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Are US Hybrid Sales Peaking Already?
cartechboy (2660665) writes The Toyota Prius is pretty darn popular, especially in California. One might think that hybrid sales are on the rise as gas prices continue to fluctuate, but it seems hybrid sales in the U.S. might be peaking. Researchers at IHS Automotive found that U.S. hybrid sales haven't kept pace with the rest of the market. In the automotive world, conventional wisdom states that adding a model to a brand or segment will increase sales--but that hasn't happened with hybrids. The number of hybrid offerings has almost doubled from 24 in 2009 to 47 in 2014--but U.S. hybrid sales haven't dramatically increased. In fact, hybrid market share actually declined from 2009 to 2010, and then again from 2013 to 2014. So if consumers aren't buying hybrids, what are they buying? It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars stating that these models are just nicer to drive.
When I can but a Toyota Matrix for half the price, get twice the cargo space and still get 38 mpg. I think consumers are realizing that hybrids are just a clever way for automakers to tax people who suck at math. Meanwhile the air in Beijing is still chewable so the saving the planet crowd might be weakening too.
Are they peaking because nobody wants them, or because nobody wants to make them?
It's because they're as expensive as hell for their size, are mostly (but not always) gutless on hills and under a full load, and they originally didn't deliver the fuel savings as originally promised.
There's also that whole 'gotta replace that uber-expensive-battery-pack-in-7-to-10-years-or-so' bit...
At least with a gas engine, you have some hope of stretching the car's useful life to 15 years these days.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
It was inevitable: Peak Hybrid had to happen. It's getting more and more difficult to extract crude hybrid from the lower levels of the tax code, which makes it more expensive to dole out. And, they're running out of room in the Whole Foods parking lot, where things are getting real, man.
Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
The number of new-car buyers is relatively inelastic. What you're seeing is the number of buyers that are willing to pay a premium for a hybrid over a vehicle with a conventional transmission.
Some buyers of hybrids actually want 100% electric cars. The hybrid was settling. Now that there are some 100% electrics, those buyers won't buy another hybrid.
Some buyers can only afford the cheapest car or only want to afford the cheapest car with the most fuel economy, and often that's a subcompact with a small four-cylinder engine and highway differential gearing, and in many instances that car gets as good fuel economy as a hybrid of of the next size-class up.
Lastly, hybrids often are equipped with more options or luxury options, which pushes up the price.
If you want hybrids to sell more, make them cheaper to buy, and sell them based on their fuel economy as the feature, not simply that they're a hybrid. That'll help attract buyers that want to avoid the dreaded "H word", and could get subcompact economy buyers to consider hybrids.
I'd personally like an all-electric, but I don't want a goofy looking car in the process. I want something like a modern Dart or 200 with a full-electric drivertrain, like the setup used in the Fiat 500e. But since Marchionnie doesn't even want to sell the 500e and is only doing so because California's laws require it, I doubt we'll see a Dart-electric or 200e anytime soon.
Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
We paid extra to rent a Prius went we went out West a few years ago. Don't recall which model year it was, 2007 or 2008 I think but could be wrong there. Either way I came away less than impressed. Strike One for me is anything with an automatic transmission, which makes me a relic I suppose, but there it is. The weird issue was with the seemingly hesitant throttle. There were times (turning left in front of oncoming traffic) where I stomped the gas and it seemed as though the computer had to stop and think, "Hmm.... electric, gas, or both?" and the car barely moved. Once it got going it had ample pick-up, for an automatic, but that 1-2 second delay took a lot of getting used to.
After a week of driving that thing I came away with the feeling that I would never own one. To be sure, there were some really neat things about it, like the dead silence when cruising at low speeds on the electric drive. Other than the throttle delay it handled as well as any mid-priced car I've driven. The build quality was nice and about what you'd expect in the price range. The gas mileage was a lot less impressive than what I was expecting, though the large proportion of highway miles and my penchant for speeding in wide open spaces (did you know the Prius will happily cruise at 110mph?) doubtless had something to do with that. Frankly if most of your driving is highway I don't see the point, my $17,000 non-hybrid Honda Civic is competitive with the Prius when it comes to highway driving.... I can milk 43-44mpg out of my Civic without trying that hard, and that's despite living in a hilly region.
I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
Except it means that while the people who were buying hybrids are now buying pure-electric vehicles, the people who weren't buying hybrids, still aren't buying hybrids. That means that the number of people who stopped buying ordinary gas vehicles has peaked.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
The way I understood it, hybrids were meant as a bridge between gasoline powered cars and electric cars. Especially with Tesla's recent decision on releasing its patents, we'll only see more electric cars. So hybrids will eventually go by the wayside anyway.
Indeed. The problem with a 'standard' hybrid is that it's still purely powered by gasoline. You go to a 'strong' hybrid or outright EV with a battery pack large enough and set up for charging from the wall you can actually enjoy the lower 'fuel' price of electricity. Battery pack prices aren't dropping like a rock, but they are on a strong decline, such that the weak hybrid battery pack of a decade ago was more expensive than the strong battery packs of today.
If you can chop half your fuel bill by spending roughly $2k to get a car with a plug on it, why wouldn't you? That's roughly $1.6k for a larger battery and $400 for the charging system. At ~$200 per kwh, that's an extra 8 kwh or ~24 miles of range. Remember, hybrid. That's enough to increase the pure EV range to 30-40 miles, which will cover 'most' commutes, and gas station visits to less than once a month in most cases.
I don't read AC A human right
I got me a 350Z convertible.
When you don't drive many miles, fuel efficiency is moot. Fun factor is not.
I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
I don't know about anybody else, but the Prius reminds me of a really fat kid that doesn't ever want to do anything and whines whenever you try to get him to so much as go outside. Just a combination of its appearance (kind of big and round without much space to actually put stuff in) and gutless, redundant power train. (Yes, it actually has two power trains; which is an otherwise inefficient design.)
If I was in the market for a new car, I think by far I'd go for something Tesla.
It's still not a "problem", though - since CAFE standards have really kicked in and average sedan mileage starts to approach hybrid mileage. Fleet mileage is the only important number, and a Prius-sized "regular" car is all the way up to around 37 MPG this coming year. Every year, the incentive to go hybrid gets weaker as the CAFE standards get tighter.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
The i.MIEV is not a hybrid. It's electric. Which has its own sales problems because the powertrain is so simple and robust that it requires very little maintenance, so dealers HATE selling them (they don't make as much profit on new car sales since their margins always get squeezed and someone has to pay the interest on those 0% financing and stuff). Dealers love it when customers come back for service, because service is a high-margin item. High enough they toss in stuff like free oil changes and other cheap things to encourage returning. And do it every 3-6 months, at that.
An EV doesn't have many moving parts - just the motor, gearbox and wheels. Unlike an ICE, you don't need to do much maintenance beyond ensuring the coolant levels are OK, vital fluids (like say, brake fluid) are sufficient, etc. You can easily get away without having service them for 2 years or more. Heck, Tesla offers a "we-cover-everything-but-tires" service for $600 annually (including consumables!), and while cheaper than most vehicle services over the same period, is also optional and doesn't void your warranty if you don't do it.
Hybrids are great for dealers because the ICE requires regular servicing, and the motor couplers (for those where the motor and engine can drive the wheels) introduce more complexity for servicing (more $$$).
The other thing is, well, a lot of hybrids have piss-poor gas mileage that can be obtained with an all-gas vehicle. And some hybrids just plain suck or have poor reviews.
The reason Prius owners aren't buying new hybrids: because their Priuses are still running great. Mine is ten years old and runs as well as a brand new one.
I've got a 2002 Prius which still runs great. It's still using the factory battery pack, which isn't showing any signs of needing replacement.
Admittedly, they're expensive. I recently got a 2013 Prius C as a second car, and the reasonable alternative would have been a Honda Fit for about two thirds of the price. But after driving a car with a no-shift transmission there's no way I'm going back to the stuttery shifts of an automatic. When I hit the gas, I want the car to go - not start going and then pause to think about what gear it should be in.
-- The act of censorship is always worse than whatever is being censored. Always.
You don't have to replace the whole pack all at once:
Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
The TCO estimates also use 15,000 miles/year as their base. Some people are fortunate enough to choose a place to live that is close to their job (or vice versa). My wife puts a whole 3500 miles on her Camry each year and I put around 7000 on the Sienna. They simply don't make hybrids or electrics that are cost effective for us.
W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
All one manufacturer needs to do is be able to make one without bells and whistles, and aim for economy. Make a plug in hybrid for under $16,000, and people who care about their wallet will buy enmass. It doesn't make sense to buy a plugin hybrid when you can buy a cheaper car that comes with "free gasoline." When I look at cars and go,"Okay, I could by a hybrid or a car ten grand cheaper, the 100,000 miles of free gasoline means it isn't economically sensible." A plug in hybrid that is economically feasible could vastly improve poor people's lives. They could go from store to store shopping for deals if they wanted since the biggest reason not to now is that the gasoline overhead of traveling.
I guess as long as some people are still buying the more expensive hybrids that is good for the future of the technology to come down in price, but I don't know any manufacturer who has done it yet.
God spoke to me
My wife and I purchased a 2005 Prius (back when they were quite uncommon). Wife's car. She loved it. Very reliable. Great mileage in warm weather, decent mileage in winter (37 mpg).
I liked her Prius so much I bought a 2010 Prius. Better gas mileage than the 2005, plus the option to boost power on demand, made this car a dream to drive. The interior fit, though, is sad (annoying rattle under the glove box).
We recently upgraded my wife's 2005 Prius to a 2012 Chevy Volt. OMG. So quiet! And the initial torque when you step on the accelerator...wow, just wow. The 2012 Volt makes my 2010 Prius seem like a go cart. My wife's current game with the car is to see how little gas she can use. So far, 2 tanks consumed and both of those were mandatory burnoffs required by the Volt after the gas sat in the car (unused) for 12 months. Her current lifetime gas mileage (as recorded by Chevy) is 597 MPG.
My next car will not be a Prius...it will be an electric of some type.
When I can but a Toyota Matrix for half the price, get twice the cargo space and still get 38 mpg. I think consumers are realizing that hybrids are just a clever way for automakers to tax people who suck at math.
Really it sounds like you suck at math, but full points for hyperbole.
The Matrix gets 28 MPG, not 38 MPG. (vs 50 MPG for the Prius)
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg...
The Matrix doesn't have twice the cargo space. According the same link, the Matrix has LESS cargo space than the Prius.
The Matrix wasn't half the price (It Appears the Matrix is no more), but again according to the above. Matrix was $19275 vs $24200 for Prius. Hardly half. The Base Prius is also a lot better equipped than a Base Matrix.
Also the average driver would save $850 annually on gas driving the Prius over the Matrix(if gas prices stay the same), meaning it would take 5.8 years to make up the price difference, after that it is gravy and you have a better equipped car, and more savings going forward.
They are a bit pricey, yes; HOWEVER, my Fusion Hybrid works out pretty well in hills without issues. Granted, hills tend to reduce the hybrid benefit going up them--but that's beside the point.
Let me give you some numbers.
I drove from Baltimore, Maryland to Quebec City, Canada last month. Not only did I drive it to Quebec City, but I drove it up into the mountains of "Parc National des Grand-Jardins" in Charlevoix, Quebec. This mountain drive took us up into the clouds and down again, with 10% grades or more. This drive also took me through the Adirondack Mountains on I-87. While the bulk of the drive was done on highway, I made a couple of hour pitstop in Jersey City, NJ; and it was mine and my buddy's commuter around Quebec City when we needed it to go to the movie theater, etc.
All in all, the 1600 mile or so round trip drive achieved 46.1 MPG. Note: I didn't reset the trip timer until I was somewhere on Route 1 in Pennsylvania (I avoided 95 for the first portion of the trip until just past Philadelphia).
http://i.imgur.com/Vv7Y8Lf.jpg is a picture of the trip stats.
For what it's worth, Ford quotes 47/47 for the MPG, and I achieved 46.1 driving through mountain terrain in the northeast Appalachian and Laurentian Mountain ranges. Feel free to debate all you wish.
I didn't "hyper mile" or any of the other weird tricks that some hybrid users use. I made liberal use of cruise control except on the 10-15% mountain grades in Quebec. I maintained roughly about 65-70mph over the speed limit on all US highway driving, with 100-110km/h in Quebec.
You have to learn NOT to lead foot your car, not tailgate, and just cruise. Ease into your stops, and try to limit the stark contrasts in speed. Don't tailgate the next guy, slam your breaks until you're at 0-5, then floor it to 60 to do it again.
2001-2003 Toyota Prius (1st generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
2004-2008 Toyota Prius (2nd generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
2009-present Toyota Prius (3rd generation) - $3,939 minus $1,350 "core credit"
Toyota Camry Hybrid - $3,541, core credit deducted
Toyota Highlander Hybrid - $4,848, core credit deducted
"has over a 300 mile range when being driven aggressively with the A/C and/or heater running and the audio system blasting"
that would be "All of them"
You're an idiot.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
I hear this from people who drive a stick all the time, and I've never understood it.
When I drive a stick, if I'm starting on a hill I pull the parking brake with my hand, keeping the button held in so it didn't latch, and not release it till I had enough traction with the engine to support the car so it didn't roll backwards.
Doesn't anyone else do this?
And as far as wanting a transmission that doesn't shift, you can get CVTs on non-hybrids, too. Most of them, however, are programmed to mimic an automatic's shift pattern because it's what people expect.
Random selection from anecdotal biased observation? what could go wrong.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
If I was in the market for a new car, I think by far I'd go for something Tesla.
If you can afford one, go for it. I'd do the same, but then again, I have a 10 year old Prius that's going fine (got a high-voltage battery replacement just last week - but that's covered under my state-mandated 10 year warranty) - cost to upgrade - $75k+, cost to keep my 50+mpg car? close to zero.
Now if I could buy an EV or hybrid minivan (none of this Prius V bullshit, Toyota - you sell the Hybrid Estima in Japan, why not here!?!) - I'd buy one in a heartbeat and replace my Prius.
btw, If you're complaint about the Prius appearance - what's the drag coefficient of your car? Is it as good as my 10 year old Prius? 'Cause that's why it looks like it does - it's part of it's design elegance.
Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting
Seriously, our subsidy program is the absolute WORST approach going.
.01/KWH that feeds into the state's DOT where it occurred at. That should help slow down the wailing by the far right, but of course, it will never stop it.
We should kill the subsidies for all small-medium size hybrid passenger vehicles, and only have it available for serial hybrids on large passenger and all commercial vehicles. Why do this? Because with a serial vehicle, it becomes trivial to switch the vehicle from a gas generator, to say a nat gas. generator, an H2 fuel cell, or even a flow battery. Basically, it allows our fleet to move across different fuels as economics dictate.
In addition, all electric vehicles should be based on Mile Per Charge or MPC, as shown by EPA. If a passenger vehicle gets less than 100 MPC, then it means only a 50 mile range MAX. The reality is that it will be 35-45 range. This will encourage daytime charging, which will increase daytime demand, which will increase the price of electricity. IOW, all aspects of society will be subsidizing these kinds of cars. As such, there should be little to NO subsidy on these.
Likewise, if a passenger vehicle gets 100-150 MPC, it should get around 5-7K subsidy.
And if a passenger vehicle gets above 150 MPC, give it 10-15K. Why? Because these will always be night chargers, EXCEPT when going for long distance.
OTOH, if a commercial vehicle such as a USPS vehicle which only drives less than 40 miles PER DAY TOTAL is ideal for a large subsidy. The reason is that they will be charging at night time. I am not opposed to giving such a vehicle 10-15K subsidy.
Regardless, we should start a tax on all daytime chargers that are available to use. Add
The interesting item is the nat gas vehicles. A smart move here is to come up with a tax that starts high and drops every year for the next 5-6 years. In the first 2 years, it should be used to get LNG stations along federal highways within 100 miles of each other, and at least 3 CNG stations in every single county in the nation. For the next 3-4 years, all of it should go into NEW commercial and large passenger vehicles that use Nat Gas. Larger subsidies for serial hybrids. By doing this, it gets manufacturers to switch over and for companies to buy new vehicles. Sometime later, other vehicles will switch IFF the price of nat gas is low.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
It seems some hybrid early adopters are now switching to plug-in hybrids or electric cars
Plug-in hybrids are hybrids. "We find that if we exclude many of the more recent models of hybrids from our analysis, the number of people buying hybrids isn't increasing."
Well duh...
"I'm too busy to research this and form an educated opinion, but I do have time to tell everyone my uninformed opinion."
Just this once, being Scottish doesn't make you right.
Here's an explanation. I notice you said everyone else is doing it wrong, but neglected to explain why your car lets you ride the clutch without wearing parts.
My wife and I both have our own cars to drive to work. She drives a compact SUV that we have had for a few years and I drive a Nissan LEAF. We can take the gas car if we need to go on a long trip and we have the LEAF to use the rest of the time. When we go out we always take the LEAF. It is much cheaper to operate and it is a blast to drive. Most of the families I know with two cars would be much happier with one gas car and one electric car.
http://articles.latimes.com/20...
The real solution is pure electric
The energy source may be batteries, supercapacitors or hydrogen..or something new??
Hybrids are at best an intermediate solution
The good news is that they advanced the manufacturing experience of electric motors and control electronics for vehicle use ,,and started consumers thinking that gasoline is not the only path
I'm guessing, since I've heard this argument before, that s/he's saying that if you're going to drive a car that will be an average of 7 1/2 years old over the time you own it, you might as well buy a used car to start with and avoid the upfront depreciation hit of a new vehicle.
I'm with you, though. My response to the person who made this argument to me was to refer him to George Akerlof's The Market for Lemons, and my sentiment that it's worth it for me to know that the only one to ever abuse my vehicle is me.
Momentarily, the need for the construction of new light will no longer exist.
I hear this from people who drive a stick all the time, and I've never understood it.
When I drive a stick, if I'm starting on a hill I pull the parking brake with my hand, keeping the button held in so it didn't latch, and not release it till I had enough traction with the engine to support the car so it didn't roll backwards.
Probably because the US doesn't teach people to drive manuals properly any more.
What you described is called a "handbrake hill start" in Australia and is exactly the way to stop yourself from rolling back on a hill. Put the car in gear, hold the handbrake on, bring the clutch up to the friction point, push the accelerator to get the revs up and drop the handbrake... Simple and should take half the time the moron in front of you takes to drop their phone when they realise the lights have changed.
You can also do it sans the hand brake by using heel/toe shifting... But that is advanced driving where as most motorists these days fail at the basics like indicating, looking ahead, scanning their mirrors or keeping a consistent speed.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
Hill start was part of the UK driving test when I took it.
1) I need a car that will do 80 consecutive miles without a charge.
2) I need a car that can go 300 or 400 miles - in whatever manner.
That means one of three things:
1) A rapid charge after 80 miles (sub 15 minutes)
2) One of those sweet-looking NASCAR-esque battery swaps that Tesla does, or
3) A hybrid
It also has to hit a reasonable price point to make it comparable to an efficient gasoline burner, i.e. sub-$45,000.
Less than 80 consecutive miles and my initial purchase cost is no longer offset by the fuel savings. Less than a 400-mile trip and I have to own a second car for business trips. Both of these are show-stoppers for me, and anyone else who has any sort of reasonable daily work commute.
If Tesla can achieve their goal of making a car for $35,000 - I'm in. If I can get a plug-in hybrid with a battery pack that will go 80 miles, I'm in. Until then, I'm stuck with high-MPG gas burners - which for the time being are still more cost efficient over their life span.
Though ideologically, even at a higher price point, I'd be more than happy to stop purchasing gas, even at a higher overall cost. I'm just waiting for someone to make a practical vehicle that will let me do just that.
If you have an electric power train, then you don't have a hybrid.
That doesn't make sense.
Ezekiel 23:20
Let's check the math.
2014 Highlander 4WD Limited*: $41,960 18/24 mpg (21 averaged)
2014 Highlander Hybrid Limited AWD: $48,160 27/28 mpg (27.5 averaged)
Price difference: $6,200
Fuel cost per mile, $4 gallon: 19 cents vs 14.5
Savings per mile: 4.5 cents
Break Even: 138k miles
Time: 9.2 years.
Conclusion: Not worth it.
What if you're a 'city slicker'?
Cost per mile: 22 cents vs 15, diff 7
Break Even: 89k miles, 5.9 years. Worth it.
*Keeping the trim levels the same t
I don't read AC A human right
Also, by buying a new car you can also get what you want, as opposed to what you manage to find on the used car lot. Which may be important if you have to live with the car for 15 years. With that said though, nowadays you just don't have the option to order it exactly how you want from the factory like you could 50 years ago, with some high-end exceptions.
I want a BMW ActiveHybrid, or a Saab hybrid. Unfortunately with the second death of SAAB, the hybrid 9-3 eAWD project was killed off in favor of pure EVs alongside the existing 9-3 ICE model. In the case of BMW, the ActiveHybrid3 is available only as RWD, not xDrive (AWD).
So, for an all wheel drive sedan I'm sticking with ICE and trading in my Saab on either a used 9-3 XWD or a new 335 xDrive. I wish someone made the hybrid I want (an AWD/XWD sports sedan), but they don't. It seems the only AWD hybrid options right now are either extremely high end exotic hybrids or SUVs - the former are not in my budget and not practical for NH winters anyway, and I do not want an SUV for a daily driver.
The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
I do 30k per year. Back in 03, I bought a car with 25 mpg. It was fine at $2 per galllon. In 08 I bought a car that got 17 mpg. Joke was on me, gas doubled shortly thereafter. New car time. Euro diesel experience, rental and relatives, at $10 per gallon, was instructive. Here in the US, though, cheap is VW, moderate BMW, expensive MB. Hybrid is great for short distances and city. I considered and drove the Volt, but it was going "gas" at 40 miles.... A VW TDi diesel gets close to 40 mpg at 80 mph. I'd love the e90 320d I rented in Berlin, but that never made it over to North America. Diesel has great torque....pulls constantly, and other than winning 0-60 drag races, is a better overall package for the normal driver. I'm only limited by tires around town. My 3 series wins on a highway, but for city or normal commuting, the less horsepower diesel with more torque is more useful than the bigger horsepower car. We drove around bavaria with a 320d and a 316i. The diesel spanked the gas car on the autobahn. At the end of the same trip at same speeds, the gas car used a tank and a half more fuel, which meant $180 in fuel costs. (they are same price in Germany-not in US). Different tools for different jobs. I've had a few different cars, and a diesel car is like the old big block two barrel version of the big American car. Huge pull off the line, just don't spin it up. (The diametric opposite of the Euro car-like my Mk. 2 16v GTi) I'm still amazed that in Berlin I saw Chrysler minivans with 4 cyl turbodiesels but none in the US...on the very same school run.
"Series hybrids .. are designed to be run mostly by the battery, but have a petrol or diesel generator to recharge the battery when going on a long drive."
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...
I think you hit the nail on the head. Hybrids aren't economical. It all comes down to dollars. For it to work, gas would have to be over $5/gallon and driving all stop-and-go for hybrids to make sense.
I can get a Honda Fit for more than $10k less and similar gas mileage and maintenance.
We should see another climb when we get economical plug-in vehicles. However, the long term trend for battery improvement is only 5% a year, so it'll be a while. As in a decade or three.
Ah well, I guess I can see that point as well, since I typically only buy used. There is a use case for either method. His two sentence post didn't seem to make that clear. The one brand new vehicle I bought was because of what toddestan replied to you about. I had a specific type of truck with a specific set of options that I had to have, but most importantly I had too damned much money so I kind of bit off more than I could chew. I won't make that mistake again. If buying new works great for you and gives you the peace of mind you like to have, then keep on truckin! Unlike most folks, I do my own auto work and so I'm used to the quirky nature of well-beaten vehicles and I won't get those $1000 repair bills every time I take it in. If you aren't a grease monkey, I can totally understand why you'd always want new. But I will say that all these people talking depreciation levels, total cost of ownership and all the other economical buzz words just don't get people like me. I don't care one bit if the "value" of the vehicle depreciates. Depreciation ONLY matters if you want to sell that vehicle. I never sell mine nor trade them. The value of a vehicle to me is if the damned thing does what it is supposed to, ie runs and drives. I run them until they fall the hell apart. Once that happens, either it takes a ride to the scrap yard (where I get about $500 for it) or I give it to a needy teenager if I think it is safe enough.
Thanks for the link btw. I didn't realize someone actually put pen and calculator to the used car market, so much so they got a Nobel for it! For an anecdote though, I have bought one used lemon, but more importantly, that one new truck I bought was probably the sourest lemon I've tasted! Nothing but problems. GM can burn in hell!
Series hybrids are... not hybrids. Any motor drive is going to have to have a considerable energy buffer. The only real difference between the "series hybrid" and the old diesel-electric systems we've had for decades on trains, ships, and submarines is the size of that buffer. The only reason for the term to exist is because "hybrid" became a buzzword, and so existing systems wanted to join in the publicity.
My 2002 had a pack replaced last fall at 170,000 miles. Two weeks later, a semi changed lanes into it. I kept the new battery and put it into a 2003 with 135,000 miles on it. Fully expect to get another 170K on it.
What impressed me most was the reliability. At 170K miles the car still had over 50% of the original brake pads, all the original bulbs still work, etc. Changed the plugs at 120K Miles. Changed the 12 V battery 3 times. and regular oil and tire changes. Nothing broke on it in normal wear and tear.
Never had a car with that longevity before.
Saved on the Hybrid battery replacement by purchasing a new one online and changing it my self. Plenty of info online on chainging it, complete with safety info. If you change batteries in a 3-50KW UPS, you should have no problem changing out the pack.
The truth shall set you free!
I'm going to go ahead and assume that you didn't buy a "really fat kid" for yourself, and 'splain some things that I've learned as a nerdy Prius owner...
First, it's not gutless as you might think. It's not going to win any awards for acceleration, but it can do 0-60 in 9.7 seconds. That's probably on the slower half of the scale, but still faster than a Yaris Hatchback or Matrix, as well as non-US models like the Avensis, Aygo, or Auris - and that's looking only at Toyota sedans. Most of the gutlessness comes from us schmucks inside the car, who are in no hurry to rush you to the next red light when we can get there at the same time as you, and with half as much fuel, by taking it easy. Some of the gutlessness comes from a software setting that adjusts the throttle response to the gas pedal's position; in Eco mode, you really have to mash the pedal if you want to move, while PWR mode makes it more like most American cars where it's jumpy if you so much as look at the gas pedal. In between is "Normal" mode. There are plenty of Prius owners who hate the car in anything but PWR mode because they like to accelerate fast.
Second, it is a HUGE car on the inside relative to most of my friends' sedans. A good amount of the space is vertical, so it helps if whatever you're carrying is tall or can be stacked. But I've carried 3'x8' sheets of plywood, an 8-foot ladder, or 4 people and backpacking gear for a 4-day wilderness trip. Many people can carry several bicycles inside the car without taking them apart - my wife and I are both very tall, so we have to take off the front wheel of our bikes to fit our bikes in. Out of all my friends, none have cars that can carry any of those things - except one bicycle with the wheels removed, and the handlebars sticking out the window.
Third, I'd say it doesn't really have two power trains; it has one power train of which the gasoline engine and two motor-generators are an integral part. The car would be incapable of driving if any of them are removed, although it'd be easier to remove the gasoline engine if anything. The Prius doesn't have a normal transmission; there are two planetary gearsets that connect the MGs and engine to the wheels. By adjusting the speed and direction of the MGs, pretty much any gear ratio can be obtained. It's sometimes called an "eCVT" because of this, but it could just as easily be called a single-speed transmission. Get rid of the electronic parts of the powertrain, and you'd have to put in a transmission instead to replace it. Also, you'd lose the regeneration abilities of being a hybrid. Of course, if you remove the engine, you'd have to use a much larger battery instead - and even then, the Prius motors are not designed for high-speed use (over 45 mph, the engine has to be spinning to keep the motors from over-revving; I think the limit is about 60 mph in the plug-in variant of the Prius). So both halves of the powertrain are really required for it to work, much less for it to work as efficiently as it does.
That's not to say it's a car for everybody - and indeed, if your choices come down to a Tesla anything or a Prius, I'd go with the Tesla any day unless you plan on regularly exceeding its range in areas where high-speed charging is not available. But it's a good choice of cars for many people.
That said, I'm not surprised that hybrid sales occasionally have a down year - but the trend still seems to be pretty positive. Even though they mention share dropping from 2009 to 2010, the hybrid share is still up about 15% since 2009, at about 3.2% of all cars. Meanwhile, EVs are starting to take off, and often catch the attention of the same eco-minded type that was purchasing the early hybrid models years ago. Still, they only amount to about 0.6% of all vehicle sales. But I don't think hybrids are a long-term solution, just like gas cars aren't either. Unless we start synthesizing gasoline from something other than oil, we'll need to find an alternative fuel sooner or later - whether that means EVs or something else, only time will tell.
All I can say is that I hope Tesla gets other auto makers fired up, otherwise I may have to find a big pile of cash next time I want to buy a car...
The summary suggests that plug-in hybrids are something different from hybrids - surely that's wrong: they're just a particular kind of hybrid.
However, the long term trend for battery improvement is only 5% a year
5% improvement in capacity perhaps, but costs are falling more rapidly than that. Tesla's plan is not to just wait for technology to improve, but to drive the cost down by building a very large factory and getting economy of scale. Considering the Model E is due in the next couple of years with a $35k price point that suggests that they expect the price to fall much faster than 5%. In that case range is just a case of adding more cells.
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SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Anecdotes say that NYC taxi drivers, with all their stop-and-go cyclings of the batteries, are going 350k-500k miles and some are just beginning to need replacements. Average consumers are seeing usually a minimum of 150k or so from online anecdotes, though most people don't keep cars that long anyhow.
And there are third party outfits that do replacements for $2000 now.
There are a huge number of yeast infections in this county. Probably because we're downriver from the bread factory.
Except that isn't always the case. After shopping around for a while I found a decent deal where I only paid a $3k premium for the hybrid version of the vehicle I wanted. According to fuelly.com I am averaging 26mpg better than the average for the non-hybrid version. So, even accounting for my driving more conservative than most people, I will still make up that $3k in 3-4 years given the amount of driving I do.
And I keep my cars for 8-10 years. So in my case the hybrid option definitely made sense and will be a money maker for the majority of my vehicle ownership.