Slashdot Mirror


Life Could Have Evolved 15 Million Years After the Big Bang, Says Cosmologist

KentuckyFC writes "Goldilocks zones are regions around stars that are 'just right' for liquid water and for the chemistry of life as we know it. Now one cosmologist points out that the universe must have been through a Goldilocks epoch, a period in which warm, watery conditions could have existed on almost any planet in the entire cosmos. The key phenomenon here is the cosmic background radiation, the afterglow of the Big Bang which was blazing hot when it first formed. But as the universe expanded, the wavelength of this radiation increased, lowering its energy. Today, it is an icy 3 Kelvin. But somewhere along the way, it must have been between 273 and 300 Kelvin, just right to keep water in liquid form. According to the new calculations, this Goldilocks epoch would have occurred when the universe was about 15 million years old and would have lasted for several million years. And since the first stars had a lifespan of only 3 million years or so, that allows plenty of time for the heavy elements to have formed which are necessary for planet formation and the chemistry of life. Indeed, if live did evolve a this time, it would have predated life on Earth by about 10 billion years."

312 comments

  1. Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I wonder if that was long enough to produce lush gardens with apple trees.

    1. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not sure about the genesis reference, but it seems it was enough time for the emergence of DNA. Panspermia gets one more piece in support.

    2. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by MightyMartian · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And how exactly does panspermia get a lift here? It's not as if catching a lift in interstellar space would have been any easier at that stage than now. I suspect with the level of energetic activity from quasars and the like, it would have been even less likely.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    3. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by tnk1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I always wondered what the point was with considering panspermia. If life could have appeared anywhere in order to make it to Earth, it could have just as easily originated on Earth to begin with. There's nothing miraculous about Earth, but there is nothing sub-standard about it either.

      It would be interesting to know if terrestrial life started elsewhere, but what problems does that hypothesis solve? The only one I can think of is why all almost all Star Trek aliens look like humans with different foreheads.

    4. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by nut · · Score: 2

      I'm assuming the GP's argument is that the higher than previously expected possibility of life-bearing planets early in the life of the universe increases the possibility of panspermia, all other things being equal.

      The probability of panspermia is product of (at least) two other possibilities:
      1.) Life exists somewhere
      2.) Life is carried though space from one planet to another by some means.

      Regardless of the probability of the latter, (which may be infinitesimal in any case) increasing the probability of the former at any point in time increases the overall probability of panspermia.

      --
      Never trust a man in a blue trench coat, Never drive a car when you're dead
    5. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by SJHillman · · Score: 1

      Panspermia gets support because the longer life has been around, the greater the chance it could have happened.

    6. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by SJHillman · · Score: 2

      Star Trek's proliferation of humanoids was explained by a sort of intelligent panspermia.
      See http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/The_Chase_(episode)

      Panspermia has a few big implications. If it's true, then we can't be 100% sure Earth ever had conditions that could create life (rather than just allowing the proliferation of existing life). It also has huge implications towards finding life elsewhere, such as on Mars, and maybe even future terraforming projects on distant worlds. The great thing about science is that we can find crazy ways to make the most ridiculous facts useful in developing new techniques or technologies, or towards creating models that help advance our knowledge in other areas.

    7. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by femtobyte · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The problem that panspermia theories are supposed to "solve" is the ease or difficulty of "bootstrapping" life --- how likely is it to get self-replicating, self-organizing complex systems out of simpler chemical precursors. In the case that this is "really really unlikely," then panspermia allows the earliest forms of life to occur only in a few rare cases, but then spread to populate more of the universe. On the other hand, this is unnecessary if the initial chances of life formation are reasonable (given a few billion years and a planet-sized cauldron of random chemical soup). So far, scientists in the lab have been able to generate a lot of life precursors (amino acids, etc.) under "early Earth" conditions, but not demonstrate the "leap" to self-replicating systems; however, this may not prove too much, since scientists haven't had a billion years and a planet-sized petri dish array to try everything out.

    8. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by symbolset · · Score: 5, Funny

      The roads were a lot shorter back then.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    9. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by symbolset · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Earth is pretty new as these things go. An 8 billion year head start is an awful lot.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    10. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by dreamchaser · · Score: 2

      I wonder if that was long enough to produce lush gardens with apple trees.

      That's silly. Everyone knows that happened only 6,000 years ago!

    11. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I always wondered what the point was with considering panspermia. If life could have appeared anywhere in order to make it to Earth, it could have just as easily originated on Earth to begin with. There's nothing miraculous about Earth, but there is nothing sub-standard about it either.

      It would be interesting to know if terrestrial life started elsewhere, but what problems does that hypothesis solve? The only one I can think of is why all almost all Star Trek aliens look like humans with different foreheads.

      Do you wonder if bacteria originate from inside your own body or from somewhere else and found their way to yours later?

      Probably not, but if you didn't know any better and both were possibilities, think about the different implications. The starting conditions are likely VERY different, and your body is a hostile environment for up-and-coming organisms to develop.

    12. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Ol+Biscuitbarrel · · Score: 2

      How could humanoids remain a dominant configuration through billions of years of evolution as depicted in TNG? Seems like various forms would have plenty of time to develop multiple eyeballs etc. Humans are unique among primates in our upright stance, as opposed to the quadrupedal gait found in other primates. Was that supposed to have been baked into the cake in the TNG universe too, or was it considered an inevitable part of developing sapience?

      I always thought Ursula LeGuin's Hainish Universe was a more sensible/plausible premise, where one species seeds itself throughout the local area of the galaxy in various ways in the past few million years - combining its DNA with that of local primates on Earth, for instance, thus humanity's aggressive streak as compared with other intelligent species.

    13. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by EdIII · · Score: 4, Funny

      That's a good point. It would have been the easiest time period to traverse the distances between the stars, and increases the chances that two different species would be interacting. Anytime you do that, it becomes possible for a Kirk-like explorer to go out an tap that which has not been tapped. This pleases me.

      Thanks.

    14. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by mark-t · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I personally see the whole panspermia with regards to the origin of life concept as not significantly different from the notion of intelligent design with respect to how we came to be.... they both just push the actual problem they claimt to solve back one level and do not actually offer any additional predictive power that genuinely scientific theories enjoy.

    15. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by EdIII · · Score: 1

      The only one I can think of is why all almost all Star Trek aliens look like humans with different foreheads.

      It kinda had to be that way in order for Kirk to be able to get it up....

    16. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by femtobyte · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If there is an important distinction, it's that panspermia pushes the problem back one level to "known science" --- it provides an "amplification" mechanism for rare events in plain old organic chemistry, based on ordinary physics principles; while "intelligent design" introduces a whole new layer of metaphysical complication entirely outside of scientific knowledge.

      I'm not personally a proponent of panspermia theories, based on the "space is frickin' big" principle. Interplanetary transfer within the solar system is one thing --- we know chunks of rock can travel between planets (and, ultimately, this can be tested: if we don't find clear evidence for Earthlike life at some earlier stage in Mars' development, then interplanetary panspermia isn't happening much). Interstellar panspermia is correspondingly far, far less likely. Given that we have all the "raw ingredients" available here, it seems that requiring panspermia to fill in the gap between "pools of organic sludge brewing for a billion years" and "life happens" is premature.

    17. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by onyxruby · · Score: 3, Informative

      Panspermia is the concept of taking one in a trillion odds of a shot hitting the target and firing that shot a trillion times. I'm not particularly advocating for it, but it has at least some basis in plausibility.

      We know that rocks from others planets can and do get shot out by meteor impacts on a routine basis as some have landed on Earth. We know that these impacts shoot out large quantities of rocks at a time into space at random directions. We also know that gravitational currents can help objects naturally move between planets.

      We also know that bacteria can survive being left in outer space for years at a time. We know that the interior of a meteorite does not particularly heat up upon re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. We know that bacteria are found inside of rocks inside the Earth when we look for them.

      Now I'm not going to get into life (bacteria etc) evolving and everything that goes with it. I'm certainly not saying that Panspermia has any evidence of having ever occurred. I'm simply saying that the idea of Panspermia has at least some plausibility as a delivery mechanism for bacteria like life that had already evolved on it's own.

    18. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by VanGarrett · · Score: 1

      As I recall, the technique used in TNG was a matter of introducing humanoid genes into the genome of existing lifeforms on the seeded worlds, not entirely unlike the latter scenario you describe.

    19. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      But they were very hilly (both ways) and covered in snow.

    20. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by camperdave · · Score: 1

      Panspermia gets support because the longer life has been around, the greater the chance it could have happened.

      I've been around a long, long, time but I don't see the odds of me getting lucky getting any better.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    21. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by camperdave · · Score: 4, Informative

      What was "baked into the cake" was more than just a DNA pattern. It was an actual program. As such, guided evolution to favour species like the seeders. In other words, evolution wasn't random. It was directed.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    22. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by mark-t · · Score: 0

      I see them as almost identical

      Panspermia leaves the question open of where the life that supposedly seeded other worlds originated.

      ID leaves open the question of where the intelligence that supposedly designed things came from.

    23. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by tragedy · · Score: 1

      I'm not personally a proponent of panspermia theories, based on the "space is frickin' big" principle.

      Well, yes, but the whole point of this article is that, once upon a time, space was tiny compared to what it's like now, but still had just as much actual matter in it, with a staggeringly larger part of that existing in conditions that could foster the origin of life.

    24. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by femtobyte · · Score: 1

      Indeed, the higher density of the early universe may shift the balance of odds during that brief 1M year window. However, whatever life that may have existed then has little applicability to the genesis of life on Earth roughly ten billion years later (after that early hot universe life had been frozen over, then autoclaved by massive supernovas long before our own sun was formed). So, panspermia as a model for the distribution of life through the present universe still faces the same difficulties with interstellar distance scale.

    25. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by jd2112 · · Score: 5, Funny

      How could humanoids remain a dominant configuration through billions of years of evolution as depicted in TNG? Seems like various forms would have plenty of time to develop multiple eyeballs etc. Humans are unique among primates in our upright stance, as opposed to the quadrupedal gait found in other primates. Was that supposed to have been baked into the cake in the TNG universe too, or was it considered an inevitable part of developing sapience?

      I always thought Ursula LeGuin's Hainish Universe was a more sensible/plausible premise, where one species seeds itself throughout the local area of the galaxy in various ways in the past few million years - combining its DNA with that of local primates on Earth, for instance, thus humanity's aggressive streak as compared with other intelligent species.

      If I remember correctly, the predominance of humanoid species in Star Trek was due to the low number of non-humanoid actors in the Screen Actors Guild.

      --
      Any insufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology.
    26. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by gl4ss · · Score: 1

      how the fuck does it "seem" so?

      some things don't work like that at all. you can't make a baby in 1 month by having 9 women...

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    27. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by JWSmythe · · Score: 1

      Well on Earth, it took 3 million years for life to go from very simple single cell organisms to primitive animals.

      Their hypothesis says that rather than the occasional rock like Earth, the environment may have been favorable on quite a few planets. Well, "quite a few" being "just about infinite" in our concept of numbers.

      Meteorites bombard planets. We know that. We believe planetary collisions happen. I don't think we've observed that yet. So pieces of planets are ejected on a fairly regular basis. Earth seems to do a pretty good job of keeping our chunks attached ... for now.

      If the idea was not that life evolved relatively close to our planet's life timeline, and with a virtually infinite of source planets in relatively close proximity to each other, it would be more feasible to consider that panspermia could be real.

      It will be quite a while before we can even begin to test for something like that. Well, unless someone drops by with a starship and 2 billion years of intergalactic research. Or more likely, someone does build an Einstein-Rosen bridge. I'm sure if we are the first to do it, it will be militarized, to be the way to win any war, anywhere. Who needs nukes, when we can just open a bridge from an enemy stronghold to the photosphere of any convenient star for a few seconds. Hmmm, considering that, maybe someone has made it, and realized the potential for harm.

      --
      Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
    28. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by similar_name · · Score: 1

      I've never personally been a fan of panspermia, but I think that if life could start at this time, it would help in several ways. Things were closer. If the Universe was in the Goldilocks zone, life might form on a huge number of objects. How many objects in the Oort Cloud might have life if the Universe were on average the right temperature. Life would would be seeded much more densely. Instead of life starting in one place and spreading out, it starts everywhere and just keeps reseeding. If it happened 15 billion years ago there's a lot more time to move around. On the downside, a planet like Earth might be too hot in such a Universe.

      Personally, I think a day/night cycle is needed for life to get started. I think it helps similar to how a PCR machine works. Each day as the Earth heated up, some molecules broke apart. At night they came together. After a while, the molecules grow sides and mirror each other. Molecules whose chemical traits allow their mirror images to pick up more chemicals in the environment began to outnumber those that didn't. Molecules that impacted their environment in such a way that they retained their traits continued the traits. At some point. we call the complex chemical reactions between those molecules life.

    29. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Darby · · Score: 1

      Waist high snow *at least*.

    30. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Personally, I think a day/night cycle is needed for life to get started

      The convection currents around deep sea volcanic "vents" do the same job. Panspermia and abiogenesis are not mutually exclusive, despite the "either or" argument manufactured by the mass media.

      I think panspermia is a long shot, but given the length of time and the size of the universe it's almost certainly happened somewhere at sometime. Volcanos could also be a mechanism for single celled life to leave a planet. It's said that rocks as large as a houses were blasted into obit by Krakatoa and some types of lichen have survived on the outside of the ISS for more than a year. The landing on such an interplanetary flight would be very difficult to survive since the rock is likely to vaporise on impact. Even if it survived and landed on a habitable planet, the locally evolved life forms would more than likely out-compete it by simply eating it.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    31. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by swillden · · Score: 3, Funny

      If I remember correctly, the predominance of humanoid species in Star Trek was due to the low number of non-humanoid actors in the Screen Actors Guild.

      Damned unions.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    32. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it becomes possible for a Kirk-like explorer to go out an tap that which has not been tapped.

      This pleases me

      And presumably, also the Kirk-like explorer...

    33. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm not personally a proponent of panspermia theories, based on the "space is frickin' big" principle.

      A fair principle. But with an obvious counterpart: "time is frickin' long".

    34. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Amen! I'm a Christian and ardent "evolutionist" and I have to put up with listening to ID all the time. It is never presented as a complete scientific framework, rather I'll be discussing some biological feature and the word "design" will pop up in the conversation, getting louder and more frequent until I give in. At that point, I explain that what we call "science" is more properly called "natural science" and seeks to provide natural explanations for our observations. ID is a supernatural explanation so it falls outside the realm of natural science. It's also intellectually lazy; anything that they can't comprehend is simply explained away with hands thrown in the air and "well, God did it". Thank God actual scientists actually seek out the truth, as we would still be living in the stone age with their level of thought.

    35. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The step from single cellular to multicellular took 3 billion years, not 3 million.

    36. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As the other AC noted, you are off by a factor of 1,000

      Current theory is that life formed on Earth 3.6 Billion years ago and the first animal life 0.6 Billion years ago.

    37. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Even during the time the article is talking about, the average density of space would have been a couple hundred atoms per cubic meter instead of a couple atoms per cubic meter like now, which is still less than the typical density within a galaxy between stars.

    38. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by JWSmythe · · Score: 1

      Sorry, I meant to type billion. :)

      --
      Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
    39. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      You realize the moon was a collision between earth and another planetoid.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    40. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by mark-t · · Score: 1

      ID is a supernatural explanation

      So, suggesting that "aliens who predated us did it" is a supernatural explanation? I'll agree it's probably isomorphic to one for most practical purposes given what we know today, but is it actually one?

    41. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I always wondered what the point was with considering panspermia. If life could have appeared anywhere in order to make it to Earth, it could have just as easily originated on Earth to begin with. There's nothing miraculous about Earth, but there is nothing sub-standard about it either.

      It would be interesting to know if terrestrial life started elsewhere, but what problems does that hypothesis solve? The only one I can think of is why all almost all Star Trek aliens look like humans with different foreheads.

      Uhm, yeah . . . "if" . . .

    42. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You realize the moon was a collision between earth and another planetoid.

      Formed as the result of a collision, perhaps.

      An actual collision? I think not.

    43. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      life-bearing planets

      Who needs planets? If the whole universe is a comfy "room temperature" you'd just need a bit of free-floating primordial soup to brew up some RNA, and with no gravity well to escape, it could spread rapidly throughout.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    44. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by steelfood · · Score: 1

      The real problem was that none of the aliens spoke English.

      --
      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
    45. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      I've been a Star Trek fan since the first episode aired in 1966, but that particular attempt to explain why so many Star Trek aliens are so human-like was really, really lame. So, all the Federation planets were seeded by primitive parts of DNA and all managed to evolve creatures so similar, considering the difference between an octopus and a sparrow?

      I parodied Star Trek and Star Wars (yes, I'm a SW fan too) here.

    46. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by romons · · Score: 1

      Ambient radiation. Also, supernovae nearby, sterilizing planets again and again. Also, it would take DNA far longer than a few million years to form if it could survive radiation. Also, no galaxies earlier than 500 million years.

      However, if it is true, then we are living in 'the big freeze' of that time period. I wonder what will be alive in our 'big freeze'?

      --
      Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company -- Mark Twain
    47. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Triklyn · · Score: 1

      you can either talk about ID as a pseudoscientific handflailing all-encompassing concept it likes to claim itself to be. Or you can talk about the thinly veiled excuse to reintroduce christian theology into US biology classrooms it actually is. ID as a term only came into frequent use when the attempts of the creationism movement failed and they sought other avenues to attempt to undermine evolution.

      the key difference between panspermia and goddidit ID, is predominantly that one can find evidence for or against panspermia. Find some wierd radiation in space that will fry any genetic material like no other? panspermia is looking pretty weak, find a rock on the moon that can be traced from intergalactic space somehow? looking a little stronger. Find evidence of organic matter on europa, looking a lot stronger... evidence of, evidence of, evidence of.

      The only thing that would I could possibly imagine proving the tenants of ID are finding some wierd morse code message spelled out in our collective DNA saying "I YAHWEH MADE YOU." like some crazy 'made in china' label.

      Hell, some ID apologists are even claiming evolution as part of the design, as if to say, look, it's fine, everything squares away, there is no cognitive dissonance...

    48. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, that is the top accepted theory. A roughly Mars sized object collided with proto-Earth billions of years ago during the time that Earth was still coalescing and cooling. That collision added matter to the Earth and also ejected matter back into space which eventually condensed into our moon.

    49. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by tragedy · · Score: 1

      But if life caught and spread in that very early universe, there could have been life waiting in the wings to fill in areas that were sterilized later. Between areas too hot for life and too cold for life, you get areas where life can thrive, or, at least, cling on to existence by its fingernails, or even die but leave behind materials that are much more likely to become life again than random material. So, the idea here is that life develops and spreads in the early universe and then gets scattered across it as it ages.

      As for the problem of interstellar distances, and working under the assumption that life can't be preserved frozen for millions of years, you have to realize that interstellar distances are a temporary problem. You imagine life travelling on rocks taking millions of years to cross the vast gulfs of space between stars. The thing is, those vast gulfs aren't always so vast. Consider Barnard's star. At present, it's moving towards our sun at .04% of the speed of light. That's pretty fast. In just 8000 years it will have moved about 2.2 light years closer to Earth and will be closer to Earth than Proxima Centauri is now. In 33,000 years, Ross 248 should be 1 light year closer to Earth than Proxima Centauri is now. It should be obvious from this that, over the course of billions of years, many stars make really close approaches to other stars. Galaxies are giant stellar blenders. When stars make really close approaches, the odds of life surviving a transfer becomes significantly greater.

    50. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by tragedy · · Score: 1

      the average density of space would have been a couple hundred atoms per cubic mete

      "Average", yes. Are you suggesting that it was also uniform?

    51. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by qwak23 · · Score: 1

      Somewhere between Star Trek IV and Star Trek V, Captain Kirk realized he could travel through time and have sex not only with green women, but women of all shapes and colors, thus humanity and all "alien" species most recent common ancestor is William Shatner.

    52. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, the point is it was still non-uniform back then, with small clumps of interesting stuff separated by large regions of very little stuff, and hence misleading to say space was "tiny" back then. By the time being discussed, traveling through interstellar space is still about as difficult as it would be today. Life wouldn't have spread easier because it was easier to travel, but possibly because necessary conditions were more ubiquitous.

    53. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not so, as the first stars formed in very rare peaks in the density field of the universe, so there were not many of them. It is not clear that they would have been all that close to each other, even given the compactness of the visible universe during this time.

    54. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, I'm a member of SAG/AFTRA. It's a little known fact that the performers guilds were the first to accept non-humanoids as full members. This is a show-business tradition dating back to the traditional "tentacle" shows which were such a staple of vaudeville. Sure, now they're considered vulgar and specieist, but back then they were ground breaking. It wasn't until the late 20s that humans and non-humanoids shared a stage, though, in the Broadway production of "The Glfrxs". Today it would be considered ridiculously sentimental, and the jokes don't work, but at the time it was very daring.
      You tell this stuff to kids today, they won't believe you.

    55. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by stenvar · · Score: 1

      The conditions for live to have evolved may simply not have existed on Earth, ever. In that case, all the research aimed at figuring out which earth environments life evolved in may be futile.

      In addition, if life evolved on earth, it must evolve easily, since it appeared very quickly, as soon as temperatures were low enough. If it was seeded by panspermia, life may be a very low probability event.

      Furthermore, if life was seeded from space, it would greatly change the way we interpret the genetic record of evolution. A lot of genes in higher organisms are surprisingly old, evolutionarily speaking. It's not at the level of a problem or a contradiction, but it is curious.

    56. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by stenvar · · Score: 1

      Both intelligent design and panspermia are hypotheses about specific historical events, not scientific "theories"; that's why they don't have "predictive power". That doesn't make them unimportant or unscientific per se.

      The problem with "intelligent design" is that it is trying to resolve an issue that simply doesn't exist: nobody has ever actually observed "irreducible complexity" in biology, and "intelligent design" isn't needed. On the other hand, panspermia allows us to consider additional reasonable theories for the origin of life.

    57. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by stenvar · · Score: 1

      while "intelligent design" introduces a whole new layer of metaphysical complication entirely outside of scientific knowledge

      There is nothing metaphysical about "intelligent design" in principle: life on earth could have been designed by an intelligent alien. It only becomes a metaphysical issue to Christians because they wrongly belief that "the Creator" must be omnipotent, omniscient, immanent, eternal, and personal, and that he requires or deserve our worship and obedience. Intelligent design might as well be some alien's high school science project gone horribly wrong.

      The real problem with intelligent design is that it tries to provide an explanation for a non-existent problem, namely "irreducible complexity".

    58. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by stenvar · · Score: 1

      As a Christian, I happen to believe in a God who created the universe (and don't see this as incompatible with observable scientific materialist descriptions)

      Christians believe in an immanent, personal God, not just a creator. So, which are you? Christian or deist?

    59. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would have if the Earth was not a molten mess or a gas cloud.

      Can you imagine a senior civilization around a really old Type K star with a billion year start on technology?

    60. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by jalopezp · · Score: 1

      The odds of you getting lucky in the next ten minutes << The odds of you getting lucky in the next ten years.

    61. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by femtobyte · · Score: 1

      Full-on Christian, with all the other stuff that comes in the Apostles' Creed, etc. My statement of belief in God as creator was not intended to exclude other, perhaps more important roles for God.

    62. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by stenvar · · Score: 1

      That's why I was asking. However, I consider "all the other stuff" to be at least as irrational and inconsistent with physical reality as "intelligent design".

    63. Re:Millions of years of life-supporting conditions by femtobyte · · Score: 1

      Fair enough --- I personally don't consider it "irrational" so much as "non-rational," as in not derived by logical deduction within an empirical framework. One of my big objections to "Intelligent Design," however, is its fundamental dishonesty in attempting to cloak religiously-motivated metaphysics in scientific terms --- which makes for both terrible science and terrible theology. If I'm going to "talk God," I'm not going to lie about the fact I'm doing so; and make a clear distinction between concepts derived by logic from empirical observation, and concepts derived by faith from hearing and believing a Christian proclamation.

  2. And ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    And I could have been born smart and good looking. But that didn't happen either.

  3. Anthropic Principle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't think the author completely understands what the Anthropic Principle is.

    1. Re:Anthropic Principle by boristhespider · · Score: 4, Informative

      With no offense to an AC on Slashdot, and acknowledging that I also do not agree with Loeb's conclusions in this paper (even describing some of it as "calculations" is stretching the word somewhat), I can confirm that Loeb is an extremely capable cosmologist who has contributed far more to science than I ever have (and, I would guess, than you ever have either - though obviously I might be wrong on that one) and than most people ever have. He's one of the people I'd say would understand the anthropic principle.

      I'm not sure what he was intending to accomplish here, but in general his output is of the highest quality.

    2. Re:Anthropic Principle by go4sporting · · Score: 0

      I agree with you

    3. Re:Anthropic Principle by pepty · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If the background radiation was 100x hotter, would there have been a lot more hard radiation flying about as well?

    4. Re:Anthropic Principle by eggstasy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes. There would have been a lot more stars blowing up right in your vicinity, but more importantly, the newly-formed heavy elements would have been naturally accompanied by their usual radioactive isotopes, but why bother a physicist with the laws of biology, eh? :)
      It is commonly thought that life evolved when it did because it's the time it took for radioactive elements to decay.

      Of course, ratios of radioactive to stable isotopes vary from place to place, depending on which star blew up to create them and how old it was. But you can't really say the whole universe was a goldilocks zone. It would have taken a special place with more than just water - and the oldest galaxy we know of is 380 million years old. And let's not forget that 15 million old Earth was just a giant ball of magma... constantly being hit by giant asteroids. The Hadean period (Hades = the ancient greek version of Hell) is thought to have lasted about 600 million years.

      I doubt a 15 million year old universe would have been little more than atomic soup. Water may have existed, but not as we know it. It takes more than 15 million years for a star to form and blow up, where would you have gotten enough heavy elements for a planet to arise? :)
      The first stars are thought to have formed 100 million years after the Big Bang, not 15. Dude's on crack.

    5. Re:Anthropic Principle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't matter too much, since it doesn't take very much dirt or water on a planet's surface to shield life underneath from practically all the radiation.

    6. Re:Anthropic Principle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Does the origins of the anthropic principle lie in the old "no universe without an observer" idea in QM? Because I thought that idea was pretty much dead in quantum mechanics. The collapse of the wave function occurs mathematically through interaction with the environment, not necessarily with a conscious human observer.

    7. Re:Anthropic Principle by Pino+Grigio · · Score: 1

      The radioactive isotopes are a bonus. Via differentiation, radioactive decay in a planet's core generates lots of heat and heat is what you need if you want lots of hydrothermal vents to accumulate and concentrate organic molecules for you.

    8. Re:Anthropic Principle by Zephyn · · Score: 1

      I doubt a 15 million year old universe would have been little more than atomic soup. Water may have existed, but not as we know it. It takes more than 15 million years for a star to form and blow up, where would you have gotten enough heavy elements for a planet to arise? :)

      That's not quite accurate. Heavier radioactive elements would have come from supernovas, which only occur in stars much more massive than our own. The more massive the star, the higher its luminosity and the shorter its lifespan. Some of the most massive stars we've found will spend (or have spent) less than 100,000 years on the main sequence before expanding into supergiants and exploding as supernovae. So there's plenty of time for nucelosynthesis over that 15 million year span.

  4. So Space Whales? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So does this imply that it's plausible that life could have formed and subisuently evolved an extrmophile form that may still be roaming deep space?

    1. Re:So Space Whales? by HaeMaker · · Score: 5, Informative

      No. Water is water at 300K at standard pressure. IN space, water is steam without pressure. You need gravity and an atmosphere to create pressure.

    2. Re:So Space Whales? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hmm,- what if you had a large enough concentration of water (and other stuff, like rocks) that it remained liquid under its own gravity, hence, no steam?

    3. Re: So Space Whales? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You'd get a great big ball of rock and ice, silly.

    4. Re:So Space Whales? by roc97007 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Hmm,- what if you had a large enough concentration of water (and other stuff, like rocks) that it remained liquid under its own gravity, hence, no steam?

      I think that's called a planet.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    5. Re:So Space Whales? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you had an Earth sized ball of water would it be liquid all the way through?

    6. Re:So Space Whales? by ihtoit · · Score: 2

      interesting... ...at what depth is the pressure great enough for water molecules to metallise?

      We're talking about 1GPa of pressure at 300K here. That's 10,000 bar. Or 64 miles deep, then you're talking ice at room temperature.

      (Reference: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Physics)

      I don't think it would last long though (probably only a few hundred million to a couple billion years in the Goldilocks Zone), considering the surface, even though it would be frozen solid in about 6 seconds after exposure to space, would start to sublime under raw solar radiation (and be instantly whipped away in a massive ion tail turning your planet into a super-giant ice comet) and particle bombardment since there would be little, if any, magnetic field to deflect said particles and no atmosphere to absorb the radiation.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
    7. Re:So Space Whales? by ByteSlicer · · Score: 1

      even though it would be frozen solid in about 6 seconds after exposure to space

      That's Hollywood science. It would actually start boiling and freezing at the same time.
      If it managed to form an icy crust, this would stabilize the pressure and stop the boiling and freezing.
      If it was massive enough, the gaseous water would form an atmosphere that would also stabilize the pressure. Otherwise it would probably just boil away into space over time.
      With the pressure stabilized, it would only lose heat through black body radiation, which would take a long long time to freeze it because water holds large amounts of thermal energy.

    8. Re:So Space Whales? by ByteSlicer · · Score: 1

      the surface, even though it would be frozen solid in about 6 seconds after exposure to space

      Seems I read too fast and missed some crucial words. So that's more probable.
      But I think it would look more like an icy explosion of gas, like a comet tail. My guess is that it would be too violent to allow a crust to form.
      Of course, putting a large volume of water in space at once is a hypothetical scenario.

    9. Re:So Space Whales? by jalopezp · · Score: 1

      No, it would not.

      This problem is about the hydrostatic equilibrium of a self-gravitating sphere of water. Let's take:

      • P to be pressure,
      • g to be gravity,
      • G to be Newton's gravitational constant = 6.67384E-11,
      • R to be the radius of the planet,
      • r to be distance from the centre of the planet. We will essentially use this a variable to integrate.

      According to the last equation here, we have that:

      dP = g(r) rho(r) dr

      Water under great pressure does compress, but just to make things easy, let's assume it doesn't. This makes rho=1000Kg/m^3, a constant. We can also use the Shell theorem to point out that g(r)=-GM/r^2, where M is the mass inside r. We have thus:

      M=4/3 pi r^3 rho

      dP=-4/3G pi r^3 rho (rho/r^2)=-4/3G pi rho^2 r

      Now we integrate this from R to 0, and determine that the pressure at the centre of a planet of radius R is:

      P(R)=2/3G pi rho^2 R^2 :: Pascals

      The radius of earth is roughly 6371Km, which means that if it were made entirely out of water, the pressure at the centre would be about 5.67gPa. Now take a look at this phase diagram for water and notice that at this pressure, and for any temperature roughly between 0 and 100C, water is in the Ice VII phase. Which is solid.

      Thanks to rpenner here. Why can't I get fucking rho and pi to display?

  5. ah yes, a time when by Bramlet+Abercrombie · · Score: 4, Funny

    His vast Noodly Appendeges still bathed the entire cosmos is a fine tomato based sauce.

  6. Begats Galore by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    That's a heck of a lot of "greats" in great great great great great..........great grandparent.

    "I used to squirm to school barefooted in cosmic radiation and supernovas exploding in my protoplasm face every day!"

  7. Panspermia? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    If this is true, the entire universe could have been seeded with life, or at least its precursors, almost from the very beginning.

  8. not just planets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It wouldn't have been just planets that were this warm. All the asteroids, comets, dust specs would have been this warm. If you look at evolution as time * volume, what was the volume here? Does this time * volume exceed all of Earth's history?

    There's also the matter of energy. Just being warm enough to have water doesn't imply being able to run a heat pump. Don't know if chemicals are enough, or if you need a nearby sun. If you need a nearby sun, the Goldilocks epoch would be later than this calculation.

    1. Re:not just planets by ihtoit · · Score: 2

      if the volume of the universe is infinite, it can be reasoned (I won't go into the why) that it was infinite fourteen billion years ago.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
  9. Duh.... by Lumpy · · Score: 4, Funny

    Everyone knows the Time Lords are one of the first races of the galaxy.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:Duh.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pretty sure Time Lords were previous universe's humans that managed to survive past the universe's EOL.

      Hence the whole spiel about reverting back to teh basic human form and the whole "you look human" "you look time lord" bit.

    2. Re:Duh.... by rssrss · · Score: 1

      The Time Lords are mere children compared to Cthulhu and the Great Old Ones.

      "These Great Old Ones, Castro continued, were not composed altogether of flesh and blood. ... But although They no longer lived, They would never really die. They all lay in stone houses in Their great city of R'lyeh, preserved by the spells of mighty Cthulhu for a glorious resurrection when the stars and the earth might once more be ready for Them. ..."

      "The Call of Cthulhu" by H.P. Lovecraft (1928)

      --
      In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
    3. Re:Duh.... by EdIII · · Score: 2

      It always gets my nipples taught when ever I have a reason to quote Lovecraft.....

      I guess it's the same with you?

    4. Re:Duh.... by Randle_Revar · · Score: 2

      *taut.
      Unless your nipples enjoy learning, I guess.

    5. Re:Duh.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They don't enjoy it, but it has to be done.

    6. Re:Duh.... by Neil+Boekend · · Score: 1

      And they still are not as old as the Niblonians.

      --
      Well, I might have a way, but it only works on a semi spherical planet in a vacuum.
    7. Re:Duh.... by martin-boundary · · Score: 1

      Or the last. Perhaps they just copied the time travel tech from sifting through the remains of older, smarter races, and then they went back in time to be "first".

    8. Re:Duh.... by captjc · · Score: 1

      No they weren't Lorien's race was the first, Then came the Vorlons and the Shadows.

      --
      Slow Down Cowboy! It's been 1 hour, 47 minutes since you last successfully posted a comment
    9. Re:Duh.... by cellocgw · · Score: 1

      Heck, the Great Old Ones, as well as these Goldilocks-era beings, are old hat compared with the Photinos and Xeelee

      --
      https://app.box.com/WitthoftResume Code: https://github.com/cellocgw
    10. Re:Duh.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I heard, his left nipple has a PhD.

      (now there is a sentance I never expected to type)

    11. Re:Duh.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Doctor met an Old One in one episode, though it was likened to Satan and not Cthulhu&Friends.

  10. Fluidic Space by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So would this in theory have created a universe akin to fluidic space from ST:Voyager? LIke would the whole universe be composed of this? Or just clusters of matter of stars and planets like today?

    Frankly i feel very stupid for asking this question and using that reference (always thought fluidic space was a dumb idea), but I admit in my non-astro-physicist mind this idea sounds compelling.

    1. Re:Fluidic Space by EdIII · · Score: 1

      So would this in theory have created a universe akin to fluidic space from ST:Voyager? LIke would the whole universe be composed of this? Or just clusters of matter of stars and planets like today?

      Frankly i feel very stupid for asking this question and using that reference (always thought fluidic space was a dumb idea), but I admit in my non-astro-physicist mind this idea sounds compelling.

      It's not a dumb idea or question and makes sense from a certain point of view.

      If you have fluidic space that means that you don't have space. Literally. Everything is so jammed packed right next to each other that it phase changes to a liquid.

      My understanding of gravity tells me that would inevitably create whirlpools of "liquid" being drawn into high concentrations of liquid being compressed more and more by gravity itself. Then you have dark matter which some how is responsible for pushing matter away from each other.

      What would result from that seems to be a hell of lot more chaotic than fluidic space implies. There would be energy trying to push you in one direction while at the same time fly over towards another particle with a lot more influence than you see today.

      I honestly have a hard time seeing how stars could be formed, much less planets, under liquid space conditions.

  11. A long time ago.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    in a far away Galaxy..

  12. This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This is pretty scary. One of the major unsolved problems right now is the Fermi problem- why we don't see any signs of civilizations other than our own, not just no radio transmissions but no Dyson spheres (and yes, we've looked http://home.fnal.gov/~carrigan/infrared_astronomy/Fermilab_search.htm, stellar uplifting, ringworlds or the like. Whatever is blocking this is the so-called Great Filter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter. Now, some of the Filter could be in our past. It may be tough for life to arise or for multicellular life to arise, etc. However, the more disturbing possibility is that it exists in our future: maybe civilizations before they can spread out manage to wipe themselves out with their technologies, such as through nuclear war, bad nanotech, engineered bioweapons, resource depletion, environmental damage, or something we haven't even thought about before.

    Over the last few years, more and more evidence has suggested that a lot of the obvious filtration events in the past aren't serious filters. For example, we've found that planets are common. This is not only an example of more such evidence, but it suggests that if life got started it would have had billions years more to evolve, meaning that evolutionarily based filters will be substantially less effective. Worse, it undermines one of the easier ways to try and get around a filter, to suggest that the conditions for complex life didn't arise until recently. There are serious problems with that idea already (especially the fact that life on Earth spent hundreds of millions of years in near stasis), and this makes those problems even more severe. If this checks out, it will be strong evidence that a substantial portion of the filter is in the future. If so, it is likely that the Filter is something that is going to happen to us within the next few hundred years, since it gets harder to wipe out a civilization once they spread beyond their initial planet, and most obvious things that would do so are also more noticeable.

    1. Re:This is frightening by roc97007 · · Score: 2

      > However, the more disturbing possibility is that it exists in our future: maybe civilizations before they can spread out manage to wipe themselves out with their technologies, such as through nuclear war, bad nanotech, engineered bioweapons, resource depletion, environmental damage, or something we haven't even thought about before.

      Reality TV. I tell ya.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    2. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Well, no Dyson spheres. So what? Those and other conjectures about what signs an extremely advanced civilization might leave behind are just the weak guesses of a mob of relative insects (earthlings). Advanced civilizations may well have solutions and technology that we cannot even imagine. In fact, I think it unlikely that we would have any mental grasp of such advanced technology, as big a blow to our egos as that might be.

    3. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Doesn't work. It isn't just a lack of Dyson spheres. It is a complete lack of any signs of artificial structure, or of use of the vast amounts of energy available from stars. As far as we can tell, everything looks natural.

    4. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful
      There is no paradox. The laws of physics are the same all over, it's just not possible to build the kind of things you'd see at stellar distances. Sorry to burst your bubble. The real paradox is why people still think we should look for impossible things. Our own civilization went from spark gap generators to low power ultra-wideband and fiber optic technology within a century.

      At cosmological time scales that's a blip. Our radio waves will most likely never be heard again just like we'll never hear theirs.

      For the record I think that there is life everywhere in the universe because the laws of physics will be the same.

      But let me guess, you believe the aliens use magical particles like tachyons and gravitons to communicate and we're just too stupid to figure it out but when we do we'll be invited to the galactic fraternity, right?

    5. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe the scariest thing is that Earth and humanity might be special? I'm an atheist (or at least someone who believes that IF there ever was a higher-order being/beings involved in the history of Earth, he/she/it/they sure as hell isn't around anymore), but what if there's something to intelligent design?

      Now THAT'S a scary thought.

    6. Re:This is frightening by Charliemopps · · Score: 2, Interesting

      We can't see extra-solar civilizations because our technology sucks. We don't even know whats on the bottom of our own oceans and you're thinking Aliens that are probably millions of years more advanced that us at the very least would still use Radio waves and think of a Dyson Sphere as anything more than obserd joke? Do you think that we'll still be emitting radio waves in even 500 years time? How about 1000?

    7. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 4, Insightful

      mod up.

      From the GP, "why we don't see any signs of civilizations other than our own, not just no radio transmissions but no Dyson spheres (and yes, we've looked http://home.fnal.gov/~carrigan/infrared_astronomy/Fermilab_search.htm [fnal.gov], stellar uplifting, ringworlds"

      What would you expect to see? Realistically? We've been listening for about 50 years (less, on a semi-professional basis). That's fifty years. Civilsation on Earth has been going about 5000 or so (very roughly, I'm not in the mood for pointless arguments about what constitutes "civilisation" when we compare Neolithic with Mesolithic, thanks). Mankind has been around for very roughly 100,000. 100,000 years is *nothing*, and yet for almost all of that time we've been totally invisible. It's only in the last 100 years that we've been blasting radio waves out to the cosmos. For the last decade or so, much of that has been encrypted and therefore looks like noise. It may not look like *random* noise, but it looks like noise. How do you expect an alien race, less than ten light years away, to possibly decrypt communications sent in a language they don't speak, through a character set they don't use, through mappings that make no sense to their computers, passed through encryption they don't have a handle on? They can't, it's a foolish belief. Even without encryption, modern digital transmission is refined enough that it's unlikely an alien race would be able to rapidly decode our transmissions, if at all.

      So if you accept this line of argument, we've basically transmitted approximately a century's worth of information out to the heavens, in a very thin shell of expanding radiation. That radiation grows horrifically weak very quickly and would be hard to pick up over the Sun's background noise. What we're expecting, if an alien race is to even know of our existence, is that they are at the exact point in their development that they can somehow pick out our unencrypted transmissions above the Sun's natural noise, and then somehow decode those transmissions and make sense of them. Most of those transmissions are crappy 1970s sitcoms, or endless radio adverts. Fortunately no-one will know this, because it relies on there being a civilisation extraordinarily local to us, at exactly the same level of development as us, and actually listening to the outside world. Those chances are excruciatingly poor.

      That goes the other way round.

      For the rest, Dyson spheres? A myth. Freeman Dyson is close to a legend, but Dyson spheres are not a realitic proposition - not for us, and not for anyone.

      Ringworlds? Lol.

      I don't even know what is meant by "Stellar uplifting". If it involves doing anything to do with manipulating the Sun... yeah, you go ahead, I'll do something less likely to kill me.

    8. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We're not throwing an intergalactic kegger here.

    9. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 4, Informative

      , it's just not possible to build the kind of things you'd see at stellar distances.

      I'm curious why you think that given that for example a small Class A stellar engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_engine appears to be buildable with what we know about materials science. And this isn't the only example of such. The requirements are purely on the amount of resources that need to go in, not physical limitations. Yes, some specific suggestions would require materials that look impossible. For example, an inflexible single piece ringworld is likely to be impossible (the tensile strength among other requirements make it implausible). But many megascale structures aren't in that category.

      But let me guess, you believe the aliens use magical particles like tachyons and gravitons to communicate and we're just too stupid to figure it out but when we do we'll be invited to the galactic fraternity, right?

      No. Absolutely not. First note that tachyons and gravitons aren't "magical" there's a massive difference between theoretical particles consistent with the laws of physics. It is likely that tachyons do not exist, since they'd either allow causality violations (unlikely) or they'd not allow communication. Similarly, thinking that one could use something like gravitons to communicate is just silly since they'd be incredibly weak. I don't have any belief in some galactic fraternity, but your attempt to pigeon hole rather than read what people write is interesting. Concerns about the Great Filter arise specifically from there being no evidence of anything remotely like that. If there were any reason to think that was at all likely, we could breath a lot easier.

      For the record I think that there is life everywhere in the universe because the laws of physics will be the same.

      So, we're in complete agreement here. But the problem is what this leads to: it means that out of the civilizations, none of them are trying anything on a large scale, not even the few more ambitious ones. This suggests that once life gets sufficiently advanced, it gets wiped out somehow. The Great Filter is a serious problem: Nick Bostrom and his colleagues at the Future of Humanity Institute for example have given this a lot of thought. See for example http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf. And this is very much the sort of problem where if it exists, pretending it doesn't won't make it go away.

    10. Re:This is frightening by khallow · · Score: 1

      it's just not possible to build the kind of things you'd see at stellar distances.

      Actually, it is. Dyson spheres for example are such a case. One doesn't build them out of a single shell, but rather out of a cloud of satellites. So the hard engineering requirements are that you build a lot of satellites and that you figure out traffic control. Neither is physically impossible.

      That structure would be visible to anyone with our level of technology (eg, the Hubble Space Telescope) in our galaxy who has line of sight.

      Also there's the matter of local structures. Why aren't there obvious buildings or other structures on Earth or nearby (say on the Moon) from extraterrestrials?

    11. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Well, here's the thing. All life about 100 years after evolving enough to invent the radio, also invents compresion, cryptography, the phased-array antenna, and so forth. That means that while we were looking for an intergalactic broadcast of the 1936 Olympic Games, we were picking up only occasional blips of highly compressed and encrypted alien tentacle pr0ns, indistinguishable from background noise.

    12. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Radio waves aren't useful as much as a method of communication from incidental power. Indeed, even in the last few years, as our radio systems have become more efficient, Earth has become on many frequencies darker than it was in the 1960s. The key isn't use of radio waves as an incidental, but as a method a culture might deliberately use to say "hey! Look! We're out here!" As to Dyson spheres, they are one example of many possible large scale projects, but I'm curious why you consider them in particular to be "obserd[sic] joke"- they are if possible, an extremely useful way of using a large amount of available energy.

    13. Re:This is frightening by wisnoskij · · Score: 2

      I agree, I ran the Math, and basically considering the distances involved and the time-frame, I am fairly convinced we will never find aliens and never colonise space (to any significant degree).

      Either space colonization is completely impractical, or all advanced civilizations quickly become extinct, or for some reason all decide to never leave their planet.
      Only one of these ideas really makes any sense, in my mind. I think your bounds are too small personally, I think something on the order of the next tens of thousands of years is more reasonable. Not that a few hundred is not plausible, but that 10K is plausible as well.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    14. Re:This is frightening by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      Or "Intelligent Gardeners" who wipe out or "trim" civilization spacing to avoid messy conflicts (which probably otherwise end in the most advanced one wiping out or diluting the newer one, based on Earth history.)

      Or maybe "UFO Theory" is correct, and the "zoo keepers" protect us from cosmic riff-raff and have done thinning or cloaking around us.

    15. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      The issue isn't the use of radio waves as an incidental. Radio waves come out from deliberate attempts by civilizations try to set up beacons and say "Hey! We're here." I agree that are normal radio use is insufficient to be detected. Heck, even if you were at Alpha Centauri, telling that our radio transmissions are not natural would be tough. As to the large scale projects in question, simply calling them myths and saying "lol" is not a logical response, but essentially the absurdity heuristic http://lesswrong.com/lw/j4/absurdity_heuristic_absurdity_bias/. As to stellar lifting, you could instead of just declaring your ignorance spend a few seconds Googling or looking at Wikipedia. See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_uplift. And no, you don't generally do stellar uplifting to your own home star (unless you are doing something to extend its lifespan which seems dubious). You'd do stellar uplifting and similar techniques to get useful mass out of stars that don't have habitable planets near them (at least if you were remotely ethical from a human standpoint).

    16. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about running out of easily-extracted, affordable natural resources before you make it off the planet and never getting another chance at it? How about the society, stabilized at some reasonable comfort level, becoming so risk-averse that exploration is no longer mentally conceivable? We're approaching both of those even if nothing goes catastrophically wrong. Our current generation has lost interest in the universe, and humanity expanding into space is now further away from reality than it was 50 years ago. When considering the future, the best minds are concerned with maintaining our lifestyle with dwindling resources and see moon/Mars colonies as a wasteful luxury. Now, magical technology could come out of the left field and change everything, but this is something that can't be planned. The longer we wait in absence of it, the fewer resources we will have to dedicate to research or "breaking out". A permanent status quo will become more optimized over time until mankind is subsisting at the exact capacity that Earth can provide indefinitely, with no energy used for anything except survival at a static population level.

    17. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because we:

      a) lack the necessary specific tech to detect such a precise thing like another civilization

      b) aren't smart enough to see it (see *a*)

      c) we're in a wrong spot in the galaxy/universe. It's a big place. Get over yourself, we're only human and not that good.

    18. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends. We still use gun powder. That stuff has been in use for varies things for at least a thousand years. Marijuana has been used for thousands of years as well. They found some buried in a Chinese tomb dating back quite a while ago.

      So we may still be using radio waves, depending on the application at hand. It may fall into a more obscure use but doesn't necessarily mean we won't use it.

    19. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's possible we are looking for the wrong signals too.

      They may not be using radio to communicate, but their starship engines and large construction products might produce huge amounts of RF interference as an unintended side effect.

    20. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      "Actually, it is. Dyson spheres for example are such a case. "

      Show me one. Ah, I see. So when you say things like "Actually, it is", you're talking crap straight out of your ass.

      "One doesn't build them out of a single shell, but rather out of a cloud of satellites."

      Oh, one does! How interesting! Do you have this "one"'s phone number or Twitter? Or is it more fantasy-level crap straight from your ass?

    21. Re:This is frightening by symbolset · · Score: 1

      It should be easy enough to see ion engines or direct thermal thrust engines.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    22. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I love science fiction as much as the next guy, possibly even more....but people's inability to distinguish reality from fiction is really irritating. Do you know how much material is required for such a construct?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere
      "A spherical shell Dyson sphere in the Solar System with a radius of one astronomical unit, so that the interior surface would receive the same amount of sunlight as Earth does per unit solid angle, would have a surface area of approximately 28.1 Eha (Exa Hectare), or about 550 million times the surface area of Earth"

      Let alone what would be required to keep that material stably orbiting?

      It has to be worthwhile to do - there has to be a payoff. "Oh cool I'm a sci-fi geek" isn't enough.

    23. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which would explain the quiet. And given that civilizations tend to last only 1,000 years or so, that would never be enough time.
      Or,you could say that it's only our chimp civilizations that have such limited spans. And that our chimp governments have been hiding/forced to hide the knowledge of ET's existence. That we'venever been alone, and space is swarming with the signatures of life, we ordinary slaves just aren't privy to it. The latter makes ore sense funnily enough.

    24. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's really no surprise that we can't pick up any meaningful radio transmissions - the power dissipation makes it useless at stellar distances.

      At a distance of 1 light-year, a 10 petawatt radio transmission is weakened to about 9 femtowatts; the CMB has an average power level of about 10 microwatts. At that distance the radio signal is slightly less than one trillionth of the power of the background radiation and is basically undetectable.

      If we increase the radio transmitter's power output to 10 yottawatts, the signal still drops to about the same energy level as the CMB at one light-years' distance.

      Based on the power generation stats I found on Wikipedia, that would use up a year's worth of all human power output in about 0.6 seconds.

    25. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not just this, but there is also the glaring fact that we do not know what causes life! To make such a claim of "it could take X years to get life" when we don't know what initially causes life is simply asinine. Make sure that you read about why the primordial soup experiment was bullshit before you bring that out as the answer.

    26. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Also there's the matter of local structures. Why aren't there obvious buildings or other structures on Earth or nearby (say on the Moon) from extraterrestrials?"

      Maybe there is and we just have spotted them yet (despite its size its still a tiny little blip on the surface) or we don't recognize what they are (Because our expectation of what a structure they might use is very different) or they had it there and a meteor obliterated it and we can't see the debris at a distance.

    27. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is almost a troll (maybe it is, but I'm in a good mood). Reductio ad absurdum is not the answer to the question of "is there a creator/god" no matter what you atheists try to claim. Get a basic Philosophy book and start at page 1.

    28. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We can only monitor a very small area of the universe. The are countless galaxies out there that we simply don't have the ability to analyze in any detail.

    29. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Doesn't work. It isn't just a lack of Dyson spheres. It is a complete lack of any signs of artificial structure, or of use of the vast amounts of energy available from stars. As far as we can tell, everything looks natural.

      That's assuming we'd even be able to recognize whatever technology they're using. With self replicating machines Dyson spheres are not that far off in our own civilization, may be a few 10,000 years. That is 5 orders of magnitude less than a billion year civilization.

      It's like ants asking why they do not see the chemical trails of our civilization, not recognizing that that we [mostly] completely understand their chemical trails but we have much better alternatives and operate on a much larger scale. They don't even see our cars driving past or our planes flying overhead. We could affect an ant in many ways and sometimes do as a side effect of something we are doing but usually we simply ignore them.

      Personally, I think we are probably the, possibly accidental, result of such a civilization. The many unexplained astronomical phenomena could be the result of civilizations at work and play. e.g. Dark matter could be those consumed stars you're talking about. We don't see the infrared from the Dyson spheres because they've figured out a way to use that low grade energy. May be they're playing in higher dimensions somehow. We just don't know and it's the height of hubris to think that we'd be able to even detect such civilizations.

      It's also worth noting that life itself is irrational (why live?) so we cannot ascribe any particular motives to them other than a will to live, including assuming they'd use energy efficiently and that they'd want to dominate their environment. Maybe they even evolved from beings that thinks camouflage is important and it's impolite not to use it...

    30. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 3, Interesting

      We don't have a complete theory of abiogenesis, true. But we don't need it to see that our plausible hypotheses don't make life arising to be that unlikely. And we have empirical evidence as well: we have traces of life that date back to very soon after Earth became hospitable. The Late Heavy Bombardment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Heavy_Bombardment ended some 3.8 billion years ago. The oldest fossils date to around 3.5 billion years ago. See http://www.paleosoc.org/Oldest_Fossil.pdf This suggests that life can arise in under 300 million years. It is possible of course that life arose during the LHB, and we cannot rule out panspermia. But together with the fact that many of the basic chemicals (e.g. many amino acid) used in life are not much more complicated than those that occur through non-living processes, we shouldn't at all expect there to be some magic time period it takes before life can form.

      As to your statement that "primordial soup experiment was bullshit"- I presume you are taking about the Miller-Urey experiments http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller-Urey_experiment. Why don't I just quote from the introduction of that Wikipedia article.

      After Miller's death in 2007, scientists examining sealed vials preserved from the original experiments were able to show that there were actually well over 20 different amino acids produced in Miller's original experiments. That is considerably more than what Miller originally reported, and more than the 20 that naturally occur in life.[7] Moreover, some evidence suggests that Earth's original atmosphere might have had a different composition from the gas used in the Miller–Urey experiment. There is abundant evidence of major volcanic eruptions 4 billion years ago, which would have released carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen (N2), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere. Experiments using these gases in addition to the ones in the original Miller–Urey experiment have produced more diverse molecules.[8]

      You may want to look at the section "Other experiments http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller-Urey_experiment#Other_experiments. So, yes by all means, please point me and others where to go to read up on how Milley's work was "bullshit" since I don't see it in any of the obvious places.

    31. Re:This is frightening by Aristos+Mazer · · Score: 2

      Maybe as soon as a species figures out what Dark Matter is they immediately decide to convert over. Once you go black, you never go back. ;-)

    32. Re:This is frightening by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      Maybe it's *supposed* to look natural.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    33. Re:This is frightening by tippe · · Score: 2

      On the whole, I agree with your post, but FYI: encrypted data may very well look like noise when you are looking at it in its digital "baseband" format (the raw cyphertext bits), but once it's encoded and modulated for transmission (FM, QAM, whatever), it no longer looks like random noise so much any more. Anyone with a suitable antenna and a means of displaying the frequency content of the received signal will immediately see a peak (or peaks) that corresponds to your transmission (assuming they can receive it, as your comment about the signal being drowned out by cosmic noise is valid). My point is that because of how signals are transmitted, an alien listener would still be able to tell we are here even if all of our transmissions are encrypted, and even if they are totally unable to demodulate or decrypt them.

    34. Re:This is frightening by wvmarle · · Score: 5, Interesting

      We can probably ignore the sun's background radiation: if an alien civilisation is advanced enough to see our planet next to the sun in visible light (reflection from the sun's rays) they can probably focus enough to pick up our radio signals (the sun's radio frequency waves will not be deflected by the Earth much if at all). The fact that there are radio signals coming from our planet should be the giveaway. No other planet in our solar system is producing such signals. And that's of course assuming this alien entity is using radio waves themselves for communication, and as such thinks it's a good idea to look for radio waves as a sign of the presence of intelligent life.

      Same for this SETI, I don't think we'll ever be able to understand alien signals beyond the mere fact that they are out there.

    35. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And you know this how? We might live in an area with a different physics. We really haven't been too far away from the Earth to test your hypothesis. I do applaud your zeal but the universe is a large, strange place which can't be generalized to this level. Just wait until what we find next year.

    36. Re:This is frightening by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

      You are thinking to narrowly. You would expect to see evidence of advanced civilizations, if not from their engineering works than from deliberate attempts to be noticed. It is unlikely that they would all have some kind of "prime directive".

      We already beam messages and send probes into space. An advanced civilization that has solved its resource problems would likely make am effort to explore and contract other races, just like we do, but on a much larger scale.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    37. Re:This is frightening by jmv · · Score: 1

      A few things to consider here. First, I don't see a way any of that life at T+15M would have become intelligent before the background got too cold. Second, we do not know if it's even possible for life to actually colonize other star systems and even if it is, what's the percentage of intelligent civilizations that achieve that. Of course, the really interesting question is how long an intelligent civilization can last before either destroying itself or depleting all its resources. Personally, I would suspect the half-life of a civilization is less than 1000 years after discovery of nuclear fission.

    38. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      I think your first point is the strongest, there may not have been enough time for life to evolve to any substantial intelligence in this state. However, I'd be more worried that given a few million years to evolve, the life could then survive in areas that are more harsh. Life could never have originated in the Sahara for example, but that doesn't stop there from being life that has evolved to survive and prosper there. The last sentence is interesting: do you mean that they wipe themselves out using nuclear weapons or do you mean something else?

    39. Re:This is frightening by gl4ss · · Score: 1

      for an external observer our continuous civilization has been going on for at least 7000 years by now, possibly longer.. there has been no regression to stone age during that period.

      perhaps we are in the first wave, perhaps it's extremely rare any species develops personalities such as humans(many traits of ours are quite counter intuitively survival benefits).

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    40. Re:This is frightening by ShoulderOfOrion · · Score: 1

      Every new black hole we discover is simply the remnant of another alien civilization that found that last great filter, believing they were about to test their first warp drive.

    41. Re:This is frightening by khallow · · Score: 1

      I'll just note that we already have a significant step towards Dyson spheres with satellites that are solar powered. From there, there are a few technological hurdles such as a solar power system able to withstand being fairly close to the Sun as well as as the previously mentioned traffic and debris control. There's also some major economic hurdles such as a manufacturing base capable of turning a significant amount of mass into these satellites over a reasonable period of time.

      But one doesn't have to break laws of physics, or even develop much in the way of technology past what we have today. It's also an incremental process which doesn't require you to fully embrace or fully complete the strategy in order to obtain benefit from the resulting infrastructure.

      My view is that you can trace a clear path from today's technology to something like this. It's extraordinarily ambitious, much like terraforming one of the planets. But it has the feature that it can be detected from far away since one effect is to create a larger lower temperature halo around the star (or even completely obscuring the star altogether).

    42. Re:This is frightening by jmv · · Score: 1

      do you mean that they wipe themselves out using nuclear weapons or do you mean something else?

      I use "nuclear fission" as a sort of "technological landmark". But I was thinking both in terms of "actively" wiping itself out (i.e. wars of some kind) and "passively" destroying itself just like we're currently doing by polluting everything and depleting resources at an insane rate.

    43. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even without encryption, modern digital transmission is refined enough that it's unlikely an alien race would be able to rapidly decode our transmissions, if at all.

      I don't think this is accurate. Any advanced civilization, one that can receive and identify 'constructed' E-M(radio) waves, will have had to gone through some sort of growth process of communication, similar to what we have had to. It is highly unlikely that any developing civilization would have jumped directly from the pen and paper physics, to decrypting complex structured extra-terrestrial broadcasts. I am not, however, without enough imagination to consider the possibility that a developing civilization would not test out all possible communications designs relating to frequencies, power demands, and protocols, before implementing such a system. Think of this as an implementation of permanence, where money isn't a factor in R&D, and it's implementation is everlasting. Yes, this might be unrealistic, but so is the consideration that our communications are so severely advanced as to be undecipherable, and undetectable from noise.

      Case in point, we're only now seeing fractals play a role in antenna design. Consider a civilization that has been utilizing such math for communications for several hundred years. We are still very adolescent when it comes to communications, efficiency, and design. As you said, we're only 100 years in. In the context of an advancing civilization, we literally just got started.

    44. Re:This is frightening by khallow · · Score: 1
      A spherical shell Dyson with a radius of a million kilometers (about the distance at which tungsten can melt) would be about a quadrillion hectares. At 1 kg per square meter (for solar cells and support infrastructure), that turns out to be roughly 10^16 kg of mass which is roughly a ten millionth of the mass of Mercury.

      Let alone what would be required to keep that material stably orbiting?

      Note that every single component would be a light sail and hence, inherently maneuverable. Similarly, one could deorbit debris via lasers or reflected sunlight.

      It has to be worthwhile to do - there has to be a payoff.

      You would be harvesting a significant fraction of the radiated energy of a star. That could be used for producing high energy things like processing large volumes of matter or creating large amounts of anti-matter. It could be used to beam power over dozens of light years or propel light sail vehicles to a significant fraction of the speed of light.

    45. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because the idiots are looking for fucking RADIO transmissions ... as soon as quantum-entangled communication is invented, our own radio era will STOP. It will have lasted no more than 100-150 years. Now FIND THAT in the cosmos. ALSO: Radio transmissions are WEAK, they're probably swallowed by the outer rim of the solar system. Fucking morons.

    46. Re:This is frightening by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      I was always under the impression that life started in hydrothermal vents via a process known a chemosynthesis. Eventually some of the cells developed an evolutionary adaptation toward the surface of the water. Photosynthesis is now in play, and the rest as they say, is history. Welcome to the Great Oxygenation Event and all that followed thereafter.

      The process seems pretty strait forward. Almost inevitable for any ocean baring planet. I guess will know soon enough should we detect oxygen rich small exo-planets like Earth.

      Assuming the Universe is filled with copious "Earths", it's not a guerantee that life will be intelligent. And for the sake of argument, assuming the natives are intelligent, their motives most likely would be completely different than anything we could imagine. Something akin to comparing Humans and Dolphins. Both very intelligent, yet with completely separate ambitions in how they live their lives. Quite possibly, Humans are the only intelligent species looking up and beyond the confines of our own Planet. That may explain the Fermi paradox. We're the only living creatures that cares of such things!

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    47. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      You cannot use quantum entanglement to transmit information. You can use it to make two people have secret shared data. You can't control at all what this shared data is. The analogy that may help would be if Alice and Bob have a magic pair of coins, and it is guaranteed that if they both flip them at the same time, both coins will turn up heads or both coins will turn up tails. They cannot use this to transmit information to each other. As to your claim that "Radio transmissions are WEAK, they're probably swallowed by the outer rim of the solar system"- there's no special barrier at the end of the solar system. If there were, we'd see it blocking radio astronomy.

    48. Re:This is frightening by Evtim · · Score: 2

      You know what's even more frightening? Your post led me to dig a bit into the Fermi paradox and following one link or another I arrived at the commemoration event [35th anniversary of the Wow! signal] at Aresibo. Wiki reads:

      In 2012, on the 35th anniversary of the Wow! signal, Arecibo Observatory beamed a response from humanity, containing 10,000 Twitter messages, in the direction from which the signal originated.[13][14] In the response, Arecibo scientists have attempted to increase the chances of intelligent life receiving and decoding the celebrity videos and crowd-sourced Tweets by attaching a repeating sequence header to each message that will let the recipient know that the messages are intentional and from another intelligent life form.[14]

      Imagine if the aliens actually get that signal! Celebrity videos? Tweets? I can just imagine the response "Well, obviously there is NO intelligent life on that planet, so we can use it to test our fully armed and operational battle station. Fire at will, commander!"

    49. Re: This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What if the filter is just time. what if our poisoning in the universe is such that we are the first civilisiation within earshot (given speed of light delay) to advance enough to detect or transmit signals that could be detected.

    50. Re:This is frightening by shadowofwind · · Score: 1

      Or maybe the galaxy is teeming with life, but broadcast radio is a very brief, primitive technology, and ringworlds and Dyson spheres are a real bitch to build?

      I don't think that most people really grasp how far apart things are, and how inappropriate it is to think of space is if its a gigantic ocean.

      I think there are still frontiers, but 'crossing space' is not a right way to think about them.

    51. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      A good point about the radio waves. But having skimmed through the article on stellar uplifting, though, it leaves me with the impression it's as technologically absurd as Dyson spheres and ringworlds -- technically it may be possible to overcome the technological barriers, but realistically it seems very unlikely to me. Sorry for just saying "lol", which certainly isn't a sufficient response, but these megaconstructions have always struck me as wildly implausible - they can make for science fiction but to me both the timescale and the resources necessary to undertake them make them look a lot less appealling than they might at first sight.

    52. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      Yes, I agree; I didn't consider that and should have.

    53. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      No other planet in our solar system is producing such signals.

      Every planet with a magnetosphere generates radio signals. Jupiter's and Saturn's emissions, for example, are much stronger than the combined radio output of Earth's magnetosphere and mankind.

    54. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      The problem here is sheer scale. Radio dissipates, so to communicate you have to tightly focus a beam, which then means you have to choose a target. (Which you may also miss, given how far the beam has to travel before it gets there, but let's assume that that won't happen since it's controllable.) How do you know that target has life? While I certainly expect there to be plenty of life in the galaxy, the galaxy is big. No matter how common life is, our kind of life is going to be spread relatively sparsely. Most places you target a beam at are very likely not to have a civilisation that is capable of receiving and happens to be listening.

      The same goes for probes. For someone to stumble across, say, Voyager 2 they would have to somehow have interstellar flight (which I also think is a myth, much as that depresses me) and happen to be right in our vicinity anyway, probably to investigate what on Earth is causing all these weird radio signals and low-quality TV. That's going to be the case for hundreds of thousands of years -- far longer than our civilisation will be around.

      I agree about "prime directives". I doubt all that many races would bother. I'm pretty sure that we wouldn't - perhaps officially we'd have something, but it would be ignored at will.

    55. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      All good points.

    56. Re: This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      Well, it's certainly possible. I wouldn't want to put numbers on it, but we certainly could have popped up early enough that the wavefront of alien radio hasn't yet reached us. The benefit of this being true would be how good it would be when alien signals suddenly washed over us - that would be an exciting day...

    57. Re:This is frightening by rich_hudds · · Score: 1

      Surely you'd expect there to be lots of civilisations at different stages, not just one that is ignoring us and hiding.

      The idea that there are only two civilisations in the universe is far less likely than there being just one in my opinion.

      Also, although it is probably unwise to extrapolate too much from ourselves, any civilisation is likely to be made up of beings that either evolved via natural selection, or were designed by beings that evolved. As such they are likely to have a sense of morality, as we do, and to be interested in the welfare of other creatures, as we are.

      I don't think a civilisation that could mine stars would just hide from everyone else.

    58. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think that the whole concept of Dyson sphere is wrong. Civilization, advanced enough, would create energy from vacuum and try to move AWAY from the star or any other uncontrolled source of energy (e.g. solar flares, etc).

      Maksim

    59. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > You would expect to see evidence of advanced civilizations, if not from their engineering works than from deliberate attempts to be noticed

      Jeez, make up your mind. We've been doing stuff to make the Earth noticeably different from outside - global warming - and mostly people no want to stop it.

    60. Re:This is frightening by ihtoit · · Score: 1

      Dyson structures have been shown elsewhere to be mechanically impractical purely due to the amount of material they'd need. A single fully enclosed, solid Dyson sphere surrounding a G2V star such as our Sun, at the outer edge of the Goldilocks zone (around 94 million miles from the centre of the star) and just nine feet thick would require the complete disassembly of all four inner planets (Mercury, Venus and Earth and Mars and all associated satellites, shepherd asteroids and Lagrangian objects), the entire asteroid belt, and all the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. The amount of energy that would be required to counter any drift during and post construction would be immense (say bye bye to Jupiter, being the second largest and ready source of hydrogen available locally), and what are you going to use for atmosphere? Our envelope wouldn't be near enough, unless you can learn to cope with 1/640millionth of a bar pressure. That's right, you'd have to completely convert the entire gas content of TWO G2V white dwarf stars (two of our SUNS!) to oxygen and nitrogen and pump it in. Which brings another couple problems: how are you going to contain a gas envelope that just wants to fall into the Sun? And having solved that problem (you have, right?), how are you going to cope with 80 miles of gas pressing out against nine feet of iron and nickel? You'll need another couple planets' worth of iron just to reinforce the sphere!

      Oh yeah, and water might become a bit on the scarce side as well; the entire content of our oceans and polar caps, rivers and lakes would form a solid ice ball only 360 miles wide. That wouldn't be enough to form a ground frost on the inside of the sphere.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
    61. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, I do think so.
      We still use knifes after 10.000 years.
      We still use clothes after 25.000 years.
      We still use ships after 5.000 years.
      We still use writing after 5.000 years.

    62. Re:This is frightening by ihtoit · · Score: 1

      Dyson's original idea was to build a cloud of satellites. Stuart Armstrong expanded on this and conceived a construction timescale on the order of *less than a Century* from striking ground on Mercury to lifting the last segment from Venus to orbit.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
    63. Re:This is frightening by ihtoit · · Score: 1

      not so long ago (1990, in fact), Carl Sagan persuaded the Voyager team to look back and take a photo montage of the solar system. Earth appeared as a pale blue dot, yet smaller than a single pixel. While still within the terrestrial sphere of influence in the 1970's, Voyager's instruments were turned back toward Earth, and while "some" chemical signatures were recognised (water and oxygen), the consensus was that it could not be confirmed whether there was in fact life on the planet. If we couldn't confirm life on a planet where we knew for a fact there *was* life, from a distance of less than five million miles, then what hope do you think we have of detecting anything smaller than a Jupiter-mass blob orbiting a star fifty light years away or determining what a rock orbiting Epsilon Eridani (there are two known; one at least is a gas giant about five to eight times the mass of Jupiter) is made of?

      BTW, the 1936 Olympics has now been shooting in every direction through space for 77 years and change. Counting M-type cool dwarf stars, that signal has probably crossed over eight thousand star systems, and it will continue outward forever.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
    64. Re:This is frightening by swillden · · Score: 2

      As such they are likely to have a sense of morality, as we do, and to be interested in the welfare of other creatures, as we are.

      So they would follow the Prime Directive and avoid letting us know about them, except when a randy captain decides to come and have sex with our women.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    65. Re:This is frightening by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

      You are thinking too small. Imagine some kind of extremely large mesh that could vary its transparency. Place it near a star and pulse out prime numbers. Visible for millions of light years. Of course we have no idea what technologies will be available to send such a cosmic message, but surely they do exist.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    66. Re:This is frightening by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

      No, what we are both talking about is considering the distances involved and the time-scale Earth would of already been colonised thousands of times over, millions of years before humans ever evolved, if that was even remotely possible. there are many many many planets that would of been hospitable about 10 billion years ago, at like 20-40 year by travel at speeds we have already mastered. We could send probes/colonization ships to them theoretically with the tech we have right now. Given all we know, they should already be about 6 billions years more advanced than we are, and they just apparently never colonised any planets, were never interested to see if their immediate neighbours had life on them, etc. And a single civilization just did not ever do any of these things, but hundreds or thousands of different unique ones. Billions if we go a little further out.

      Considering the time-scale, and the distances, even a single seed planet on a single galaxy could of easily colonised every single planet on every galaxy.
      Not having done so is like no animals, plants, insects or humans just ever making it over to the Americas. Just because, we just did not do it.

      The only reasonable argument against this is that life on Earth has been evolving for around 9 billions years, and was seeded here by asteroids shortly after it became habitable. The idea being is that just now (give or take a few million year) advanced human like species are popping up all around the universe, and they all just started/will start soon/started not long ago exploring the galaxy.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    67. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think it's just as likely that once we build enough self-replicating machines to build a Dyson sphere, they start evolving on their own and eat us up, and a lot of the stars around us. That's the dark matter cloud.

      Those civilizations that realize that stop expanding, build an enormous matrix, and live inside their computers until they forget how to maintain the matrix they live inside of, and the thing burns out.

    68. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're assuming our piddling little broadcasts survive after a 70 light year dissipation.

      Might be doable with microwave lasers at insane power levels though.

    69. Re:This is frightening by DahGhostfacedFiddlah · · Score: 1

      I think the strongest candidates for the Great Filter are Life originating, Multi-cellular Life evolving, Intelligent Life evolving, and the existence of an environment that remains continually-habitable for 4 billion years.

      For all of the filtration events in the past that weren't serious, I can't see any evidence that these four aren't doozies. I certainly lean towards the filtration of the past explaining our solitude, rather than a filtration in the future.

    70. Re:This is frightening by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      A life form that achieves higher intelligence is almost certain to destroy itself before it reaches any serious level of advancement.

      If you want to find alien civilizations, don't bother searching for radio signals. Look for small gamma bursts like the ones you'd typically see from nuclear and other high energy explosions.

      --
      ~X~
    71. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would one need a Dyson sphere, however? Technology brings with in an increase in lifespan, and a concomitent need to invest more energy in one's offspring. Neither is conducive to population growth. In fact, population in the developed world is falling now, or would be without constant immigration. There's no reason to suppose any future society is going to be so desperately short of planetary space that they'd need to move into a cloud of orbitally unstable satellites. The Dyson sphere is a solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

    72. Re:This is frightening by doom · · Score: 1

      I am not sure why you guys keep going on about Dyson spheres. Dyson's original concept was a guess that every civilization expands to the point where it needs all the radiation emitted by it's sun, and hence it does something to capture it all (literally building a fixed sphere around it isn't actually necessary). The point then is that rather than looking for civilizations blasting radio waves everywhere, you might look for places where the emitted radiation has been shifted down into the infrared, because everything gets used besides the waste heat.

      Dyson spheres are (a) not particularly absurd-- unlike say faster-than-light interstellar travel-- and (b) not particularly easy to identify.

      (And by the way... just because someone sounds Very Serious and Skeptical and puts on a debunker's sneer does not at all mean they know what they're talking about.)

    73. Re:This is frightening by D2Deek · · Score: 1

      You don't have to build a fully-enclosed Dyson sphere to get vast benefits from stellar engineering. "Simply" putting up a fleet of steerable mirrors (a Dyson swarm) in solar orbit is fantastically useful all by itself, but it also gives you enough energy to make more of them, which in turn gives you enough power to fully surround, if not enclose, the star...which lets you harness its entire output as you like.

      Everyone gets hung up on that one episode of Star Trek, but stellar engineering really does get more practical the more you do it.

    74. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In short, the experiment started with biochemicals, applied chemical processes, and produced other biochemicals. Congratulations.

      Nothing remotely like evolution or abiogenesis occurred.

    75. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's been playing too much Mass Effect; he's worried about the Reavers coming to "Filter" us out.

      I would think that if a civilization existed for hundreds of millions of years or even billions of years they'd have developed something better than radio communication, so maybe we're just not listening using the right technology. Perhaps their laughing at us across their Bose-Einstein Condesated Hydrophotonic Gigaspleens at our quaint use of radio wave technology.

    76. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A life form that achieves higher intelligence is almost certain to destroy itself before it reaches any serious level of advancement.

      Just stating such a conclusion doesn't make it so.

    77. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's a difference between seeing your alphabet soup produce the word "cat" and seeing your alphabet soup program itself to assimilate the bowl, the table, the chairs, the kitchen, in order to create an vessel to being making new cans of soup -- just by using the letters that pop up in the soup. Those experiments and your post show no appreciation for the extreme complexity of a functional DNA strand.

    78. Re:This is frightening by khallow · · Score: 1

      That depends on what your society is doing. If it's running a Solar System-wide computing system or shipping a lot of stuff between stars at a significant fraction of the speed of light, it will need some juice.

    79. Re:This is frightening by steelfood · · Score: 1

      pretending it doesn't won't make it go away.

      One of the biggest issues is that we don't even have ballpark numbers for what the parameters for this should be. We have some of the parameters figured out. But 1) they're based on analysis on our own history and 2) you and people who think like you are not taking some very crucial bits into account.

      I want to challenge one of your positions that you've mostly glossed over, and that is that once a civilization has expanded beyond its home planet, its years of existence automatically increases significantly. First of all, what is significant? One order of magnitude? Two orders? Human civilization (proper civilization) has existed for around 10K years. Two orders of magnitude puts it at 1M years. That's a drop in the bucket compared to the 14-18B years (minus 15 million) of the livable universe. What are the chances of multiple civilizations surviving for ~1M years meeting? What are the chances of them continuing to survive past the point when they meet? The assumption of one or two orders of magnitude is predicated on the civilization not immediately being wiped out by some neighboring advanced civilization.

      Now, I'm going to challenge that two orders of magnitude statement a little further. Look at human migration out of Africa as an example. The genetic diversity of all the humans in the rest of the world pales in comparison to the diversity of the population currently in Africa. All it takes is for one bad virus (like an airborne ebola with a two week incubation period), and the only people left on this planet will be living in Africa. Do you really think this won't be the case for when humans move off the third rock? I'm going to posit that genetic diversity among the populartion of any theoretical interstellar colonies will be significantly less than the diversity found outside of Africa now, by about the same order. Those settlements are going to be genetically fragile in the long run. In fact, I posit that as a space-faring civilization continues to age, its overall genetic diversity, irrespective of whether the home planet remains habitable or not, will continue to decline. That's assuming natural genetic aging and excluding artificial factors like war.

      Eventually, that civilization will utterly cease to exist, leaving behind dead, non-communicating artifacts that will also inevitably cease to be. Just think, we're digging up all these dinosaur bones right now. In a hundred million years, when humans are not around, what will there be left for that next intelligent species to discover?

      Therefore, I think one order of magnitude would be a more realistic number than two for the increased lifetime of a civilization that's reached space. For us, that might be somewhere around 2-500K years should it happen.

      See, most people think once humans are able to colonize other planets, we're set, humanity as a race somehow becomes immortal. I think, just as civilizations rise and fall, complex life forms rise and fall. There is no immortality, be it personal or societal. It is merely wishful thinking to believe otherwise.

      So the fact that we're not meeting other intelligent species out there would not be too surprising. The chances of two space-faring civilizations arising at almost precisely the same time (because in universal time scales, a 100K-year difference is less than a blink of an eye) are almost nil.

      If anything, if we ever end up on other planets, we might eventually find some remnants of other space-faring civilizations past. The remnants may, and necessarily at that, be superior to humanity's then-present technology. But we most likely won't find any living remnants. And to make matters worse, we won't find anything on any homeworld(s), because if humans are any indication, they'd have stripped their world bare before leaving it. That is, assuming that their civilization's remains haven't completely decomposed before we get to it. But chances are, I think we'll see scars at worse, like

      --
      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
    80. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      Well, in response to this:

      a) I'm a bit ashamed of the reply I gave above. While I might agree with my main points, it wasn't too well thought out and comes across as smug and opinionated
      b) I still feel Dyson spheres are wildly implausible, no matter how you try and redefine them
      c) I feel faster than light travel is at least as implausible as Dyson spheres, so there's definitely no argument with me on that one
      d) I don't really know what I'm talking about on this exact topic, no, but I'd say no less than most others on Slashdot. And in cosmology in general there are certainly others on Slashdot as well trained as I, but the numbers are relatively limited (simply because there aren't *that* many of us on here). If I look like I've been trying to be Very Serious and Sceptical or place myself as an all-knowing teacher above inferiors then you've got my full apologies because that's not at all how I want to present myself

    81. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Our own civilization went from spark gap generators to low power ultra-wideband and fiber optic technology within a century.

      For communications, yes, but we're still sending massive amounts of radio waves into space with things like radar and those have always been higher power than radio waves used for communication, because radar suffers from an r^4 spreading loss when dealing with point reflectors like airplanes.

    82. Re:This is frightening by MooseTick · · Score: 1

      "But the problem is what this leads to: it means that out of the civilizations, none of them are trying anything on a large scale, not even the few more ambitious ones."

      What if a more advanced civilization learned that to achieve immortality or whatever it is they want, that you go small instead of large. The learn to download their brain into a computer and live in there. There may then be no need for insane amount of power from a Dyson sphere. They may exist in ships the size of an m&m, tooling around the universe undetected. Also, if humans could be shrunk to that size and not require food, water, etc, we could use much less resources and potentially travel easier and last longer as a whole.

    83. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually this is wrong. The radar pulses used for things like asteroid mapping and other probes would travel great distances because they are powerful and directed in a somewhat collimated beam by approximate parabolic radio dishes... However they would just be pulses, not encoded information and are of short duration and not omni-directional.

    84. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm more concerned that evidence will show that we're late to the party and that Life, the Universe and Everything has already mostly come and gone. If I extrapolate correctly, the article says there was, effectively, a Goldilocks era. Billions of years ago, life would have been more common and widespread. Billions of years later, all that life has already destroyed itself or run its course. Coming in on the tail end of everything, maybe we don't detect anything because all (or most) civilizations are gone. We'll expand and explore and find artifacts and ruins only to decipher them as, "Anyone reading this? Yeah, you're already doomed."

    85. Re:This is frightening by ihtoit · · Score: 1

      yep, Dyson actually referred to a shell of discrete segments rather than a solid sphere, Armstrong laid a (very feasible, as it goes) construction timetable. A swarm could be built using the mass of Mercury in about forty years according to that, and Venus follows (OK it's bigger and the numbers might get confusing) over the next ten.

      --
      Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
    86. Re:This is frightening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Halo-style ringworlds make some amount of sense. Ringworld-style ringworlds require impossibly strong materials and are unstable anyway.

      There's hardly a reason to build a Halo unless you want to fire the phase pulse generators and destroy all life in the galaxy, though. It's expensive to build compared to just building some space elevators on a planet.

    87. Re:This is frightening by doom · · Score: 1

      Well, okay... but:

      I still feel Dyson spheres are wildly implausible, no matter how you try and redefine them ... I feel faster than light travel is at least as implausible as Dyson spheres,

      What do your feelings have to do with the issue? One idea violates known physics, and the other is just a massive engineering project-- and that project starts seeming more plausible when you realize it's doable in small stages, e.g. one way you get to a "Dyson sphere" is you start out with a few orbiting solar collectors beaming power to where you need it. If that works for you, you'd build more, right? And if you keep doing that for a hundred years, where would you end up?

    88. Re:This is frightening by boristhespider · · Score: 1

      "And if you keep doing that for a hundred years, where would you end up?"

      In the middle of a dire shortage of energy and resources.

      I think this post and its replies are becoming bigger than they deserve to be... Of course a Dyson sphere is actually more plausible than faster-than-light travel, and by an extremely considerable margin. That doesn't make it plausible, however, and I personally - and this is obviously just a personal opinion - think that no culture would, or could, build one. It seems prohibitively expensive, and it would be very unstable and require constant maintanence. It would also become quite severely irradiated shortly after it was constructed, and since it would be emitting almost constantly in the IR (both back in and to the outside universe) would be slowly cooking the inside of it. Etc. etc. etc.

      Obviously you're right; Dyson spheres present what I personally believe is an insurmountable problem to engineering, resource management, resource collection, maintenance, and so forth, but they're still basically problems of engineering and resources, not necessarily physics. Faster-than-light travel, on the other hand, presents what is as certain as we can be an insurmountable physical problem, and all the clever solutions of GR (such as maximally-extended Schwarzschilds providing wormholes, or Alcubierre-type distortions of spacetime) can't help that, because so far as I'm aware, none of them are actually physical. If nothing else, building wormholes out of Schwarzschild involves assuming that the entire universe is, always has been, and always will be, a single maximally-extended Schwarzschild (which is self-evidently false); a realistic Penrose diagram of a real black hole looks very different indeed. Meanwhile, getting FTL from an Alcubierre-type solution involves your ship being a "test mass" (so having no influence on the geometry), and infinitely far from any other gravitating source, neither of which is plausible. Compounding this, both the wormhole and Alcubierre solutions require basically the judicious use of something that would act as a dark energy, but under our control. Which is even less plausible.

      So of course you're right. I dont' feel either is realistic, and I do feel that specifically looking for Dyson spheres in preference to simply looking for radio emissions, is probably not going to be helpful. (Furthermore, curiously IR-hot systems that are invisible in visible and higher will be picked up anyway, and will be studied more closely. We have a lot of surveys going on in the IR; it's far more useful than visible.) As you say, this is my own feelings, but ultimately (if you can overlook the unpleasant way I put some of them forward here, which I apologise for) they are at least founded on a level of reason. Of course that reason can be wrong, and can be challenged. I just think I'm right. ;)

    89. Re:This is frightening by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      Doesn't really work. Even if you go to a small scale and download into very small computers, you can still do more with a larger computer. You can always do more with more computing power.

  13. Problem by StripedCow · · Score: 1

    The problem with theories of extra-terrestrial life is: the probability of us being here is 1, regardless of the a-priori probability of life being created on this planet.

    Here's a nice way to look at it.

    Consider the formation of the first life-generating molecules, like DNA, or the first ribosomes. You can compare the corresponding probability (i.e., of those molecules actually forming) to the following situation. Assume you have a grid of infinite times infinite squares (our analogy of the universe). Each square is, randomly, either black or white.

    In some regions of the grid, you may see certain patterns. For example, in some pieces of this universe, you will see the complete work of Shakespeare written in Helvetica 16pt. (In other regions, you may see a dithered version of our beloved goatse picture.)

    Now what is the probability of a 1,000x1,000 patch at a given position to be completely black? Well, 2^1,000,000, a rather big number. Any other pattern in that 1,000x1,000 patch would have the same probability. What is the average manhattan distance between such blocks? (Left as an exercise for the reader).

    If, in this thought-experiment, a molecular structure that can bootstrap life corresponds to an NxN structure on a grid, you can compute the distance between these life-generators. And you will find rather large numbers.

    The lesson is of course to keep those numbers in mind the next time you expect life on some planet with seemingly earthlike properties.

    --
    If Pandora's box is destined to be opened, *I* want to be the one to open it.
    1. Re:Problem by StripedCow · · Score: 1

      2^1,000,000 should of course been 2^-1,000,000, a rather small number.

      Another question: the example was for a 2-dimensional universe; will the average distance between prescribed NxN patterns increase or decrease with increasing dimensionality?

      --
      If Pandora's box is destined to be opened, *I* want to be the one to open it.
    2. Re:Problem by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      One could look at it this way -- maybe there are billions of planets in the goldilocks zone, with liquid water, and no life whatsoever. This could be good news, in a way. The less good news is that whatever microbes, plants, animals, we need we'll have to take with us or do without.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    3. Re:Problem by boristhespider · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That would be true regardless of whether there was life on other planets or not. No matter how closely those planets resembled Earth, they're not Earth, and while they *might* provide us with every vitamin and protein we need it does seem somewhat unlikely...

    4. Re:Problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem with this reasoning is you are assume there is only one solution, we don't know how many solutions there are, also its not random, its driven by random mutations just as the flow of a river is driven by the random vibrations of the water molecules, the environment pushes back against the randomness in a non random way. To modify your analogy, each 1,000x1,000 patch would be flipping randomly through different combinations until a pattern was generated that the environment allowed to survive.

  14. All I know by onyxruby · · Score: 1

    If we ever meet any life that evolved from back then we shall microbes to them as microbes are to us. A curiosity to be studied, and shelved, dissected and put on display.

    1. Re:All I know by femtobyte · · Score: 4, Informative

      Evolution doesn't have an inevitable "upward" direction. Today's microbes are every bit as "evolved" as we are from Earth's first inhabitants. So far, humans are no more than an evolutionary blip --- perhaps one that briefly flourishes, then vanishes away with nary a trace. Given billions of more years, evolution may simply produce a differently-colored cockroach, rather than a transcendent race of super-beings.

    2. Re:All I know by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 4, Funny

      We just killed a 500 year old clam. Now you want to kill a 5 billion year old microbe? Just for the fun of studying it? Whats wrong with you?

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    3. Re:All I know by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

      Those microbes are my ancestors, you insensitive clod!

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    4. Re:All I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You still have to balance out rarity with capability, though. A billion planets could evolve cockroaches, but all that gets you is a billion planets with cockroaches on them. Whereas it only takes one planet evolving a race of transcendent superbeings to change everything.

    5. Re:All I know by deathcloset · · Score: 1

      Energy utilization, information transmission and matter transformation define the scalar value with which evolution of a life form may be measured. Thus we can actually ascribe or define an "upward" or "increasing" direction.

      We utilize more energy than any other life form.

      We transmit (store/retrieve/communicate) information in gargantuan quantities (the electrons participating in the internet have a measurable combined weight at any given moment, there are so many of them/so much of it). Other life forms pretty much just use DNA/RNA to transmit their information, and few of them communicate with more than chemical markers.

      We transform matter on a planetary scale, rivaling that of flora: from space I think we look like coral.

      We are hella evolved, and yes, if the stars are where we must go to continue to live and flourish, then I would argue that evolution - at least in a gravitational field - has a definite direction, and that direction is up!

      Trees, man.

      Upward!

      But truly, the proper preposition is probably, "forward".

      I'm just splitting hairs again ;) - you are actually right that there is no teleological aspect to evolution and so no 'direction' - but in a certain sense, from a certain perspective, there clearly is a vector.

  15. Simple life perhaps... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Although I find it unlikely given only several million years. Those planets have to cool.

    Certainly not complex life, complex life requires a hell of a lot of time

  16. How about water... now? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My understanding is that as of very recently there was no scientific consensus on how Earth itself got its water... or so said a Discovery Channel presentation of the history of the Earth which otherwise seemed like mainline science (molten Earth, iced Earth, evolution, etc.).

    Can someone offer an overview of the current hypothesis/consensus?

  17. Just my opinion by Adult+film+producer · · Score: 1

    But I've always figured self-replication was as common in the universe as stalagmites or simple carbon isomers. There's nothing really special about it... it just happens.

    1. Re:Just my opinion by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 5, Funny
      I found this in Panda's Thumb:

      I don’t know about you evilutionists. But to me, these stalactites and stalagmites look very much designed. Only dogmatic Darwin worshipers could be dumb enough to believe that these stalactites and stalagmites would know where to start growing so that eventually meet at a point, conjoin, become a pillar and hold the roof of the cave up.

      There is symmetry in the formations, symmetry means information, symmetry means reduction in disorder, reduction in disorder is reduction in entropy and entropy can not be reduced by random naturalistic mechanistic processes. If these formations are “natural” then they violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The pathetic inability of the theory of evolution to account for the cave formations completely disproves any credibility the Big Bang Theory might have. It stretches the credulity of the American Public, 62% of whom don’t believe evolution anyway, that these scientists would confidently see amino acids and methane in planets and moons in the sky, when they cant see that mud-to-stalactite evolution is impossible.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    2. Re:Just my opinion by Adult+film+producer · · Score: 1

      They look as designed as the calcium build up in my shower..

    3. Re:Just my opinion by Bucc5062 · · Score: 1

      Wait what? Mud dripping down from a ceiling eventually builds a pile of mud that eventually meets the mud dripping down from the ceiling and this is evidence of intelligent design and the reduction of entropy?

      Had I only known before I accepted physics, geology and evolution...(sigh).

      If there are more evolved beings out there observing us, I feel they may just, at times, shake their heads (what ever it may be). I know I do.

      --
      Life is a great ride, the vehicle doesn't matter
    4. Re:Just my opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You should sue whoever's designing that.

    5. Re:Just my opinion by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

      It was a very snarky posting there. I had chopped off the bottom that gave away the game. Sorry.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    6. Re:Just my opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Woosh

    7. Re:Just my opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      judging from his screen name, that's not calcium.

    8. Re:Just my opinion by Nimey · · Score: 1

      Therefore time cube.

      --
      Hail Eris, full of mischief...

      E pluribus sanguinem
    9. Re:Just my opinion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What's that loud noise? Oh, right, it's the wooshing sound of you missing a joke.

  18. I call hogwash by Mister+Liberty · · Score: 0

    Even as recent as 165 years ago a temperature of '273 Kelvin' did not exist.

  19. Too little time... by Evil+Pete · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This (a goldilocks era) is a really interesting idea which seems obvious now that someone has brought it up. But it would be brief. Think of it this way, for millions of years the cosmic glow would be hot, too hot. Planets form, create magma oceans ... still too hot. Finally, the big bang glow cools to around 300K, but the Earth is likely still a magma ocean, or is still hot from trying to be in equilibrium with a hot universe plus internal heat from all those radioactives. Life aronse on Earth fairly rapidly, but it is unlikely that it took just a few million years. Even if it did arise on one of these worlds, it took billions for multicellularity to arise on Earth. After the brief goldilocks era what then? The sky would continue cooling, the worlds that were desirable places for new life would freeze, the ones that were too hot might now be suitable for life. In the end there would be little benefit. But there would still be planets around where life could start, though it might be complicated and very dangerous at this time.

    --
    Bitter and proud of it.
    1. Re:Too little time... by Kuroji · · Score: 1, Informative

      Don't be silly. At that point in time there were no planets at all -- hydrogen was about the only thing in the universe, until stars started burning hot and fast to put heavier elements into the universe.

      This article is pointless conjecture. Conditions for life as we know it could not have possibly existed, due to a lack of pressure, gravity and a planet to live on, materials required to put anything together, etc. The only thing that this shows is that it was warm enough for life, while utterly disregarding the rest; it's like saying that you have an oven that's heated up to 350 degrees, so there should be a cake in there, without putting any of the ingredients into the oven. Including a pan for the cake.

    2. Re:Too little time... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's a pretty large assumption to make, given our knowledge of planetary formation was JUST turned on its ear earlier this month.

      If a super-giant hydrogen star can form from the soup, so can a hydrogen rich gas giant. In the absence of a rocky neucleating core, an aggregating water droplet could also work if large enough, and rate of aggregation exceeded evaporation. There could we'll have been many "rogue" water and gas worlds lit by the CBR, and or, free floating in stellar nurseries, being lit by a combination of the CBR and the strongly reyliegh scattered light from the nearby ultramassive stars.

    3. Re:Too little time... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      except that the expanding vacuum theory tells you that your hot magma big bang never happened. try keeping up with cosmology for a change.

    4. Re:Too little time... by Aristos+Mazer · · Score: 2

      Um... did you read the article? Search for this sentence: "The first is the question of whether planets could have formed at all at this stage of the universe." and then keep reading from there. tl;dr? There would likely have been plenty of time and resources for planet formation.

      I'll just point out that this "pointless conjecture" comes from a scientist who has contributed more to our understanding of the universe than most people posting on this thread.

    5. Re:Too little time... by wvmarle · · Score: 2

      TFS talks about stars existing, and burning up (producing all kinds of heavier elements in the process) in just 3 mln years. If so, just 10 mln years after the Big Bang there would have been all kinds of elements present in the universe.

    6. Re:Too little time... by Evil+Pete · · Score: 1

      Uh ... you do understand that the expanding universe does not affect condensed matter like stars and planets don't you? Supergiant stars could form even at this stage, and burning through their fuel at a luminosity depending on something like the fourth power of the mass then it wont take long, a million years say before bang .. supuernova and a lot of heavy elements. Try to keep up with real physics not comic books.

      --
      Bitter and proud of it.
  20. arrogance of the humans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The real paradox is why people still think we should look for impossible things.

    The reality is .... things are what we never would have dreamt of. It's not looking for the impossbility - but looking for what actually exists - and that more than likely is something we have never thought of in our puny little simian brains.

  21. mod parent up! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This!

  22. Warm and dark by FridayBob · · Score: 4, Interesting

    That period in the history of our universe may have been warm, but I imagine that, at the time, the average hospitable planetary surface would have been pretty dark. After all, if the Goldilocks zone is what you get without having a nearby star at all, then having a star nearby would make things too hot. So, any planetary surface suitable for life to evolve on would have been a necessarily dark place.

    An unfortunate consequence of this warm universe is that it will have taken longer for planetary bodies to cool down after their formation. The question is, would even a Mars-sized body have have enough time to form and cool down so that standing water could have existed on its surface during this Goldilocks era? Somehow, I doubt it.

    As the background temperature cooled to below the freezing point of water, the habitable volume of the universe suddenly became restricted to the areas around stars. These early stellar Goldilocks zones will initially have been huge, but would soon become much smaller. And as they became smaller, they also became more brightly lit.

    1. Re:Warm and dark by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      That argument presupposes that photosynthetic life is necessary.
      It isn't.

      Autochemotrophic life is just as suitable, and more likely to rule the roost in such an environment, especially with hot, volcanically active cores inside such worlds coughing up energy rich mineral food supplies.

      For panspermia to work, we don't need multicellular organisms. Single celled, but robust organisms work just as well.

      Since the background radiation would be hot enough to keep water wet even in deep space, dense enough nebular gas clouds would present an ideal place. Being a stellar nursery, there would be light, being diffused though dense clouds of water vapor would make the light into a spread out luminous glow all over the place, and short on the life destroying UV spectra, while being moist and interspersed with other "heavy" particles from star deaths preceeding the formation of these nebulae.

      Medium to large aggregations of warm water and dust would make excellent petri dishes. Remember, the universe was physically much smaller, and the vacuum of space much less vacuous.

    2. Re:Warm and dark by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Somehow I doubt it

      The article discusses this point. You should read the argument and then actually do your own computations before raising doubts.

    3. Re:Warm and dark by wvmarle · · Score: 1

      That period in the history of our universe may have been warm, but I imagine that, at the time, the average hospitable planetary surface would have been pretty dark. After all, if the Goldilocks zone is what you get without having a nearby star at all, then having a star nearby would make things too hot. So, any planetary surface suitable for life to evolve on would have been a necessarily dark place.

      And I thought planets normally form in conjunction with stars, out of the disk of dust around them? Or are there different theories on the formation of planets, specifically in that period? Also while there were heavier elements (needed to form solid rocks, not just life), there wasn't very much of such material.

    4. Re:Warm and dark by FridayBob · · Score: 1

      And I thought planets normally form in conjunction with stars, out of the disk of dust around them? ...

      Perhaps, but not necessarily. Studies published earlier this year about of microlensing events seen by the Kepler space telescope suggest that there may be trillions of rogue planets drifting between the stars of our galaxy alone. Did they all originally form around stars? Maybe, but regardless, if they exist now then why could there not have been at least a fraction of these bodies present during the Goldilocks era?

      ... Also while there were heavier elements (needed to form solid rocks, not just life), there wasn't very much of such material.

      Very true, and I've also heard it said that with even more of the stuff available in the far future, planet formation should become even more common than it is now. But TFA is based on the premise that there should already have been enough heavy elements around at the time to form planets at least occasionally (remember, even the 15 million-year-old universe was an awfully big place where the law of large numbers already applied).

    5. Re:Warm and dark by wvmarle · · Score: 1

      I know it was very big already :) Hard to really imagine those things as both the space and time aspects are so far from normal human perspectives. These time spans are just so vast... 15 million years... 4.6 billion years... 13 billion years... compared to our typical lifespan of maybe 80 years...

    6. Re:Warm and dark by bluegutang · · Score: 1

      Well then, so life could have evolved slightly later, perhaps when CMB temperature was around 200K and the planetary body's heat led to an extra 100K of temperature. I'm making up numbers here, but there must be a point where "too hot" becomes "too cold", and at this point the temperature is right for life (as we know it).

  23. Well known filter is currently active by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The following is nothing new, but few people want to face up to what it really means for us. The 6th Mass Extinction is well under way, and it has nothing to do with cuddly pandas and (less cuddly) tigers and rhinos disappearing. It's the microscopic life such as oceanic biota, nearly all of it unseen by most people, that's disappearing at a devastating pace like nothing that's ever happened before on this planet.

    We can live without the top-end mammals that make the extinction news on the TV. We can't live without the microbiota. We are not independent of them, they keep the biosphere running and our crops producing, and without the biosphere we are no more.

    The collapse of biodiversity is, on geological scales, vertically downwards, and at some point it simply hits the zero axis. It could happen even more suddenly if a tipping point is reached, because species are inter-dependent. The current decline is not the normal sort of gradually falling curve as seen in the past 5 extinctions. On the biodiversity graph, this event is an abrupt termination of all life. You can't argue with the biodiversity curve.

    We don't really need more Great Filter theories. This one is not a theory, it's measured, and it's quite enough all by itself.

    1. Re:Well known filter is currently active by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The 6th mass extintion, or as current game developers would call it, streamlining.

    2. Re:Well known filter is currently active by abies · · Score: 1

      You can't argue with the biodiversity curve.

      We don't really need more Great Filter theories. This one is not a theory, it's measured, and it's quite enough all by itself.

      I think that sufficiently evolved civilisation CAN argue with biodiversity curve. Jurrassic park style. Clone extinct organisms and breed them. Use DNA manipulation to create superior species to fill out niches left by extinction.
      I'm not saying that we will manage to do that - but I really doubt that if you take million our-level civilisations each of the would fail. I think that filter is somewhere earlier - in my opinion it is self-replicating DNA-like molecules. Jump between bit of chemistry and the replicating-programs-encoded-as-molecules.

    3. Re:Well known filter is currently active by doom · · Score: 2

      The first thing everyone *used* to say to the Fermi Paradox is "maybe they all blow themselves up in nuclear wars".

      This kind of remark is very parochial and a clear sign of Not Getting It.

      Maybe 99% of them blow themselves up. Maybe another 99% of the ones that slip through that create an eco-catastrophe. Maybe another 99% get nailed by something else we don't know about.

      These factors all get applied to a *huge* starting number, they cut the result way down but they don't reduce it to zero, and zero is what we see.

      (Or actually, one.)

    4. Re:Well known filter is currently active by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um. If you look at the graph in wikipedia, the rate of biodiversity *isn't* plummeting vertically downwards at all. In fact the amount of biodiversity has steadily increased with brief dips around the extinction events.

  24. Ambassador G'Kar by RDW · · Score: 1

    "There are things in the Universe billions of years older than either of our races. They are vast, timeless, and if they are aware of us at all, it is as little more than ants and we have as much chance of communicating with them as an ant has with us. We know. We've tried and we've learned that we can either stay out from underfoot or be stepped on. They are a mystery and I am both terrified and reassured to know that there are still wonders in the Universe, that we have not explained everything. Whatever they are, Miss Sakai, they walk near Sigma 957 and they must walk there alone."

  25. Um, a random thought by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 1, Interesting
    Was the early universe, like the first second after the big bang, a separate "regime" to what we see today? ie the energy density of free space was so high that reactions could happen so much faster that anything that could be called life (in whatever passed for matter, or substrate) evolved, lived, learned, observed its universe, died within that second and the universe kept cooling?

    Subjectively that second would have been like billions of years to them. And could they have left traces, like manipulating the fabric of space to encourage life to form in atomic matter? Like the universe for them would have been the size of a watermelon and they'd have had energy at scales to make quasars look like a cheap eBay LED flashlight?

    --
    Mostly random stuff.
    1. Re:Um, a random thought by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like the plot to a Stephen Baxter novel.

    2. Re:Um, a random thought by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 1

      Maybe I need to update my library!

      --
      Mostly random stuff.
    3. Re:Um, a random thought by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Reminded me of Dragon's Egg

    4. Re:Um, a random thought by femtobyte · · Score: 1

      Whether you could form "complex" and "interesting" structures depends on how many layers "deeper" physics goes than the current level of understanding. Consider how many molecules it takes to make a human brain: to form life, much less intelligent life, you need a vast number of simple units able to subtly interact for long periods (relative to their typical interaction timescale) before being ripped apart and reorganized. If string-theory-like structures are the "fundamental" constituents of the universe, then you wouldn't be able to form sufficiently big/complex structures to do much before getting scrambled in the churning subatomic plasma. You'd need far "finer" structures, way way beyond the Planck scale, to "withstand the heat" and form interesting structures that could "do something" before being torn back apart. Such things can't be a-priori ruled out (we don't understand how physics works even at the Planck scale), but neither is there any reason to suspect such of existing (rather than whatever happens around the Planck scale being the "fundamental" level sufficient to generate the universe).

    5. Re:Um, a random thought by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 1

      Yeah, a bit of everything. Pohl's Gateway trilogy had the kulgelblitz energy creatures from the early universe trying their best to change the universe back to the early conditions. Dragon's Egg had the Cheela, overclocked living neutronium creatures.

      --
      Mostly random stuff.
    6. Re:Um, a random thought by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Like slowing down time so that the universe would take much longer to cool to absolute zero.

    7. Re:Um, a random thought by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of the books in the Xeelee series describes pretty much exactly the OP's theory. As in, as universe gets older and the energy states lower, the time scale stretches. For each energy epoch, everything before it looks too energetic and short to support life; everything after it seems to be too cold. Still, every epoch has it's own forms of life (and intelligence). The one after ours has some quantum function beings (evolved from humans and aliens) huddling around slowly evaporating black holes, and a single thought takes millions of years.

  26. Grammar nazi by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's "3 kelvins", not "3 Kelvin". Lower case to mean the temperature unit, upper case to mean 3 copies of Lord Kelvin.

  27. Fringe "science" strikes again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is roughly like stating (with a straight face) that the Easter Bunny could have appeared 150 years after Santa Claus.

    I don't care about ANY of your mythical "events" from history. Why the hell would I care about what one has to do with the other?

  28. Were there even enough Heavy Elements at 15MY? by StaticEngine · · Score: 0

    I'm sure there was plenty of Hydrogen, and probably a lot of Helium at that point, but given that life (as we know it) depends on, at very least, elements up to Sodium (Atomic Number 11), and heaver elements are the result of nucleosynthesis in the exploding cores of dying stars, even with water around, were there enough heavier elements to support life? Was there even enough Oxygen around to form water, regardless of the temperature?

    1. Re:Were there even enough Heavy Elements at 15MY? by TrollstonButterbeans · · Score: 0

      So you have the only intelligent comment in this thread.

      Like you said, hydrogen + helium and maybe very tenuous traces of lithium would be the only molecules prior to start formation.

      15 million years isn't enough time for there to be planetary nebula with even carbon.

      I don't see how there are even planets --- there are only Population II stars (stars composed almost exclusively of hydrogen) in the very early days of the universe --- these stars wouldn't have much time to produce any metals, not even the very large ones with very short life spans ...

      --
      Priest: "Universe from nothing, no laws of physics, sped up time"+ huge discrepancies. Creationism? No. Big Bang Theory
    2. Re:Were there even enough Heavy Elements at 15MY? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Read the article. It discusses this point.

    3. Re:Were there even enough Heavy Elements at 15MY? by WWJohnBrowningDo · · Score: 1

      The paper explicitly address this. More like, that's what the whole paper is about.

      Previous research established that the first stars were very short lived, or as phrased in the summary:

      And since the first stars had a lifespan of only 3 million years or so, that allows plenty of time for the heavy elements to have formed which are necessary for planet formation and the chemistry of life.

      The results of this paper says that the first stars started forming 15 Myr after the Big Bang. Combine these two conjectures and you have the necessary heavy elements at 18 Myr.

  29. Intelligent life is based on metal... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    we are meat, they watch our TV shows and choose to ignore us.

    -42

  30. Not much time by hawguy · · Score: 1

    A several million year period where life could have developed is not much time considering that it took several billion years for life on earth to evolve from simple cells to multi-cellular organisms.

    1. Re:Not much time by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 2
      It took several billion years because the atmosphere lacked oxygen and it took them (cyanobacteria) several billion years of emitting oxygen by photosynthesis to go to the next stage. If oxygen was already available, they could have saved a couple of billion years.

      The theory of punctuated equilibrium holds that there were long periods of stasis and sudden bursts of evolution when the conditions changed rapidly. So if the statis periods were short plenty of evolution could take place in a few million years. Still it is difficult to believe multi celluar organisms could evolve that quickly.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  31. Fluidic space by wiredlogic · · Score: 1

    So the universe once had the perfect living conditions for species 8472/

    --
    I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
  32. Thermodynamics by Michael+Woodhams · · Score: 1

    To locally decrease entropy (as life must) you need both an energy source and an energy sink (i.e. somewhere to send your waste heat.) I think this era of the universe would have problems with the energy sink bit. If the coldest available sink is 270K, life would need to be much hotter to be able to use it, which is likely too hot for complex organic reactions.

    Having said that, a little bit after (say when the microwave background was at 200K) might have been pretty good for life. Now you only need a little help from a star and planetary atmosphere to get liquid water, so a star's Goldilocks zone should be much larger than at present.

    --
    Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
    1. Re:Thermodynamics by femtobyte · · Score: 1

      Life gets along just fine with nothing colder than a 270K heat sink --- unless you don't think anything can live indoors or underground without a direct view of the cold sky. In fact, the majority of life does better when not in good contact with a 270K thermal bath (ice temperature). You need some heat sink, but life can get along just fine at, e.g., 310K (human body temperature) with a 300K (room temperature) environment as a heat sink.

    2. Re:Thermodynamics by Michael+Woodhams · · Score: 1

      True, well argued.

      For there to be an energy flow, the life needs to be in a temperature range intermediate between the source and the sink. I'm still a bit worried that if there is a sufficient energy source (most likely a star or geothermal) it will raise the entire environment of the planet significantly above the ambient universal 270K.

      However, it really isn't a significant issue. If 270K cosmic temperature is too high for life on planets for whatever reason, it will be comfortable a few million years later. The basic argument of 'a few million years friendly for life everywhere' still holds.

      --
      Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
    3. Re:Thermodynamics by jmv · · Score: 1

      Actually, I thought the whole idea of the "Goldilocks universe" was that life could develop anywhere without the need for a star at the right distance (otherwise there's no advantage). The problem then is exactly as you pointed out. There's no way for life to extract energy, no matter what the temperature is, because everything is at thermal equilibrium. The only way to get energy is through a star. And if you have a star, then having the microwave background doesn't help and is just likely to just make your planet too hot.

    4. Re:Thermodynamics by CesiumFrog · · Score: 1

      The reason why this planet is around 300K is that the surface of the sun only fills a small solid-angle of our sky. Without the 3K background, our planet would heat up until photosynthesis became entropically unviable (by going in reverse as often as not).

      When the CMB was 300K then, to prevent water from boiling, a planet would need to be much further from its sun. This would make it very dark; photosynthesis would need to be extremely efficient (which is difficult to engineer, or unlikely to arise biologically).

  33. This would violate the Second Law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cosmologist argues that the Big Bang was at billions of degrees and the background radiation is barely above absolute zero. The temperature of the universe must have passed through the range at which water is liquid somewhere along the way. Therefore, Life could have evolved very early on.
    Poppycock!
    Life continually becomes more organized. You are a lower-entropy state than a stew of hydrogen, carbon, etc. of the same mass and at the same temperature. Simply put, the number of microstates which are alive is much much less than the number of states which are aren’t. As soon as you die, your body starts to move towards one of those more likely configurations.
    Life does NOT violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics because our decrease of entropy is more than compensated for by increases in entropy elsewhere. Specifically, in the Sun.
    The Sun is more than a source of light and heat. Every quanta of energy which the Earth absorbs is, on average, radiated away again. If this were not so the Earth would grow steadily and indefinitely hotter (or colder.) What the Sun DOES is provide up for a steady supply of energy with low Entropy.
    The Entropy of a body is, formally, its Energy divided by its absolute temperature. In the case of radiation, “temperature” is derived from its frequency. It’s the temperature of the body which emitted it. Every day Earth absorbs energy from a high-temperature source, about 6000 degrees. High temperature means low-entropy, because temperature appears in the denominator. The energy radiates back into space at Earth-temperature, about 60 F. So the Earth is continually throwing its unwanted Entropy into the night sky,
    You need both a high-temperature source and a low-temperature sink to get anything useful done. A rock on a cliff above you does no work unless there’s a valley for it to fall into.
    If the entire sky “glowed” at the same temperature the planet has, then Life would be unable to maintain its low-entropy state, to evolve or, indeed, to do much of anything.

  34. Papa Bear and Mama Bear are People, Too by retroworks · · Score: 1

    The main limitation of "Goldilocks Zone" is in the imagination. Papa Bear's porridge was the right temperature for Papa Bear. We are defining "life sustaining" as what would sustain our lives. Who would have predicted "vent and seep" communities on the ocean floor, living from heat from fissures? But those are easy... What's really hard to understand are life forms that have a civilization occur in a millisecond, or a synapse that takes a million years...

    --
    Gently reply
    1. Re:Papa Bear and Mama Bear are People, Too by dlingman · · Score: 1

      What's really hard to understand are life forms that have a civilization occur in a millisecond, or a synapse that takes a million years...

      Well, with respect to that last one, don't you have politicians where you live?

  35. Nah.... everybody knows.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That the Ancients built the Star Gates. Jump Gates, on the other hand, were initially created by the First Ones.

    1. Re:Nah.... everybody knows.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where does Bill Gates come in here?

    2. Re:Nah.... everybody knows.... by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      He is a robot left over from the creation of time it's self.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
  36. Your argument about how long we've been listening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    is empty. If there are a significant number of other civilizations and a significant number of those are older than us, then we ought to have detected them as soon as we started listening

    Consider:

    You go to the store and by a new radio. You take it home and plug it in and switch it on. You've been listening for mere moments, and yet - you immediately hear many different stations broadcasting a wide variety of content because there are other people who are richer and more advanced than you and who had technology before you who already set up their stations and started broadcasting long before you started listening

  37. universe as incubator, temporary nursery by crow5599 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    My money's on the idea that our universe is just an incubator for new life. A nursery. Stars are heat lamps, planets are nests, etc. Eventually, technological civilizations grow out of childhood, learn enough about their surroundings to realize there's much more out there, and their tech develops enough to let them escape and join the party outside the universe, where all the other super-old civilizations are. Crazy rambling, I know, but it's a good seed for ideas.

  38. Thermodynamically by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The cosmic background radiation would have caused the entire universe to be at this temperature, but for any thermodynamically feasible process to occur you need some difference in temperature, so I'm guessing these objects capable of supporting life must have had done variance in surface temperatures, which to must be in the range supported by carbon based organic life, which imposes yet another constraint to make this equally likely as it is today

  39. Answering the article's final question by Aristos+Mazer · · Score: 1

    Quoting from the end of the article:
    > Foremost among them will be whether there is any mechanism that could have allowed life from
    > this era, if it did evolve, to have survived as the universe cooled down. And if so, whether there
    > might be evidence of it today.

    Seems like it would be possible if a world was in free space during the warm period and then was captured by a sun as the background radiation cooled. Yeah, the handoff would have to be pretty precisely timed, but if there were millions of such worlds, one or two might have nicely transitioned. Does that sound plausible?

  40. Trace element problem by scorp1us · · Score: 1

    Don't forget you need a smattering of heavier elements for life. So you need to wait through a couple cycles of super novas to get a decent distribution of elements over atomic 5 (Fe)... including carbon. Hving this stiff made in a star isn't enough, it's gotta accrete into a planet after.

    --
    Slashdot's rate-of-post filter: Preventing you from posting too many great ideas at once.
  41. Would cool spots have existed? by darenw · · Score: 1

    Would the chemistry leading to primitive life, and the very earliest life forms, need cooler places? If all of space is permeated by comfy temperatures, where could things happen needing to happen at cooler temperatures? Maybe evaporation in certain places could lead to that, or some other nonequilibrium situations.

    Amoebas gotta keep their primitive beer cold!

  42. Can this be right? by FunkDup · · Score: 1

    OK, so the heavy elements began to be manufactured after just 3 million years, but were they manufactured in large numbers?

    And how long does it take for those heavy elements to disperse through the universe and then coalesce into a planet around a suitable star? Seems like it might be longer than 15 million years.

    And life took 500 million years to get started after Earth formed. For sure, for some of that time the Earth was too hot for life to occur but 15 million years seems too short for anything useful to happen. Maybe some RNA and some enzymes if you're lucky, but that would be about it.

    --
    Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds -- Albert Einstein
  43. "Life Could Have Evolved 15 Million Years After t" by danielpauldavis · · Score: 1

    Getting a DNA molecule of amino acids that are ALL laevo-rotary AND communicate with enzymes that were also randomly assembled will require much more than the 14,700,000,000 folks here are proposing. Try slapping a few hundred more zeroes on that number. State of the universe after 15,000,000 years means nothing unless one is foolish enough to believe what there's no evidence for. Grasping at straws, again, are you?

    --
    Cranky educator.
  44. Perhaps... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It could be the "Spore" game paradox whereby you leave your solar system only to find out it's all the same rubbish out there and you realize it's worth shit exploring.

  45. I really like this theory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#They_tend_to_experience_a_technological_singularity

    If it can't be achieved in the physical world just jump into a virtual one.

    IMO it would be an awesome alternative to a physical existence considering virtual and physical are one and the same when it comes to your brain.

  46. A Long Time Ago by 427_ci_505 · · Score: 2

    In a Galaxy Far, Far Away...

  47. Re:quaky cosmologists quacks by MildlyTangy · · Score: 1

    and all the other ducks quack back.

    lol. u so quacky

  48. Re:Your argument about how long we've been listeni by boristhespider · · Score: 1

    "If there are a significant number of other civilizations and a significant number of those are older than us, then we ought to have detected them as soon as we started listening"

    No, because my argument is that any civilisation has effectively a thin shell of accessible radio, followed by what appears to be a radio-hot source for the period in which they even still broadcast to all and sundry. In this case, then we should see radio-hot sources, so the question becomes "why don't we see them?" (With one answer being "they're not broadcasting quite so profligately to the cosmos anymore" -- even we're heading that way.)

  49. New Answer to the fermi paradox by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All civilisation all long dead ago in the first "wave" of life 15 millions years ago. Now we have only sparse civilisation unable to bridge the gap between stars. And soon there shall be none.

  50. We have the great filter in plain view by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Look at how much of our natural resource we used up in the last 50 years. uranium, coal, oil. And we have not been really making up progress in "interstellar colonization". To me it is as plain as the nose on the face : we will be spending so much of our easy extracting energy, that in the near future we will not be able to muster up the resource to start constructing even the smallest possible generation ship, much less study the tech for it.

    I am betting that the great filter is simply that all civilisation mispend their energy like we did, and too late are not able to muster the resource to do anything.

  51. It is even worst than that by aepervius · · Score: 1

    Due to intensity of transmission diminushing in 1/r^2, there is almost no signal which left earth coded or not, and went beyond 1 light year before being lost in interstellar noise. The only signal were intentional high powered highly directional signal sent to in the direction of a galaxy (M10?M32?M52 ? Can't remmember). They amount tom maybe a few hours signal, and those few hours are the ONLY signal which went beyond a few light year still being detectable.

    So realistically in all our history We emitted maybe at worst a few hours of signal a remote civilisation 4 light year away (or beyond) would detect !.

    Arecibo was never set to detect unintentional SETI signal, we are looking for the same type of "we are here" signal we sent. As for the rest , they might be theoretical or even fantastical construct, but that's pretty much all we have, beside hoping that the spectra of the planet we try to observe has something special which makes us say "this one might have something".

    --
    C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
    visit randi.org
  52. Perhaps they have watched TOS episodes. by master_p · · Score: 1

    After watching James T. Kirk "managing" those green girls, they decided this planet isn't for them.

  53. This goes well with this theory by bauernakke · · Score: 1

    http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1304/1304.3381.pdf Extrapolating life origin back to early universe

  54. The planet conditions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The planets may have been in the right position but would they have had enough time to cool down?
    It would be cool if life did exist, but how long did it last? If the suns then only lasted shortly and the background radiation dropped too low, would they be extinct now?

  55. Waist high snow *at least*. by MRe_nl · · Score: 1

    But somewhere along the road, it must have been between 273 and 300 Kelvin, just right to keep water in liquid form.

    --
    "Kill 'em all and let Root sort 'em out"
  56. Must be the new math by Dcnjoe60 · · Score: 1

    This must be more of that new math. For the only planet that we know that has life, ours, it has been here for 2.7B years out of the 4.5B years the planet has been around. That means it took 1.8B years to form and even if that is off by 1/2, that means 900M years. It seems like a reach to expect that all of the right conditions would have been present in the 15M years available by the new calculations to allow life to form in that very narow window.

    1. Re:Must be the new math by FunkDup · · Score: 1

      hmmmm. I mainly agree, but as a point of accuracy...

      it took 1.8B years to form and even if that is off by 1/2, that means 900M years

      900M is about right according to wikipedia

      The thing is, for much of that time Earth would have been a ball of lava, so once it cooled down life got going quite quickly.

      the right conditions would have been present in the 15M years available

      The summary actually says the the universe was about 15 million years old and would have lasted several million years. So...yeh, too short for anything useful to happen. One wonders what could be cool enough after only 15B years , and do you really need something as big as a planet?

      --
      Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds -- Albert Einstein
  57. Re:Your argument about how long we've been listeni by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Consider instead:

    You build your own AM/FM radio at home.
    You switch it on.
    You hear nothing but static because everyone else is using spread spectrum digital radio signals instead.
    You conclude there is nobody out there.

  58. Oxygen? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not sure if 15m years was enough time for baking some Oxygen and distributing it around. In a purely Hydrogen universe, there is no potential for complex chemistry needed for life. Unless we are assuming some exotic, Hydrogen-only life, I say this conjecture is bonkers.

  59. Evidence by gmclapp · · Score: 1

    It makes me a little sad that while the conditions were probably right for life as we know it, there is little to no chance any evidence of a specific civilization survives to the present day...

    --
    Common Sense (+1)
  60. Reionization by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't know how up to date Wikipedia is on the matter, but according to it, Reionization (and thus, the birth of stars) didn't happen until 400 million years after the Big Bang. Without stars, no elements heavier than lithium form in useful amounts. Someone needs to go look over their new calculations again.

  61. Thermal death by Framboise · · Score: 2

    Life is an out-of-thermal equilibrium process, which needs the cold part of the universe to export the produced entropy necessary for sustaining life. Life does not really needs solar *energy* (otherwise earth would warm up). Actually the energy of the low entropy photons of the sun is transformed and radiated away in cold space as more numerous infrared photons. No energy is gained in average, the precise amount of solar energy received from the sun is radiated away into space, but entropy is exported. This entropy export is crucial for allowing life.
    Incidentally this explains why life does not respect the second principle of thermodynamics since the biosphere is not in thermal equilibrium.

    Once this understood, the scenario of the cosmologists appears completely flawed, as the cold part of the process is missing.

         

    1. Re:Thermal death by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Incidentally this explains why life does not respect the second principle of thermodynamics since the biosphere is not in thermal equilibrium.

      If you are saying that objects not in thermal equilibrium can fail to respect the second law of thermodynamics, then you don't know enough to be posting here. The Second Law is about probabilities, and objects out of thermal equilibrium with their surroundings still obey those laws. If they have even slightly more heat than their surroundings, then they will still be more likely to radiate heat than to absorb it. The fact that living things take in energy in order to maintain that state of affairs doesn't change the facts of probability.

      Please don't feed the creationists, thank you.

  62. Really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All the talk of Goldilocks zones and just right conditions mix with water and energy and such, then voilà! I tell you what, you do it in the lab with basic elements under perfect conditions, even accelerate it if you want so we don't have a lengthy experiment. Let me know when you actually get something that's close to life as we know it.

  63. 300K but uniform an obstacle to life? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I wonder how uniform the temperature was in the early universe. I think temperature gradients (in fact, gradients of almost any kind) would help life and evolution.

    What I'm thinking here is that you can extract energy from flowing water but not from a still lake without waves.

  64. life ? and then extiguished still at most basic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seevral million years? And how long did it take on earth which had those conditions for far longer ??

    Might? Doesnt equate to did. and afterwards then what ? 'The First Extinction' as the cooling wiped any progress made out of existance.

    Another nothing story.

  65. massive meteor bombardments 800M years by peter303 · · Score: 1

    Craters on the "3M" planets Mercury, Moon and Mars show periosd of large bombardments until 3.8GY before present. Early life chemicals may have been roasted several times. Incidnetally the first strong signs of Earth life are from that era, befores supportig a rapid early evolution.

  66. The sick absured by doom · · Score: 1

    I like the "obserd" coinage, but myself I would use it to mean something that's completely absurd, and yet has been observed anyway, and must be accepted as fact.

    (You know, like 38% of Republicans are still "tea party supporters".)

  67. One-Quarter by Josh-Levin · · Score: 1

    Apparently, life has existed on Earth for one-quarter of the time since the Big Bang.

  68. Proof of a "could have" by glitch23 · · Score: 2

    "Life Could Have Evolved 15 Million Years After the Big Bang, Says Cosmologist" And I could have gotten up on the other side of the bed today.....but I didn't. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.... So again there is no proof. Just assumptions that must be true otherwise the lies become exposed and you all look like fools. That can't ever happen so the lies must be perpetuated. But at best we just hear "could have", "must have", "may have" to represent the extent of "evidence". Pathetic and yet you people hang on every word of these scientists so long as they continue giving you the slightest sliver of hope that you won't have to resort to acknowledging a god may exist that created everything instead of chance. Quit putting faith into Man trying to create a theory specifically to deny the existence of a god while accusing those who do have faith in the same god of being stupid for having faith in something they cannot see. Normal people call those people hypocrites. Carry on with believing in the load of lies that Satan throws at you. And may God have mercy on your souls for being so ignorant.

    --
    this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. -- Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
    1. Re:Proof of a "could have" by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      That was satire, wasn't it?

  69. Stars - problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I can see one problem - the stars were only Hydrogen - to generate C, N, O, it needs much more than one generation of he stars, you start to get few of these elements only after the next generations - and they already live quite long.....not 3 milion years.