Slashdot Mirror
A Climate of Violence?
Rambo Tribble writes "U.S. researchers have come to the conclusion that a changing climate can drive increased violence in human society. Their findings are to reported in Science (abstract). 'They report a "substantial" correlation between climate and conflict. Their examples include an increase in domestic violence in India during recent droughts, and a spike in assaults, rapes and murders during heatwaves in the U.S. The report also suggests rising temperatures correlated with larger conflicts, including ethnic clashes in Europe and civil wars in Africa.' Marshall Burke, one of the authors, said, 'This is a relationship we observe across time and across all major continents around the world. The relationship we find between these climate variables and conflict outcomes are often very large.' Add this to the developing scarcity of water due to global warming and the prospects for a peaceful future do not bode well."
Can't this explain the South and the Middle East all in one fell swoop?
Yes it can! But only if you're willing to be intellectually lazy and refuse to acknowledge multi-input systems. Today, I'm feeling exactly that lazy.
Just like anything else that causes stress, it causes people to get upset and lash out.
Besides the fact that the DoD already incorporates climate change in their threat assessments (see http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/green_energy/dod_sustainability/2012/Appendix%20A%20-%20DoD%20Climate%20Change%20Adaption%20Roadmap_20120918.pdf and http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/green_energy/dod_sustainability/2012/Appendix%20A%20-%20DoD%20Climate%20Change%20Adaption%20Roadmap_20120918.pdf), there's the bleedingly obvious conclusion that if an area goes through enough environmental changes that mass migration is better than staying put, conflict with the surrounding areas is guaranteed.
I mean, when New Orleans was evacuated during Katrina, that already sparked enough conflict. Now imagine that the change is permanent and that it's not just a major city evacuating, but an entire geographical area. We'll find out just how far we have evolved from chimps (hint: not very much).
Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
I think either the BBC article or the /. summary is incorrect. It's well known /damn obvious that extreme climactic events cause violence in society. What's new is that they can correlate with numbers, "for each 1 standard deviation (1) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%." The /. summary is misleading and could cause the casual reader to pass by the article because it seems over obvious.
It's not the heat, it's the humanity.
. . . . is there ANYTHING it can't do ???
The last paragraphs are a pretty strong refutation:
Instead, Dr Halvard Buhaug, from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Norway, concluded that the conflict was linked to other factors such as high infant mortality, proximity to international borders and high local population density.
Commenting on the latest research, he said: "I disagree with the sweeping conclusion (the authors) draw and believe that their strong statement about a general causal link between climate and conflict is unwarranted by the empirical analysis that they provide.
"I was surprised to see not a single reference to a real-world conflict that plausibly would not have occurred in the absence of observed climatic extremes. If the authors wish to claim a strong causal link, providing some form of case validation is critical."
Some people die at 25 and aren't buried until 75. -Benjamin Franklin
Now what is all the fuss about climate change causing violets? I happen to think that violets are a lovely flower, and there should be more of them. In fact I think the world would be a more beautiful and peaceful place if there were more violets. More violets would mean more good jobs and satisfying work .... Eh?..... Just a minute ......
I have just been informed that climate change may cause more violence. Well then... never mind.
It was an homage.
much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
Probably not.
Most likely it's notjust heat so much as deviation from what people find the most comfortable.
In the US, violent crime rates have been decreasing for decades, while temperatures have been breaking records.
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-1
This has to be one of the more ridiculous claims to come out of the alarmosphere about climate change I've ever heard. There's a cool list of things that are supposed to be attributable to climate change (according to the alarmists): http://blog.heritage.org/2009/11/17/global-warming-ate-my-homework-100-things-blamed-on-global-warming/ . I guess we can add this to the list.
planet texture maps and more
this is why canada is so nice!
New Orleans had to be evacuated in days.
With climate change, you are talking about sea levels rising an inch or two per DECADE. Or heat / cold profiles of an area changing also over decades. Plenty of time for people to move on if they decide they don't like whatever changes are occurring.
But most people will stay, no matter what particular climate you find "unlivable" you'll find plenty of people already living in those conditions...
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
"I pray thee, good Mercutio, let's retire. The day is hot; the Capulets, abroad; And if we meet we shall not 'scape a brawl, For now, these hot days, is the mad blood stirring." - Romeo and Juliet, Act 3, Scene 1, right before a massive and fatal fight.
It's not un-PC - it's just incorrect. It's not just about temperatures going up. It's about wild variations in the weather patterns (droughts in some areas and floods in others), melting of the ice-caps wiping out coastal cities (where most people live), and impaired food production in countries that already have borderline temperatures.
The problem is that the negatives heavily outweigh those positives:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives-intermediate.htm
"When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
Translation: I don't like what researchers say, so I'll call them idiots and poopie-heads, and then take my own head and shove it firmly up my own ass.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
The study is weak at including other factors, such as population concentration density in its analysis. Population concentration has increased in lock step with Global Warming, and indeed density may be a key part in warming. Further, density has a much more readily measured correlation with violence. (That is you can measure the correlation it statistically in the modern era, without having to rely on sketchy records of the past).
There is still the competing theory of Tetraethyl lead, which explains not only the rise in violence, but also the recent DECLINE in violence, which the warming theory doesn't even address.
Leaded gasoline has a remarkable correspondence to violent behavior, lowered IQ, and more so in men than women. There is a 23 year lag, in the correlation. Some areas where leaded gasoline is still used correspond to the trouble spots of the world.
And yes, it goes without saying, that correlation does not imply causation, something lost in translation in the mainstream press in their rush to pin yet another evil thing onto Climate Change.
Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.