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Post-post PC: Materials and Technologies That Could Revive Enthusiast Computing
Dputiger writes "Given the recent emphasis on mobile computing and the difficulty of scaling large cores, it's easy to think that enthusiast computing is dead. Easy — but not necessarily true. There are multiple ways to attack the problem of continued scaling, including new semiconductor materials, specialized co-processor units that implement software applications in silicon, and enhanced cooling techniques to reduce on-die hot spots."
Of all the next-generation technologies that we’ve discussed at ET, including carbon nanotubes and graphene, III-V semiconductors that use materials like indium, gallium, and arsenide are by far the most likely to make an a mass market appearance within the next ten years.
[Emphasis mine]
Yeah, that article really seems to know what it's talking about.
Reality is that "enthusiast" computing today depends on what companies care to provide as "slightly ahead of the current state-of-art" at exorbitant prices. Intel's not going to launch a new CPU for enthusiasts. AMD isn't going to launch a new CPU for enthusiasts. If they do it's just because they can cherry pick some CPUs from their server process (Intel) or that can perform exceptionally well for equally high power consumption (AMD). It is so insignificant to the overall market that progress would happen the same with or without them. We're just not a significant enough portion of the market to really warrant a new process or capacity or whatever.
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
Get over it. There are plenty of other things you can tinker with if the urge strikes. RC boats and helicopters come to mind.
So, enthusiast computing switches to either smaller devices, or focuses on software development.
Doesn't really matter - how many companies cater to 'horse-and-buggy' enthusiasts, after all?
- Nec Impar Pluribus, or so I'm told.
I know there are solutions out there, but pure GHz means little to me these days. I want to actually do stuff with my PC besides play games and surf the web, my tablet has taken over those duties.
Maybe a USB Geek port so even my tablet can get in on the action?
I don't think I would say "Enthusiast Computing" are limited to people who upgrade their processor to the latest and greatest every 6 months. I would rather call those folks "PC Game Enthusiasts". I would call Enthusiast Computing things more like building Beagle Bone/Raspberry Pi clusters, or people doing more interesting things than just installing new motherboards constantly.
There is no such thing as post-PC for the same reason there is no such thing as "post-doorknob" or "post-handle."
The PC is the correct form factor for getting work done by humans. Mobile devices are not. This will only change if human physiology changes, which is unlikely in any time frame measured in intervals shorter than 100,000 years.
The "post-PC era" is a marketing slogan designed to make you buy things. It is designed to get you back on the upgrade treadmill starting from the beginning again. It is not technologically accurate.
PCs are here to stay for a very VERY long time. Get used to them.
You mean graphics rendering. Enthusiast computing died in the 80s when you no longer had to write your own software or build your computer from scratch.
The next frontier in computing is parallel processing, and we will be treading ground already walked decades ago by supercomputers: now we can fit all that performance on your desktop.
The new semiconductor technology angle in the article seem highly fishy to me. Apart from the fact that the statement felt like it may have said "In 10 years we will all be living in colonies on the moon", III-V materials have been losing market share to silicon for decades.
The article mentions that great electron mobility of the III-V materials, which is true, but forgets to mention that they had poor hole mobility. Now I am not a process expert, so maybe there are new techniques to address this. However, over the past 20 years or so this meant that you couldn't make very good CMOS logic and had to use NMOS only architectures. This and the poor scaling has kept the III-Vs away from large scale integrated logic chips.
The III-V devices were used in RF circuits, but they were replaced by Si-Ge and now many RF circuits use regular silicon processes. The III-Vs are still useful for optics.
The truth is that silicon has many problems that may prevent the industry from continuing to scale circuits to smaller geometries and the available workarounds are generally painful. But, the other options are worse.
Maybe in 10 years we will all be using cell phones that use carbon nanotubes... in our colonies on the moon.
An enthusiast wants to own his hardware, he doesn't care about 5.1 GHz uber-core machines. What the enthusiast wants is open specs, common interfaces, accessible GPIO, non-DRM memory or hardware, and open source code. Someone who buys the latest stuff from Intel and slaps Win 8.1 or Ubuntu on it so that they can run WoW is not an enthusiast they're just a rich consumer.
I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
Isn't that the definition of an ASIC ?
With the gaffe the OP has pointed out (Gallium Arsenide becomes Gallium and Arsenide) and this ... I get the impression that the article's target audiences shouldn't be the techies
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
arduino, raspberry pi, et. al. In fact my next desktop may be a cluster of ten or more SOCs.
Gallium arsenide has been just about to replace silicon for 25 years, now. And Transputers were invented in the 80s. Sure, maybe it's finally time for these to hit the mass market, but one would be ill-advised to hold one's breath waiting for it.
From the article:
Programs like "Mail" or "Messages" could be implemented in reprogrammable silicon.
You need how much compute power to read mail?
Most users just don't need that much power. Once everybody could play streaming HDTV, the couch potato market was covered. Rendering in gaming could still improve, and NPC behavior could get smarter, but really, GTA V pretty much has that nailed and it runs on last-generation consoles.
There are people who need more power, but they're running fluid dynamics simulations or rendering movies or simulating new ICs or something like that. I've run Autodesk Inventor on 24-CPU workstations. That's one of the few interactive programs that can usefully use a 24-CPU workstation. It's not a mass market product.
The applications that need vast amounts of additional compute power are there, but they're not high-volume applications. Nor are they "enthusiast" applications. There's not enough volume there to justify heavy investment in faster CPUs.
This may change as we have better robots or something like that. But speeding up existing desktop apps, no. (Program load times are still ridiculous long, but mostly because of stupidity like phoning home for updates, waiting for the license server, fetching ads, or using virtual memory in a world where memory is cheap.)
I am ready for the "Hybrid PC" where there are EEPROM chips for user level programs. All they have to do is add a couple to the mainboard, and the programs you use can write to it. When you run your programs, it checks if it is in hardware, if so, then it runs from there. For example, if you have some program like firefox, it would have an option to "write to system", then it would analyze your current hardware/software environment, then prepare a file to match, then write to EEPROM, or tell you that your current PC doesn't support it, etc. Future program calls would run firefox from the EEPROM. Obviously, some programs would benefit more than others. It would be like having a GPU for programs. Whaddya think?
We're hitting a wall on single threaded performance due to clock speed limitations, but CPU cores keep getting smaller and more power efficient. In a few years, we'll have the ability to put 32 or more cores in consumer CPUs, and it wouldn't surprise me if we have 8 core CPUs in smartphones and tablets. The key to continued performance improvements is better multi-threaded code, to allow us to effectively split up the workload across more cores.
The feature you describe (using flash EEPROM as a cache for the hard drive) has been around for years. Windows calls it "ReadyBoost". Or did I miss the joke?
I'm posting using Ubuntu running on a zedbaord.com
There's a problem with your argument. Assembling a radio form circuitry and a computer from component boards has very different implications. We'll never see prefab computers that can match a thought out custom build because these companies are too fixated on maintaining business deals with each other to make it happen.
I would love to be able to call up a computer company and tell them what I'll use my PC for and how long I plan to make it last and have them send something that matches those requirements. That's just not how the current business model works for computer companies, no you get a choice of a few general purpose machines that don't even excel in the area they are supposedly designed for.
do you people really spend alot of money and time to build a single socket machine just because?
what a giant waste of time. you can build a really fat machine with enough money. you can also
program a novel scalable system on a $200 machine.
what goal does an enthusiast have?
As an "enthusiast", for me, it's almost all about latency. I want a system that responds as close to instantaneously as possible, especially for the stuff that really should be nearly instantaneous on modern hardware. These days, that means plenty of ram and a fast storage subsystem: SSD is the best upgrade I've done in years. I wait less. A 2 hour render is still a 2 hour render, but when I start up a heavy application I only wait 3 seconds instead of 10, or even 20. It just makes everything less frustrating, even 1 and 2 second waits can be really annoying if they happen a lot.
Many things are much better than they used to be, but I still say "hurry up" to my system too often, especially using a GUI. Though, my 3-year-old built-from-parts "enthusiast" machine feels faster to me than many newer commodity machines with better specs. "Tuning" things on the software side can make a difference, which is something that "enthusiasts" do, and want to be *able* to do.
So long as there are systems that can be tuned, streamlined and knocked about for fun, enthusiasts will be happy. Though I'm still searching for the "holy grail" of a GUI that never stutters, stalls or hiccups. Mostly, if you want that, you still have to use a command line.
Though I guess, if we ever get such a "holy grail" I may cease to be an enthusiast, since computing perfection will be a commodity.
Let's face it. The uber duber turbine-sounded high end desktop doesn't get much of a use if you don't have some kind of time-management disorder or addiction. If you work or study you couldn't get much time on your precious anyway. If you work you get a console: Turn on and play and don't care of the price of games, you don't have much time anyway. If you run CFD simulations or something like it it's your employer problem to get you the tools you need. From my experience you just use another computer to do the heavy lifting while you make other tasks of your work on a now-retired-from-heavy-lifting workstation. If you like to program you can do it from any computer anyway. If you're a Open Source fan your favorite software would run on an 10 year old PC flawlessly. New generations prefer portability and use cellphones or tablets. They maybe would never see an open up desktop getting some upgrades like we did. The big companies also prefer it this way so they can sell more. From my case my next two upgrades will be a new impact and water resistant low end smartphone and a raspberry pi-like computer. The cellphone will be my calendar, mail-chat-google-internet machine and casual entertainment system (music, TV series, casual games). The raspberry-pi will be used as a server for a personal cloud and other home automation tasks. Maybe if I get a decent job I will think about going back to gaming. But I doubt if PC or console due to convenience. PC: very useful, but lifespan affected by use, dropping prices and new launches. Console: Long lifespan but not very useful and pricey games. As a final thought the next-gen consoles are as powerful as any mid-range desktop, not like in 2006 with the PS3 and Xbox 360, so even in the console niche there isn't any place for high end consumer computing. But in my current state of life a decent job is only a dream (I'm an MSc student and my country doesn't need my skills).
Really, I used to enjoy this website and watched it fall into the crap is it now after ZiffDavis acquired it.
Please never ever do this Slashdot. Oh..
Life was hell, then I discovered Linux...
The beauty of these materials is you can get different bandgaps making it possible to create a true multijunction solar cell bumping up the conversion efficiency to around 40%
http://phys.org/news/2013-02-multijunction-solar-cell-efficiency-goal.html
Multijunction solar cell could exceed 50% efficiency goalTo another, I can quite happily confirm that the enthusiast market is not dead quite the opposite it is thriving. The latest generation of games consoles has created a surge in interest from people interested in upgrading existing systems or purchasing new ones.
I build plenty of PC gaming machines and my build queue is full for the next 18 months. I've even had people interested in getting the best possible sound delivered from their machines for their HTPC setup. No, the enthusiast market is definitely alive and healthy but it is simply being overshadowed by market analysts who are only interested in mobile devices since that is where they perceive the growth factors to be however, once that market becomes saturated (which it is well on the way to doing) it will be up to traditional computing devices to save the market once again.
Such as the ones used in the wifi SDCards by Transcend and PQI SD cards.
Imagine a bunch of tiny cheap linux boxes to act as meshes, dead drops, micro servers, etc...and imagine how long they'd run on a battery, or even a battery with solar!
https://forum.openwrt.org/viewtopic.php?id=45820
http://www.keyasic.com/keyasic_sub.php?type=information&inid=24
http://hackaday.com/2013/09/19/advanced-transcend-wifi-sd-hacking-custom-kernels-x-and-firefox/
my digital audio workstation runs Logic Pro X, Pro Tools 11, and Cubase 6.5. no tablet or phone can replace the desktop, which has not only several hard disks and lots of RAM, but an operating system capable of running plugins from a variety of 3rd party sources. I'm in no position to junk this thing for whatever might happen to be "hot" in the next couple of years, because enjoy working with older versions of software which are no longer supported. IOS comes close to OSX and Windows 7 as far as being able to run basic audio and midi recording, but the musical instrument industry still hasn't completely cracked the nut on integrating hardware and software instruments, providing a comfortable recording, mixing, and mastering workflow. to my knowledge, enthusiasts like myself will still be needing enthusiast computer hardware for the foreseeable future.
Remember kids, if you're not paying for the service, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT THAT IS BEING SOLD.
Historically speaking, helping out doesn't help.
It sounds like you're a cunt and have no idea how to help people.
IME, helping out nearly always helps.
Real enthusiasts have always been the ones that wanted to really work with the hardware, whether the object was a car engine, vacuum-tube TV, or a computer. Fewer kids/adults developed the interest after the rise of "disposable" consumer culture, but from what I've been reading, that trend has slowly reversed as the weak economy started pushing more and more people to fix or improve whatever they can rather than blowing a bunch of cash on a replacement.
Personally, I've learned thus far that working with a soldering iron puts me into a great relaxed 'zen' state, and learning about PCBs & successful practice with the iron are both highly rewarding. If I succeed at fixing what I have on hand, I'll try to learn enough about electronics & programming to build kits, learn to modify them, and generally see how far I can go... As our economy continues to stagnate, more people/kids will find themselves at some point with a "broken" tech item that costs too much to replace at the drop of a hat, at least some will take the same route I have (particularly if they know someone else that already succeeded) and similarly become enthusiasts as well.
Now mostly at Usenet:comp.misc & SoylentNews.org (it's made of people!)
The field is becoming mature, and the point of assembling your own computer, and getting it to work is just not what it used to be.
Yes it is. The only difference is that now the prefabbed computers are a lot closer in price (frequently cheaper!) to what it would cost for you to build it yourself with equal components.
You still get to mix and match components that cannot be found in mainstream prefabbed computers, and in those cases you are still significantly better off money-wise building it yourself. As an example any sort of silent PC setup isnt mainstream, so you pay a significant premium having someone else build it for you.
"His name was James Damore."
Disqus is only there to make you look at ads, not add your $.02 to a forum discussion.
They aren't looking for $.02 obviously, it is censored to exclude anything remotely controversial to popular thought.
That leaves us with the purpose being ad revenue. It keeps you on whatever page for longer and multiple refreshes so they can show that you saw ads. They make money, you get shit for your time and contribution.
When I see a Disqus box, I know it's just a sucker trap.
*Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
interesting area requiring lots of processing power * computers w/ lots of processing power = profit!!!
breaking the equation down you find that any field requiring lots of processing power that is interesting these days is becoming rare. But what you could do is perform an Apple; 'Take something already ubiquitous, brand it, and make it social thereby cool. Then just ad scads of eyecandy to it and you now require tons of processing power GENIUS!!!. (as if the eyEPhone isn't already a supercomputer perfoming lots of GUI requests)' Or, sex. Or money.... Interestingly Bitcoin mining even if its an outdated notion would get attention if you could somehow turn it into a game. Or, perhaps visualize hashing? Man, if you could combine sex and coin mining you'll get people buying new PC's all day long.
You, sir, should be modded funny.
At this point, any semiconductor is fair game if it helps decrease feature size and power consumption (the main factor limiting performance nowadays). The substrate is likely to remain Si because of its low cost, large wafer sizes and low defect density.
But what does advanced semiconductor technology have to do with enthusiasts? I have not the slightest clue.
Can't we just use an SSD? I think a cooler hack would be to have programmable FPGAs directly attached to your computer, acting as fast custom hardware which you can reshape on the fly to be anything you want.
There is likely very little chance the general public will ever be trusted with Arsenic based semiconductors.
There are plenty of people that can assemble their own embedded systems using self fabricated PCBs utilizing SMT. The thing that is really holding it back is the fact that DRAM controllers just aren't available from Mouser, AVNET, etc as a discrete IC component. All of the x86 chips have that built in nowadays (northbridge on die). The closest you can get is getting an (ugh) FPGA that likewise has onboard DRAM controller, but you have to purchase IP blocks most of the time (Xilinx). The issue is the same with SATA controller ICs. They just aren't available from suppliers that market to the engineering (hobbiest, experimenter, developer, university, etc) market. You have to be an OEM, bullshit around and broker a huge "deal" for hundreds of thousands of chips.
For me, these two things are a serious setback. I am able to fabricate six layer boards in my small shop, and can do just about any type of SMT IC (save ultra high desnity stuff). My desktop can take standard DRAM DIMMS; I have 16GB in there now. Likewise, I has a 120 GB flash SATA drive. You can't do this with custom boards right now because of the lack of the controller chips for custom designs. I'd seriously drop some money on DRAM controllers, the DRAM itself, as well as dozens of flash drives if the chips were just available. They'reNOT