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The Bursting Social Media Advertising Bubble

schwit1 writes One of the great "paradigms" of the New Normal tech bubble that supposedly differentiated it from dot com bubble 1.0 was that this time it was different, at least when it came to advertising revenues. The mantra went that unlike traditional web-based banner advertising which has been in secular decline over the past decade, social media ad spending — which the bulk of new tech company stalwarts swear is the source of virtually unlimited upside growth — was far more engaging, and generated far greater returns and better results for those spending billions in ad bucks on the new "social-networked" generation. Sadly, this time was not different after all, and this "paradigm" has also turned out to be one big pipe dream. According to the WSJ, citing Gallup, "62% of the more than 18,000 U.S. consumers it polled said social media had no influence on their buying decisions. Another 30% said it had some influence. U.S. companies spent $5.1 billion on social-media advertising in 2013, but Gallup says "consumers are highly adept at tuning out brand-related Facebook and Twitter content."

22 of 254 comments (clear)

  1. Tuning it out? by XanC · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'll say we're tuning it out. With AdBlock we don't even receive it.

    1. Re:Tuning it out? by Anon,+Not+Coward+D · · Score: 5, Insightful

      i do use it... but i'd like to see statistics regarding how prevalent it's usage really is. I mean beyond the geek circle :)

      my guess is that adbloc isn't really an issue (unless firefox and chrome make it a default plugin).

      of course the point that marketing effect on consumer behavior is largely unconcious remains.. so that's the real handicap on this study

      --
      Sometimes it's better not having signature
    2. Re:Tuning it out? by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Interesting

      of course the point that marketing effect on consumer behavior is largely unconcious remains.. so that's the real handicap on this study

      This "study" is garbage. Most people have always said that advertising doesn't effect them. They said the same thing back in the days of TV, radio, and print. Poll results mean nothing. Web ads link to specific landing pages that allow the advertisers to track the source of the click, and track it to any eventual purchase. If the ads weren't paying, the advertisers wouldn't be running them.

      My company runs web ads, and we know exactly which are working, and which aren't. Social media sites actually don't work well for us. Search engine text ads, triggered by specific search terms work much better. But social media ads appear to be working fine for many other advertisers.

    3. Re:Tuning it out? by epyT-R · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If you want to force people into it, then put your content behind a paywall. Then you will find out what it is really worth. If you leave it open on a public facing server, you are implicitly offering it. The internet is not cable tv. You don't get to dictate what happens to your content inside computers that do not belong to you.

    4. Re:Tuning it out? by Znork · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Social media advertisement is the sales guy sitting down at your table in the bar and trying to sell you a new refrigerator when you're hanging with friends because he saw you looking at refrigerators two weeks ago in a shop.

      Search or content related advertising is the sales guy trying to sell you a new refrigerator when you're looking at refrigerators.

      One of those has a chance to make a sale and might even be appreciated. The other is just irrelevant.

      For sales, it's pointless to know what a customer is interested in if you don't know when they're interested in it, which means you're always better off targeting content over people because content has both temporal targeting as well as interest targeting implicitly right, while person profiling and social media presentation only gets a generic long term interest profile and implicitly targets people doing something other than being interested in products.

    5. Re:Tuning it out? by s.petry · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Part of me wonders whether advertising actually works, or is simply a formalized form of hidden bribery

      Sure, advertising works. That's why we have had TV commercials since very early on. Does it work the way people claim it does on the Internet? Well, that is a different question and that answer is "depends".

      I think an important thing to remember, is that a metric assload of science has been done specifically for advertising. For some reason, that science is not really used with advertising on Web sites.

      What works? Easy. Products and placement with certain colors and sounds, targeting your average audience. This is why demographics for TV and Radio shows are important. Have younger females listening? Advertise woman's products, "light" alcohol, and healthier foods. Have a bunch of younger males watching? Advertise beer, fast food (Extra Big Ass Fries), and men's products. Have a mix of younger adults, run gender neutral ads for cleaning products, baby products, and "family" style food.

      The key here is that ads have to be appealing, not overwhelming. Sure, some people fall for the infomercial fast talking guy showing off their "Amazing (Billy Mayes TM)" products, but those are an extreme minority. The majority of web sites either don't care about overloading consumers or don't realize they are doing it.

      What does not work? Overload. Slashdot currently has dozens of adds, all blinking and flashing in an attempt to get your attention. This method of advertising is equivalent to having 10 TV commercials simultaneously sharing your TV screen. It's annoying, and the overwhelming majority of people won't click anything even if they might be interested. What they will do is open a new browser window and search in clean space for the product and information. This way they can get it without the overloading of senses. Web sites decided a while ago that since you can't target an audience by any rational means, the majority of the time, you have to overload people with everything they might possibly want and pray that a user clicks and generates a fraction of a penny.

      Services like Google ads try to make more sense of your audience so that you can target them more like TV/Radio commercials. Web sites on a massive scale may use the targeted ads, but are still overloading "hoping" for a click.

      Psychological studies have shown how good sensory overloading can be at causing discomfort and confusing the audience. Ever wonder why CNN and MSNBC have shit flashing all over the place? Overloading is a huge reason why, and yes it's intentionally done. Not for advertising purposes, but it's an interesting one to study.

      --

      -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

    6. Re:Tuning it out? by Tyndmyr · · Score: 4, Informative

      It isn't adblock...it's clickfarms that are killing it. Some people buy likes to look popular, and these are done via bots or underpaid folks in poor countries. Meh, no big deal, right? Well, if you buy likes, those accounts are pretty worthless, and the lack of interaction means your posts will be rated badly, and not shown to nearly as many of your fans who are real people. So...just don't buy likes, then? Well, the problem doesn't end there. To disguise themselves, the spam accounts go through and click like on random different things to obscure patterns. Legitimately bought ads will produce mostly worthless likes from clearly foreign accounts, regardless of where they claim to be from, or how you filter your ad purchasing. This is why I no longer purchase facebook ads in pursuit of likes.

      --
      Support more choices in goverment-Vote 3rd party.
  2. Are customer able to evaulate that objectively? by rastos1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    62% of the more than 18,000 U.S. consumers it polled said social media had no influence on their buying decisions.

    Are the customers able to recognize whether they got influenced? I thought that current advertising methods are predominantly trying to influence subconsciousness rather then consciousness decisions.

    1. Re:Are customer able to evaulate that objectively? by i+kan+reed · · Score: 4, Informative

      Which is why advertising is a poison to society and must be destroyed. The set of advertising that is tolerable: (i.e. makes you think "That is an excellent point and I should reconsider my purchasing") is so heavily outpaced by the kind that's hellbent on being emotionally and psychologically manipulative to get you to do things against your own interest that it would be entirely acceptable collateral damage in my opinion.

    2. Re:Are customer able to evaulate that objectively? by Runaway1956 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Good point. I remember the '60's, and the radio jingles. I was just a kid then, but some of the jingles would stick in my head. Talked to someone who knew about such things, and he told me that even if it pissed me off, the advertisers thought it was a "GOOD THING" when those jingles stuck.

      Now, today, I don't see advertising. I know that advertising doesn't influence me. I just don't see it.

      When I need or want something, I get online, and start researching. I find a hundred products that claim to do what I need, so I narrow it down some. Compare some specs, and decide which of the specs really feel right to me. Is precision more important, or durability? Do I need tensile strength, abrasion resistance, or what do I need? Find some products with the specs I can live with. Finally, look at the prices. HOLY SHITE!! Reject the highest priced 25% right off the bat. Compare the specs again. Hell, those cheap things barely squeak in to the acceptability picture. I'm usually left with a half dozen or less products to choose from - at this point it's a matter of deciding whether to take the high or low end of the price spectrum.

      Research pays off. When I finally get my stuff, it actually works for whatever I need. And, I usually got it for about 60% of whatever my workmates found their substandard items for.

      --
      "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
    3. Re:Are customer able to evaulate that objectively? by HornWumpus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You selected your soap, toothpaste, laundry detergent when you were a teen or younger (you just use your parents band).

      The fact that you are no longer 'in play' doesn't mean you are brand immune.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  3. No one is ever influenced by advertising by Minupla · · Score: 4, Insightful

    No one is ever influenced by advertising, ask around. People say "no, I'd never buy something because it's on TV" but those infomercials stay in business for a reason.

    So polling people and asking them if advertising is effective on them is a bit of a red herring. Like IQ tests - logically half the world has IQs less then 100. Oddly, I've never met any of them.

    Now the question 'is social advertising effective' is certainly open for debate, but not because some survey says people believe it's not effective on themselves.

    Min

    --
    On the whole, I find that I prefer Slashdot posts to twitter ones because I don't get limited to 140 chars before
  4. Two things every bubble has in common... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    1. It's always different this time.

    2. It's not different this time.

  5. Why "Sadly"? by unamiccia · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why can't we celebrate how the Internet continues to resist freighting information with advertising? That's one of its best attributes.

  6. The article actually made two points by Registered+Coward+v2 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    1.) Social media advertising isn't as effective as advertisers hoped.

    2.) Social media can be mined for data about your products, what people think of them, and overall opinions about your company. It is also a tool for engaging with customers.

    Point 2 is much more useful to companies that 1; which means the real money in Twitter et. al. is data mining, not advertising.

    --
    I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
  7. "Secular decline" by Rick+Zeman · · Score: 4, Funny

    As opposed to a holy increase as in "Holy shit, we're actually making money with these ads?"

    Spectacular, perhaps?

  8. people don't know themselves very well by MooseTick · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "According to the WSJ, citing Gallup, "62% of the more than 18,000 U.S. consumers it polled said social media had no influence on their buying decisions."

    I suspect most people would answer a poll saying advertising NEVER influences their buying decisions. Independent analysis may prove otherwise. Coke, GM, or whoever don't spend billions on advertising because they think it helps. They have done lots of tests and analysis, and they know it helps. Sure, lots of advertising is a waste. But targetted advertising at the right time and place can have a ROI.

  9. People don't understand branding. by gurps_npc · · Score: 5, Informative
    Look, there are two basic kinds of advertisement:

    Informational: This is what most people think advertising is all about. It provides you with information about a product. It might be telling you a new product exists, or just a new flavor/kind of an existing product. It might tell you about what it does, or the price, at heart it is simple and easy to understand - people can't buy it if they don't know about it.

    Branding: This type of advertisement is not about information, it is about a feeling. It's what most of those 'cool' superbowl ads are trying to do. It's why Coca-cola and Apple keeps advertising (everybody already knows about Coca-Cola and they rarely talk about price/new products). This is about creating the feeling that this product is the kind of product that people like you buy. It also makes people believe the product is higher quality, because look, they can afford to advertise. (which also implies they have insurance to pay out if they accidentally put lead pain in your toothpaste, as opposed to that store brand you never see on TV).

    Because lay people don't understand branding, they routinely underestimate the value of advertising.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  10. Ad overload by timrod · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The reason the bubble is bursting is no doubt another case of ad overload. It's a cat-and-mouse game that's been going on forever - advertisers flood a given communication medium with advertisements and people find a way around it. TVs have things like the DVR (and earlier the VCR), one of the key selling points of which is being able to record a show and fast-forward through the commercials. There's also the TV culture of using commercials as a time to get a snack, go to the bathroom, or do something else and then come back afterward.

    The internet is becoming the same way. First it was pop-up and pop-under ads, which caused all of the mainstream browser developers to implement pop-up blockers as an integrated component of the browser. Sure, they're not 100% effective and many advertisers have tried to find workarounds for it (such as ads embedded into the website layout that cover content unless clicked away) but for the most part, the pop-up is nowhere near as effective as it used to be.

    The same thing is happening for banner and flash ads. In the days when Internet Explorer had near-100% market share, it was comparatively difficult to install an ad blocker, as most of them came as third-party programs that had to be installed separately. Now, most of the major browsers (IE still doesn't to the best of my knowledge) have a modding interface that allows for easy installation of things like Adblock.

    Advertisers have to learn how to advertise smart, rather than try to be as intrusive as possible.

  11. George Carlin said it best... by JoeyRox · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Every time you're exposed to advertising in America, you're reminded that this country's most profitable business is still the manufacture, packaging, distribution and marketing of bullshit. High quality, grade-A, prime-cut pure American bullshit."

  12. Re:What do you think "secular" means? by hendrips · · Score: 5, Informative

    In English, it means "from age to age" or "generational." This meaning is actually older than the meaning you're probably thinking of.

    It ultimately comes from the Etruscan word saeculum, via Latin. In Etruscan & Latin, it meant the amount of time needed for a complete renewal of the human population, and if I'm remembering correctly, it was eventually standardized at 110 years.

    I believe that all Romance languages use some variant on seculo as their word for century.

  13. What's the Influence of Crappy Polling? by Stormy+Dragon · · Score: 4, Insightful

    62% of the more than 18,000 U.S. consumers it polled said social media had no influence on their buying decisions.

    I hate polls that take some factual statement that is either objectively true or isn't, and then ask people whether they think it's true, as if that tells us anything about the factual matter rather than just the biases of the poll sample.

    Social media advertising either influences or it doesn't. And it will influence or it won't regardless of whether zero, half, or all of the country thinks it does.