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China's Island Factory
An anonymous reader writes: The BBC has a lengthy investigative report about China's efforts to create and expand artificial islands in the South China Sea. They've been going to coral reefs and atolls, dredging the bottom for material, and dumping it on top of the reef to create new land. On at least one of the new islands, China will build an air base large enough for fighter jets to use. This highlights one of China's main reasons for constructing these islands: sovereignty and strategic control of the surrounding area. "The U.S. government does not acknowledge China's claim, and the U.S. Pacific fleet continues to sail regularly through the South China Sea. But the Chinese navy is beginning to grow more assertive. In December 2013 China sailed its brand new aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, into the South China Sea for the first time. Shadowing it, at about 30 nautical miles, came the U.S. Navy cruiser USS Cowpens. A Chinese amphibious assault ship approached and ordered it to leave the area. The commander of the Cowpens refused, saying he was sailing in 'international waters.'"
Liaoning is not brand new - it's a refurb of an old Soviet carrier.
If it weren't for the U.S. having multiple aircraft carriers, the modern-day world might be divided into two different super-powers...Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany.
An 11 carrier Navy fleet is not sustainable.
Assumptions to test this hypothesis:
1) Countries other than the US (with carriers) are making rational decisions on how many carriers to buy
2) The total number of carriers a country can support is based on it's GDP
3) Data from Wikipedia about Carriers and GDP is accurate
So, based on that metric it takes $2.28 Trillion of GDP to rationally support one aircraft carrier and the US could support 7 of them.
Problems with this logic:
1) Not all countries have an equal need for aircraft carriers, it depends on the importance of sea lanes and force projection
2) Most countries listed are US allies who are underspending on their military establishment since they know the US will be there to protect them
3) China is an outlier since they have $8.3 trillion in GDP and only one carrier, if they are removed suddenly the data shows it only takes $1.4 Trillion of GDP and the US could support 11 carriers
Conclusion:
Given the US need for open sea lanes in order to maintain trade, a political desire for forward force projection in order to avoid conflict in the continental US and the gigantic size of the US economy it's likely that the current number of US carriers is actually appropriate.
Following those same lines I predict China will build five more carriers amidst rising tensions in the Pacific.
Why does one deed excuse the other? It's not like anyone complaining about the chinese annexation of the Spratley's was alive to condone the annexation of Hawai'i by the US.
Both were and are bullshit. Extending national boundaries through force is something we were supposed to leave behind after WW2. Apparently, some people think that the lessons from WW2 don't apply to them.
Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
US warships really shouldn't be anywhere near China
They're not. The Spratly islands (map here) are hundreds of miles from China. They're much closer to the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Should we avoid sailing near any of those countries in case China's next claim is that those countries are all historically part of China?
Russia and China float boats in international waters off our coast all the time. China just doesn't have much in the way of a navy capable of stationing them there. Russia, in particular, is known to cruise their subs all over and rumor has it they've shadowed US military ships going in and out of ports. International waters are international and open to use by all. This is not the first and certainly won't be the last time superpowers poke at each other from international borders while saying "I'm not touching you!"
In the event of an extended war, the US is presumed to need to build aircraft carriers. The best way to maintain institutional knowledge of how to build carriers is to build them, and the minimum construction pace that retains this knowledge is about one carrier every five years. Since the non-combat lifespan of a nuclear carrier is about 50 years, this gives the US a fleet of ten to eleven carriers.
Since the islands are built within the Philippines exclusive economic zone the islands are automatically illegal under international law.
China doesn't recognize the territorial claims in the area of the other countries and is trying to push their version of who owns the area
I'm interested in this because I am a China "expert". I had Top Secret clearance with a US ally and have negotiated with the Chinese government. I have already modded so am now posting anon.
It is likely that aircraft carriers are outdated technology. They are vulnerable to sinking by many means. A possible deterrent for incoming ballistics is a "star wars" type technology that the US claims it has but won't demonstrate. So, bluff. The argument that the Chinese wouldn't spend money on carriers if they were old tech is also facile. Boys with toys and the military industrial complex (wherever it is) will max out on their weapons budget and still cry for more. They often spend it on crap to line the pockets of their mates; or spend it on a wing and a prayer that it will perform as designed.
What we are seeing now is brinkmanship on both sides. This could end badly.
We/Google shouldn't be calling it the South China Sea.
Vietnam call it the Eastern Sea, lets face it, more of the sea is closer to them.
Philippines call it the West Philippine Sea
Following those same lines I predict China will build five more carriers amidst rising tensions in the Pacific
I was from China, and have been keeping a very close eye on what's happening in China. Please allow me to chime in
China is not America
Unlike America China does not have any ambition of global control, nor any need to become the world's policeman
China's immediate concern is the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea - open lanes to the Pacific and the Indian oceans
China will do everything it can to ensure that it gets a free passage way in both the abovementioned seas --- and China knows America/Japan are the two entities which will throw the monkey wrench into the clockwork whenever they got the chance
The floating military base concept is a concept started by ambitious countries which want global domination, like Japan, America, Great Britain, and since China does not share such ambition, China actually does not need aircraft carriers
And the fact that China has devoted a lot of research into anti-aircraft carrier weapons, like their scramjet powered missiles tells us that the "Liaoning" is but an experiment
Although China does not need any aircraft carrier it does need to understand how to operate one, and it does need its own military (Navy/Air Force) to be able to fly off/land on aircraft carriers, just in case
And another reason for having the Liaoning is psychological --- like everything else in China, everything is scripted according to the Art of War
China's intention on Aircraft Carriers is to force America into building more, and with more carrier groups, the massive expenditure will only bankrupt America faster
This "aircraft carrier game" is not the first game China plays with USA
When USA came out with its "stealth fighters" in the 1980's China had none, but China somehow gave the impression to the world that they are making their moves in that area (which include having a few photos of "made in China stealth bomber" online) and that essentially forced America to waste even more of its precious resources into obtaining even more advanced versions of stealth bombers/fighters to the tune of hundreds of billions (the hundreds of billions which could, theoretically, be used to improve the falling education system inside America, but I digress)
China knows too well that if WW3 is going to come it will a total wipe out - that is why if you guys pay attention to what China is doing, the aircraft carrier / stealth aircraft things are nothing but a big bluff crafted to lure the enemies into wasting their own resources into things that will turn out to be totally worthless
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !