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Black Death Predated 'Small World' Effect, Say Network Theorists
KentuckyFC writes "Epidemiologists know that modern diseases can spread almost simultaneously in different parts of the planet because an individual who becomes infected in Hong Kong, for example, can infect friends in New York the following day. This is known as the small world effect. It is the same property that allows any individual to link to another individual anywhere in the world in just a few steps. But in the 14th century, the Black Death spread in a very different way, moving slowly across Europe at a rate of about 2 kilometers a day. Now network theorists have simulated this spread and say it is only possible if the number of long distances travelers in those days was vanishingly small. In other words, people in medieval society were linked almost exclusively to others nearby and so did not form a small world network. That raises an interesting question. If society in 14th century Europe was not a small world but today's society is, when did the change occur? The researchers say the finger of blame points to the invention of railways and steamships which allowed large numbers of people, and the diseases they carried, to travel long distances for the first time."
Rats. Crusades. Trade.
They had Silk in freaking Budapesht, Kiev, Oslo, Bruges, Orleans, Stuttgart and Florence. How isolated do you think the world was?
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
The Bubonic plague was carried by the rats. It can only be transmitted human to human in it's final stages and the fleas can't survive long on human body. Two km a day seems about right for rats.
So it's true that I could catch some disease if I go out then?
Horses are expensive to maintain, and have a rough daily limit of about 30 miles. In comparison, a human walking at 3 mph can go the same distance in only 10 hours. The difference, of course, is that horses can carry more and get there faster, before taking more time to rest.
For the peasants who made up the majority of the population during the 14th century, a horse was a good tool for farmers or messengers, but regular travel would best be done on foot with a light pack and a steady pace.
You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
How fast do you think this silk moved across Europe?
There are other ways that the plague could spread. Yes, someone infected with the plague would die before reaching their destination. However, ships also carried cargo, which could be contaminated. Standard procedure was to quarantine ships and their cargo but, understandably, there could be pressures to rush things because people didn't like their precious fabrics to be kept on an isolated island for forty days, especially since they could easily get damaged in the process.
This is how the Great Plague of Marseilles began: a ship laden with cargo belonging to important people was not quarantined according to procedure. Unfortunately, it had come from the Middle East where the plague was rampant and it starting spreading through the city.
The "Arab" traders were really a remarkable multi-ethnic amalgamation of Levantine and peninsular Arabs, Africans from the horn, Persians from the gulf, and Indians from the Arabian sea - Malabar Coast and Gujurat. There were also Genoans, Turks and Georgians from the Caucasus - with plenty of overlap by Chinese through the time of Kublai, under the Mongols.
This was the world of Sinbad, and the true inheritor of the great maritime civilizations in the Mediterranean - Tyre, Mycenae and Athens.
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
How fast do you think this silk moved across Europe?
I'm not sure but I've heard they already used bitcoins back then to pay for it.
Ezekiel 23:20
Horses are expensive to maintain, and have a rough daily limit of about 30 miles. In comparison, a human walking at 3 mph can go the same distance in only 10 hours.
That's not comparable. The horse could do that forever (for example, see this US cavalry manual which stipulates cavalry can go 35 miles a day, six days a week indefinitely - page 152) while the person would not be able to maintain that sort of pace for more than a few hours to a day unless they were in really good shape.
In comparison, typical indefinite marching rates for an army were about 10 miles a day (both for roman legionaires and US soldiers).
I think what we tend to forget is how much of a chore that travel was to people that were walking or traveling by wagon. My paternal grandmother grew up in a what was one of the last frontier areas in the central part of the United States, in the late 1890's the 50 mile wide strip of land in western Louisiana that was disputed territory with Spain prior to the Texas Independence in the 1830's , and remained virtually uninhabited until timber rush of the 1880's. The nearest city of any size was the river / ocean port city of Lake Charles 50 miles away by road or 75 miles indirectly by rail 10 miles away (post 1905). During this time the town she lived in was a booming timber mill town with a couple of thousand people, her father owned one of the two general stores in the town, and would travel to Lake Charles once every 4-6 weeks for supplies., this was usually done by wagon, taking 2 or 3 wagons which his children would help drive. This was a 2 day trip, the first day was spent traveling with the empty wagons to a point where there was a ferry that crossed into Lake Charles on the west bank of the Calcasieu river near the present day town of Moss Bluff, where they would camp out over night in the wagons. Early the following morning her father would take the wagons into to Lake Charles (which had a population of 7,000- 12,000 people at this time) to buy goods, leaving the kids at camp to fix food for the day's travel, and prepare the wagons., they would then set off traveling home with their loaded wagons by mid morning, arriving back home late in the evening. Needless to say such long distance travels were not common for many of the children of the community, and likely few of the adults as well, and this was around the turn of the 20's century, well into the age of steam engines, and around the birth of the automobile..
Horses are expensive to maintain, and have a rough daily limit of about 30 miles. In comparison, a human walking at 3 mph can go the same distance in only 10 hours.
That's not comparable. The horse could do that forever (for example, see this US cavalry manual which stipulates cavalry can go 35 miles a day, six days a week indefinitely - page 152) while the person would not be able to maintain that sort of pace for more than a few hours to a day unless they were in really good shape.
In comparison, typical indefinite marching rates for an army were about 10 miles a day (both for roman legionaires and US soldiers).
It's very comparable. A human can keep up a 3mph walk forever as well. A 3mph pace is not hard for a human at all and without
a pack 30 miles a day would not be an issue for a human. 35 miles per day, six days a week indefinitely would not be a problem for
the average person either. I don't think a march with camp setup, etc... is comparable to what the original poster was talking about.
I think you underestimate what a human is capable of. When I was in college we went on a hike to the bottom of the grand canyon
for a week. None of us were in great shape, did any training, or probably near as fit as a peasant who worked all day in the field
every day yet we averaged about 20-25 miles a day for a week with heavy packs on rough terrain and making camp each night.
We obviously could have done alot more with a light pack. And again, we were not in shape, didn't train, and most had never even
been backpacking before. For endurance running a human is every bit as good as a single horse. The pony express used multiple
horses because horses are faster over short distances but over multiple days a human is actually faster. A good runner can do alot
more than 35 miles per day. This guy averaged over 50 miles a day for 40 days:
http://www.outsideonline.com/blog/outdoor-adventure/the-human-express-interview-with-karl-meltzer.html
Here is one of many articles that states that humans can outrun every animal on the planet:
http://discovermagazine.com/2006/may/tramps-like-us
Have you got any good readings you can recommend on the subject =)?
Registration and Purchase required? PDFs from the New Cambridge History of Islam. There's an amazing maritime section here:
http://universitypublishingonline.org/cambridge/histories/ebook.jsf?bid=CBO9781139056137
Blow your mind, with the journal of the travels of 14th Century adventurer, Ibn Batutta. He makes Marco Polo look like a homebody.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Battuta
1929 abridged translation of Ibn Batutta's journals:
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=zKqn_CWTxYEC
More books? Warwick Ball is an accessible archaeologist and historian, who effectively destroys the case for "Clash of Civilizations", and the entire dubious taxonomy of "east and west".
http://www.amazon.com/Rome-East-Transformation-Warwick-Ball/dp/0415243572/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1382201303&sr=1-1
http://www.amazon.com/Out-Arabia-Phoenicians-Discovery-Europe/dp/1566568013/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1382201303&sr=1-5
http://www.amazon.com/Towards-One-World-Ancient-Persia/dp/1566568226/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1382201303&sr=1-3
Nice, "pro-Nabatean" writeup on the late-antique origin of Arab maritime trade, after the breakup of Alexandrian east. You will have to go farther back, to the Phoenicians of Tyre and Carthage, 'tho! This author begins with Nabatean emergence. There are many links on this site... Quite fascinating.
http://nabataea.net/who1.html
Oman and maritime history. Nice to overlay this with the Nabateans. These things met and mingled - especially out in the Indian ocean, away from home:
http://www.maritime.om/Oman-Maritime-History
The sections on Ancient Indian and Chinese maritime development is slim, but worthwhile:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_maritime_history#Indian_subcontinent
An Indo-centric, but factual and entertaining page:
http://www.aseanindia.com/navy/maritime-history
Summary of "silk-routes":
http://www.silkroutes.net/SilkSpiceIncenseRoutes.htm
Genoa in the Crimea:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genoese_colonies
Technology of early Islamic ship-building - mostly focused on Mediterranean, not Indo-Persian
http://www.academia.edu/1596791/Early_Islamic_Maritime_Technology
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."