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40% Of People On Terror Watch List Have No Terrorist Ties
Advocatus Diaboli (1627651) writes with the chilling, but not really surprising, news that the U.S. government is aware that many names in its terrorist suspect database are not linked to terrorism in any way. From the article: Nearly half of the people on the U.S. government's widely shared database of terrorist suspects are not connected to any known terrorist group, according to classified government documents obtained by The Intercept. Of the 680,000 people caught up in the government's Terrorist Screening Database — a watchlist of "known or suspected terrorists" that is shared with local law enforcement agencies, private contractors, and foreign governments — more than 40 percent are described by the government as having "no recognized terrorist group affiliation." That category — 280,000 people — dwarfs the number of watchlisted people suspected of ties to al Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah combined.
Then it means that 60% from this list have terrorist ties ? Good result.
No. No it's not. Not for any meaning of "good result".
No, I suspect it's much lower.
They know that 40% have nothing to do with terrorism, and one suspects it's much higher than that.
Basically they're taking a scatter-shot approach, and don't need to justify it, and don't give a damn that they're impacting people's lives with bad information.
These guys would be just as happy to go with the "everyone is a terrorist until proven otherwise model", where the proven otherwise occurs when you're dead.
It makes it so much easier to be fascists when you don't need to justify your lists of people to watch out for.
They've already more or less admitted that they have absolutely no control with these lists, and that any agency, for any reason, without any actual evidence can add someone to the watch lists.
This allows them to be both a malicious cancer and incompetent morons without recourse.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
If there are 280,000 people on the watch list that are there despite having no recognized ties to any terrorist groups.. why are they on the list at all?
It means 60% on that list are suspected of having terrorist ties. It does not mean they really do have terrorist ties, and it does not mean the suspicion is reasonable. In other words, that 60% would need to be further categorised before it becomes a meaningful statistic.
The 40% on the other hand is already a meaningful statistic.
Meaningful enough for one to conclude that if the real numbers were out there, they'd be doing about as well as random chance (hey, they have a 50/50 chance of being right), and quite probably are doing FAR worse.
If they're admitting that 40% don't have any ties, you can probably assume that the number of people who don't belong on the list is much higher.
This is what happens when you have secret lists, and no evidentiary threshold to apply to put people on it.
Overall, I'm going to conclude these agencies are at least 40% incompetent.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
I do not think it is supposed to be particularly easy to join hamas, particularly for an American. You do not just look up "Terrorist" in the yellow pages and call 1-800-alQ-aeda.
The ability to join a known terrorist organization is limited to a few people based on genes, friendships, and geography.
The ability to hate the government and to build bombs is universal.
Ergo, most terrorists will most likely not have any affiliation is known terrorist organizations.
Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
Terrorism doesn't have to be organized. Just look at Breivik!
Most of us (on /. anyway) realized right after 2001 that the "We're trying to catch terrorists!" excuse would be used to steamroll over the rights and protections of pretty much EVERYONE. The T E R R O R I S T boogeyman has become a goddamned golden license to do anything for the CIA, NSA, FBI, ATF, etc.--all the way down to the local yokel sheriff who uses his new toys and tools to spy on his wife.
It was never about terrorism. It was about exploiting terrorism to create the police state they always wanted.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
Realistically, how many people share the same name as a terrorist? I had a friend by the name of Chris Johnson who had been flagged. If one Chris Johnson is a bad guy...all the rest are not, and I bet that's a lot of Johnsons. What made it funny was that he had a top secret clearance but still got flagged at airports.
In which mathematical system is 40>60?
It does. The list arbitrarily denies the right to free travel and movement among the various states for no reason whatsoever, almost 300,000 people in total. It draws into question the accuracy of the "60%"--that is, if nearly 300,000 people are arbitrarily on the list for no discernible link to terrorism, how many of the "60%" that they claim have ties to terrorism, actually do?
The incompetence of the 40% casts doubt on the claim of "60%" accuracy. I.e. "Of the 60% who do allegedly have terrorist ties, against how many of them is the evidence either completely non-existent or just because some arbitrary bureaucrat somewhere says so?"
That's what people are concerned about. An admitted 40% error rate is appalling, and it leads to wonder "If that's what they're admitting to their superiors, how much worse is the problem, actually?"
Who did what now?
It doesn't, but you need to go a little deeper into the article:
So this is the blurb in the summary:
And this is deeper in the article:
So, there are 50K more people who are known to NOT have terrorist ties than all of those combined, and several times more than any single category.
Basically the list is useless, because they have more known non-terror linked subjects than they have people with actual links to terrorism.
I'm betting that list is anti-war protesters, people who disagree with the government, or who have done any number of innocent things which you have a right to do.
In other words, pretty much anybody they can find.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
Let's face it.... a group of 20 people could do major damage to the U.S. If I had cells of 5 people in a few states.... I could cause wide spread chaos and fear. If they were watching 100 people, I'd think the list was excellent. If they were watching 500 people, I'd think the list was almost prudent. That they are watching 680,000 people? That list is USELESS. Needle in a haystack useless.
If there ARE plots to hurt Americans, we need much better, much TIGHTER scrutiny of specific individuals... A Terrorist Watch List, to be effective, should have the top 50 suspects, and their closest associates. 500 people at the most.
That list didn't catch the Boston Bomber..... even though Russia TOLD US he might be a problem. Needle in a haystack.... Forget the 40%. The sheer number of people on that list makes it useless. Lets face it, there are probably a few hundred people out of 300 million that really need watching.
I honestly doubt there are more than a handfull of people inside the US that have: actual terrorist desires, actual terrorist connections, an actual plan to hurt people, and enough fanaticism to overcome the fear of Gitmo or Death. There might be more with one or two of these, but look around you... if we're in so much danger, where's the actual DANGER? Since Sept. 11th, we've had ONE guy, the boston bomber... ok, and a bunch of right wing soverign citizen types.
Actually, I'm much more afraid of a crazy american trying to topple the government (all by himself, of course) than an actual terrorist.
No terrorist will fly under a name he used before, most certainly not his birth name.
Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
Sure, and there are objective criteria involved in those, and objective results.
This list boils down to some police officer, informant, agent, intercept, or disgruntled asshole said "I think he's a terrorist, and I have nothing to support that".
It then goes into the ever growing list of people whose lives will be fucked with for no good reason, and to justify these spy agencies and their lists full of terrible data.
You're damned right this has more serious consequences, which means it should also require some credible evidence, instead of any law enforcement officer anywhere being encouraged to add people to the list "just in case".
I see this list as nothing more than the scope creep of fascism, and will be defended by the fascists as a necessary tool. Accurate information is a necessary too. Garbage information is just a recipe for abuse.
Right now, either through laziness, incompetence, or spite, a huge amount of people can add pretty much anybody to this list. In fact, they're encouraged to.
And it sounds like there are no checks and balances, and no accountability.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
I would have expected that well over 90% of people on the terror list have nothing to do with terrorism. So, this number is actually quite low, and if true, means that (1) the government is successful in identifying terrorists, and (2) there are really LOTS of terrorists on the planet, which is really worrying.
I strongly suspect that 40% are confirmed false positives. Then there is a large group that they don't know yet, but who are just innocent and mostly harmless.
After the Boston Marathon Bombing, the tea party were the first people blamed. The shooter of the judge and congresswomen in Arizona was also blamed on conservatives (even though it turned out the guy was a liberal.)
Well we know what to get them for Christmas then
Heres a marketing opportunity, ties with the logos of the FSF, GreenPeace PETA, Sierra Club, Pirate Bay, or even Charles Schwab (they do IRA's)
I hate to say it, and I know this will go against the common feeling here, but I think TFS misses the point. Misses by some distance, actually.
Timothy McVeigh wasn't, to my knowledge, associated with any recognized terrorists organizations. That doesn't mean he shouldn't have been on a list of people the FBI is concerned about. Whether or not they are known to be a member of a known terrorist group isn't the important question. (Note also the difference between "we don't know which group they are affiliated with" vs "we know they aren't communicating with any group"). If someone is acting like a terrorist, such as buying explosives on the black market, the government should probably make a note of that fact, regardless of what groups they are associated with or not associated with.
The information in the report that is more concerning to me is that they have added 430,000 names to the "terrorist-related" database in the last four years. That sounds like far too many people. I was surprised the report said they REMOVED 50,000 names in those same four years. That's good news. I'm also concerned about the EFFECTS of being in this database. If there were that many people on the no-fly list, that would be troubling, but I don't think that's the case. If a listed person flies to the middle east and back and that triggers a notification to authorities so they can include that information in their larger understanding of what's going on, that's less troubling.
We should be asking "how is this list used?" and "what ARE the criteria to be put on this list?"
Those, I think, are more important questions than "how many act alone or in small groups, as opposed to recognized organizations?"
I know, that sounds like defining "is" or "sex with that woman" but...
TFA indicates that they have no "recognized terrorist group affiliation ties". So does that parse to
(1) American citizens who have no ties to a terrorist group
(2) no known ties to a terrorist group, but the NSA could have metadata that shows contact with one or multiple known members of those groups,
(3) ties to groups which we suspect may have terrorist motives/wings/connections but are not currently recognized as terrorist groups
(4) ties to or current or prior foreign citizenship from state which sponsor or harbor terror groups
Option (1) is what the article would suggest. Here's a similarly ambiguous statement, which is 100% truthful: "Of the 280,000 people on the list who have no recognized terrorist group affiliation ties, none are identified in the article as being Americans citizens." Of course, the infographic indicates that, of the 660,000 people on the watchlist, 3300 are American citizens (0.5%), but not that any of those 3300 are in the unaffiliated group. Which is why I suggest items (3) and (4), which (I'm guessing) make up the vast majority of those in the 40%.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
Given that 99% of us are terrorists, I would say the terrorists have lost.
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
My wife is probably on that list. She ordered two small pressure cookers via Amazon recently one for her and one for our daughter. But it was TWO. Automated add to terror list.
You should see that this is a good thing overall. The quicker this list can be proven worthless in the eyes of everyone, the faster it will become a heated target within politics, ripe for attack. It's own absurdity will remove it's power to abuse.
I somehow doubt that. In my experience absurdity is no obstacle for a policy; especially one driven by fear. As flawed at it is, if we get rid of the list terrorists will start downing planes left and right. You wouldn't want that, would you? Would you?!
"What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
They've already more or less admitted that they have absolutely no control with these lists, and that any agency, for any reason, without any actual evidence can add someone to the watch lists.
Let's think this through for a minute... So you would rather that the list be made up of persons with known terrorism group allegiances, and that any and all supporting information also be cataloged in the same place so that the list is audit-ready to outline exactly who is a terrorist, why, and how we know that? Yeah fucking right. The list itself would be a roadmap for how the US finds and tracks terrorists. You're just going to have to unwad your panties on this one, you don't get to decide who the defense department targets since you are completely unqualified to do so and frankly, don't know shit about mitigating the risk of terrorism.
Apparently, the people in charge are also completely unqualified. By your logic, we should simply sit back until they've fingered everyone as a potential terrorist. Then there won't be anyone left to complain.
They've already more or less admitted that they have absolutely no control with these lists, and that any agency, for any reason, without any actual evidence can add someone to the watch lists.
Let's think this through for a minute... So you would rather that the list be made up of persons with known terrorism group allegiances, and that any and all supporting information also be cataloged in the same place so that the list is audit-ready to outline exactly who is a terrorist, why, and how we know that? Yeah fucking right. The list itself would be a roadmap for how the US finds and tracks terrorists. You're just going to have to unwad your panties on this one, you don't get to decide who the defense department targets since you are completely unqualified to do so and frankly, don't know shit about mitigating the risk of terrorism.
We don't need a list at all. We didn't need one before 9/11/2001 and we don't need one now. The CIA and whomever else were tracking the hijackers before they attacked. They just failed to stop them for whatever reason. Two of them were living with an FBI informant for crying out loud. We didn't need a list to know they were with Al Qaeda and where they lived in the country.
We don't need a list. And no speech about how we need Col. Jessup up on that wall will convince me otherwise.
"What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
Posting on Slashdot? Watchlist.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
Hamas kill innocent people (random rockets on Israel) -> all Palestinians are terrorists.
US Government kill innocent people (signature strikes with drones) -> all Americans are terrorists.
Oh yes, I see the logic. No flaw at all. (/sarcasm)
According to NSA's current spying policy, it's pretty clear that they see that world has two kinds of people in it. Those who have been found to be terrorists, and those who haven't been found to be terrorists yet.
One of the most revolutionary aspects of Western sense of justice has been presumption of innocence. Throughout the history, presumption of guilt was far more common in justice systems everywhere. That's why the most common way to question suspects was torture.
This is simply the security and justice apparatus degrading into it's more natural state due to lack of stringent oversight.
I'm pretty sure they watch slashdot. I posted about how 2nd amendments nutters are full of shit because they act like it's their wet dream to stop government tyranny with their guns, but haven't done a damn thing once it was revealed the government completely ignores the 4th amendment. Three days later some AC posts this stupid fishing attempt looking for other people to attack the NSA with him. Right. That's a completely legitimate inquiry AC. Did they teach you that one in narc school?
Anyway, welcome to the list.
We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
I can't be bothered to read the article but the blurb above just say that 40% have no known connection with terrorist groups - not that they aren't potential terrorists.
Timothy McVeigh didn't have connections with terrorist groups - but he was a terrorist.
Ted Kaczyski was yet another terrorist without terrorist connections.
"Are you a terrorist?"
"Me? NO!"
"That's exactly what a terrorist would say..."
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
1% of 680,000 is still 6,800. You really think even that many citizens could be proved to be terrorists?!
I suspect even 1% is at least an order of magnitude too high (assuming the number of bona-fide terrorists on the list is non-zero, which it might not be).
"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
Somewhere somehow someone slowly turned travel to be a privilege, which the Executive can withdraw at a whim. It ought to be explicitly declared a right, which only the Judiciary can suspend — after a trial.
And it is not just airtravel — under Obama, Bush-created TSA are expanding their "jurisdiction" over all other mass transit, nor can you drive a personal car without the government's permission (driver's license). And having somebody else drive you without a government's permission is troublesome too.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
http://www.infowars.com/will-o...
http://www.prisonplanet.com/ob...
The media used the term "anti-gov" types, patriots, and extreme right wingers. I didn't see any reference to neo-nazis. The media have gone out of it's way to link those terms with the tea party and you damn well that was the implication.
In any case, it turned out the right-wing "extremest" had nothing to do with the attack.
Also, show me the evidence of all the right wing nutjobs bombings and shootings and I can show you that the progressive nutjobs are just as bad
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/201...
http://www.theblaze.com/storie...
http://www.reuters.com/article...
Additionally, review the political beliefs of the person behind the Washington Navy Yard shooting and
Ted Kaczynski
You're misunderstand the point. This is simple logic.
A terrorist can have an affiliation with a group, or act independently.
So, a person can be in three states:
A: not a terrorist,
B: a terrorist without group affiliation
C: a terrorist with an affiliation.
The list contains 60% of the people in group C. 40% are either A or B. All of the ones that are B still fit the criteria for the watch list, so those are valid. There isn't enough info to tell us if the distribution is 60% C, 40% B, and 0% A (which would be perfect), or if there is some other mixture where people in group A are listed but shouldn't be, so we don't know how inaccurate the watch list is.
Grammer Nazis - I mod you "troll" unless you actually add something on-topic. Yes, I know I have mispellings in my sig.
You're preaching to the converted on the shitty implementation of this list. I don't support or defend it.
I just don't like people drawing a conclusion from a statement that isn't consistent with it.
Grammer Nazis - I mod you "troll" unless you actually add something on-topic. Yes, I know I have mispellings in my sig.
I believe the official line from the government is:
If you see something, say something
this could be fun go through the phone book a give anonymous tips of random people for common innocuous things that the govenment considerer possible warning signs and see how big we can inflate the list until no one is allowed to fly in the US.
---Saying gnome 3 is better than windows 8 not so much a compliment as it is damning with light praise.