much money as possible.
the price of the movies as gone up way to much it's at the point where it's much better to ppv at home.
The same thing that is killing USA's Auto companies (save tesla), Boeing, and hollywood, is that MBA's now run things.
Hollywood USED to be about making the best ART. Now, with the MBA's, it is about making short-term profit.
Likewise, Boeing used to make the best aircrafts (in both military AND commercial). The 787 is all about making short-term profit (in the same way that GE does).
Then US car companies, GM and Ford, used to be about making the best car possible. Now, it is about making short-term profits.
If we really want to restore America, we need to roll back the changes that reagan did. In particular, we need to require that executives NOT own any of the publicly-traded stock in that industry.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
but the bulk of box-office success ultimately comes down to the most elusive and unquantifiable of things: knowing what the audience wants before it does, and a whole lot of luck.
My personal pet theory is a lot simpler:
Not overfeeding them on the same stuff.
There are only so many times you can see the same movie and enjoy it. Hollywood blockbusters have largely turned into remixes of the same movie. If you know anything about storywriting, you've long realized that almost all Hollywood movies have the same script. Not just similarities the way most stories have, say, a beginning, a middle and an end, or a dramatic curve with a typical shape, but actually the same fucking script. Replace specifics like names, locations or technologies/species/etc. (giant robots/aliens/monsters/whatever) with placeholders and you'll see that they're pretty much all telling the same story.
And you can only hear the same story so often before it gets boring.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
I haven't gone to see any of these movies not because I wasn't _mildly_ interested, but because it wasn't worth $14--$17 times three: the cost of bringing myself and my family. That is a lot of cash to see a "meh" movie. It wasn't long ago that movies used to cost $6 a head.
Perhaps the geniuses in Hollywood should use their analytics to actually pick per-movie MSRPs: something they can do with Google's analytics, after they've already bought the movie and are just trying to maximize their investment. Or if that would piss off customers, then just decide to roll out movies such that 3D is the same price as 2D as a special "bonus" or promotion, to effectively bring the price down on movies that you are afraid aren't going to do as well as you thought pre-production.
--"You are your own God"--
big stars, bigger explosions, and top-notch special effects
—exactly what keeps me away from cinemas.
At least 10 years out of date.
You now need to spec 'first gross' or all the gross is gone before your turn to get a cut.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
I love Tarantino movies - lots of people love Tarantino movies - lots of people really really hate Tarantino movies.
I liked Watchmen. I thought it was excellent even if it did depart from the book a bit and yes, maybe grew a little dull at times, but was deep enough to get into. Fully half the theater walked out during the first half hour I was in there.
Rocky Horror sucks. The people who like Rocky Horror will tell you it sucks. It's the longest in-box office run of any movie every. It was made before I was born and it still shows every weekend at a theater a half mile from my apartment.
The problem with Hollywood movies today is they use the freaking formulas.
Star Wars - though a formula setter - didn't follow movie formulas of 1977. Yes, say all you want about it being stolen source material, I fully believe you, but it's not how movies were made back then. I know plenty of people who hate Star Wars, not a lot since I chose not to associate with those sorts, but there are many, many people out there who consider themselves too good for such low-brow action flicks.
Avatar - biggest hit of all time. Yes all the block-buster formulas applied, but it also had formula breaking blends of primitive people, aliens, advanced species, spiritual and technical aspects. Even while complying with every blockbuster formula out there it twisted in subject matter only really addressed properly in Japanese Anime and threw in every movie category possible and made it work. On the flip side - Suckerpunch tried exactly the same thing and failed because they focused too heavily on making it look cool and forcing the fact they did so on you. Avatar did it seamlessly.
With the exception of maybe Avatar most of the movies I mentioned, that succeeded or even better yet, did okay but got a cult following had tons of haters. They will endure because of it.
IMHO cult status trumps block buster opening any day. Yes, fine, huge payday on a blockbuster up front, this is what studios want. Cult movies are more of a long term investment. They keep on giving. Disney has learned this, they're milking movies that flopped forty years ago today and making a profit. Disney has learned that movies are long term investment, not just box office warriors. They build a brand and milk it.
You can milk a cult movie. No one cares about a box office hit they forget about and nobody talks about a few years later.
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Blu ray is $25 or so
Movie theater is $30 plus the junk food and other costs to see a movie once
If they want people to pay premium prices offer a premium experience
Roomier seats
Kick out people making noise
No kids in adult movies
No babies
Here's a thought. Stop trying to throw 3D pies in my face and actually sell me a persuasive plot. If you don't want me to wait for Netflix, provide a compelling experience at a fair price.
Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once
Not even piracy is to blame - Redbox is. Why should I pay $24 to take my husband and myself to a movie today, when we can wait two months and get the same movie from Redbox along with our groceries for a tenth of the cost - and not have to deal with a hundred other human beings, their cell phones, and screaming children in a smelly movie theater?
Occasionally living proof of the Ballmer peak.
It's the entertainment industry in a nutshell - the second an act or movie becomes popular, EVERY studio/label/whatever clones it in an attempt to cash in on the success. Backstreet Boys takes off and sells millions? Enter N'Stync, 98 Degrees, etc. Dark Knight racks up a billion dollars worldwide? Now every superhero movie has to be "dark" and "gritty." Nirvana sells millions of records and overtakes Michael Jackson in the top 40? Enter the grunge era where every band that uses distortion and 4 power chords gets a record deal.
Very few people have "original" thoughts. Everyone else is about oversaturating the market to try to get their little piece of the pie.
Not even piracy is to blame - Redbox is.
Video rentals long predate Redbox. They were around 30 years ago.
Well, I saw "Pacific Rim", and it wan't a shitty movie. It wasn't a great movie, either. It was mediocre, in a particular way that seems to be becoming more common as businesses begin to feel more confident crunching the numbers on a work of art. It's happening in publishing too, as second tier authors churn out clones of The Dresden Files, Sookie Stackhouse, The Hunger Games, and of course, Twilight. The formula is "Like X but with Y" -- e.g. "Like Twilight, but with zombies." Some literary agents are even asking for this kind of summation in query letters.
I think this is because on a spreadsheet at least, it looks like you can make money without risk these days, if you just get the formula right. Usually these mediocre "me-too" books and movies aren't bad; in fact they often display a high degree of a certain kind of perfection -- the kind of perfection that consists of not making too many major mistakes.
Take "Pacific Rim". It's high-concept -- giant monsters vs. giant robots -- and the script and director work hard to deliver exactly what is promised. No time is wasted on back story or set-up; the exposition is somewhat crude and artless, but it is calculated to take the minimum time possible to get the viewer to the giant robot action. You have to admire the high level of artistic discipline required to predictably churn out something serviceably mediocre, but it means that you won't get something great. If *all* you're looking for in a movie is CGI battles between giant robots and monsters, it'd be hard to improve on "Pacific Rim"; it's just that most of us, even mecha-loving geeks, kind of appreciate a story that has a bit more creative excitement in it.
I've made something of an effort over the last couple of years to go back and re-read many classic sci-fi novels from the 40s - 80s, and almost without exception the great stories break some canons of taste. If you read a great novel critically, you'll almost always see that it has structural or artistic flaws; rules are broken, but so that the story can reach levels you can't get to by adhering strictly to a formula. I don't know as much about cinema as I do about books, but I bet it's much the same: you've got to be willing to try some things that are wrong, or questionable at least, to rise above mediocrity.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
Batman does not have any superpowers either.
It's way too early to mark Pacific Rim off as a flop.
As of today it's worldwide haul is $175 Million, which is close to it's actual budget of $180 million.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=pacificrim.htm
It has not yet opened in China or Japan, where it is expected to do gangbusters business. It may or may not make back the marketing costs and become profitable, but there is a good chance that it will, which will put it into the esteemed category of "Movies people think were flops but which actually weren't".
The jury is still out.
Yes, I expect it will make a good profit when all worldwide takings are added up. We must also remember that movies have to gross about three times what ever it took to make them in order to break even. There is usually an expensive promotional budget on top of original production costs, and the theaters and DVD/Blu-ray retailers also get to take a profit.
The problem with Hollywood films right now can be summed up by they're killing the cat in an attempt to save it. What do I mean?
There's a popular screenwriting book called Save The Cat - The Last Screenwriting Book You'll Ever Need that sets a page by page forumla for events within a typical movie. Things like, an opening image, setting the theme, introducing the hero, start of a B plot at the beginning of Act II, cross points for A and B plots, the great False Defeat, leading up to a Crisis of Self Confidence, and then the Big Payoff.
Blah blah blah blah.
Slate has a good article on how this book as turned movies into showdown of formulaic familiarity.
It's not like the forumla is bad, per se. But if every film had been made this way we'd never have classics like Bridge Over The River Kwai, Laurence of Arabia, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Godfather, Apocalypse Now, yada yada yada. Because the formula is limited. At its heart, it harkens back to Campbell's Hero With a Thousand Faces thesis (which every /. nerd into Star Wars should have heard about). A fine way to tell the Great Hero story, but terrible for deep character studies. And that's what's missing in Hollywood film and why good television like The Sopranos, The Wire, Game of Thrones and Mad Men have become so popular (and let's not forget the first few seasons of Battlestar Galactica, which were fantastic).
In fact, George R. R. Martin's entire Song of Ice and Fire series eschews the whole Great Hero narrative and offers flawed characters with conflicting motivations told from multiple points of view, and - sorry to bring this word in on a tech site but... - that's why it's art. Which is also why Transformers isn't.
A lot of people have been discussing issues with the blockbuster cycle and financing, and that's all part of it too. But there is a serious dearth of experimental writing involved too. The whole Hollywood system is screwed up. But let's at least Thank God for HBO and other cable network financing of long form multi-episodic storytelling.
I'll drop my two cent's worth here...
For a long time, movies have been losing their appeal to me. The "theatrical experience" is not near what I expect anymore.
I am told the movie starts at 7. I arrive no later than 6:45 so I can be seated well before the movie starts. So its already dark in the theater and they continuously bombard me with loud ads, keeping me from conversing with my friends. And I am considered rude for trying to communicate with my friends before the movie even starts? Ok, 7PM arrives. Movietime! More ads. Previews. Yet more ads. Coke, cars, TV personalities. When is the show? Ok, 30 minutes go by - they have screened all their crap and finally the splash screen for the feature presentation. By this time I am wondering just what I am doing here. This was delay upon delay trying to get eat the popcorn I had ( served in a little box ) so I would have to get some more. And the drinks are single served so I gotta pay for another specimen.
Kids laughing. Babies crying. Phones ringing. Lots of distracting lights from texters. The guy behind me taking off his shoes and propping his feet up on the vacant seat right next to my nose. I ask myself why oh why did I do this?
It took several years to delete my old ways, as the old perceptions I had of the theatrical experience had lost its flavor and no longer delivered satisfaction. I felt entering into a theater was just dropping my pants for a financial screwing at the snack counter, and a royal waste of time in front of the screen. If they are going to screen all those ads to me on my time ( time between when they *say* the movie starts to when the movie actually starts ), they should at least compensate me with free snacks.
Many industries abuse their customer base. This is what happens. Demand destruction will not happen overnight, as there is a lot of habits formed over the years that have to be broken. But once broken, the onus is now on the marketer to re-establish the habit if they want to have a viable business model.
It may look like a good business move to go ahead and hike the admission price to $15, surcharge the "silver experience" tickets sold last year, take money from other businesses to run ads to your audience when they came for the movie, mark up the snacks ungodly amounts, and sell dirt-cheap popcorn in little boxes to encourage repeat sales. Consider the demand destruction as your neglected audience finds other things to do. Then make your business decision.
Consider once your customers have other plans, how do you lure them back?
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
It's not just simply a glut; it's a bad glut.
If you boil everything down to bare bones, there are only a few plots. What matters is execution. When your monster invasion movie has at least three scenes ripped off from Evangelion in the trailer alone, that is a bad sign, to give just one example.
There is a reason Nolan films do well: Nolan is not perfect, but he does go the extra length in execution.
"I know I will be modded down for this": where's the option '-1, Asking for it'?
It is an art and what makes one clothes designer great and successful and another rubbish, it is art, and entirely intuitive.
All those films listed as flops, I've seen the trailers and immediately was meh. Why? No idea really.
I enjoyed a one minute action scene in The Americans (it was edgy, unpredictable, funny, clever) more than the 2 hour (felt like) big battle at the end of Man Of Steel, and likewise Iron Man 3. Yaaaawn. Emotionally it was just endless boredom. It gets to the point where you're watching and just thinking... Matrix I, oh now we're doing Dr Octopus, oh now we're doing Bourne, etc.
Yet some years ago the latter would have seemed impressive.
I think TV writers understand this better or have better opportunities to weave complex stories and set up more sophisticated surprises and shocks.
NOW I know Joss Wheedon is going to kill a favourite character right in the middle of me laughing at something else... now I know... and writers know I know... so they have to think of something more clever.
They can still invent clever things in blockbusters -- like for me how they used the three levels of dream in Inception to overlay three action sequences running at different speeds, that was cool.
But honestly, most of the appeal of Iron Man for me was Downey's version of the character, whilst all the ohh look terrorists ohh look action was very meh. Ben Kingsley's switch to London drughead was the most memorable thing in that film.
Maybe that's it, we love the quality of characters and storytelling. The rest is just bling.
Hey I'm off to get a job as film critic now :-) Yeah I know, don't give up the day job.
I'm pretty sure ripping off scenes from Evangelion was a selling point of Pacific Rim. And let's face it: Evangelion is completely unknown to most western audiences.
Ok, 30 minutes go by - they have screened all their crap and finally the splash screen for the feature presentation.
30 minutes after the scheduled start time? Over exaggerate much? What the hell theater do you go to? Every movie I've gone to it's maybe 7 minutes after the start time. Sure there are ads before the start time but it's not like you're strapped in your seat with your eyes pinned open all Robot Chicken style being forced to watch them. Also they aren't that loud.
God help you if you try to buy it for home. When you find one movie out of the lot, where the experience was good, or you liked the plot... You bring it home, and every time you want to watch, you're forced to sit through 15 minutes of unskippable ads. W.T.F.?
Is it a wonder everyone pirates?