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CDC: Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million In 4 Months
mdsolar sends this report from the NY Times:
Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling. In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported. ... In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be 'almost ended' by Jan. 20, the report said.
In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20
ok, so considering that Sep 30 is one week away, I think it's unlikely that the disease will spread four-fold in that tiem.
I just read the Excel model that you can download as part of the article:
- It uses the parameters of previous Ebola outbreaks as a base.
These outbreaks happened in remote and sparsely populated regions. In contrast, the outbreak in Monrovia has hit slum like neighborhoods. This is a completely different base.
- The Excel model uses a "flat" model of population that doesn't take into account geographical distribution.
Infectiousness in slums will be a lot higher than in previous outbreaks because of the density of population.
- The model talks about keeping 70% of the infected population at home or in hospitals in order to reduce the infection rate. This way, the epidemic will slowly decrease.
However, there is widespread fear of hospitalization and the mortality rate of Ebola (80%) basically means that people will distrust any doctors, hospital etc. So I can't see how this should happen.
- In the history of Ebola there was no outbreak of this size.
In the past there were plenty (relatively) of workers per case. But now patients will outnumber the helpers.
Summary: I can't see why the exponential development could be slowed down as indicated in the model...
Yeah, the CDC says it's possible, and I trust their judgement more than my own.
But, in spite of that, I have a question: How can something with a 90% fatality rate really become endemic? It'd imply a near complete depopulation of the affected areas.
Epidemic makes sense. People hide out, move around, spread the disease, huge, rapid expansion into new populations occurs. I don't know how they'd model a endemic ebola.
Because it doesn't just kill you in a day. It takes a while. Symptoms don't appear from 2-21 days; once the symptoms appear you're contagious. Granted that's a wide margin of error.
In the meantime, you have people that try to "get away" because they either don't realize they're already infected or are simply in denial. Said person just has to cross a certain threshold and now it's in a whole other region. You can get pretty far in 21 days, and depending on our knowledge of the area and motivation, it's "possible" to get somewhere else. After all, you might have weeks until you start to show.
That's not counting the doctors / nurses / guards / etc. that can accidentally get exposed and unknowingly pass it on.
What "regular hospital"? Part of the problem is that there is NO infrastructure. Zmap is, unfortunately, hit or miss. Even despite the partial success of Zmap there isn't enough production of it since it was experimental at the beginning & even if there were enough and the distribution was there the patients would still have to rely on western doctors to get treatment.
Touching the dead can give you Ebola? That seems like an extremely easy to transmit disease. I'm surprised a worldwide Ebola apocalypse hasn't occurred already.
Touching people who died from Ebola can give you Ebola, yes. It's an infectious disease that spreads via bodily fluids and causes bleeding. Since someone who died from it probably bled quite a lot, that means they're essentially covered in infected and infectious blood.
Additionally there is a lack of trust in western medical practices.
That's not the only problem.
For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
You know, I often wondered if cultural norms such as bowing (not shaking hands) and ritual burning of the dead are in part due to some nasty contagion that wiped out previous civilization.
Life is not for the lazy.