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Blood Test of 4 Biomarkers Predicts Death Within 5 Years
retroworks writes "The NHS and the Daily Telegraph report on two studies (original and repeat duplicating results) in Estonia and Finland which predict whether an apparently healthy human will likely die within 5 years. The four biomarkers that appeared to determine risk of mortality in the next five years were: alpha-1-acid glycoprotein – a protein that is raised during infection and inflammation; albumin – a protein that carries vital nutrients, hormones and proteins in the bloodstream; very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particle size – usually known for being 'very bad' cholesterol; and citrate – a compound that is an essential part of the body's metabolism. Researchers found that people in the top 20% of the summary score range were 19 times more at risk of dying in the next five years than people in the lowest 20%."
The NHS's summary of the news points out that "the implications of such a test are unclear. As this was an observational study, it can only show an association between the biomarkers and risk of death. It does not predict what the underlying cause of death would be for an individual and does not therefore provide an answer in terms of treatment."
This should be very helpful to the insurance industry in determining risk.
Looks like the NHS link was missing a dash: http://www.nhs.uk/news/2014/02...
You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
Didn't Heinlein write a short story about something similar? "Life-Line" I think it was called.
Hoist Number One and Number Six.
First, correlation will not tell you causes. Second, correlation does not necessary make individual outcome predictions possible.
For example, out of population that have bad scores on this test mortality may be 19 times higher, but for any given individual it does not necessary means they are going to die in 5 years, or event that they are significantly more likely to die in 5 years.
Death is a quite rare thing; ignoring age and other factors, the probability of someone to die within five years is less than 5%. Even when you belong to the top 20% in terms of risk, the probability of death is just 15%, so you're much more likely to be alive than dead after this time. And for what it's worth, the biomarkers are strongly correlated with other factors like "does this person have cancer?", so that in the end the authors say that their new model is just 4% better than previously used models.
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What it definitly is not is some sort of quantum state indicating that the body is about to undergo soul removal.
Unless it also predicts that the person in question will become a politician within the next 5 years.
Uh, no.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/in...
Here is a link to the Daily Telegraph article.
...and here's the link to the article on NHS.
Of the top 10 causes of death in the world, according to the WHO, ischemic heart disease and stroke kill more people than the other 8 combined. Doctors already knew that bad cholesterol (ldl/vldl) and inflamation were the leading cause of both of those and have known for decades. The study doesn't show anything that wasn't already known and just adds sensationalism, probably to get increased funding.
The study doesn't "predict death within 5 years" it doesn't even predict death for those with the biomarkers. All it says is people who had higher levels of the biomarkers exhibited a greater risk of dying within 5 years than those with lower levels; according the TFA the study didn't even claim a causal relationship between the markers and a cause of death. Of course, a headline that reads "Study should some people have a higher risk of dying in 5 years than others..." wouldn't be as catchy.
I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.