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Are US Hybrid Sales Peaking Already?
cartechboy (2660665) writes The Toyota Prius is pretty darn popular, especially in California. One might think that hybrid sales are on the rise as gas prices continue to fluctuate, but it seems hybrid sales in the U.S. might be peaking. Researchers at IHS Automotive found that U.S. hybrid sales haven't kept pace with the rest of the market. In the automotive world, conventional wisdom states that adding a model to a brand or segment will increase sales--but that hasn't happened with hybrids. The number of hybrid offerings has almost doubled from 24 in 2009 to 47 in 2014--but U.S. hybrid sales haven't dramatically increased. In fact, hybrid market share actually declined from 2009 to 2010, and then again from 2013 to 2014. So if consumers aren't buying hybrids, what are they buying? It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars stating that these models are just nicer to drive.
When I can but a Toyota Matrix for half the price, get twice the cargo space and still get 38 mpg. I think consumers are realizing that hybrids are just a clever way for automakers to tax people who suck at math. Meanwhile the air in Beijing is still chewable so the saving the planet crowd might be weakening too.
Are they peaking because nobody wants them, or because nobody wants to make them?
It's because they're as expensive as hell for their size, are mostly (but not always) gutless on hills and under a full load, and they originally didn't deliver the fuel savings as originally promised.
There's also that whole 'gotta replace that uber-expensive-battery-pack-in-7-to-10-years-or-so' bit...
At least with a gas engine, you have some hope of stretching the car's useful life to 15 years these days.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
It was inevitable: Peak Hybrid had to happen. It's getting more and more difficult to extract crude hybrid from the lower levels of the tax code, which makes it more expensive to dole out. And, they're running out of room in the Whole Foods parking lot, where things are getting real, man.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
The number of new-car buyers is relatively inelastic. What you're seeing is the number of buyers that are willing to pay a premium for a hybrid over a vehicle with a conventional transmission.
Some buyers of hybrids actually want 100% electric cars. The hybrid was settling. Now that there are some 100% electrics, those buyers won't buy another hybrid.
Some buyers can only afford the cheapest car or only want to afford the cheapest car with the most fuel economy, and often that's a subcompact with a small four-cylinder engine and highway differential gearing, and in many instances that car gets as good fuel economy as a hybrid of of the next size-class up.
Lastly, hybrids often are equipped with more options or luxury options, which pushes up the price.
If you want hybrids to sell more, make them cheaper to buy, and sell them based on their fuel economy as the feature, not simply that they're a hybrid. That'll help attract buyers that want to avoid the dreaded "H word", and could get subcompact economy buyers to consider hybrids.
I'd personally like an all-electric, but I don't want a goofy looking car in the process. I want something like a modern Dart or 200 with a full-electric drivertrain, like the setup used in the Fiat 500e. But since Marchionnie doesn't even want to sell the 500e and is only doing so because California's laws require it, I doubt we'll see a Dart-electric or 200e anytime soon.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
We paid extra to rent a Prius went we went out West a few years ago. Don't recall which model year it was, 2007 or 2008 I think but could be wrong there. Either way I came away less than impressed. Strike One for me is anything with an automatic transmission, which makes me a relic I suppose, but there it is. The weird issue was with the seemingly hesitant throttle. There were times (turning left in front of oncoming traffic) where I stomped the gas and it seemed as though the computer had to stop and think, "Hmm.... electric, gas, or both?" and the car barely moved. Once it got going it had ample pick-up, for an automatic, but that 1-2 second delay took a lot of getting used to.
After a week of driving that thing I came away with the feeling that I would never own one. To be sure, there were some really neat things about it, like the dead silence when cruising at low speeds on the electric drive. Other than the throttle delay it handled as well as any mid-priced car I've driven. The build quality was nice and about what you'd expect in the price range. The gas mileage was a lot less impressive than what I was expecting, though the large proportion of highway miles and my penchant for speeding in wide open spaces (did you know the Prius will happily cruise at 110mph?) doubtless had something to do with that. Frankly if most of your driving is highway I don't see the point, my $17,000 non-hybrid Honda Civic is competitive with the Prius when it comes to highway driving.... I can milk 43-44mpg out of my Civic without trying that hard, and that's despite living in a hilly region.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Except it means that while the people who were buying hybrids are now buying pure-electric vehicles, the people who weren't buying hybrids, still aren't buying hybrids. That means that the number of people who stopped buying ordinary gas vehicles has peaked.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
The i.MIEV is not a hybrid. It's electric. Which has its own sales problems because the powertrain is so simple and robust that it requires very little maintenance, so dealers HATE selling them (they don't make as much profit on new car sales since their margins always get squeezed and someone has to pay the interest on those 0% financing and stuff). Dealers love it when customers come back for service, because service is a high-margin item. High enough they toss in stuff like free oil changes and other cheap things to encourage returning. And do it every 3-6 months, at that.
An EV doesn't have many moving parts - just the motor, gearbox and wheels. Unlike an ICE, you don't need to do much maintenance beyond ensuring the coolant levels are OK, vital fluids (like say, brake fluid) are sufficient, etc. You can easily get away without having service them for 2 years or more. Heck, Tesla offers a "we-cover-everything-but-tires" service for $600 annually (including consumables!), and while cheaper than most vehicle services over the same period, is also optional and doesn't void your warranty if you don't do it.
Hybrids are great for dealers because the ICE requires regular servicing, and the motor couplers (for those where the motor and engine can drive the wheels) introduce more complexity for servicing (more $$$).
The other thing is, well, a lot of hybrids have piss-poor gas mileage that can be obtained with an all-gas vehicle. And some hybrids just plain suck or have poor reviews.
You don't have to replace the whole pack all at once:
Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
The TCO estimates also use 15,000 miles/year as their base. Some people are fortunate enough to choose a place to live that is close to their job (or vice versa). My wife puts a whole 3500 miles on her Camry each year and I put around 7000 on the Sienna. They simply don't make hybrids or electrics that are cost effective for us.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
My wife and I purchased a 2005 Prius (back when they were quite uncommon). Wife's car. She loved it. Very reliable. Great mileage in warm weather, decent mileage in winter (37 mpg).
I liked her Prius so much I bought a 2010 Prius. Better gas mileage than the 2005, plus the option to boost power on demand, made this car a dream to drive. The interior fit, though, is sad (annoying rattle under the glove box).
We recently upgraded my wife's 2005 Prius to a 2012 Chevy Volt. OMG. So quiet! And the initial torque when you step on the accelerator...wow, just wow. The 2012 Volt makes my 2010 Prius seem like a go cart. My wife's current game with the car is to see how little gas she can use. So far, 2 tanks consumed and both of those were mandatory burnoffs required by the Volt after the gas sat in the car (unused) for 12 months. Her current lifetime gas mileage (as recorded by Chevy) is 597 MPG.
My next car will not be a Prius...it will be an electric of some type.
When I can but a Toyota Matrix for half the price, get twice the cargo space and still get 38 mpg. I think consumers are realizing that hybrids are just a clever way for automakers to tax people who suck at math.
Really it sounds like you suck at math, but full points for hyperbole.
The Matrix gets 28 MPG, not 38 MPG. (vs 50 MPG for the Prius)
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg...
The Matrix doesn't have twice the cargo space. According the same link, the Matrix has LESS cargo space than the Prius.
The Matrix wasn't half the price (It Appears the Matrix is no more), but again according to the above. Matrix was $19275 vs $24200 for Prius. Hardly half. The Base Prius is also a lot better equipped than a Base Matrix.
Also the average driver would save $850 annually on gas driving the Prius over the Matrix(if gas prices stay the same), meaning it would take 5.8 years to make up the price difference, after that it is gravy and you have a better equipped car, and more savings going forward.
2001-2003 Toyota Prius (1st generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
2004-2008 Toyota Prius (2nd generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
2009-present Toyota Prius (3rd generation) - $3,939 minus $1,350 "core credit"
Toyota Camry Hybrid - $3,541, core credit deducted
Toyota Highlander Hybrid - $4,848, core credit deducted
"has over a 300 mile range when being driven aggressively with the A/C and/or heater running and the audio system blasting"
that would be "All of them"
You're an idiot.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
I hear this from people who drive a stick all the time, and I've never understood it.
When I drive a stick, if I'm starting on a hill I pull the parking brake with my hand, keeping the button held in so it didn't latch, and not release it till I had enough traction with the engine to support the car so it didn't roll backwards.
Doesn't anyone else do this?
And as far as wanting a transmission that doesn't shift, you can get CVTs on non-hybrids, too. Most of them, however, are programmed to mimic an automatic's shift pattern because it's what people expect.
If I was in the market for a new car, I think by far I'd go for something Tesla.
If you can afford one, go for it. I'd do the same, but then again, I have a 10 year old Prius that's going fine (got a high-voltage battery replacement just last week - but that's covered under my state-mandated 10 year warranty) - cost to upgrade - $75k+, cost to keep my 50+mpg car? close to zero.
Now if I could buy an EV or hybrid minivan (none of this Prius V bullshit, Toyota - you sell the Hybrid Estima in Japan, why not here!?!) - I'd buy one in a heartbeat and replace my Prius.
btw, If you're complaint about the Prius appearance - what's the drag coefficient of your car? Is it as good as my 10 year old Prius? 'Cause that's why it looks like it does - it's part of it's design elegance.
Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting
My wife and I both have our own cars to drive to work. She drives a compact SUV that we have had for a few years and I drive a Nissan LEAF. We can take the gas car if we need to go on a long trip and we have the LEAF to use the rest of the time. When we go out we always take the LEAF. It is much cheaper to operate and it is a blast to drive. Most of the families I know with two cars would be much happier with one gas car and one electric car.
If you have an electric power train, then you don't have a hybrid.
That doesn't make sense.
Ezekiel 23:20
Let's check the math.
2014 Highlander 4WD Limited*: $41,960 18/24 mpg (21 averaged)
2014 Highlander Hybrid Limited AWD: $48,160 27/28 mpg (27.5 averaged)
Price difference: $6,200
Fuel cost per mile, $4 gallon: 19 cents vs 14.5
Savings per mile: 4.5 cents
Break Even: 138k miles
Time: 9.2 years.
Conclusion: Not worth it.
What if you're a 'city slicker'?
Cost per mile: 22 cents vs 15, diff 7
Break Even: 89k miles, 5.9 years. Worth it.
*Keeping the trim levels the same t
I don't read AC A human right
Series hybrids are... not hybrids. Any motor drive is going to have to have a considerable energy buffer. The only real difference between the "series hybrid" and the old diesel-electric systems we've had for decades on trains, ships, and submarines is the size of that buffer. The only reason for the term to exist is because "hybrid" became a buzzword, and so existing systems wanted to join in the publicity.
I'm going to go ahead and assume that you didn't buy a "really fat kid" for yourself, and 'splain some things that I've learned as a nerdy Prius owner...
First, it's not gutless as you might think. It's not going to win any awards for acceleration, but it can do 0-60 in 9.7 seconds. That's probably on the slower half of the scale, but still faster than a Yaris Hatchback or Matrix, as well as non-US models like the Avensis, Aygo, or Auris - and that's looking only at Toyota sedans. Most of the gutlessness comes from us schmucks inside the car, who are in no hurry to rush you to the next red light when we can get there at the same time as you, and with half as much fuel, by taking it easy. Some of the gutlessness comes from a software setting that adjusts the throttle response to the gas pedal's position; in Eco mode, you really have to mash the pedal if you want to move, while PWR mode makes it more like most American cars where it's jumpy if you so much as look at the gas pedal. In between is "Normal" mode. There are plenty of Prius owners who hate the car in anything but PWR mode because they like to accelerate fast.
Second, it is a HUGE car on the inside relative to most of my friends' sedans. A good amount of the space is vertical, so it helps if whatever you're carrying is tall or can be stacked. But I've carried 3'x8' sheets of plywood, an 8-foot ladder, or 4 people and backpacking gear for a 4-day wilderness trip. Many people can carry several bicycles inside the car without taking them apart - my wife and I are both very tall, so we have to take off the front wheel of our bikes to fit our bikes in. Out of all my friends, none have cars that can carry any of those things - except one bicycle with the wheels removed, and the handlebars sticking out the window.
Third, I'd say it doesn't really have two power trains; it has one power train of which the gasoline engine and two motor-generators are an integral part. The car would be incapable of driving if any of them are removed, although it'd be easier to remove the gasoline engine if anything. The Prius doesn't have a normal transmission; there are two planetary gearsets that connect the MGs and engine to the wheels. By adjusting the speed and direction of the MGs, pretty much any gear ratio can be obtained. It's sometimes called an "eCVT" because of this, but it could just as easily be called a single-speed transmission. Get rid of the electronic parts of the powertrain, and you'd have to put in a transmission instead to replace it. Also, you'd lose the regeneration abilities of being a hybrid. Of course, if you remove the engine, you'd have to use a much larger battery instead - and even then, the Prius motors are not designed for high-speed use (over 45 mph, the engine has to be spinning to keep the motors from over-revving; I think the limit is about 60 mph in the plug-in variant of the Prius). So both halves of the powertrain are really required for it to work, much less for it to work as efficiently as it does.
That's not to say it's a car for everybody - and indeed, if your choices come down to a Tesla anything or a Prius, I'd go with the Tesla any day unless you plan on regularly exceeding its range in areas where high-speed charging is not available. But it's a good choice of cars for many people.
That said, I'm not surprised that hybrid sales occasionally have a down year - but the trend still seems to be pretty positive. Even though they mention share dropping from 2009 to 2010, the hybrid share is still up about 15% since 2009, at about 3.2% of all cars. Meanwhile, EVs are starting to take off, and often catch the attention of the same eco-minded type that was purchasing the early hybrid models years ago. Still, they only amount to about 0.6% of all vehicle sales. But I don't think hybrids are a long-term solution, just like gas cars aren't either. Unless we start synthesizing gasoline from something other than oil, we'll need to find an alternative fuel sooner or later - whether that means EVs or something else, only time will tell.
All I can say is that I hope Tesla gets other auto makers fired up, otherwise I may have to find a big pile of cash next time I want to buy a car...