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As IPO Nears, Do Twitter's Active User Claims Add Up?
netbuzz writes "With Twitter's IPO looming, an independent developer who is intimately familiar with the makeup and behavior of the site's users says his analysis of 1 million random accounts does not support the company's claims of 215 million active monthly users and 100 million active daily users. In fact, Si Dawson, who until March ran Twit Cleaner, a popular app used to weed deadwood and spammers from Twitter accounts, puts those numbers at 112 million and 48 million, respectively, or about half of what Twitter claims."
Twitter doesn't make any money and it's not clear how they would. But again, none of that matters. It's buzz it's bubble it's sizzle it's cool. Money will 'develop' on it's own. And if not - Microsoft will buy them and kill it.
Users? Profits? Bah!
As everybody knows the important question to ask about tech companies is... how much are stupid investors willing to pay for it...?
I don't respond to AC's.
I imagine the SEC would care if they are falsifying data.
No, with a few very narrow exceptions. Generally you have to wait 30 days after.
I believe they have convertible bonds you could short but there would be additional technical issues and risks.
Twitter prohibits spam filters. You're not allowed to write a Twitter client with a spam filter. If you do, Twitter will invalidate your OAuth code. So people actually see Twitter spam. That makes Twitter a spam magnet.
Of course they have huge numbers of fake users. Want to create some fake Twitter accounts? Just get Twitter Account Creator Bot: "... automatically creates thousands of accounts per day without any human intervention ... " Now only $225. Also available: Twitter Follower Bot ("can follow thousands of profiles using keywords"), "Twitter IDs Grabber Bot", and "Twitter Tweets Replier Bot".
If you don't want to do it yourself, you can just buy Twitter accounts in bulk. 20,000 Twitter accounts for $400. That seems to be the going rate; BuyAccs.com also quotes $400 for 20,000 accounts (with avatar!). Google+ and Facebook accounts cost about 5x as much from the same suppliers. When you see low, low pricing for bulk social network accounts, you can be sure the service isn't trying very hard to stop spammers.
There's no problem finding social network spamming services. They advertise openly. Just search Google for "bulk twitter accounts". You don't have to go on Black Hat World, build up a reputation, and get into the closed forums. You don't have to get "bulletproof servers" in some third world country. The social spammers aren't hiding.
(Ad: we could stop this by using SiteTruth to find spam links in tweets. I prototyped a Twitter client with spam filtering and tested it. But Twitter doesn't allow that. "Sponsored tweets" have to get through, you know.)
I read stuff at twitter almost everyday and I don't even have a personal account.
Twitter is more of a broadcast medium than a social network anyway. Most of the most popular accounts are run by celebrities or "stars" in their fields. It seems likely that the number of active users will shrink while those that are active will become more relevant and drive more traffic to the inevitable ads that they will eventually have to add to the site once investors start to ask for profits.
I imagine the SEC would care if they are falsifying data.
You have a remarkable imagination then. My imagination has a mathematician standing in a room in the SEC's Washington headquarters with an analysis that proves Twitters claims violate the very Laws of Thermodynamics, and nobody is interested. The meeting ends and they resume browsing porn back in their offices.
Of course, since my scenario is based on mere history, instead of your immense imaginative powers, I'll defer to you and take it as a given that the SEC has this well in hand.
Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
I use Twitter to store things I want to remember but don't mind losing. When I see a sponsored twit, I comment inappropriately with their hashtags then delete the sponsored twit.
I don't think I'm using it right. Also, my followers are definitely not using it right. They may have serious mental issues.
I dont think you can consider people who see buses go past them in the street as passengers!
Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII