Slashdot Mirror
Record Wind Power Levels Trigger Energy Price Fall Across Europe
New submitter Forty Two Tenfold writes "Electricity prices across Europe dropped last month as mild temperatures, strong winds and stormy weather produced wind power records in Germany, France and the UK, according to data released by Platts. The price decline was more marked in Germany, where the average day-ahead baseload price in December fell 10% month over month to €35.71/MWh. On a daily basis, December was a month of extremes for Germany, with day-ahead base prices closing on December 10 and 11 at less than €60/MWh – the highest over-the-counter levels seen all year – only to fall to its lowest level December 24 to €0.50/MWh."
Considering that money is not going to subsidize some Arab regime, does not add carbon to the atmosphere, and does not use up a non-renewable resource, I'd say it's a great deal. More, please.
Please note that those prices are day to day EPEX spot prices and have as much in common with the rate you get charged as a consumer/business. Even less than brent spot prices influence fuel prices at your gas station, since most electricity consumers have a yearly price agreement. The huge variation is due to the over-capacities of German networks during high wind/ sun times. This overload has to be sold to other meta consumers if necessary at a negative price. This is one of the reasons why a lot of companies here in central europe are investing in transportation (high voltage DC networks) and means to store the overproduction (water/salt/batteries).
€35.71/MWh from the generator is not exactly cheap by US experience.
The cheapest electricity in the USA today is in Kentucky (coal country) where it goes for about 6 cents/kWh. That is about $60/MWh, which is considerably more than 35 euros. I live in California, and I pay from 12 to 30 cents per kWh ($120 to $300 per MWh) depending on usage tier.
Man, i was going to post the exact same thing about Ontario Hydro and our somewhat "failed" green energy program.
We have one of the largest nuke plants in the world (Bruce nuclear, #2) but all they do is buy super-expensive wind and sign long term contracts to do so as well.
When the NIMBY people complained they forced the wind generators anyhow.
That is one of the problems with wind and solar: they are unpredictable. Free markets cannot "smooth it out" for consumers, because if there is large-scale reliance on renewable and the wind/solar generation fails, then there will be a shortage of conventional fossil-fuel/hydro/nuclear generated power. A better solution may be the development of longer term energy storage and batteries, such that consumers can buy at low prices and avoid buying at higher prices.
The ones affected are the companies that actually own power plants to generate power and sell it to the utility companies, as they are the ones who see their earnings fluctuate between $0.50/MWh to $60/MWh.
And guess what? These market conditions make it hard to impossible to make a profit out of modern clean gas-fired power plants. I know of at least one example (The Netherlands) where an ultra-modern gas-fired plant had to be closed down and dismantled because it couldn't compete. It was a plant that could both supply a base load and respond quickly to variations. It could compete very well as a peak-load plant ... but not as a base load supplier. Unfortunately the market for peak loads had shrunk to the extent that it could no longer be operated at a profit.
The plants best suited to survive in this market are old, dirty, written-off coal plants (base load) and old dirty written-off peakers. Oh irony ... abundant (but quite volatile) green power kills off the cleanest and most modern fossil fuel plants first. I bet the Greens don't like that.
Not sure what you are thinking or if you're confused about units, etc. but ... /MWh which is close to the euro 35 ($47) price in TFA.
A quick search of US Wholesale prices shows a range of $31 to $71 for last year with highest prices in the Northeast. California was $42
So... price for this wind power is on par with US wholesale prices for all (coal, hydro, NG, etc.) averaged together... not really 3x.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
That's not just not exactly cheap, that's 3x the cost of power here in California
I think you need a new calculator. 35.71 euros is about $49. That is less than 5 cents/kWhr. Where in California are you getting a kWh for one third of a nickel?
Just to save time, let's all agree that wind power could never, ever, ever work in North America. Or solar. Obviously the blah blah blah mumble mumble obfuscate is so different here that it would be impossible.
Also, North American wind is like TOTALLY different from European wind.
Three Squirrels
According to this article:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/1/10/energy-markets/negative-spin-europes-amazing-electricity-prices
"Over the Christmas holiday, which typically causes a drop in energy demand, wholesale electricity prices in Germany, the Nordic region, the Czech Republic and Slovakia turned negative on excessive renewable energy production and mild weather."
On December 24, 2013, when industrial and business power demand dropped sharply, the price of German power for intra-day delivery fell to an average of -€35.45 per megawatt-hour between 0000 and 0600 in the morning, touching lows of -€62.03/MWh halfway through that period.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
wind doesn't vary on a minute by minute basis, though. Perhaps we don't need batteries, so much as we need a way to communicate pricing signals to the consumers.
If I had a device that I could set price points to, say, start a load of laundry or run the refrigerator compressor, or hold off on the AC when a price transmitted by the power company is high or low, I could make my own demand follow the actual supply more closely.
Just because I might have a few big-power needs, doesn't mean I can't be flexible with when they are executed, if I have some way of knowing when a good time is.
I would want the information to be a price that I choose, though, rather than the "smart metering" I've seen elsewhere where the device allows the power company to decide when your devices run. If I'm picking, I can override, for instance if I'm going to an interview in a few hours and just noticed I need to wash a suit or something.
Can you be Even More Awesome?!
Now we just need a practical, ecologically friendly way of storing, long term, the excess energy that has nowhere to go. It's great that this much wind energy can be generated under unusual conditions, it would be better if we would store the large quantities that no doubt went to waste for want of adequate storage technology.
Brought to you by Carl's Junior.
A better solution may be the development of longer term energy storage and batteries
An even better solution is to pass through the fluctuation in the wholesale prices directly to the consumers. This will stimulate a demand for appliances that are "price aware". So refrigerators, freezers, and AC will pre-chill when power is cheap and coast when it is not. Water heaters, clothes dryers, etc. will disconnect their heating elements when prices surge. Instead of only trying to smooth the supply, we should try to change the demand to meet the supply, and market prices are the best way to achieve that.
My calculations are 60 euro time 1.37 equals 82.2 dollars divided by 1000 or .082 or 8.2 cents per kilowatt hour. .5 euro times 1.37 equals .685 dollars divided by 1000 or .000685 or .0685 cents per kilowatt hour. The most expensive is close to what I pay and the cheapest is far less. At the cheapest rate my electricity bill would be less than 1% of what I now pay. 14.5 kilowatt hours per penny is almost free.
On a daily basis, December was a month of extremes for Germany, with day-ahead base prices closing on December 10 and 11 at less than €60/MWh – the highest over-the-counter levels seen all year – only to fall to its lowest level December 24 to €0.50/MWh.
I have seen a nice bumper sticker before: Solar and wind are allright, but nuke's do it all night.
I agree with this sentiment. Shame Germany is phasing out nuclear in favor of coal.
I'm from Portugal, this type of "green-article" never tells the whole story .
,this is terribly expensive for us, because the more subsidized energy is produced , naturally we paid more and more. Portugal already has one of the most expensive energy prices in Europe, but as the price of energy sold to public is regulated, dont reflect the real and crazy cost, consumers have accumulated a huge tariff debt to the system . In Portugal this tariff debt already exceeds 4000 million € in Spain now exceeds € 25000 million €.
We have a serious problem with subsidized renewable energy , as has Spain , or Germany ( but these are rich and in Portugal we live in a severe crisis).
When there is too much wind and hydro generation, prices in the energy market fall, BUT producers of renewable energy ( exluindo large hydro ) receive the same guaranteed rate ( feed-in tariff). As these producers have priority in the system all energy produced by them have to be bought, even if there is much cheaper energy in the market (gas, nuclear, oil, etc), even if it's free as has happened several times in the past (in Germany last year energy price at one day was negative) we have to buy the subsidized energy !
So actually what happens when there is too much wind and rain
To get an idea of prices paid to subsidized energy, here I leave these two pictures:
Annual change in average cost per type of energy: http://i.imgur.com/MFaPFRZ.png
Annual changes in the average cost of energy subsidized vs. average market cost: http://i.imgur.com/OFn71pI.png
Given the track record of UK power companies they will probably try and fiddle it so works out as a price increase to consumers. If there was any justice those running these companies should be looking at serious time behind bars for what they have been up to, Hollywood accounting and manipulating the wholesale prices to justify increasing household bills. As it is they will be allowed to retire to their huge piles in the home counties with probably a knighthood or some such to keep them cosy.
These are wholesale prices. Once you add in VAT and the EU's subsidy taxes the actual retail prices are quite a bit higher.
The prices also vary quite a bit from country to country, and within countries.
http://energy.globaldata.com/media-center/press-releases/power-and-resources/europe-paying-more-for-electricity-than-us-states-globaldata-consultant-with-dramatic-differences-seen-between-countries
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/10/27/berlins-ballooning-electricity-rates-become-highest-in-europe/
I suppose I'm considering a longer term buying and usage scale. The article mentions the high prices were December 11th, and the low prices were December 24th. It is concerning to me that my appliances might not operate for 13 days at a time until the price drops again. Certainly price aware appliances are a good idea, and could be combined with a battery or storage mechanism. But ideally I want to buy electricity at 0.50 euros/MWh, store it and ignore high prices while I continue to use my appliances at arbitrary times, buy additional electricity when the price falls again, and then laugh at anyone who paid 35 euros/MWh because they got their electricity from conventional generation while mine was generated and stored from renewable.
I forgot to mention that as fossil energy plants (natural gas turbine plants, etc) have long stops, the government has to pay them big compensations for not producing, as anyway they are necessary to the system.
On a daily basis, December was a month of extremes for Germany, with day-ahead base prices closing on December 10 and 11 at less than â60/MWh â" the highest over-the-counter levels seen all year â" only to fall to its lowest level December 24 to â0.50/MWh.
What you really must know there is that these low costs are not passed on to the customer. On the contrary, energy prices for private users have been constantly rising for years.
Why? Because our corrupt bullshit non-government has passed laws that exempt the - wait for it - biggest industrial users of energy from taxes. Which, of course, means that the rest of us have to pay their share.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
Not sure the wholesale price accurately reflects the complete picture.
Soaring energy bills in the UK is little short of a crisis but with little correlation to the wholesale cost of the energy, I the prices here don't fall at all.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/nov/16/energy-prices-rise
Although wind power does not contribute to global warming through greenhouse gas emission, it does extract kinetic energy from the atmosphere and therefore may alter global climate even at continental scales
It may be the lesser of evils compared to some other supplemental energy options but it isn't perfect- and it isn't a good candidate for base load
Not sure what you are thinking or if you're confused about units, etc.
I'm pretty sure the poster was dividing 35.71 by 1000 to get KWh price and getting .3571 rather than .03571. Then they said "47 cents per KWh!? That's 3X our residential price!". Fairly simple, and easy, mistake to make when working with with one set that scales by 1000 (kilo, mega, giga, etc.) and another item that scales by 100 (dollars to cents).
Other than Hawaii almost all US electric generation is from domestic sources since oil is WAY too expensive on a $/BTU basis to compete with coal and natural gas, it's much better used for transportation and for feedstock for the petrochemical industries (plastics, cosmetics, medicine, textiles, etc).
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
Wind and solar is predictable enough or which part of the articles day ahead price did you not get?
Do you really think if the weather report for tomorrow predicts my plant will yield 1.134GW that the actual variation makes me any trouble? Or that I accidentally will only produce half of it?
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
Except it can't guarantee a continuous base load, so there goes its suitability.
Wind is a perfect candidate for base load.
I don't think you know what that word means...
Well, energy prices on the market don't quite reflect the prices for private end users.
In 2014, as a regular German citizen I have to pay about 0.3 € per kWh, which is about $409.8 per MWh. Combined with all the other living costs here, I can guarantee you that it doesn't feel like "almost free" at all.
The price decline was more marked in Germany, where the average day-ahead baseload price in December fell 10% month over month to €35.71/MWh. On a daily basis, December was a month of extremes for Germany, with day-ahead base prices closing on December 10 and 11 at less than €60/MWh – the highest over-the-counter levels seen all year – only to fall to its lowest level December 24 to €0.50/MWh.
Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
There are two different definitions of 'base load' in common use:
- In one definition, the base load is the minimum amount of power that must be provided at any given time and situation. Ideally, every utility will be able to meet its base load requirements even if all the variable load sources (wind, solar, etc) are simultaneously unavailable. Base Load generation facilities are power plants that can reasonably be expected to be available at any time for as long as is needed -- coal and gas powered power plants, nuclear plants, hydroelectric power.
- In the other definition, base load facilities are those which must be run at full output if that is possible in order to satisfy economic expectations and eventually pay for the investment in the facility. Unpredictable sources like wind are likely to be baseline load under the second definition, but not the first.
There are two problem areas here:
- Using the first definition, a utility must be able to somehow satisfy maximum demand even if major variable supplies are unavailable.
- Using the second definition, base load sources must be given priority lest the owners lose money. If utility owners routinely lose money, there will be no new utilities built, and possibly no maintenance of existing facilities. The problem is that most power sources are base load sources under this definition, thus everyone must have priority.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Both of your definitions are no "definitions". :D
They are layman interpretations of the true definition
Baseload: the amount of load you always feed into the grid, regardless of demand. That means even at night when your "demand" is only roughly 30% of the peak, you still feed the typical 40% "base load" into the grid, it is used to fill up pumped storages. Traditionally -- as you explain correctly -- done with cheap plants that run nearly at 100% *all the time*. With the side effect that those plants are also relatively slow in load following
There are two problem areas here:
- Using the first definition, a utility must be able to somehow satisfy maximum demand even if major variable supplies are unavailable.
That is wrong. As *base laod* is not used for *maxiumum demand* but only for far less then half of the *maximum*, the rest is done with load following and peak plants.
- Using the second definition, base load sources must be given priority lest the owners lose money. If utility owners routinely lose money, there will be no new utilities built, and possibly no maintenance of existing facilities. The problem is that most power sources are base load sources under this definition, thus everyone must have priority.
That is not true as well. As modern *base load* plants are similar quick in demand change and adaption as normal load following plants. In fact they are the same thing. It is only a planning decision which plants you use for base load tomorrow
If I know I will have enough wind tomorrow I will plan today how much of that wind power I consider base load.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
Ofc it can be guaranteed, or what you think how germany is using wind power as base power? By magic?
Did it ever happen that a region that had a wind prognosis of lets say 40km/h to 60km/h suddenly had ZERO wind? Or significantly less then 40km/h?
Don't know how good the weather reports in your country are, but in europe they are very reliable (after all the atmosphere found no trick yet to trick out the scientists on so simple stuff as a 24h wind forecast.)
And as the other poster pointed out: germany is not huge, but still roughly 1000km from north to south and 700km from east to west. So: plenty of place to have wind farms, so if indeed at one edge the wind vanishes, the rest still produces energy.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
In Oregon I'm paying 5 cents for the electricity, and another 6 cents for delivery, with transparent markup (public utility)
One problem with comparing the prices is that there are different types of contracts; wind we get on fixed contracts, where it is very cheap because the capacity is purchased in advanced. Any coal power we get is off the spot market, where it is vastly more expensive than wind, hydro, or nuclear.
In Kentucky, their coal power is cheap not because coal is cheaper, but because they're getting it on a fixed contract.
California experiences perpetual growth, and has trouble getting the number of fixed contracts that they would desire based on what they know they need. And because of the size of the California market, energy companies try very hard to play games with the maintenance schedules to increase the percent that is bought off the spot market.
Inside the same market, hydro is cheapest, next is PV, nuclear, wind, natural gas, and pulling up the rear, coal. Obviously there will be a very tiny area right around the physical coal where the transport and storage costs are close to zero, where it probably beats natural gas.