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New Map Fingers Future Hot Spots For U.S. Earthquakes

sciencehabit writes Earthquake risk assessments can seem pretty abstract at first glance, with their "percent probabilities" and "peak ground accelerations." But the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS's) national hazard maps, updated periodically, pack a powerful punch: Insurance companies and city planners rely heavily on the maps, which influence billions of dollars in construction every year. Today, USGS scientists released the most recent earthquake hazard assessments for the country. Although the picture hasn't changed much on a national scale since the last report in 2008, the devil is in the details, the report's authors say—and some areas in the country are now considered to be at higher risk for powerful quakes than once thought.

26 of 49 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Protip by ArcadeMan · · Score: 4, Funny

    Apple knows this. You think their new building is shaped like a spaceship for no particular reason?

  2. Oklahoma: new land of the earthquakes by jmcbain · · Score: 1
    Oklahoma has recently had a spate of earthquakes. From the LA Times:

    The state had 109 temblors measuring 3.0 or greater in 2013 — more than 5,000% above normal. There have already been more than 200 earthquakes this year, Holland said.

    There is controversy in that the quakes have occurred after the start of fracking (and the disposal of wastewater), and the oil companies refuse to acknowledge the connection. However, I find this stance akin to the cigarette companies refusing to acknowledge a direction connection between smoking and lung cancer.

  3. Company say it's Been Proved by Anna+Merikin · · Score: 1

    Cuadrilla drilling company in UK has admitted publicly the link between fracking and earthquakes. The said this in 2011

    "It is highly probable that the hydraulic fracturing of Cuadrilla's Preese Hall-1 well did trigger a number of minor seismic events

    This, according to a Reuters report here: http://www.reuters.com/article...

    Other articles have reported various studies connecting fracking in Oklahoma with the new earthquakes flurries there and elsewhere in the US. Like Ohio: .http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/11/ohio-earthquakes-fracking_n_5136110.html

    And here http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

    1. Re:Company say it's Been Proved by rmdingler · · Score: 1
      Contrary to the premise that areas engaging in the most fracking are in danger of the greatest number of future earthquakes, West and South Texas are home to great numbers of frackers and low incidence of future geological events.

      Although i am under no illusion that mining hydrocarbons for energy is without consequence and repercussion, it is worth noting that any production of energy comes with an environmental or social cost.

      If we spent half the money on renewable energy development that we spend on waste, war, and surveillance, there would be no profit in releasing sequestered carbon.

      --
      Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

      Ernest Hemingway

    2. Re:Company say it's Been Proved by dywolf · · Score: 1

      There isn't enough "renewable" to go around

      B.S.
      More solar energy lands on the planet in one hour than the entire world uses in a year.
      As such the amount we actually need to capture and store is miniscule.
      A solar array 158 miles square could power the ENTIRE WORLD.
      We're talking 0.03% of the area of north africa.
      Obviously it's more practical to spread the array out, to save on transmission cable...
      and you REALLY need a smart grid for it to work most practically (our patchwork system is a mess)...
      But even so, it's possible we could turn just one county in Arizona into a massive solar array, the US would be energy independent for all time.
      We could spread arrays around the globe to provide continuous power at all times...or we could just make every home and building energy independent.

      Point is the future of planetbound humanity is solar.
      And that STILL leaves room for wind (a solar derivitive), tidal, etc. We could eliminate most hydropower, restoring river ecosystems.

      Someday fusion may be practical...but it isn't yet (and no, the lack of funding doesn't help), and won't be for some time.
      But solar is here. Today. Now.

      We could do it, NOW

      Point is, the notion that there isn't enough to go around, is pure stupidity.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    3. Re:Company say it's Been Proved by dywolf · · Score: 1
      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
  4. Self-justification by Gothmolly · · Score: 1

    If they spent all that money and time making a map which showed that there was LESS likelihood of earthquakes, people would scream boondogle. Now, because of douchebag grant-suckers, innocent people will suddenly have their insurance rates raised.

    --
    I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
    1. Re:Self-justification by Carnildo · · Score: 2

      Starting on page 12 of the report is a series of maps showing the changes since the 2008 report. Of note:

      * The South Carolina seismic zone has been displaced southward by about 50 miles.
      * The New Madrid zone has changed shape, with some areas seeing a substantial reduction in estimated earthquake risk.
      * The risk zones in California are more sharply defined.
      * The risk for the central Rocky Mountains area is higher, but still relatively low.
      * The earthquake risk estimate for coastal Oregon has been reduced.
      * A new seismic zone is present in Oklahoma, reflecting whatever is causing the massive increase in earthquake rates there.

      --
      "They redundantly repeated themselves over and over again incessantly without end ad infinitum" -- ibid.
  5. Re:Protip by riverat1 · · Score: 2

    California

    California has some pretty big earthquakes but for the really big quakes you need a subduction zone like the Cascadia that covers from just south of the Oregon border up to southern British Columbia or the Aleutian Megathrust zone off of southern Alaska. Those produce magnitude 9+ quakes like the one off of Indonesia a few years ago. Fortunately they don't happen that often.

  6. Yadda yadda yadda... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

    I've been waiting for the Great Earthquake to hit California for the last 30 years. Zzz...

  7. Re:God dammit by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

    With everyone getting stoned on legal pot, I doubt they will notice.

  8. Re:Apple Fingered my Girlfriend by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

    An iPhone going where no personal communicator has gone before.

  9. Re:Protip by jrumney · · Score: 1

    Alaska gets 8+ earthquakes fairly frequently. The luck is more that noone lives up there than the earthquake frequency (though a 9+ would no doubt cause some major damage down the coast)

  10. Happened in Colorado also in the 1960s by cruff · · Score: 1

    A deep waste injection well was drilled at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal NE of Denver in 1961 as a test for the disposal of toxic wastes. A test was run injecting water, and earthquakes resulted. I experienced a magnitude 3 or 4 quake myself as a result of this test. A report by David Evans documented this in 1966.

  11. Re:Protip by riverat1 · · Score: 1

    The 1964 Alaska earthquake was magnitude 9.2. I remember when it happened because the resulting tsunami killed 4 kids on the Oregon coast and 12 people in Crescent City, CA.

  12. Re:Strawman says it's Been Proved by hoboroadie · · Score: 1

    Your information is false.

    --
    They feared that it could be used to suppress protest or support unpopular rule.
  13. I'll stay here in the northeast by kilodelta · · Score: 2

    Why - we had our seismic events millions of years ago. That's why. Big old mountains to my north and the city I live in is comprised of many hills.

    On occasion we do get little 2-4 range tremblors though. Back in 2011 or so we were in the office and all felt a swaying sensation. We all noticed but after noticing just went back to what we were doing.

    1. Re:I'll stay here in the northeast by Solandri · · Score: 1

      That's actually why I avoid big cities in the Northeast. New York has had a quake of magnitude 5 in the recent past (1884 if I remember). While a 5 is not big, it is serious enough to do damage to unreinforced structures like brick. And the huge number of brick buildings in New York are about as unreinforced as they come. (Brick construction has no lateral strength, and topples over with just slight sideways shaking. One of the few fatalities in the 5.9 Whittier Narrows quake was a man who pulled his car off the road to ride out the quake, and the free-standing brick wall he parked next to fell on top of him.

      This map just shows you the likelihood of a big quake, not the potential for damage from a quake. To get the damage potential, you need to come up with a maps of how lenient the local building codes are, then multiply the two. The areas of highest risk are actually those where big or even moderate quakes are infrequent, leading to complacency among the residents and lax building codes.

      This is why a 5.7 in Morocco kills 12,000, while a 6.9 just outside San Francisco only kills a few score. Residents of the former city never thought a quake would hit there. Residents of the latter knew a big quake was coming and built appropriately. You couldn't pay me to live in St. Louis, South Carolina, east Tennessee, or New York City. All have the potential for moderate to huge quakes, but they're so rare the building codes don't take them into account.

  14. I'm happy here in North Carolina by dak664 · · Score: 1

    where the state legislature is not afraid to make suh environmental dangers illegal.

  15. new Colorado quakes due to injection by peter303 · · Score: 1

    1) near Rifle due to injecting irrigation waste water (too salty for river)
    2) near Trinadad, mine waters
    3) near Greeley, oil drilling waste.

  16. NE is high seismic risk by peter303 · · Score: 1

    M7 off Cape Ann in 1755 caused damage to young Boston.
    Several alrge faults in NYC area.
    The Saint Lawrence Seaway is a large fault and has quakes periodically.

  17. eastern Tennessee a mystery by peter303 · · Score: 1

    No historic large quake there, but lots of microseismicity.
    Western Tennesee is in the New Madrid tectonic zone with a large 1811 quake. But that is a dfferent tectonic zone.

  18. not new by peter303 · · Score: 1

    1) Very similar to previous USGS hazard maps.
    2) Nearly every high risk zone has an associated large historic earthquake and continuing microseismicity. Seattle's 1700 M9 is just outside of historic memory. Eastern Tennesse has not had a quake.

    3) Few seismic building laws in Eastern US, despite sizeable risk.

    1. Re:not new by nightsky30 · · Score: 1

      3) Few seismic building laws in Eastern US, despite sizeable risk.

      In the historic parts of Charleston you can see where they incorporated "earthquake bolts". I'm not sure how much they help. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

  19. Baby, it's cold outside. by Jannie+Ogg · · Score: 1

    At long last there is a good reason to live in Minnesota.

  20. Re:God dammit by charlesj68 · · Score: 1