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Study: Earthlings Not Ready For Alien Encounters, Yet

astroengine (1577233) writes "The people of planet Earth would be wise to raise their cosmic consciousness prior to contact with an extraterrestrial civilization, a new study shows. 'The scientific community now accepts to some degree that this contact may occur in the next 50 to 100 years,' said Gabriel De la Torre, a clinical neuropsychologist and human factors specialist at the University of Cádiz in Spain. 'Consequently, we are becoming more concerned about this possibility and its aftermath Certainly the topic of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations raises a number of questions that are not easy to answer. We estimate that this type of event will have not only a social effect, but also on both consciousness and biology as well.' Although we may not have the necessary social skill set to deal with an encounter of the third kind, scientists or astronauts might make the best candidates for the first alien conversation."

73 of 453 comments (clear)

  1. next 50 to 100 years? by rubycodez · · Score: 4, Insightful

    based on scanning we are doing of star systems out to thousands of light years? even if we find a sign of ET intelligent life, we have light-centuries to light-millennia of speed-of-light buffer time to protect ourselves after "they" discover our presence, before "contact" of any kind could be made

    1. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by TheNarrator · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That assumes that we know as much physics as they do. They might be using some medium to communicate that we haven't even discovered yet.

    2. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by rmdingler · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Remotely near, harmless advanced alien life capable of interstellar travel would leave us alone for a few more centuries whilst we iron out this leftover primal aggression and god fallacy..

      Remotely near, exploitative advanced alien life would have already arrived and , well, exploited us and our resources.

      Depending on how far down along the great filter we find ourselves, we are quite plausibly the Universe's best hope for intergalactic explorer, settler, and exploiter. Deal with that.

      --
      Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

      Ernest Hemingway

    3. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Stephen Hawking once said that if aliens visit us they will most likely not be friendly. Whether or not he is right is irrelevant because the aliens aren't coming. Ever.

      The idea of aliens coming to earth has been the subject of countless novels, movies and televison shows, and even though those stories are entirely fictional, they have greatly influenced the way we think about the idea of encountering beings from other worlds. Unfortunately, our thinking on this subject is very small and limited. If we step back and think a little bigger, we will realize that any aliens with the ability to come visit us almost certainly would not care to.

      Sci-fi stories can ignore the bits that aren't very interesting. Movie aliens rarely get sick or worry about eating. Sci-fi stories rarely mention gravity because, given our limited view, we expect gravity to just work and shooting a movie without it would be a pain. So, screw it, all movie aliens have invented artificial gravity. After all, warp-drive engines and pew-pew energy-blasters are much more fun to think about.

      In the real world, however, science tends to advance in all directions, because advances in one field almost always results in advances in many others. For example, the invention of the computer accelerated all other fields of human science.

      A race of aliens capable of reaching earth has, at a minimum, perfected faster-than-light travel (or perfected a way to travel for thousands of years at sub-light), conquered the long term biological effects of space radiation, and mastered extreme long distance space navigation, just so they can come to earth and . . . . . what? Steal our water? Study us?

      So why *WOULD* aliens come to earth?

      Do they really want our water (or minerals or whatever)? That implies an economic model in their decision. By definition, they need and value those resources and coming here to get them is their most economical choice. Getting them somewhere closer to home or manufacturing them must be more "expensive" (in some sense of the word) than the cost of traveling all the way here, gathering our resources and flying them home.

      While not impossible, that seems unlikely - both technologically and economically. Even we have (expensively) already mastered alchemy. We have the tech to create matter from energy. Imagine that tech in a few hundred years, or whenever it is you think we'll be able to travel several light years for a mining expedition. What would be cheaper and better, making stuff at home or building a fleet of galactic warships and sending them (along with thousands of soldiers and miners) to some far off planet?

      Currently, getting to Proxima Centauri (the closest star outside our solar system) in less than a few hundred years would require technolgy that is several orders of magnitude beyond what we have now. If getting humans to another star system is a 100 on some "technology ability scale", then we're currently at about 2, which is not far ahead of poodles who are probably at 1.

      What about the idea that aliens might come to Earth to colonize the planet (and maybe vaporize us in the process)? You could argue that terraforming (or maybe aliens would call it xenoforming) could be a technology more advanced than FTL travel. With that assumption, you could imagine an alien race that can travel across the galaxy but not alter planets to suit their biological needs. Coming to colonize Earth could make sense. But this ignores the fact that several other requisite technologies would probably make their need to colonize obsolete.

      Before they had FTL travel, they likely spent many decades traveling at less that light speed and so chances are their ships are quite comfortable. In fact probably more like sailing biodomes than ships - someplace they could live indefinitely. Assuming their other scientists were hard at work while their engineers were busy perfecting FTL, stuff like air and food have long been technologied away.

      The only thing something like Ear

    4. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by MouseTheLuckyDog · · Score: 2

      No, but they think they do.

    5. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by rogoshen1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      suppose for a second that 'greed' is an evolutionary construct -- which i think is plausible (IE, organisms acting in their own self interest, possibly with some altruistic tendencies towards members of it's own species in higher order critters).

      Is it unreasonable to assume that the evolutionary pressures that led to humans with our 'greed' and desire to dominate would also come into play on another planet with a different set of starting conditions? IE, they might not look like us, or share the same chemical building blocks, but they'd certainly act like us.

      The idea that we as a species are some kind of petulant greedy child just needing to grow up a bit might not be accurate -- it might be baked into our DNA, and by extension other alien life would have the same tendencies: Overuse and over extension of resources, a desire to explore and 'conquer'.. climbing the galactic Mount Everest because it's 'there'.

    6. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Charliemopps · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Well, I'd argue it like this: The only means of interstellar communication we know of so far is Electromagnetic waves. With the number of stars in the sky, it's pretty clear that the number of intelligent civilizations out there has to be infinite. Yet the sky is not saturated with their communications. So therefor those civilizations must be using some other technology. Now if they are communicating with entangled particles, we're kind of screwed. You can't eves drop on that. But all the science has so far lead us to believe that you can't actually communicate this way.

      But now we're starting to find other fields we could use. Gravity wave detectors are getting better and better. There's the higgs field. Maybe we'll find some other new and interesting ways to relay information. But our tech is advancing at an almost exponential rate now, so I think it's entirely plausible that in the next 100 years we finally figure out how advanced life transmits information long distances. It's probably in some way encrypted so we may just hear noise, but at least we'll know it's there.

    7. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Camel+Pilot · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I agree ET would have similar behavior... if they are technically advanced they would most certainly be social, curious and have empathy.

    8. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 2

      That assumes that we know as much physics as they do. They might be using some medium to communicate that we haven't even discovered yet.

      Certainly possible. But then, who of us could receive it?

      Probably all of us would receive it.

      After all, they would understand our limitations, by virtue of examining our transmissions, and adjust their transmissions accordingly.

      You're assuming they would want to talk to us at all. Perhaps we are too backward to even bother saying hello to. Or perhaps they are preparing a sneak attack. Granted, we have little that could harm an advanced race, but why give us a couple of decades to prepare. If they've been watching us, they would certainly have figured out that humans are pretty good at finding creative ways of killing things when threatened.

    9. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by lister+king+of+smeg · · Score: 2

      If their hypothetical communications are encrypted then it would look like random noise could that not then simply be interpreted as more noise in the cosmic microwave background radiation?

      --
      ---Saying gnome 3 is better than windows 8 not so much a compliment as it is damning with light praise.
    10. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 2

      I agree ET would have similar behavior... if they are technically advanced they would most certainly be social, curious and have empathy.

      And if they evolved from something analogous to ants, how much empathy do you think they will have?

    11. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by NotSanguine · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That assumes that we know as much physics as they do. They might be using some medium to communicate that we haven't even discovered yet.

      Certainly possible. But then, who of us could receive it?

      Probably all of us would receive it.

      After all, they would understand our limitations, by virtue of examining our transmissions, and adjust their transmissions accordingly.

      You're assuming they would want to talk to us at all. Perhaps we are too backward to even bother saying hello to. Or perhaps they are preparing a sneak attack. Granted, we have little that could harm an advanced race, but why give us a couple of decades to prepare. If they've been watching us, they would certainly have figured out that humans are pretty good at finding creative ways of killing things when threatened.

      Actually, they wouldn't need to be all that much more advanced than we are militarily. We sit at the bottom of a gravity well. As Heinlein suggested in The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, they could just "throw rocks" at us.

      Not very high tech, is it?

      Getting here is a completely different story, but the thought that extraterrestrial intelligence would need to be enormously more technologically advanced than we are is just not true. We (in cosmological terms) aren't so far off from creating devices that can autonomously manufacture machines to mine the moon or asteroids for rocks that can be set on intersecting trajectories with the Earth. Presumably, any intelligence that can build an autonomous probe capable of reaching us, could include that sort of technology in the probe. Berserkers are an (albeit fictional) example.

      --
      No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr
    12. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by arth1 · · Score: 2

      Well, I'd argue it like this: The only means of interstellar communication we know of so far is Electromagnetic waves.

      Well, no. We can fire off particles with mass (unlike the photons in electromagnetic waves), from a particle accelerator. Whether they can be "heard" over the cosmic ray noise is a different matter, but then again, EM suffers the same problem. That's a receptor problem, not a transmission problem.

      And interstellar vessels like the Voyager, Pioneer and New Horizons. They're a tad slow, but do qualify as interstellar communication. :)

    13. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by DarwinSurvivor · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Who says the other communication method can't be detected in other ways? A very simple example is using focused EM (or otherwise) radiation to cause a bush to catch fire (and thus produce smoke). Perhaps they have a technology that could disrupt EM radiation, alter the colour spectrum in select areas, vibrate objects to produce sound. Those would definitely be detectable by us. Even if we would have no way to respond along their medium, they could potentially instruct us how to build a transmitter.

    14. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by arth1 · · Score: 2

      A sufficiently advanced entity may have the ability to travel faster than light.

      Fermi's paradox says otherwise - where are they?
      If FTL (and thus time travel) were possible, we should have plenty of evidence for it.

    15. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Jason+Levine · · Score: 5, Interesting

      They don't even have to reveal themselves to us (and thus risk some sort of counterattack). If they are patient enough, they could park a ship in the asteroid belt and fire a few asteroids in our direction. A few years later, the asteroids would come crashing down on Earth. To us, it would look like a completely natural event, albeit one with disastrous consequences for our civilization. The last human alive could die without ever having known that alien life not only exists, but killed off humanity.

      --
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    16. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by RubberDogBone · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Greed about what? What would we, either as a race of creatures, or as a populated biosphere, or even as the raw planet itself, what would we have that an advanced race could not find somewhere else for less hassle?

      This assumes advanced races couldn't just do "magic" with materials sciences and simply make whatever they needed. If they still need raw material, why come here?

      Water? We know there's a LOT of it out there. Our own Oort cloud could be mined for water for close to forever and we wouldn't know about it or be able to do anything. They won't need our oceans.

      Gold? Metals? Asteroids. Free. Nobody with spears guarding them. They don't need your dental fillings.

      Food? Oh come on, advanced races surely have sorted out getting rid of biological needs like food and waste processing. So they won't need to eat us.

      Reproduction? Laughable. Our reproductive process is ridiculous. And probably not compatible. We don't have horse-humans running around and our DNA is already close to the horse DNA. Alien DNA won't be that similar. It would have to be modified, tested, modified more, tested more, to get to a viable hybrid. Hmmm....

      Toys? Now this is really the only reason for them to come here. A set of living toys. If all we are to aliens is a set of toys, then we have no hope. This is worse than if they wanted to come here to eat us and take our water. Being a toy means we're only here until somebody decides they want new toys.

      --
      Sig for hire.
    17. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 3, Informative

      The main problem is we know other lifeforms evolved on this planet before us, and we're not the oldest planetary system out there. Unless there is an absurd statistical imbalance in the formation of actual Earth-like planets - which survey data suggests is very unlikely - then the conditions were ripe for complex multi-cellular life to arise for billions of years prior to humans coming on the scene.

    18. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Wycliffe · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If FTL travel is possible then FTL communication is possible and they would presumably be using some
      form of FTL communication channel which we have no knowledge of and therefore can't detect.

      If FTL travel is not possible then we are stuck on this rock and they on theirs and it doesn't really matter
      much if we discover another civilization 1000 light years away as interaction will be minimal.

      Anyone sufficiently advanced to communicate in any meaningful way we should be very very scared of
      because that means they are far far more advanced than we are. They either have FTL travel or some
      means of traveling great distances while we have neither.

    19. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by evilviper · · Score: 5, Insightful

      With the number of stars in the sky, it's pretty clear that the number of intelligent civilizations out there has to be infinite.

      Nonsense. That's purely wishful thinking.

      We have precisely ONE example of abiogenesis. That's statistically insignificant, so we have NO POSSIBLE WAY to extrapolate out how likely or unlikely it is to happen anywhere else.

      We do not have any evidence that it happened a second time in the history of Earth, otherwise we'd see crazy branches in DNA trees. We have not made it happen in a lab, so that we'd have the faintest concept of how difficult it would be.

      We similarly have only one example of higher life-forms developing from the lower life-forms... Again, no sign in the DNA tree that it happened, independently, twice, so that might be a pretty rare and difficult thing, itself.

      And finally, we have just one example of those higher life-forms becoming sentient beings, in the form of humans. As smart as dolphins may be, they're not building radios or space ships. Same goes for millions of years of dinosaurs. Why don't we see left-over buildings constructed by smart, pre-human animals? Probably weren't any other sentiences on Earth.

      So there you've got 3-in-a-row long-shots... If each is a billion-to-one shot, the combined odds would be a stretch of happening more than once, even with trillions of planets out there. But that's just as much of a wild-assed guess as yours...

      It seems to be wishful thinking that people WANT to have, not just life, not just higher life-forms, and not just sentient life out there, but sentient life that's much more advanced than us. Creatures that are going to swoop in, give us advanced technology, and solve all our problems for us. No matter how little we know of the odds, many people will just keep assuming they're out there, because they WANT it to be true.

      Meanwhile, nobody has solved the Drake Equation, to actually give us the correct odds of either extreme.

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    20. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by JRV31 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Our messages are transmitted over a carrier signal that is very obvious, even if the data is encrypted.

      It's more than just the encryption, you also need to figure out the alphabet. Even if you figure out that 01000001 means "A" what does "A" mean?

    21. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Zebai · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think I have to comment on this one. Say your right, there is 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance of even micro organisms being on another planet, and another 1 in billion of it being intelligent. That would still leave chances of life to be in the BILLIONS and we can't even see all of it because the light takes so long to travel the birth of distant stars from billions of years ago hasn't even reached us yet. As long as the chance is not 0% which it is not because we are here then some where in the universe there are other intelligent life forms however our chance of ever being able find them are equally infinitesimal.

    22. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by dryeo · · Score: 2

      If it happened once, and us being here is pretty good evidence that abiogenesis did happen, then in an infinite universe it must have happened infinite times. Of course those other times may not have been in the finite visible universe.
      As for sentience, I think what you actually mean is technological life. Life could be sentient and never interested in technology or only minimally interested in technology. Has to be capable too, an octopus might be sentient but living under water is limiting and not having families to propagate a culture is also limiting when it comes to producing much technology.

      --
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    23. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by LionKimbro · · Score: 2

      FUTHERMORE. The size of the universe is unknown. Furthermore: By present estimates, the universe is near uniformly "flat." That means, you go to the edge of the visible universe on one side, and you do *not* wrap around "the other side." Rather, there's more universe past what we can see. If the universe were infinite in all directions, it'd be completely consistent with known measurements. If the universe is infinite in all directions, we can absolutely count on there being intelligent life way, way out there.

    24. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by amorsen · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Communications are likely to be point-to-point, and we only get to catch the signal if it randomly points at us for a moment.

      We emit lots of radar, and we could be easily detected that way, but military radar is going spread-spectrum or passive and civilian radar is relying more and more on active transponders. If we fixed our light pollution as well, intelligent life on Earth would be quite well hidden.

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    25. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by evilviper · · Score: 2

      Except you missed a whole other billion in there, leaving the odds of it EVER happening (in this universe) just in the single-digits or perhaps the teens.

      Besides, my whole point was that 1 example can't be used to extrapolate ANY odds, big or small. The odds could be 1 in 500 trillion, or one in 10. We don't have a clue, and making a guess either way is a utterly baseless, bald-assed assumption.

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    26. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by evilviper · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The Universe is NOT infinite. It is unimaginably, astronomically ginormous, but decidedly finite. If it was infinite, the Big Bang theory couldn't work.

      And since the Universe is finite, it's absolutely possible for odds to be so long, that something (or a series of interdependant somethings) is unlikely to have happened more than once. Whether that's true of advanced life remains to be seen, but is entirely possible.

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    27. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by lurcher · · Score: 2

      Our messages are transmitted over a carrier signal that is very obvious, even if the data is encrypted.

      Not so sure, if someone from the 50's recieved a 16-QAM signal, it would look very like noise. But more and more of our comm's are now either short range, point to point or not using RF.

    28. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      It's more than just the encryption, you also need to figure out the alphabet. Even if you figure out that 01000001 means "A" what does "A" mean?

      It's the first letter of the alphabet, dipshit.

    29. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by arvindsg · · Score: 2

      Trillions of planets is a huge underestimate with 10^11 galaxies in our observable universe each with about 10^11 stars

    30. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by dreamchaser · · Score: 2

      Nothing is infinite. There could be billions of intelligent species but that's still a finite number, and it the vastness of the observable Universe they could still be scattered so far and wide that we'll never contact or detect them. The simplest answer to the observation of no intelligent communications going on is there is nobody intelligent anywhere near close to us for us to detect their transmissions. It's certainly not that they are all using some magical form of communication that may or may not even be possible.

    31. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by dogvomit · · Score: 3, Informative

      The Universe is NOT infinite. It is unimaginably, astronomically ginormous, but decidedly finite. If it was infinite, the Big Bang theory couldn't work.

      That is not correct. The preponderance of data are consistent with an infinite flat universe and there is nothing about an infinite flat universe that is inconsistent with big bang cosmology.

      See, for example:
      http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/unive...
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

    32. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Aphadon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There's a very interesting xkcd what-if on this. Turns out nowadays aliens would have a better chance at finding us based on the reflected light anomalies created by our atmosphere, rather than picking up radio transmissions.

    33. Re: next 50 to 100 years? by evilviper · · Score: 2

      The odds against advanced life sprouting up could very well be equally countless. You can't fill in half of the Drake equation, and just assume the other half are some numbers you'd prefer.

      Then you run up against Fermi's paradox. Occam's razor says my explanation is better than yours.

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    34. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by AthanasiusKircher · · Score: 2

      The main problem is we know other lifeforms evolved on this planet before us, and we're not the oldest planetary system out there.

      Anecdote is not data.

      Unless there is an absurd statistical imbalance in the formation of actual Earth-like planets - which survey data suggests is very unlikely - then the conditions were ripe for complex multi-cellular life to arise

      Yeah, here's the problem: what, precisely, is "Earth-like"? Or, specifically, what is "Earth-like" enough that life is statistically likely (or even possible) to arise?

      If you made your argument 50 or 60 years ago to most scientists, you'd be laughed out of the room. The idea that the universe was teeming with life just seemed a bit absurd, and not only because of religious views. Even if there were other stars and other galaxies, speculating about what was there just seemed like science fiction.

      And precisely what has changed since then, other than people like Carl Sagan and other proponents of SETI convincing us to take sci-fi more seriously (not based on much evidence)?

      Yes, we've verified that planets outside our solar system actually exist, but I doubt most astronomers 60 years ago would have assumed otherwise. And we've done experiments (beginning with the Miller-Urey experiment) that show that amino acids and various other organic molecules could form in what we assume was early Earth's chemistry.

      But producing a few spontaneous amino acids is a far cry from abiogenesis. I know there is further speculative research trying to sort out how various processes might have led to spontaneous order arising, but there are A LOT of steps between amino acids and a self-replicating cell. Precisely which "Earth-like" conditions would be necessary to allow those things to happen? Given that we haven't sorted out all the details, it's really hard to know.

      Sure, it could be that most planets with some vague approximation to the right chemical mix will produce life over a period of a billion years or so. But it could also be that conditions needed to be much more specific, or even that some crazy set of things came together for a very short time window to make it work out on Earth. So, the probability that an "Earth-like" planet according to your specifications might form life could be 90%, or it could be 1 in a billion or a trillion or a quadrillion. Life could be present around neighboring stars, or it could be more like once per galaxy, or it could be that we truly are unique.

      I'm not saying it's likely that we're unique; I'm saying that we have only one data point to extrapolate from. Until we actually find life somewhere else, or it comes to us, or we mix together something in a lab and spontaneously generate a self-replicating cell, we're all just speculating.

      So, your assertion that "the conditions were ripe for complex multi-cellular life to arise" is nothing more than idle speculation. I agree that it seems pretty likely that once you have multicellular life, it is likely to evolve to more complex things. Evolution with self-replicating life as a response to environmental conditions makes sense, and it has been actually observed on a smaller scale. But the problem is getting to that self-replicating life in the first place. People are working on theories to explain that, but we simply have no idea what the probability is. Thus anyone who claims to be able to use the Drake equation to produce a realistic estimate is full of crap.

    35. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Mariner28 · · Score: 2

      Encryption on a link, however good, looks not like white noise but like "pink" noise - as it isn't truly random. Just as we're getting better at detecting gravity waves, the Higgs field, we'll eventually be able to separate pseudo-random "pink" noise from the cosmic background radiation. Another problem will be the fact that for the galactic Internet, the current IPv8 standard is running out of addresses, so everyone's hiding private address behind NAT/PAT firewalls. The upside, though, is that even with IPSec encryption, we'd still be able to tell that there's a connection out there since the address headers will still have to be in the clear ;-)

      --
      "A little misunderstanding? Galileo and the Pope had a little misunderstanding."
    36. Re: next 50 to 100 years? by rubycodez · · Score: 3, Interesting

      based on your sample size of one? you are funny, the universe may be teaming with life, microbal life. That's all Earth had for the first 3.5 billion years, that may well be the norm and whatever freak accident made multicellular life never happens elsewhere

    37. Re:next 50 to 100 years? by Mike+Van+Pelt · · Score: 2

      Meanwhile, nobody has solved the Drake Equation, to actually give us the correct odds of either extreme.

      No, but one term in it, the probability of a star having planets, has recently been determined to be pretty close to 1.0.

      Doesn't tell us anything about abiogenesis, etc., of course.

  2. Study? by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What was this based on? Did the PI rent Independence Day from Redbox last week and suddenly get an idea to spin a humanities degree into notoriety?

    Stuff that *might* happen *might* lead to other stuff that *might* happen.

    Slashdot makes me want to throw my laptop against the wall and punch people. Gahhh....

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  3. ...what scientific community? by Rinikusu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And where are they getting their data?

    --
    If you were me, you'd be good lookin'. - six string samurai
  4. Re:It will be a disaster. by Lost+Race · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The human race is incapable of being second fiddle to any other life form,

    Nonsense. Look back at history and see the millions of humans who allowed themselves to be enslaved, subjugated, or otherwise oppressed. Humans are excellent at playing second fiddle.

    And much of that oppression / subjugation / slavery was based on race or religion, so it doesn't particularly matter if the new overlords are some new kind of "alien", and it doesn't matter what our gods tell us about them. If they stomp their boots on our necks hard enough we will kneel before them.

  5. Re:It doesn't matter by roc97007 · · Score: 2

    we can put a man on the moon, so...

    *Can* we? We could at one time. I have wondered for awhile if projects like putting a living person on another planet and returning them safely to earth is something that a nation can do only at a certain stage of development, when the thirst for adventure is greater than the perceived need for safety, and bureaucracy has not yet quite managed to strangle large undertakings.

    --
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  6. Re:Bullshit. by Intrepid+imaginaut · · Score: 2

    Ah that explains all those people they need to hold up the roofs of cathedrals.

  7. Huh? by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 4, Insightful

    'The scientific community now accepts to some degree that this contact may occur in the next 50 to 100 years,'

    Based on .... what, exactly? The complete, utter, absolute, comprehensive lack of any previous contact?

    1. Re:Huh? by Brett+Buck · · Score: 4, Funny

      Given that there is absolutely no evidence for aliens over last 4.8 billion years, I think we are due.

           

    2. Re:Huh? by Grog6 · · Score: 2

      FTA: apparently, If you pull enough shit out of your ass, you eventually get Aliens, lol.

      Nevermind the whole "Space is huge" thing, the no radio thing, and the lack of confirmed-non-whacko-sightings, Aliens it must be... :)

      --
      Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
    3. Re:Huh? by joe_frisch · · Score: 2

      note the "may".
      I completely agree, we may contact aliens in the next 50-100 years. The probability isn't zero.

  8. blinding me with science by swell · · Score: 4, Insightful

    - The scientific community now accepts to some degree -
    - a clinical neuropsychologist and human factors specialist -

    While some may prefer citations
    and some may prefer credentials that include some basic science skills,
    others will be happy to forge ahead with imaginative fantasies.

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
  9. Re:Human Beings... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2

    The one point in our favor, would be that a species capable of bridging the vast distances between the stars would presumably have vast technology and sufficiently advanced materials engineering and biological manipulation techniques that they would pretty much just need various useful atoms and lots and lots of energy. Our planet isn't worthless, in terms of material; but it's a hell of a lot less interesting than the solar system's larger objects in terms of volume, and it has a much more annoying escape velocity than the zillion-odd asteroids and comets and various bits of junk floating around.

    This hardly means that they wouldn't consume earth in due time, possibly without even remarking on the fact that some of the carbon based macromolecules on the surface seemed pretty agitated about it, nor does it exclude the possibility that they'd fuck us up in some creative way just for the lulz, or because their hobby is eating as many different sentient organisms as possible; but, unlike the 'technologically advanced human culture kicks the shit out of primitive one, takes their stuff' story of history, anything that is doing interstellar travel might be advanced to the point of near-total disinterest. Pop out of treknobabble-travel-space in the vicinity of the sun, do a bit of scanning, consume the gas giants to refuel their world-ships, then leave to go do whatever it is has them traveling all this way in the first place.

    Or they might drop a small singularity into our gravity well, just to watch us freak out on a global scale, knowing that it's sitting somewhere near the planet's core, steadily consuming it from the inside and there is nothing we can do except await an increasingly nasty series of geological upheavals and our inevitable doom; but that would be purely for spite's sake.

  10. crush us before we leave the nest by subtropolis · · Score: 2

    I think they would want to come here for the same reasons that we would want to investigate some other planet which shows strong signs of harbouring life. However, having seen how we have developed, it might not be too unlikely that they would at least consider destroying us before we've reached the point where we can leave our own solar system. Note: I've never even seen Independence Day. The notion that aliens would want to come all the way here just to destroy us had always seemed pretty silly to me. But upon further reflection i don't think it's at all silly now.

    --
    "Our interests are to see if we can't scale it up to something more exciting," he said.
    1. Re:crush us before we leave the nest by evilviper · · Score: 2

      The notion that aliens would want to come all the way here just to destroy us had always seemed pretty silly to me. But upon further reflection i don't think it's at all silly now.

      Do you feel an uncontrollable desire to nuke the African continent? If not, I can't see why a superior alien species would want to destroy our planet.

      If they're more advanced than us, they'll have cheap and easy defenses against anything we could do to them. And why wouldn't their technology continue to develop just as quickly as ours, so that they continue to maintain their vast superiority?

      Devastating conflicts tend to arise when two rivals are evenly matched. When one is much superior, the balance of power is obvious, and the weaker side doing something to anger the other, is just stupid, suicidal, and short-lived at worse.

      --
      Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
    2. Re:crush us before we leave the nest by Raenex · · Score: 2

      Do you feel an uncontrollable desire to nuke the African continent? If not, I can't see why a superior alien species would want to destroy our planet.

      At one point the US had a significant lead on the USSR in nuclear warfare. There were arguments that the US should preemptively strike, most famously by Von Neumann. This was a very real debate that took place in policy circles. An alternative history where the United States did so is quite plausible.

      And why wouldn't their technology continue to develop just as quickly as ours, so that they continue to maintain their vast superiority?

      That assumes you can keep a constant rate going. Despite Ray Kurzweil's "Rapture of the Nerds" (Singularity) ideas, it doesn't hold up. Just look at processor speeds. For decades they were exponentially improving -- until they hit a wall around 2002. Now we have multicores and more transistors, but it's not the same.

      Look at nuclear warfare. Once the Russians caught up, we couldn't maintain the initial vast supremacy.

  11. Re:It doesn't matter by Opportunist · · Score: 2

    This.

    The US of the 60s was a dream factory. Anything was possible, anything you could think of someone could make. And that someone was the US, no doubt about that. If anyone can, the US can. Notice how anything the US did was by default good and sacred? Even Vietnam, a war that had by some margin less tangible effects on Europe, had mixed reactions in good ol' Europe and quite a bit of support, rather than the unanimous opposition the current wars of the United States are met with.

    The US of the 60s could do anything in the mind of the people around the globe. In both senses, they were allowed to, and they were able to.

    The US of today qualify for neither.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  12. Re:It doesn't matter by RazorSharp · · Score: 2

    I would think the main constraint would be economic. What nation wants to commit so many resources for so little in return. The lunar missions were more important for political reasons (the Cold War) during their time than anything else. Would that thirst for adventure have existed had we not been competing with our red adversaries? It certainly wouldn't have had the urgency if not for the competition.

    The main thing the lunar missions gave us was the various technologies that were produced as a result of them. So far the moon hasn't proved to be worth mining and it certainly has no appeal for colonization.

    I could spend all my money on a giant diamond encrusted neckless. But my girlfriend would probably be real pissed and kick me out when I can no longer contribute. Similarly, our government could go back to the moon. But the electorate would be pissed because like an oversized diamond encrusted neckless it doesn't do anything but costs a shit ton. I guess it always sounds good to vilify the word bureaucracy and to make fun of nancys who are overly concerned with safety, but I just don't think it's a sound argument in this case.

    --
    "From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
  13. I hope they don't come too soon. by thatkid_2002 · · Score: 2

    A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow. -- Agent Kay

  14. Good Ole Larry by MouseTheLuckyDog · · Score: 2

    If the aliens trurn out to be like Kzinti?

  15. Re:It doesn't matter by roc97007 · · Score: 2

    What I meant was that I don't believe that the US government could put a man on the moon now. I suspect that, inevitably as a nation ages, bureaucracy increases to the point where no matter how rich the nation is, the cost of large undertakings balloons out of control until the project can't be done anymore. I suspect that a nation can do big projects -- the national electrical power infrastructure, building a comprehensive, integrated road system over almost 4 million square miles, and putting a man on the moon and bringing him back, can only be done during a "sweet spot" in a government's history. And we are past that point now.

    Test by: In the 1960's, we built the largest, most complicated machine ever built by man (the Saturn V stack) and sent a payload to the moon and back. In the 1980's, we just barely, at tremendous cost, created a cargo plane that could make it into LEO and most of the time return safely to Earth. In the three decades since then, there's been a few attempts to recreate the heavy lifting and spacecraft capabilities we had in the 60's, but costs became too great and they were canceled. My point is, I don't think the US government could do it anymore.

    Maybe private companies could, but the danger there is government over-regulation making it too costly. And then, with what are we left? Bond villains?

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  16. Re:It doesn't matter by roc97007 · · Score: 2

    I agree with a lot of what you said. What I'm trying to say is that yes, the moon shots cost a shit-ton in the 1960's, but even adjusted for inflation, the cost of doing it now after the inevitable budget ballooning out of control, due to the process itself becoming fundamentally broken, would be so great that no amount of money could achieve it. The more money you would pour into such a project, the more money it would cost, with the goal being forever out of reach. I'm not saying a moon shot is not practical (that's a sound argument and a good subject for debate) but that it's not even *possible* anymore. Another case in point: A certain modern fighter plane intended to be an affordable replacement for a very expensive older model, has become so much more expensive than the plane it was supposed to replace that it's now in danger of cancellation.

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  17. Prepare to be filtered by sinij · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We are not going to encounter any aliens until we are ourselves are past great filter. If we make it past great filtering, than social, evolutionary, and environmental factors imposing change on humanity over time-frames involved in below-speed-of-light space travel will produce plenty of "aliens". They will be our descendants but they will be nothing like us.

  18. duh. by MadMaverick9 · · Score: 2

    Bozeman, Montana on 5 April 2063.

    49 years from now.

  19. Bullshit New Agey Pseudoscience by Ironlenny · · Score: 5, Insightful
    How can “The scientific community now accepts to some degree that this contact may occur in the next 50 to 100 years.” be true if we haven't even established that there is life outside of Earth!

    Then you have this tripe: "'Further, by means of self-consciousness, man becomes capable of treating his own mental states as objects of consciousness. The prime characteristic of cosmic consciousness is, as its name implies, a consciousness of the cosmos, that is, of the life and order of the universe,' De la Torre writes in a study published in the journal Acta Astronautica."

    I am very disappointed in you Slashdot.

    --
    There is a system for subverting the system and you should use that system!
  20. Re:Bullshit. by Grog6 · · Score: 2

    2024; That's the year the Pak show up to seed the planet with thallium and tree-of-life.

    I, for one welcome our new Pak Overlords. What's that smell, dammit...

    Of course, it could be Kzin... :)

    --
    Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
  21. What SETI can pick up by Doug+Merritt · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Yet the sky is not saturated with their communications. So therefor those civilizations must be using some other technology.

    That seems logical, but that turns out not to be the case. A SETI scientist said in a talk (and I've seen this in articles since) that our deployed SETI listening technology is still nowhere near sensitive enough to pick up signals even from as close as the nearest star (Proxima Centauri, 4 light years away), if a planet there was broadcasting RF at current Earth levels.

    (That doesn't mean SETI to date is pointless, because there's always a chance of a highly directional signal beamed our way, or of just something unexpected, like signals far far brighter than Earth's.)

    So no, we have no idea whether the sky is saturated with radio waves or not.

    --
    Professional Wild-Eyed Visionary
    1. Re:What SETI can pick up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      SETI would not be able to pick up our communication from 1ly. so..

      http://www.satsig.net/seticalc...

      http://stason.org/TULARC/scien...

      It should be apparent then from these results that the detection of AM
      radio, FM radio, or TV pictures much beyond the orbit of Pluto will be
      extremely difficult even for an Arecibo-like 305 meter diameter radio
      telescope! Even a 3000 meter diameter radio telescope could not
      detect the "I Love Lucy" TV show (re-runs) at a distance of 0.01
      Light-Years!

      It is only the narrowband high intensity emissions from Earth
      (narrowband radar generally) that will be detectable at significant
      ranges (greater than 1 LY). Perhaps they'll show up very much like
      the narrowband, short duration, and non-repeating, signals observed by
      our SETI telescopes. Perhaps we should document all these
      "non-repeating" detections very carefully to see if any long term
      spatial detection patterns show up.

      but who knows, maybe others are trying to send signals through their big horns too,

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W...

    2. Re:What SETI can pick up by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A SETI scientist said in a talk (and I've seen this in articles since) that our deployed SETI listening technology is still nowhere near sensitive enough to pick up signals even from as close as the nearest star (Proxima Centauri, 4 light years away), if a planet there was broadcasting RF at current Earth levels.

      It isn't the technology, it's just the hardware. Not the same thing. Saying you don't have a big enough wrench is not the same as saying you don't know how to build a bridge.

      In theory, if we can capture coherent pictures in the visible spectrum from many billions of light years away, we should be able to do the same with RF. It's not exactly the same but the basic principles are. It's just that nobody wants to spend the money. That's why we have things like the Very Large Array: nobody has the money to build a telescope that big so we find a cheaper way. That's different from not knowing how.

    3. Re:What SETI can pick up by Doug+Merritt · · Score: 2

      In theory, if we can capture coherent pictures in the visible spectrum from many billions of light years away, we should be able to do the same with RF.

      It's actually very easy to see why the opposite is true: stars famously broadcast a truly vast amount of power in the visible spectrum, which is what makes solar energy and photosynthesis effective.

      Humans clearly do not have the power resources of the entire sun to use to power RF broadcasts. The total amount of power we have at our disposal from all sources is a tiny, tiny fraction of what the sun broadcasts.

      And most of our power does not go into RF in the first place, it goes into transportation, manufacturing, etc.

      So it's quite straightforward that there is no comparison between the brightness of stars in the visible spectrum versus the Earth in RF. Stars win hands down.

      It isn't the technology, it's just the hardware.

      Unfortunately, it is very much both. It's true that we can do better by building better listening arrays, and SETI has been continually doing that for many years, but there is also a problem of signal to noise ratio that gives a hard limit on sensitivity due to noise from terrestrial sources and from thermal and quantum noise in the receiving electronics.

      Part of that could be improved by putting radio telescopes e.g. on the far side of the moon. The electronics issue simply needs better technology.

      --
      Professional Wild-Eyed Visionary
  22. Re:Too many creationists by statemachine · · Score: 2

    I see a creationist got mod points today.

  23. Why the f*ck would they come here? by macbeth66 · · Score: 2

    I've often wondered how stupid would an extraterrestrial civilization be to want to come to this planet?

  24. Re:Bullshit. by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 2

    Of course, it could be Kzin... :)

    I have a large ball of yarn in my garage, just in case.

    --
    If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
  25. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  26. Or not by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Do you drink coffee or beer or eat peppers or yogurt?

    These are all things that are capable of altering your mood and your behavior. Most of the time we don't notice the alteration, both because it's subtle and because believing in one's own self-ness is a survival characteristic.

    The sophistication that allows trans-galactic travel will also allow substantial self-modification, including and especially modification of behavior to null out the instincts to honor self above others and the instinct to win at all costs.

    Technology is simply leverage; the means of wielding power beyond that which we physically possess. To make a simplifying example: probably no one on earth today could responsibly handle an antimatter-powered 10 gigawatt hand-held ray-gun-type device. Normal people would be hard-pressed just to keep it safe from the rest of us and never use it. Anyone who actually has the power to keep it safe is already in the position of dominating others by virtue of how our society works. They are either at risk of being sacked by greedy competitors or they dominate so completely that they are already corrupt in their power.

    Probably the real danger isn't in the form of a ray-gun. It's likely a virus or an AI or a self-replicating nano-tech. Even if you took away the part of our selves that generates our dangerous and anti-social behaviors, we would still have to deal with the real danger of just being too clumsy to come up with a safe way to handle some things like nano-tech or AI. We just aren't any good at evaluating things that exhibit geometric growth networks effects. Of course, the good news is that once you have control of the design of your own mind, you get to choose what you're good at.

    A civilization that has tremendous technology will almost certainly have modified itself to be responsible in wielding it. To do otherwise would make survival less and less probable as the technology advances. Also, we can see that this is a pretty good parallel to the evolution of human society. When we were just smart mammals focused on survival, we had no particular qualms about killing each other. As technology has progressed, our notion of humanity has progressed roughly apiece. We're still brutal and horrible to each other, but on average, I think we're becoming more human all the time.

    All of that said, I think that there's still a situation in which aliens would visit. I think it would be simply to foster the on-going proliferation and advancement of consciousness in the universe. At the end of the day, I think we'd all like for something of ourselves, some kind of consciousness to survive in the universe rather than for it to all die out. Having more creative, capable and varied consciousness in the universe is the best way to further that goal. Letting us know that there's something else out there could go a long way to waking us up to our part of the consciousness mission.

  27. Belgians and Congo... by sithlord2 · · Score: 2

    Do some research about what we did during the colonization of Africa. The same story goes for the discovery of America. We promised them "civilization", promised them better lives, but in the end we just exploited the native population for our own benefits.

    If suddenly an alien civilization would show up and make the same promises, we are in deep trouble...

    --
    ...You are over-qualified and under-paid. If we give you a raise, we will break the cosmic balance of the universe.
  28. Alternatives; might take quadrillions of universes by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ... in a multiverse to generate one Earth?

    Just to add to the possibility of unlikelihood of other space civilizations, with quadrillions of totally empty universes...

    Great analysis.

    All that said, we just don't know the odds of alternatives within out universe. And we may be living in a computer simulation (like Minecraft?) with parameters set to generate either one or trillions of different space civilizations.

    Although given how hardy bacteria are, it would not surprise me if our solar system had been inoculated by bacteria from far away.

    A big irony of all this SETI stuff is that so many people act like finding intelligent life elsewhere in the universe with a different culture or technology elsewhere would be a big deal, whereas we in the USA and also globally are so busy killing off whales, elephants, octopods, and people of different countries and religions for various short-term economic or xenophobic reasons... And our culture also have a history of ignoring great technologies like Smalltalk or QNX. Comments on SETI are often just some weird mix of irony, hypocrisy, and blindness... Not to say I have not been guilty of such myself sometimes...

    Someone in another post talked about a popular fantasy that some alien technology would solve all our problems, but is that true? As Bucky Fuller said in the 1960s, and is only more true now, we have more than enough resources and technology to make life pleasant for everyone on Earth (well, except haters and greeders maybe). Eat more vegetables and fruits, get out in the sunshine and walk in nature, hang out with other people locally, sleep well, do good work, and so on are the basics for a healthy happy life (see "BlueZones"). People in the USA can see much happier and healthier people in Europe or Canada if they bothered to look, but US politics in general can't admit that. Can you imagine what the US political parties (either left or right) would say about some happier healthier more prosperous space civilization that was more communal? Or that had different sex roles? Or had different religious rituals? Or whatever?

    Example of the kind of nonsense people in the USA would start spouting in talk-radio: "Yeah, those red-skinned aliens live 100,000 years each in perfect health traveling the universe if they want in FTL ships that can print anything they want in 3D, but it's an unhappy 10,000 years because they have high taxes and have a different notion of God/Universe and different rituals. We need to help these backward aliens come to know our loving God (by torture if need be) and how to vote correctly to give all their money to wealthy Earthlings who will create good jobs for all of them. Their medical care system sucks because they don't have private sick care insurance to deliver medicine by board-certified entrepreneurial MDs and the health care facilities and testing labs the MDs own and so the alien's million-year old political obviously will surely be insolvent soon. Anyone who explores or advocates their ways is an alien-sympathizer traitor, guilty of treason, and needs to be imprisoned or re-educated. Anyone who harbors an alien is guilty of aiding terrorists because these aliens want to destroy our way of life. For our citizens' own protection, we will not issue passports to anyone dumb enough to want to go visit them and anyone attempting to board an alien vessel will be shot out of our boundless compassion. The aliens are obviously here to corrupt our morality and sap the ardor of the hard-working minimum-wage-paid American to cause the USA to collapse. These aliens in their crappy ZPE-powered FTL ships obviously want to steal our fossil fuel coal, oil, and natural gas. We need to increase out military spending to counter this alien threat, and it is sensible to take simple precautions like a first-strike with nukes and plagues on the alien homeworld using stolen alien spaceships to keep this alien menace at bay. Better dead than Red."

    For this playing out historically in North America centuries ago to "R

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.