Math Models Predicted Global Uprisings

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Math Models Predicted Global Uprisings

Posted by samzenpus on Wednesday February 19, 2014 @08:57PM from the no-food-no-peace dept.

retroworks writes "Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe. Sure enough, we're seeing them now. The paper's author, Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price index—a measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over time—and found that whenever it rose above 210, riots broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian street vendor who could no longer feed his family set himself on fire in protest."

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Hindsight? by Joce640k · 2014-02-19 21:00 · Score: 4, Insightful

Is that with hindsight or without?
How many "models" are going unreported because they didn't work out too well?

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1. Re:Hindsight? by sjwt · 2014-02-19 21:06 · Score: 2, Interesting
  
  Its worse then that, their little graph only shows a handful of riots that they want to be on their.
  I dont see any riots that do not meet their own agenda on it, hell the french riot a few times every year, I see none of the Australian riots I know of.
  Total BS
  
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2. Re:Hindsight? by ChadSmith4920 · 2014-02-19 21:08 · Score: 5, Funny
  
  Models don't eat anyways
3. Re:Hindsight? by Splab · 2014-02-19 21:24 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  Racists much?
  Currently there are massive riots in The Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand; signs of growing civil unrest in central Europe - reports of riots in Brazil; All countries of course known for their muslim leadership...
4. Re:Hindsight? by whistlingtony · 2014-02-19 21:51 · Score: 4, Funny
  
  Hint. when denying racism, it's usually best to avoid using racist words in the same post. "Muzzies" indeed
5. Re:Hindsight? by Anonymous Coward · 2014-02-19 22:17 · Score: 5, Informative
  
  Islam is a religion not a race. Hence the term Muslim, which means a follower of Islam, is not a racial term. "Muzzies" would however fall under the definition of bigotry though. Which is similar but not quite the same as racism.
6. Re:Hindsight? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · 2014-02-19 23:44 · Score: 3, Insightful
  
  I dont see any riots that do not meet their own agenda on it
  Or, they're simply trying to demonstrate that lack of food security causes riots, not that all riots are caused by lack of food security.
  
  --
  Ezekiel 23:20
7. Re:Hindsight? by Atzanteol · 2014-02-20 01:25 · Score: 2
  
  It's pretty obvious you're using "muslim" to mean "middle-eastern." Being "technically correct" doesn't really matter in casual conversation. You're a dick either way - we're just debating how to describe what *kind* of dick you are at this point.
  
  --
  "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"
  
  - Charles Darwin
8. Re:Hindsight? by TapeCutter · 2014-02-20 01:50 · Score: 2
  
  It's said that there are "three dinners between civilization and anarchy".
  
  --
  And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
9. Re:Hindsight? by bluegutang · 2014-02-20 03:22 · Score: 2
  
  Islam is a religion not a race. Hence the term Muslim, which means a follower of Islam, is not a racial term.
  
  It's not quite that simple in practice. In Lebanon the main communities are Sunnis, Shiites, Christians and Druze. Each community includes many non-religious people and some who would describe themselves as atheists. But if you were born into the Sunni community, then your family is Sunni, the militia defending you is Sunni, and the militias attacking you are probably Shiite or Christian. That's your identity, regardless what you think about theological issues. It may not be a "race", but it's certainly an ethnicity. Not just a belief or point of view.
Foundation by Anonymous Coward · 2014-02-19 21:03 · Score: 2

hari seldon did that first with psychohistory I seem to recall..
Your masters will learn to tune the system by nut · 2014-02-19 21:09 · Score: 4, Insightful

What worries me about this sort of knowledge, is that it could make it possible for political leaders to keep the masses working their asses off just above the breadline. But they can avoid pushing it so far that they get the kind of political activism that might result in regime change.

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1. Re:Your masters will learn to tune the system by BlackPignouf · 2014-02-19 22:03 · Score: 4, Informative
  
  it could ???
  "Bread and circuses" is a 2000 years old expression.
The lord giveth... by Anonymous Coward · 2014-02-19 21:51 · Score: 4, Interesting

Meanwhile, here in Norway the VAT for food items was reduced from 25% down to half. The consumers didn't notice because the shops just pocketed the difference and pretended nothing had happened.
Everything is not always the govt's fault.
1. Re:The lord giveth... by marcosdumay · 2014-02-20 03:00 · Score: 2
  
  Looks like there wasn't enough competition on the market.
  Let me guess, the tax was reduced by a complex procedure that applied to some business and not others, and was too expensive for small business to follow anyway. Am I right?
  
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  Rethinking email
Predicted two years ago, it works. by esldude · 2014-02-19 22:01 · Score: 4, Informative

http://news.slashdot.org/story... A rare instance of getting it right. This very prediction was predicted before the riots happened. Predicted when, and wasn't too terribly far off I suppose. Of course slashdot having no memory didn't even realize it was already covered.
1. Re:Predicted two years ago, it works. by Atzanteol · 2014-02-20 01:28 · Score: 3, Interesting
  
  Getting it right is easy. Not getting it wrong is hard. What is the false positive rate for this model? How many uprisings did it miss?
  Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...
  
  --
  "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"
  
  - Charles Darwin
Re:Callous knobhead by benjfowler · 2014-02-19 22:15 · Score: 2, Insightful

Oohhhh, and if we don't always, constantly show "empathy" (and of course, soon after, give free money and lebensraum to people who fuck up, and want everyone else to take responsibility for it) for others, we are BAD people.
Right.
This place is turning into a low-rent knockoff of Comment Is Free.
Fuck "empathy". If Third World assholes can't keep their legs crossed and they end up in a Malthusian catastrophe, why should we bail them out.
Re:Foundation and Empire by rusty0101 · 2014-02-19 22:28 · Score: 2

But even he was unable to forsee the Mule.

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My formula by erroneus · 2014-02-19 22:33 · Score: 2

AngryPeople + BadGovernment = Uprising
Just as much by Chrisq · 2014-02-19 22:38 · Score: 4, Insightful

Racist much? Maybe not. Islamaphobic much, though?
If you mean hating an ideology that wants to subdue or kill all others then I suppose I am just as islamaphobic as the allies in WWII were naziphobic.
1. Re:Just as much by Opportunist · 2014-02-20 01:13 · Score: 3, Insightful
  
  Actually, most Muslims are by no means radical. Quite a few are pissed at the radical asshats who give the whole bunch a bad name. And bluntly, most of the "radicals" don't give a shit about Islam actually. They just noticed that this is how they get us to listen. Just say "I'm gonna bomb your $place" and suddenly the "Westener" shuts up and listens. They found out that this works. Not only that, but that we start apologizing for "insulting" them. So anything we do or say is suddenly an insult.
  Fuck it!
  If you don't wanna see caricatures of your prophet, you can do what I did because I didn't like "2 girls 1 cup". I simply didn't look. Yes, whoever looks at it is a sicko, or for you, dear Islamist, a heretic but guess what, it's none of your business. I will not apologize for not being like you want me to be. Why? Because in my country where I live I can be the way I want to be! If I come to some country where the Islam is considered the state religion, I will of course heed the laws there and yes, that means that I will certainly not show around caricatures of your Prophet, because that's not allowed there. No problem. Your country, your rules.
  But my country, my rules! And it's gonna be a very cold day in HELL before I let some radical, religious idiot rule my country.
  (which is, btw, also a reason why I'd rather not move to the US)
  
  --
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Re:Populations go up... by qbast · 2014-02-19 22:53 · Score: 2

Efficiency goes up as well. Today 10 farmers or 10 hectares can produce much more food than it could 300 years ago.
I call BS... by captainpanic · 2014-02-20 00:25 · Score: 5, Insightful

In 2006, the food index was only 127. Yet, there were 15 large scale riots, 9 large scale strikes, 6 wars, of which at least 2 new wars in 2006, and countless other conflicts not mentioned on the wikipedia page about conflicts in 2006. And I just picked a random year.
Conflicts (general): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
Strikes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
Riots: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
Food index: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsi...
1. Re:I call BS... by Anubis+IV · 2014-02-20 03:49 · Score: 2
  
  Indeed. With a world as large and complex as we have, there are virtually always conflicts that can be cited as happening at any given time. Being able to point out that some happened when a particular trigger condition was met does not in an of itself even demonstrate correlation, let alone causation.
Re:Instant moral judgement... by flyneye · 2014-02-20 00:35 · Score: 2

Nah, this is just /.
Kinda remind you of slam dancing in the pit, back in the 80s/90s.But with fewer skinheads.

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Re:Callous knobhead by Opportunist · 2014-02-20 00:59 · Score: 4, Interesting

But it's ok to bail out banks that can't keep their act together and invest sensibly, right?

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We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Re:Populations go up... by Opportunist · 2014-02-20 01:01 · Score: 2

Wait, your insurance covers birth control but not viagra?
What magical country is that that is run by women instead of old, impotent assholes?

--
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Drought by TapeCutter · 2014-02-20 01:46 · Score: 2

It's neither of those things. The fertile crescent and parts of N Africa suffered a sever drought which coincided with the GFC. 10% of Syria's population was internally displaced between 2007-2011, forced off their farm and into the cities. The cables leaked by Snowden included a (correct) prediction of civil war in Syria due to the internal displacement, the diplomat even correctly predicted the city where it started.

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And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Chavez was elected, he didn't gain power in a coup by Elder+Entropist · 2014-02-20 05:10 · Score: 4, Informative

He attempted a coup in 1992, but that failed.
He gained the presidency though legitimate elections in 1998.
Though he certainly wasn't very committed to democracy while in power.