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MIT Used Lobbying, Influence To Restore Nuclear Fusion Dream

An anonymous reader writes in with the story of how MIT's fusion energy experiment is alive and well even though its federal funding was axed. "'In the end, it is about picking a winner and a parochial effort to direct money to MIT,' said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a Washington-based watchdog group. 'It's certainly a case of lawmakers bucking the president and putting their thumb on the scale for a particular project.' MIT enlisted the support of a wealthy Democratic donor from Concord and the help of an influential Washington think-tank co-founded by John Kerry. These efforts were backed by lobbyists, including a former congressman from Massachusetts, with connections to the right lawmakers on the right committees. The cast also included an alliance of universities, industry and national labs, all invested in the fusion dream. 'It's ground-breaking research that could lead an energy revolution,' [Senator Elizabeth] Warren said. 'This was not about politics. This was about good science.' The revival of MIT's project, whatever its merits, clearly demonstrated what the combination of old-fashioned Washington horse-trading and new-fangled power — both nuclear and political — can do."

32 of 135 comments (clear)

  1. Article doesn't go into details about quality by phantomfive · · Score: 5, Informative
    The article doesn't go into details about the quality of the program. The Obama administration removed funding, and Obama certainly isn't opposed to alternative energy. According to the article:

    the Obama administration, while sharing the hope that nuclear fusion will one day be harnessed as a power source, concluded that the MIT experiment was a waste of taxpayer money. It deemed MIT’s facility outdated and small, the least scientifically useful of three domestic fusion reactors. Indeed, critics of the experiment said it amounts to a $1.5 million-per-student training program that MIT wants to keep going to protect its turf and prestige.

    It would be interesting to see an analysis of what the program is actually accomplishing. It's not clear, and I don't have the expertise to determine whether the program is doing anything useful.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    1. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by phantomfive · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The program is doing useful research.

      What useful research is it doing? This is the topic I'm really interested in.

      1) dollar-for-dollar the MIT reactor produced more papers

      Eh, I'm too aware of the quality of academic papers to really care about raw numbers. Let's hear about the details of their important discoveries (or more interestingly, what research they are working on now that could give us important results in the future).

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Karmashock · · Score: 2

      I'm pretty sure the Soylents will be against any energy program that isn't in tune with mother gaia though. Fusion doesn't sound like something they'd sign off on does it?

      imagine if we could build big fusion plants that could power cities... would they be all over that?

      I honestly don't know but given their attitude toward the nuclear programs I don't think they'd like it. I think fusion is tolerated mostly because they don't think its viable or worth worrying about right now. But if they suddenly made a viable reactor... I don't think they'd allow it.

      At this point, I've grown pretty cynical about all these programs. We are at this point a house so divided that I don't think we're able to do anything anymore.

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    3. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      dollar-for-dollar the MIT reactor produced more papers

      The two ingredients for an academic paper are:
      i) Ability to apply the techniques for research in that field (every researcher in the relevant field can); and
      ii) Ability to find a slightly novel question to answer (of which there are plenty).

      There is no need to have written anything particularly clever or insightful or groundbreaking or efficient or useful (to the field or to the world).

    4. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Beck_Neard · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If that's the general argument, then it's wrong. Deuterium-Tritium fusion (the kind that all fusion efforts are currently pursuing) would produce not-insignificant amounts of neutron-irradiated waste. The waste would be just as hard to deal with as current nuclear waste is, although it would be produced in much smaller quantities. Still, though, both fission and fusion are much better than the alternatives (fossil fuels).

      Aneutronic fusion would be virtually waste-free, but it's very hard and in no one's plans for the foreseeable future.

      About us environmentalists, there are many different groups, and not all of us are retarded. People need electrical power, I accept that. Electrical power brings prosperity and higher standard of living, and a happier populace. I've been advocating for years for people to stop building fossil fuel plants and replace them with nuclear plants, and a lot of other environmentalists agree with me. Environmentalism isn't just Greenpeace and hippies.

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    5. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      > It's not clear, and I don't have the expertise to determine whether the program is doing anything useful.

      Most of the major scientific achievement are not doing anything useful at their time of discovery.

      What was the usefulness of general relativity in the early 20th century ? Nothing before artificial satellite (i.e. GPS).
      What was the usefulness of galois theory in the 19th century ? Nothing. Now we have got major applications (coding theory...).
      What was the usefulness of Fast Fourier Transform (known since ~1800) ? Nada Now everywhere.

    6. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Karmashock · · Score: 2, Informative

      as to the different groups of environmentalists... I know... every group has that problem.

      But the issue is that to some extent we're all environmentalists. We all live in this environment and we all generally want our planet to be healthy etc.

      So as a political cause or faction, its hard to claim ownership of it unless you're in the extreme radical fringe. Because pretty much everyone agrees with everything BUT that fringe. And its the fringe that causes all the controversy.

      Cut them out and you get no disagreement.

      The environmental movement that you and I believe in already won. It got everything it was trying to get.

      But like all the lobbying and advocacy groups when they get what they want they just ask for more and more and more until people say no... and then they paint whomever is denying them anything as an enemy of EVERYTHING they've ever done.

      For example, if people that have come out against reparations for American blacks are frequently labeled racists, advocates of slavery, or other things. Never mind that they were against all those things they just don't believe in reparations for some reason.

      Likewise you get the same thing in the environmental movement.

      You come out against anything they want and they say you want to kill the world with toxic smog and heavy metal contamination.

      You come out against putting in gender quotas for female hiring and the feminists will say you want to end women's suffrage, you're a misogynist, etc.

      Every group is doing this... you see it amongst the bible thumpers as well... you don't like mandated religious education in public schools? Oh suddenly we all hate Christians and want to take away people's right to freedom of religion.

      Every group is doing this... And I really don't understand why anyone lets them get away with it. Its obviously completely stupid. But every day... the same shit.

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    7. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2

      > Still, though, both fission and fusion are much better than the alternatives (fossil fuels).

      Fallacy of the excluded middle. There is no way fusion will ever compete with this:

      http://gallery.mailchimp.com/ce17780900c3d223633ecfa59/files/Lazard_Levelized_Cost_of_Energy_v7.0.1.pdf

    8. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by guyniraxn · · Score: 2

      The article also mentions relatively high numbers of "articles cited by outside researchers in the last five years." Surely that is some indicator of quality.

    9. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by Karmashock · · Score: 2, Insightful

      that's a half truth. People agree its a problem but they do not agree on the means of solving the problem.

      The radical environmental fringe wants radical action. The majority want a slow and measured response that doesn't upset things too much.

      the other side of the radical coin wants to do nothing at all.

      Every time either radical fringe encounters anyone that doesn't want to everything they want right away the exact way they want they accuse them of belonging to the rival fringe when of course 95 percent of the time they're just yelling at someone in the middle.

      And they've already asked for the cookie, because not only do they want the issue fixed by throwing literally trillions of dollars at the issue, they want to control that funding and regulation themselves. Which means the entire planetary economy would be in their hands.

      And no... I don't think that's a reasonable request. And yes, they have effectively demanded that.

      They want a global regulatory system that can order nations to comply indifferent to the wishes of their citizens. And they want that system to be in the hands of some UN body that they've seeded with their own people.

      And because I'm sure you'll say it isn't trillions... I'm not just counting the money they're asking for but also the money the global economy will lose by complying... it does work out to trillions. Which isn't that hard to do really.

      Consider that the US economy is something like 11-12 trillion a year all by itself. Cost the US 10 percent and you're looking at trillions in effective costs JUST in the US alone. Expand that over the whole world and its a lot more money.

      And then factor that given economies have less money or are more reliant on dirty industry and so will be disproportionately harmed by the whole thing. Which means some of them won't comply or will fight compliance... and then you'll have to go through a trade war process in each situation.

      Look at the problems the US has had getting sanctions on Iran for example. The EU says they'll comply. The UN says they'll comply... but the Iranians seem to be able to sell their oil anyway. So what exactly did that accomplish?

      I personally think the solution is making fossil fuels uncompetitive through superior technology. I don't want to regulate them or tax them out of existence. I don't think that's practical.

      What I do think will work is replacing them with something better. ACTUALLY better. The crux of our problem is energy storage. We have reasonable energy generation with solar and wind. But we have no reasonable system to store it. Batteries are not practical. At least as they currently exist. Maybe flow batteries would be okay... but I'm dubious.

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    10. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      Not in a 'publish or perish' academic environment. Essentially that is like measuring programmer productivity by counting lines of code. At best it's a poor measure of quality, at worst it's easily gamed.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    11. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      Eh, in the science world, if it's even interesting, then that's close enough to count as 'useful.' Most people understand that fundamental research is still valuable even if it doesn't yield practical results immediately; that's why we have a government science funding program. So what interesting things are they working on?

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    12. Re:Article doesn't go into details about quality by radtea · · Score: 2

      The waste would be just as hard to deal with as current nuclear waste is, although it would be produced in much smaller quantities.

      Not quite. Because fusion reactors will contain mostly light elements, the waste produced will be almost all relatively short-lived (decades or years or less, not centuries). This is a huge benefit over fission, which necessarily creates a great deal of long-lived waste simply by virtue of neutron irradiation of heavy elements.

      I do agree that fission (today) and fusion (in the future) are far better alternatives to base-load coal than anything else going, and get frustrated no end with self-proclaimed "environmentalists" who will do anything--absolutely anything--to stave off climate change except admit they were wrong about the risk-reward proposition on nuclear back in the '70's.

      --
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  2. R & D in America by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I read a report 2 years ago that said the R&D funding in America has fallen, while at the same time R&D fundings in Korea, Japan, Singapore and in China have gone up

    The report also stated that the number of patents awarded to America has plateaued while patents awarded to other countries, especially those from East Asia, have skyrocketed

    Most importantly the report stated that of the patents awarded to American companies, more and more are not directly resulted from technological advancement, but rather, based on "usage" and/or "methodology", such as the patent as described in following article -

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/11/scheduling_paradigm/

  3. Re:meh by davester666 · · Score: 2

    it still tastes great. I sprinkle it on everything I eat.

    --
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  4. Re:MIT sure has fallen far by _merlin · · Score: 2

    Wut? RadLab was about microwave radiation, for shortwave radar. They didn't do nuclear physics.

  5. Re:meh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Same as is always happening.

    A lot of hype from a few desperate hopefuls who don't understand the tech. Nothing at all from anyone who realizes that it's expensive, impractical and doesn't solve any problems that can't be solved with better and cheaper options.

  6. Re:MIT sure has fallen far by khallow · · Score: 2

    The US could have just stayed in ITER but it didn't because it thought fusion power was quixotic...

    The US has stayed in ITER. It might leave ITER, but if it does so, it'll be because the project is so poorly managed.

  7. Re:MIT sure has fallen far by nojayuk · · Score: 5, Funny

    ITER is not run by Americans so it is, de facto, poorly managed.

  8. Re:It's good when we do it, bad when others do it by guises · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You're being a little too vague here. What is "this sort of thing"? Lobbying? Who is "us"? Supporters of fusion research?

    It's true that the Slashdot crowd trends towards opposing lobbyists (unless they're the NRA), but there's also generally pretty strong support for science funding. It's not surprising to me that comments would largely take the attitude that this is positive.

  9. Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by amaurea · · Score: 5, Informative

    It's common to hear someone say that "fusion power was 30 years away in the seventies, it's 30 years away now, and it will stay 30 years away"" or similar, and sadly, there is some truth to that (though perhaps it's 30 years now (estimated time for the DEMO full power-plant is 2033)). I think one of the reasons is that funding keeps decreasing, far below the optimistic projections of the 70s. The MIT fusion project made this graph to illustrate: https://i.imgur.com/sjH5r.jpg

    It's a bit like when you're downloading a file, and while the download keeps making progress, the estimated time left stays put because the download speed keeps going down. I've had that happen a few times, and it requires an exponentially falling download speed. With fusion, the situation isn't quite that bad, but when you consider the sort of funding levels people were imagining before, it isn't surprising that they thought we would have fusion power by the year 2000.

    One interesting way of putting this is to say that fusion power isn't a constant amount of time away, but about 50 billion dollars of funding away. To put those 50 billion dollars in context, fossil fules have received 594 billion dollars in subsidies in the USA since 1950. So partially fusion is difficult, and partially we're not trying very hard.

    1. Re:Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 5, Insightful

      > there is some truth

      There's *all* truth to that. Let me put this simply; there is almost zero chance that fusion, in its current form, will *ever* be a practical power source.

      Now when people read a statement like that they get their backs up about the future, and progress and science and all that. But that's not the issue. The issue is that *fusion isn't the only power source on the planet*. As long as one of these is "better" that fusion, then fusion won't happen. That's all there is to it.

      So why do I state my conclusion so forcefully? Because math.

      The Levelized Cost of Electricity is the key determinant in telling you whether or not a system will be built. The formula basically tells you what you have to charge for the power coming out of your system in order to break even. Anything above that number is gravy.

      The formula, which you can read in depth here:
      http://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/your-own-grid-parity-pv-system/

      basically boils down to five numbers. The first is the amount of money you pay for the plant, and more specifically, the amount of interest you pay on the loans you took out to build it. The second is the cost of fuel to produce a given amount of power. The next is the peak power that the plant can produce, and next is the percentage of time that the plant actually does produce that. Finally there's the lifetime of the plant, which feed into all of the others. It's something like this:

      price of your power = (all the money you put into the plant over its lifetime) / (all the power that you exported to the grid)

      We measure money in dollars and cents. We measure power in kWh. This is why your power bill lists a figure in cents/kWh, and why the grid operators measure in $/MWh.

      Ok, so fusion. So the price of fuel for a fusion reactor is low, about the same as a fission plant. So we can eliminate that figure for a rule-of-thumb calculation, and leaves us with the lifetime cost of the plant, the CAPEX+OPEX. Now we look at the other side, and we see two figures, the peak power and the percentage of time it runs. We can simplify by listing our CAPEX/peak power as a single number, dollars per watt.

      So basically the entire cost structure comes down to the cost of the reactor, and the amount of time it spends running. The rest we can scale out linearly against other power sources.

      So what do we know about these two factors?

      Well in terms of percentage power, or capacity factor as we call it, fusion reactors are not competitive. Because of neutron embrittlement, they need to be shut down all the time so the reactor core liner can be removed and replaced. Newer designs place lithium-infused blocks inside the containment vessel; this means the vessel itself lasts longer but you still need to open it up all the time to get at those blocks. Generally we might expect a fusion plant to have a capacity factor on the order of a good hydro plant, on the order of 60%. For comparison, a fission plant is around 90%, a wind turbine is 30%, a solar panel is about 15%.

      Ok, now the CAPEX. Any fusion reactor of practical output is going to be one of the most fantastically complicated devices ever made. They are utterly crammed with high-end materials, poisons, huge electrical and magnetic systems, high-end vacuum pumps, etc. Depending on the design, it's also flammable, and the fire will cause radioactive rain, so you still need a complete containment building. Now on top of this all, the energy density of a fusion system is *tiny*, so you need to build *enormous* reactors.

      And that's where it falls apart. There is simply no way, under any reasonable development line, that the cost of building the plant, and servicing its debt, can possibly be made up by the electricity coming out. PV, one of the worst power sources in terms of cents/kWh, is currently running at about 15 to 20 cents/kWh. A fusion reactor almost certainly cannot be built that will produce power at under ten times that cost. And that's assuming it ever "works

    2. Re:Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 2

      Really zippy? That's a subsidy. Money that would otherwise go to the US goes to the oil industry. Money they don't need since they make billions in net profits per quarter. The point in providing a subsidy/tax break is to help a industry. The oil industry hasn't needed help in a long time.

    3. Re:Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 2

      Your argument appears to be "we haven't solve the technical and practical challenges yet, so we never will." Progress is disappointingly slow; I'll give you that. The challenges are hard. I'll give you that too. However, given what human ingenuity has managed to accomplish just in the past 20 years, I think it is a very, very poor strategy to bet against it in the long term. Part of why we're not solving these challenges is that we're frankly not trying that hard. What we have now is still good enough for now. When that changes, when sufficiently larger players start taking fusion research seriously, I think the game will change pretty dramatically.

    4. Re:Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 4, Interesting

      > Your argument appears to be "we haven't solve the technical and practical challenges yet, so we never will."

      What?!? I said the *exact opposite* of that.

      I said that even if they get it working, there's no reason to build it.

      Here, let me put this in crayon for you. Right now I can go and buy a turbine from GE, hook that up to a food dryer system from some hippy store, and use it to dry out peanut butter and feed them into the turbine. I *guarantee* you this will actually work, and produce net energy. What, you don't believe me? Fine, read this:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_Turbine_Car

      Better yet, it's carbon neutral, because the CO2 you release by burning it is sucked back into the next tree. Now of course the power coming out would cost ten times what you'd get by burning bunker oil, and bunker oil produces power at ten times the rate of a wind turbine, but *it will work*, for sure. Fusion? Meh, maybe by 2050. Maybe not. And of course, fusion will likely cost even more.

      So what problem does a fusion reactor solve that a peanut turbine doesn't? None. So why isn't anyone racing to built peanut turbines? Because they cost too much. And fusion costs more than that.

      And THAT is my argument.

      "Now wait" you say... what if advancement X causes the price of fusion to fall? Well sure, but what if advancement Y causes the price of peanut turbines to fall? And when you look at all the research in the world, there's a lot more going into making cheaper peanuts than fusion.

      I am being a bit facetious here, but not that much. I've been looking at this problem for three decades now, and it's not getting any better. Quite the opposite, fusion is getting more and more expensive. Its just not going to happen. You need to spend your energy on something that will actually happen, even if it's not as good in theory.

    5. Re:Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by DerekLyons · · Score: 2

      Well in terms of percentage power, or capacity factor as we call it, fusion reactors are not competitive. Because of neutron embrittlement, they need to be shut down all the time so the reactor core liner can be removed and replaced.

      [[Citation needed]] - "all the time" is not a mathematical statement and therefore cannot be included in your (pseudo) mathematical reasoning.
       

      Depending on the design, it's also flammable, and the fire will cause radioactive rain, so you still need a complete containment building.

      [[Citation needed]] - not to mention that since the system is not under significant pressure, the containment building (if actually needed) will be far simpler and far cheaper than that needed by a nuclear power plant.
       

      And that's where it falls apart.

      No, where it falls apart is right at the beginning where you start handwaving and blowing smoke about equations... but then substitute FUD for actual numbers.

    6. Re:Falling funding: Why fusion stays 30 years away by ediron2 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      A few moments googling confirms: Maury's Markowitz is up to his elbows in Solar Energy. Given his advocacy for solar, his head would explode if anyone talked about Solar with hyperbole and absolutely-nevers like he's done here.

      Speaking as a degreed engineer and physicist, with childhood classmates, neighbors and professional colleagues now decades into their work in both next-gen fission and current fusion reactor design, I definitely get a bad vibe from all of Maury's hyperbole. They agree that fusion is challenging. But fusion isn't remotely analogous to vacuum tubes, nor is work and progress stalled. Maury's selling the impossibility of fusion, I doubt he's remotely qualified, and he's exaggerating to do so.

      Nice Try, solar guy. IMHO, the worst kind of bad science is advocacy that overreaches your expertise, because it can smell true to other scientists. Next time, start with 'I'm __ with ____ (Solar), and here's why I've bet my career on solar:'

  10. Re:MIT sure has fallen far by craigminah · · Score: 2

    As an American i take offense, yet the entire concept of lobbying for anything is idiotic...let politicians decide on what's best for their constituents, not who will give them the most money or kickbacks.

  11. Re:MIT sure has fallen far by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Because Republicans never funnel money into pet projects or friends. You are probably one of those idiots that think Republicans are for smaller government. The only thing the parties disagree on is where to waste our money.

  12. Re:meh by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 3, Interesting

    > Your assumption of course is that all other factors stay the same

    Exactly the opposite, I'm taking into account the changing market at every turn.

    Right now commercial PV is around 8 cents and is expected to fall in 6 to 7 cents by the end of this year.
    Right now wind turbines are producing power for between 4.5 and 9 cents, and it is expected the price will collapse to the 5 cent mark over time.
    These numbers include factors for intermittency, transmission upgrades, and anything else you might think of.

    So, thorium. In spite of multiple decades of ongoing research, we still have no working thorium reactor. In fact, that's true in spite of the fact that the reactor just down the road from me can run on it. So if we have reactors right now that can use it, and they're not, surely there is a reason for this, right?

    And the reason is that the price of building the infrastructure needed to commercialize the fuel pipeline is enormous, and at current U2 prices, utterly pointless. As I'm sure you're no doubt aware, the price of the U2 fuel cycle development was paid for by WWII, which provided a large subsidy to plants in countries with military needs. That leaves only Germany as a country that had to develop a fuel cycle *without* an interest in bombs, and look how well that turned out for them.

    So basically people that actually work in the power industry, especially the nuclear power industry, see that this is not a technical problem (well, it is) but a practical one. One that is *not* getting solved any time soon. Perhaps this is simply a chicken-egg problem, and anyone that cracks one side will produce a reason to attack the other. But to date that hasn't happened, and there you have it.

  13. Re:meh by MachineShedFred · · Score: 2

    It's still decaying. Slowly.

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  14. Re:MIT sure has fallen far by khallow · · Score: 2

    Do you have inside information?

    I have public information.

    Although that goal is at least 20 years away, ITER is already burning through money at a prodigious pace. The United States is only a minor partner in the project, which began construction in 2008. But the U.S. contribution to ITER will total $3.9 billionâ"roughly four times as much as originally estimatedâ"according to a new cost estimate released yesterday. That is about $1.4 billion higher than a 2011 cost estimate, and the numbers are likely to intensify doubts among some members of Congress about continuing the U.S. involvement in the project.

    That paragraph in a nutshell shows both the mismanagement and the connection between that mismanagement and a continued US contribution to ITER.