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Electric Cars: Drivers Love 'Em, So Why Are Sales Still Low?
cartechboy writes "The electric car challenge is what insiders call "getting butts in seats" — and a lot of butts today still belong to humans who are not yet buying electric cars. The big question is: Why? Surveys show drivers are interested in electric cars--and that they love them once they drive them. EVs also cost less to maintain (though more to buy in the first place) and many experts say they're simply nicer to drive. So what's the problem? Disinterested dealers, uneven distribution, limited supplies, and media bias are some potential challenges. Or maybe it's just lousy marketing--casting electric cars as a moral imperative or a duty, like medicine you have to take."
...when I can buy a used one for $5,000 and expect it to last me five to ten years without major maintenance.
It's as simple as that.
I live in an apartment building. I've discussed the matter with the building management but we haven't come up with an answer. While new buildings must have electrical hookups for electric cars, there is no incentive to retrofit old buildings.
...laura
Let me know when a used one is in my working-class budget range, and we'll talk.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
Seems obvious to me. I, like many others, live in an apartment. My parking spot doesn't have an electrical outlet anywhere nearby, and neither does my office parking lot.
One Word: Price.
They look nifty, but for the price, you can have an extra nifty gas burning car - why spend $30K on an econobox when you can get a "real $30K car" instead?
A cheap electric car that performs well will sell like crazy.
Define "cheap". I bought my Nissan LEAF because, compared to every other new hybrid or ICE-only vehicle I looked at, it was the cheapest option.
Now, I was looking to buy new, not used, which means I was looking at a higher price point than a lot of people, and I am willing (and able) to spend a little more money up front in order to save it over the longer term. Within those parameters, though, and making some assumptions about the price of fuel (which, I have to admit, are pretty far off base right now; I didn't anticipate such a dramatic drop), the three EVs I looked at were all significantly cheaper than any of the other options over an eight-year time horizon -- and that was without even considering the lower maintenance costs, didn't factor in the tax credits and included some pretty pessimistic assumptions about EV resale value.
With the tax credits available, the break-even point against the next-best vehicle (the Honda Insight) as just a bit over two years. And the price of the LEAF has dropped significantly since I did the analysis.
Assuming a LEAF or an i-MiEV or similar fits your driving needs, they are very cost-effective options. And my LEAF is a lot of fun to drive; it performs quite well.
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Yep, you got it. When I run the math, it just is not in my favor yet.
I drive a truck now, and have been looking to get a second car to commute with to keep the miles off the truck, as I like having a truck but never want to have to buy another one. When I run the math on a Leaf, or Focus EV the break even point is way out there. $35k ballpark vs. ~15k for gasoline. At $4/gallon that is 5000 gallons of gas for a break even point of roughly 200k miles. Given my commuting use of about 5k miles per year I am looking at a 40 year break even compared to a 40 mpg econobox. I'll still be racking up about 5k miles per year on long trips in my truck. So for me, despite the desire, the math stinks.
I have seen this trend on a lot of the for sale Leaf's, commuting modest distances doesn't rack up many miles. Lots of folks end up selling simply because they change jobs and end up with a long commute, but the range isn't adequate. Sort of a catch 22.
I've been trying to price out electric car ROIs as well and I'm getting basically the opposite outcome. They all seem to be ~$7500 more after the tax credit than the comparable gas powered car (e.g. leaf vs versa S plus) and that pays for quite a lot of gasoline. I calculate ~65k miles worth at 35mpg and $4/gal and that doesn't include the electric power costs.
Using this calculator I keep coming up with a break even point of about 8 years.
Cost of New Gas Car: $13970
Fuel Efficency of Gas Car: 35mpg
Cost of Gas: $4/gal
Cost of Electric Car: $21300
Cost of Electricity: $0.06/kWhr
kWh/100 miles: 34
Annual Driving Distance: 10000mi
Knowledge Brings Fear
For most people, it isn't just a few times a year. The national average commute to work is about 16 miles, or a 32-mile round trip. The worst case range on a Nissan leaf is only 47 miles. So if you have to make an extra stop across town to drop your kid off at school or pick up groceries, then even a driver with an average commute under worst-case conditions might not make it home without a charge. So for about half of all drivers (assuming the median is probably near the mean), electric cars aren't practical or are just barely practical when brand new.
Oh, but it gets worse. The older the battery gets, the less capacity it has. By the time a car is ten years old, I would expect it to have about half as much range as it did when it was new. Thus, the range of a 10-year-old EV is likely to be inadequate for the overwhelming majority of drivers in their day-to-day activities.
The magic number is 200 miles for the worst-case range. This ensures that when the vehicle is a few years old, its range will likely still be enough to handle the majority of owners' commutes. This translates to about a 300 mile average range. In other words, the batteries on existing EVs are undersized by more than a factor of 4 from what I would consider to be a usable vehicle. They're simply nowhere close to being ready for prime time.
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Lets compare..
The Chevrolet and Nissan cars, straight from their sites. These are all "starting from..." prices. We could compare options all day. I've excluded the high end sports cars (Corvette and GT-R respectively)
Really, a $1,190 difference between a Leaf and a 370Z? $19.83/mo difference with 60 month financing? A buyer would switch up the the 370Z if they want performance, or they'll happily save $3,570 by going down to the Altima Coupe.
The same applies to Chevy, except stepping down to a gas car saves $7,325. Stepping up is a bit more expensive.
The EVs are a great idea. They aren't priced to sell to most consumers. They're priced to sell to people who want to brag they have an EV, much like pricing on high end sports cars.
I *want* an EV. If I had to buy a new car today, I wouldn't buy one. Besides the above average costs, I see longevity being a problem. The car I have now is over 10 years old. I have serious doubts in the longevity of the current EVs, and part replacement costs. As I understand it, the Volt battery pack is $8,000. Nissan Leafs batteries cost $15,000. Nissan has a payment plan deal, which still ends up costing you thousands.
There are other pesky issues, like the cost of recharging.
Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
You forgot cold weather.
I own a Miev, and cold weather (Upstate NY) barely affects my range. The effect on the batteries is basically nil. The only real difference is the need to use the heater, which does affect range a bit. (Maybe takes 5% off the range for any given trip).
The real problem is complete lack of quality marketing. Even the local Mitsubishi dealership complains that corporate does basically no advertising, and what little they do is centered around the "save the planet" thing. This is stupid. You're not going to get people to cough up an extra 10 - 15k in one lump sum in support of the environment. Their marketing should never even address environmental issues. The most effective marketing they could do would be a total cost of ownership comparison between themselves and a corolla, or civic. You might throw in a little bit about safety ratings, but not a peep about the environment.
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