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Math Models Predicted Global Uprisings

Posted by samzenpus on from the no-food-no-peace dept.

retroworks writes "Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe. Sure enough, we're seeing them now. The paper's author, Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price index—a measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over time—and found that whenever it rose above 210, riots broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian street vendor who could no longer feed his family set himself on fire in protest."

16 of 265 comments (clear)

  1. Hindsight? by Joce640k · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Is that with hindsight or without?

    How many "models" are going unreported because they didn't work out too well?

    --
    No sig today...
    1. Re:Hindsight? by ChadSmith4920 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Models don't eat anyways

    2. Re:Hindsight? by Splab · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Racists much?

      Currently there are massive riots in The Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand; signs of growing civil unrest in central Europe - reports of riots in Brazil; All countries of course known for their muslim leadership...

    3. Re:Hindsight? by whistlingtony · · Score: 4, Funny

      Hint. when denying racism, it's usually best to avoid using racist words in the same post. "Muzzies" indeed

    4. Re:Hindsight? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      Islam is a religion not a race. Hence the term Muslim, which means a follower of Islam, is not a racial term. "Muzzies" would however fall under the definition of bigotry though. Which is similar but not quite the same as racism.

    5. Re:Hindsight? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I dont see any riots that do not meet their own agenda on it

      Or, they're simply trying to demonstrate that lack of food security causes riots, not that all riots are caused by lack of food security.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
  2. Your masters will learn to tune the system by nut · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What worries me about this sort of knowledge, is that it could make it possible for political leaders to keep the masses working their asses off just above the breadline. But they can avoid pushing it so far that they get the kind of political activism that might result in regime change.

    --
    Never trust a man in a blue trench coat, Never drive a car when you're dead
    1. Re:Your masters will learn to tune the system by BlackPignouf · · Score: 4, Informative

      it could ???
      "Bread and circuses" is a 2000 years old expression.

  3. The lord giveth... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Meanwhile, here in Norway the VAT for food items was reduced from 25% down to half. The consumers didn't notice because the shops just pocketed the difference and pretended nothing had happened.

    Everything is not always the govt's fault.

  4. Predicted two years ago, it works. by esldude · · Score: 4, Informative

    http://news.slashdot.org/story... A rare instance of getting it right. This very prediction was predicted before the riots happened. Predicted when, and wasn't too terribly far off I suppose. Of course slashdot having no memory didn't even realize it was already covered.

    1. Re:Predicted two years ago, it works. by Atzanteol · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Getting it right is easy. Not getting it wrong is hard. What is the false positive rate for this model? How many uprisings did it miss?

      Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

      --
      "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

      - Charles Darwin
  5. Just as much by Chrisq · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Racist much? Maybe not. Islamaphobic much, though?

    If you mean hating an ideology that wants to subdue or kill all others then I suppose I am just as islamaphobic as the allies in WWII were naziphobic.

    1. Re:Just as much by Opportunist · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, most Muslims are by no means radical. Quite a few are pissed at the radical asshats who give the whole bunch a bad name. And bluntly, most of the "radicals" don't give a shit about Islam actually. They just noticed that this is how they get us to listen. Just say "I'm gonna bomb your $place" and suddenly the "Westener" shuts up and listens. They found out that this works. Not only that, but that we start apologizing for "insulting" them. So anything we do or say is suddenly an insult.

      Fuck it!

      If you don't wanna see caricatures of your prophet, you can do what I did because I didn't like "2 girls 1 cup". I simply didn't look. Yes, whoever looks at it is a sicko, or for you, dear Islamist, a heretic but guess what, it's none of your business. I will not apologize for not being like you want me to be. Why? Because in my country where I live I can be the way I want to be! If I come to some country where the Islam is considered the state religion, I will of course heed the laws there and yes, that means that I will certainly not show around caricatures of your Prophet, because that's not allowed there. No problem. Your country, your rules.

      But my country, my rules! And it's gonna be a very cold day in HELL before I let some radical, religious idiot rule my country.

      (which is, btw, also a reason why I'd rather not move to the US)

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  6. I call BS... by captainpanic · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In 2006, the food index was only 127. Yet, there were 15 large scale riots, 9 large scale strikes, 6 wars, of which at least 2 new wars in 2006, and countless other conflicts not mentioned on the wikipedia page about conflicts in 2006. And I just picked a random year.

    Conflicts (general): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
    Strikes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
    Riots: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
    Food index: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsi...

  7. Re:Callous knobhead by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Interesting

    But it's ok to bail out banks that can't keep their act together and invest sensibly, right?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  8. Chavez was elected, he didn't gain power in a coup by Elder+Entropist · · Score: 4, Informative

    He attempted a coup in 1992, but that failed.

    He gained the presidency though legitimate elections in 1998.

    Though he certainly wasn't very committed to democracy while in power.