Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

Taco Cowboy sends this report from Vox: One of the big mysteries in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is where the virus came from in the first place — and whether it's changed in any significant ways. ... In a new paper in Science (abstract), researchers reveal that they have sequenced the genomes of Ebola from 78 patients in Sierra Leone who contracted the disease in May and June. Those sequences revealed some 300 mutations specific to this outbreak. Among their findings, the researchers discovered that the current viral strains come from a related strain that left Central Africa within the past ten years. ... Using genetic sequences from current and previous outbreaks, the researchers mapped out a family tree that puts a common ancestor of the recent West African outbreak some place in Central Africa roughly around 2004. This contradicts an earlier hypothesis that the virus had been hanging around West Africa for much longer than that. Researchers are also planning to study the mutations to see if any of them are affecting Ebola's recent behavior. For example, this outbreak has had a higher transmission rate and lower death rate than others, and researchers are curious if any of these mutations are related to that. ... The scientific paper on Ebola is also a sad reminder of the toll that the virus has taken on those working on the front lines. Five of the authors died of Ebola before it was published.

Comments

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[wolrahnaes]

If you wait long enough the mortality rate goes to 100%.

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[sribe]

Trying to figure out the mortality rate for a virus that's still making it's rounds seems premature.

Especially when the reaction of many who are exposed is to run, and hide from medical treatment...

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[TerraFrost]

Someone who dies in ten years after an Ebola infection is probably going to be dying of something other than Ebola (unless they got infected again I guess).

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[Anonymous Coward]

If this epidemic gets really bad, the social and economic consequences can kill a lot of people who don't even get the disease.

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[Roceh]

It could be the mortality rate for Ebola has been overestimated in any case, mild cases may not be recorded at all - there is something of a stigma with Ebola. The most recent case with the Nigerian diplomat who skipped quarantine and holed up in a hotel and then recovered after a few days indicates there are some who get mild symptoms (and are still infectious however - see Port Harcourt outbreak).

Take a look at this chart

[Anonymous Coward]

There's a chart accompanying the original FA which may help you

http://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbo...

Dangerous virus

[Eravnrekaree]

The fact that so many experts on the disease die of it is a testament to its extreme contagiousness, and why we really should be scared of this thing. Of all people, experts of the disease take precautions to avoid catching it themselves, when they do, its not a good sign. It only makes sense to put into place travel bans from infected countries. It is important when dealing with this diseases to stop the spread by banning travel from the hot zone. There also needs to be public funding for a vaccine.

Re:Dangerous virus

[Nemyst]

Ebola is actually not that contagious. Its usually high mortality rate makes it slow to propagate, since it tends to kill the host before they can spread it much. You also need extended contact with infected people to be susceptible to transmission (hence why the researchers were amongst the most likely to get it, protection or not, and the lack of treatment or prevention mechanism meant that there was little to do for them once they had it).

An Ebola outbreak in Europe or North America would do little damage as it would be contained swiftly. Unless ZMapp is mass produced before then, the infected would probably be quarantined and left there, but either way you could control it and even in a major population center the damage would be relatively low. An influenza epidemic like the Spanish flu would be far more devastating, despite the fact flu is a much more common (and less "scary") disease.

Re:Dangerous virus

[ultranova]

Of all people, experts of the disease take precautions to avoid catching it themselves, when they do, its not a good sign.

Maybe. Then again, where I work it's the new guys who follow safety guidelines religiously, while those who have been there for a while can't be bothered because, after all, nothing's happened this far so it must be safe.

Experts are humans, and humans are notoriously bad at keeping their guard up with familiar things.

Re:Dangerous virus

[denzacar]

despite the fact flu is a much more common (and less "scary") disease.

Flu is killing 200.000 to 500.000 people globally every year.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre...

Influenza occurs globally with an annual attack rate estimated at 5% - 10% in adults and 20% - 30% in children.
Illnesses can result in hospitalization and death mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill).
Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths.

It's just not that sexy to make a movie about it with Morgan Freeman, Dustin Hoffman and a monkey.
Plus people ignorant of distinction between common cold and influenza don't perceive it as a threat.
Which is a further reason why there is no movie with a monkey about it.

Re:Dangerous virus

[symbolset]

Five of the authors of this paper died of Ebola, including one who did not work with any patients or samples directly.

Re:Dangerous virus

[Electricity Likes Me]

despite the fact flu is a much more common (and less "scary") disease.

Flu is killing 200.000 to 500.000 people globally every year.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre...

Dying the flu generally requires complicating conditions. Most people survive it just fine. Ebola is scary because most people don't survive it.

Re:Dangerous virus

[denzacar]

Dying the flu generally requires complicating conditions. Most people survive it just fine. Ebola is scary because most people don't survive it.

Following that logic, ebola is not scary simply because most people don't ever catch it.

Or are you arguing that since it's not your ass, you not being elderly, pregnant or a small child - fuck those weaklings dying in hundreds of thousands each year from a disease "Most people survive it just fine".

And again... Most people DO NOT GET THE FLU each year but simple common cold.
"3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths" comes to 8-10% fatalities.
That's about 3 kids dead in a class of 30 children. Every year.
But it's spread out across the globe and it happens mostly in "third world" countries so - fuck those weaklings.

Back in winter of '96 I had a case of actual flu.
As a teenager, wasn't really in an "at risk group", other than maybe having my immunity lowered.
Unfortunately, my doctor wasn't in that day and I was sent home (by a rather young doctor, rather fresh from the med school) with a prescription for cough syrup instead of a penicillin shot.

That night I had a fever of +40C, and ended up barely breathing by the morning.
Had to sit in a semi-reclined position to be able to breathe as it was difficult for me to do that while sitting or lying down.
Had to lean on my mother's arm to be able to walk to the doctor's office in the morning, about 200-300 meters downhill (mostly) from where I live.

There it turned out that I practically had a heart attack - an inflammation of the myocardium.
Ended up staying over at the hospital for couple of weeks and having tests and booster shots for next half a year - though I was "fixed" after couple of shots of penicillin, getting out of the bed and walking to the bathroom by myself that very night with no difficulty at all.
By tomorrow I felt ready to go home. Still had to stay though.

Funny thing is, during all my stay at the hospital doctors never figured out what was wrong with me. They were looking for congenital heart conditions, trichinosis... only much later as I kept being fine did they take a look back at the original symptoms and figured out that it was all a viral inflammation of the heart muscle.

THAT'S influenza!
"Most people" catch a cold and call that "the flu".

Re: Dangerous virus

[rhodium_mir]

Penicillin is not an effective treatment for Influenza.

Re: Dangerous virus

[HuguesT]

It could be for complications. Influenza causes inflammation, which itself creates a happy medium for bacteria in the lungs. It is standard practice to give antibiotics in severe cases of influenza. This does not help against the virus but helps lowering the risk of reinfections. See there.

Re: Dangerous virus

[denzacar]

It was effective against a bacterial inflammation of the heart muscle, for which influenza "opened the door".
Like I said, they never figured out what exactly was the cause, they just settled for viral once they ran out of congenital and parasitic causes.

Penicillin (probably a streptomycin combo) was administered "just in case".
Same as the glucose I was receiving intravenously for several days more, despite being quite able to eat and digest solid food - which I did as I was allowed to.

Re:Dangerous virus

[denzacar]

Same reason they later kept me on glucose for several days while allowing me to eat solid food - just in case and cause it fit the symptoms of an infection.
In this case, it took out the bacterial infection of the heart muscle for which the influenza opened up the doors.
Cough syrup on the other hand did diddly squat.

Re:Origin?

[pjt33]

Or get bitten by. The hypothesised reservoir is fruit bats, but other primates can be infected by filoviruses, and pigs have also been found to carry them asymptomatically. Source: the WHO fact sheet on Ebola virus disease.

Re:You're assuming....

[symbolset]

Some medical workers are in fact spreading the disease.

Re:has ebola been weaponized?

[HuguesT]

It is unlikely Ebola has been weaponized. It makes sense to use a virus as a weapon if the attacker has some kind of effective defence against it, otherwise the disease may backfire. Right now Ebola is too dangerous for this.

Re:You're assuming....

[codeButcher]

despite recieving constant aid and assistance, have been unable to develop any sort of technical economy.

Perhaps that should read: "because receiving constant aid and assistance, have been unable to develop any sort of technical economy."

Re:You're assuming....

[F34nor]

Even if you kill all the below average people 50% of the remain people will be below average and you will be in both groups.