Slashdot Mirror
Oil Traders Misread Tweet, Oil Prices Spike
cartechboy writes "Ahh Twitter. Sometimes when you combine lightning fast information distribution and humans, minor (or not-so-minor) chaos can ensue. Yesterday, the Israeli military tweeted a commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war, which took place in 1973. But the tweet referenced the bombing of Syrian airports by Soviets, and oil traders, already an antsy group, assumed the tweet referred to an attack occurring that very moment. As you can imagine, this had some impact. Within an hour, the global price of oil jumped more than $1, from $110.40 to $111.50 as trading volumes soared. In the end, the traders missed a few things that would identify the tweet as historical vs imminent: Yom Kippur was weeks ago, the Soviet Union is no more, and most important, #checkthehashtag."
Anyone getting their investment advice from Twitter deserves what they get.
"I just wish I could get in on more of these mis-pricings on time,"
That would make you a twitchy day-trader.
I do the "dollar cost average" thing, putting some money in every paycheck. I specifically don't read my account statements except once a year or so for this reason. The stock market always goes up in the long term. Even if it drops for a year it'll be fine. I won't be taking money out until I retire, and that won't be for at least another 25 years... it's best to not pay attention, in my opinion.
lightning: electrical discharges in the atmosphere.
lightening: what happens just before dawn.
Sacred cows make the best burgers.
Within an hour, it had jumped more than $1, from $110.40 to $111.50.
it jumped 1%. that's hardly significant. in fact, that's just pretty regular. this is a stupid article. who the hell approves this crap?
I think you're confusing the following:
1. Investors - which is most of everything
2. Traders - people and their agents who trade
3. Robot programs which trade based on twitter and facebook and newsfeed key words
4. Derivatives - which is a fancy word for Legalized Gambling
While they can overlap, they are not the exact same groups. Most investors know that active management is more risky and tends to be less profitable to actual investors than index trading, precisely for that reason.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
At least we can kick politicians out. We have no control over the fucktards in the stock market, and they probably have more influence over our economic wellbeing. What kind of sane economic system would let sociopaths and simpering morons even near the levers of economic power?
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
I believe the actual term for someone who uses Twitter rumors for stock trading is "twit".
The stock market always goes up in the long term.
Oh yes.
Even if it drops for a year it'll be fine. I won't be taking money out until I retire, and that won't be for at least another 25 years... it's best to not pay attention, in my opinion.
That's a little simplistic. I know many folks who were just about wiped out, right around the time they retired. Yes, the market always goes up. And that is an awesome investment strategy if you are going to live for 200 years. For us mere mortals, where it's at when we retire - or move it into less volatile investments is much more important.
If you plan on moving your investments into something more conservative at some point, where is the market going to be at that point? I know one fellow who hung on a bit too long, and was bit hard twice.
I lucked out and went conservative pretty early on - way too early for most. I was an imbecile for about a decade. Sad to say, my smart colleagues who knew the market only went up in the long run are now planning on working into their 70's. Hopefully they will be allowed to do that. Me, I retired on my terms at 56.
Invest well, save well, live well, but well below what the economic forces tell you to.(real estate people, investment people, banking people) Pay attention to your stocks. Constant monitoring is only a problem if you get greedy, and too many people cannot not be greedy. The vampires and leeches feed on that greed, and do a slam bang job of extracting your wealth.
The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
Not just putting words in mouths but also completely reversing stuff. The slashdot summary said:
when the actual tweet said:
Which is a completely different thing. There I was thinking "I never knew the Soviets bombed anything in that war" and "why the hell would they be bombing the Syrians?".
I'm not sure where this came from. Speaking as an oil trader, the spike was entirely the result of Boehner's speech offering a temporary debt increase. I do have several twitter feeds open to guage news sentiment, but the IDF's isnt one of them. Did the Israelis find a ton of oil i was otherwise unaware of?
... I'm still shocked when anybody does anything based on something that happens on Twitter.
Dow, adjusted for inflation.
If you'll look at the big chart at the link, you'll notice that the people who bought in at the height of the stock market in the 1920's didn't make their money back until 1960. And then actually went back into the red during the most recent crash.
You can argue if the DJIA is an accurate representation of market as a whole, or of the specific stocks in your portfolio. But you can't argue that even without factoring the capital gains tax, you're probably going to lose. With the capital gains tax, you can't win.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."