US Scientists Predict Long Battle Against Ebola

An anonymous reader writes: Despite recent advances in medicine to treat Ebola, epidemiologists are not hopeful that the outbreak in west Africa will be contained any time soon. Revised models for the disease's spread expect the outbreak to last 12 to 18 months longer, likely infecting hundreds of thousands of people. "While previous outbreaks have been largely confined to rural areas, the current epidemic, the largest ever, has reached densely populated, impoverished cities — including Monrovia, the capital of Liberia — gravely complicating efforts to control the spread of the disease. ... What worries public health officials most is that the epidemic has begun to grow exponentially in Liberia. In the most recent week reported, Liberia had nearly 400 new cases, almost double the number reported the week before. Another grave concern, the W.H.O. said, is 'evidence of substantial underreporting of cases and deaths.' The organization reported on Friday that the number of Ebola cases as of Sept. 7 was 4,366, including 2,218 deaths." Scientists are urging greater public health efforts to slow the exponential trajectory of the disease and bring it back under control.

Comments

Re:+-2000 deaths?

[Noah Haders]

Yeah except last month it was 1000 deaths and the month before that 500 deaths and the month before that 250 deaths.

Good episode of Frontline

[Enry]

For those of you in the US, the PBS show Frontline had part of an episode dedicated to what's going on. While it is very hard to get, cultural problems there make it really easy (mourners touch the dead). People in remote villages are scared to tell doctors that they have symptoms since they'll be whisked off to the clinic, never to be seen again, just like almost everyone else that went to the clinic. In the larger cities, some nitwits are spreading the rumor that Ebola doesn't exist and the government is just trying to steal blood from the patients. So bands of people think that patents bleeding from every orifice needs to be rescued(!).

Re:+-2000 deaths?

[rmdingler]

Yes. Exponential doubling of mortality is a concern, especially since the virus has reached urban areas in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea.

For any who are tempted by the comforting thought that this remains an African Problem, remember that the longer the virus replicates inside a host species, the more chances there are for a favorable mutation to take hold.

Favorable for the virus.