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Could We Abort a Manned Mission To Mars?

StartsWithABang writes: The next great leap in human spaceflight is a manned mission to a world within our Solar System: most likely Mars. But if something went wrong along the journey — at launch, close to Earth, or en route — whether biological or mechanical, would there be any way to return to Earth? This article is a fun (and sobering) look at what the limits of physics and technology allow at present. If you're interested in a hard sci-fi, near-future look at how a catastrophic Mars mission might go, you should read an excellent novel called The Martian by Andy Weir.

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  1. Second the recommendation by jenningsthecat · · Score: 5, Interesting

    "The Martian" by Andy Weir is one of the best SF books I've read, and I highly recommend it. Even if you're not into SF, if you're a member here, there's a good chance you'll like it.

    --
    'The Economy' is a giant Ponzi scheme whose most pitiable suckers are the youngest among us and the yet-unborn.
    1. Re:Second the recommendation by Noxal · · Score: 2

      Seconded. Fantastic book

    2. Re:Second the recommendation by jenningsthecat · · Score: 4, Interesting

      ...the main character is depicted almost as lacking emotions...

      That may be why I liked it. I've read and enjoyed a lot of books with more fully realized characters and more nuanced plots; it was refreshing to read a stripped-down actioner that had a lot of geeky ingenuity and kept me reading waaay past bedtime. Plus, as far as I could tell it got the science and tech mostly right.

      --
      'The Economy' is a giant Ponzi scheme whose most pitiable suckers are the youngest among us and the yet-unborn.
    3. Re:Second the recommendation by CohibaVancouver · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's OK as proper SF, but the main character is depicted almost as lacking emotions.

      He's not lacking emotions. It's just that when something bad happens he curses and then sits about working the problem.

      At one point Venkat comments on it by explaining that he's a NASA Mars Astronaut - One of the best in the world at coping with difficult situations.

      "He's stuck out there. He thinks he's totally alone and that we all gave up on him. What kind of effect does that have on a man's psychology?" He turned back to Venkat. "I wonder what he's thinking right now?"

      LOG ENTRY: SOL 61 How come Aquaman can control whales? They're mammals! Makes no sense."

    4. Re:Second the recommendation by Thumper_SVX · · Score: 2

      God, I hope not. After the well-intentioned trainwreck that was Prometheus I really don't want to see The Martian by Ridley Scott. Seriously, the man has no sense of humour, which is key to why that book was so damned good, and so accessible to the non-SF person.

      For my part I am not sure who I'd want to direct it... but I'd really want to see Ryan Reynolds in the lead. He was exactly who I imagined through the entire book :)

  2. Should we? by spiritplumber · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Full speed ahead, and damn the torpedoes!

    Yes, the Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria could've gone back home - so could the Mayflower (yeah, yeah, I know, I'm pasty white, etc.)

    It's a lot harder to do that with a spacecraft if you know you need the Oberth effect of your destination to make it home.

    So? A poll was done a while ago indicating that a lot of qualified people would go if they had 1 chance in 2 of surviving.

    The only safe ship is the one that never leaves harbor...

    --
    Liberty - Security - Laziness - Pick any two.
    1. Re:Should we? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Those ships were going to places that were naturally habitable and didn't need to bring every molecule of air, water and food along with them. The ocean provided natural propulsion and food too. Space has none of these things, and Mars is an utterly dead rusty ball of rock.
      I will never understand the quasi-religious fervor some people have about space.
      http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the...

    2. Re:Should we? by Sarten-X · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I will never understand the quasi-religious fervor some people have about space.

      It's not about space. It's about not-Earth.

      For most practical purposes, Earth has no more undiscovered continents, no more unexplored territory, and no more absolute wilderness. Sure, there's some areas that are generally undisturbed, but we know just about all there is to know about them. There are no more mysteries lying just beyond the horizon. There is only human civilization. There are cell phones, satellites, and rescue teams standing ready. Human exploration is at a standstill.

      There are some places left to go to fill in the gaps in our knowledge. We can cut deeper into the jungles, and dive deeper into the oceans, but we still know what we don't know.

      The next horizon for humanity's exploration is space. That's where we'll next spread our human empire, and for those who care about such things, the enthusiasm for space is natural.

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    3. Re:Should we? by CRCulver · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The Earth is thoroughly mapped, explored, photographed, populated, and exploited. There are no frontiers or mystery here any more.

      I disagree. Powerful computing may lead to finding plenty of things of interest here on Earth. This theme has been explored by science-fiction writers in recent decades.

      For example, Poul Anderson in his series starting with Harvest of Stars depicted humanity splitting into two groups, one exploring the stars, and the other content to remain on Earth and (as post-human machine intelligences) explore mathematics and other pursuits unimaginable to the human race as it is today. Of course, as an ardent Libertarian and advocate for space exploration, Anderson made the Earthbound "navel-gazers" the villains, but he was still aware that human expansion into space isn't a given.

      In his novel Marooned in Realtime Vernor Vinge proposed that space might be empty because advanced civilizations don't expand outwards into the stars, but instead move into a virtual reality once they have sufficiently powerful computing power.

    4. Re:Should we? by Sperbels · · Score: 4, Interesting

      An interesting twist on that is that post-human machine intelligences are actually the best suited for space exploration. The need power and raw materials to renew their bodies. They don't need an ecosystem and a gravity well to maintain their health. As long as there's a sending and receiving station, they can travel at the speed of light. Long voyages to other stars would not be an issue for them. In fact, I'd image they'd be far more prosperous off of the planet.

    5. Re:Should we? by Sarten-X · · Score: 2

      ...but we know it's not mapped. We've mapped a good chunk of sea floor, and figured out what to expect. Maybe we could find some new geologic features or something, and those biologists still have a lot of work to do naming everything, but we know more or less what's down there. For an oceanographer, saying "I have no idea what's there" is a sign that you haven't done your research, not that we've hit the limits of our instruments. That's still a valid justification for space exploration, though. We have no idea what other worlds are like, because we haven't sent enough probes and instruments to find out. We simply don't know what's under those clouds, or what that surface is made of, or why that moon is that particular color.

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    6. Re:Should we? by Sperbels · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Perhaps. But this urge has driven the human race out of Africa and brought us to the edge of space. We're only going to stagnate here as we fill up the planet with people and fight each for the remaining resources. We're even better at killing each other than we are at exploring. Why not direct that energy to kill each other toward expanding our territory into space.

    7. Re:Should we? by Sarten-X · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision.

      -Randall Munroe

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    8. Re:Should we? by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 5, Informative

      The US became the space leader because the N-1 failed. Had the Russian moonshot rocket worked, they would have beaten us to the moon by a week or so.

      None of the N1 launches were manned, and the US had already done a manned flyby of the Moon (the Apollo 8 mission, to be exact) exactly 2 months before the first N1 test shot was made in February 1969. The US landed 2 men on the Moon 5 months after that.

      So, no, there was absolutely no chance at all of that happening.

      --
      Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
    9. Re:Should we? by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      A year's notice would be plenty of time to build a shelter inside a mountain

      But we'd spend the first 6 months arguing about where to build it, another 5 arguing about who should go in it and 4 weeks fighting over it.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    10. Re:Should we? by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

      It's a lot harder to do that with a spacecraft if you know you need the Oberth effect of your destination to make it home.

      It's called an "Earth Return Trajectory".

      Basically, it's a two-year long transition orbit to Mars. More deltaV to enter the orbit, quite a bit more to enter Mars orbit at the other end, but if you have a problem along the way, you'll be back to Earth eventually (or your bodies will be, in any case) assuming no action on your part.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
  3. No, who cares? by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The first mission or two is probably no return anyway so who cares if you can't abort?

    I'd still sign on in a heartbeat.

    We need to be WAY less cautious about manned space travel again, we aren't going to do much of import at this pace.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:No, who cares? by itzly · · Score: 2

      Robot operators have a lag time of a millisecond. They just need to get a little smarter, but we're working hard on that.

    2. Re:No, who cares? by KeensMustard · · Score: 2
      No need for every command to be confirmed by a earthbound operator. Just make it semi-autonomous i.e "Head towards point X but stop and look at anything unusual".

      Worth noting also that a machine with modern sensory equipment and software is going to be far far superior at spotting the "unusual" something as it makes it's way to point X. A human normally has 5 senses he uses to absorb information - but on Mars, this is effectively reduce to one - or less than one, because the light on Mars will fool the human vision into missing things (differentiations) which are actually important. The other senses (hearing, smell, touch, taste) are of no use because the human is ensconced in a suit, in a practical vacuum.

      A rover typically operates with multitude of senses simultaneously - senses designed not for roaming about on earth, but for Mars. Vision into the infra red and ultraviolet, spectral analysis. Radiation detectors. Radar. Numerous things it can use to detect out of pattern materials for further investigation.

      Give an unmanned mission even half the funding needed for a manned mission and you will get 10x the science of a manned mission.

    3. Re:No, who cares? by khallow · · Score: 2

      Worth noting also that a machine with modern sensory equipment and software is going to be far far superior at spotting the "unusual" something as it makes it's way to point X.

      A big part of the reason I'm not convinced is because of how much boosters of unmanned-only exaggerate the capabilities of such machines. There's no current machine that can beat a pressure-suited expert on the ground. And merely having better sensory equipment (when that actually is the case) doesn't mean a better ability at spotting the unusual.

      In the meantime, the current desultory effort at studying Mars, means we'll lose at least a whole generation of researchers long before we get to human-level science acquisition on Mars.

    4. Re:No, who cares? by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 2

      A single human on Mars could do in a week more than every previous rover on mars put together has accomplished to date.

      Sure. And at only 100X the cost of all those missions, it would be such a bargain.

  4. Re:Second recommendation by TheRealHocusLocus · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If you're interested in a hard sci-fi near-future look at how a non-catastrophic, well planned mission with unforgettable personalities and epic adventures, I recommend Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy: Red, Blue, Green Mars. There's catastrophe in there too but it occurs only occasionally.

    There's more "things go wrong... in spaaace!" novels and movies than you can shake a stick at. During these boring space creature features I wind up doing a freeze frame on the movie.

    I then mentally leave the room and walk around down the space station's corridors, look out the windows, maybe browse the tech manuals for the station. Then I key up some popular music these people of the future listen to, go to the space john (not much has changed) and visit the hydroponics bays. Have some lunch. If it's a lunar colony I don a suit and go play some golf, take a buggy ride. Then I strap on wings and climb the giant trees that fill the dome and jump off and fly.

    Eventually I mentally return to the room that is frozen in time on the screen, take a deep breath and un-pause the movie. And the gallant characters resume their battle with the Space Menace and mostly become eaten or horribly killed and all the precious equipment becomes ruined in the process and everything blows up.

    Life can be lonely sometimes when you're not into the things that other people enjoy.

    --
    <blink>down the rabbit hole</blink>
  5. Re:Bring your kids to Mars?! by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Your opinion of what a good parent is, isn't the end all, be all, of parenting...

    Parents brought their kids to America on ships a long time ago, ever heard of the Mayflower?

    Many died...

    Those who didn't, experienced something well beyond the "comfort and safety" of Europe...

  6. Citation Needed by KeensMustard · · Score: 5, Insightful
    The next great leap in human spaceflight is a manned mission to a world within our Solar System: most likely Mars.

    [citation needed]

    I think we will never achieve a great leap forward until we come to terms with the fact that what is holding us back from leaping forward is the irrational notion that we need to send flesh for a mission to be legitimate. Sending human flesh to another planet is about as useful long term as sending frozen steak or a banana. We don't insist on using only our hand when building a house: we use tools and machinery. In fact, it is said that the thing that separates us from other species is our tool making. We make tools to achieve the things we want to do, and to advance and make our lives better. The tools for exploring outer space are unmanned probes, robots, machines. Machines that don't require flesh in situ to make them work. 10000 years ago, flesh was needed to dig a hole. Now, we use a back hoe. We don't think of a hole dug by a back hoe as somehow suspect because we didn't dig it by hand. Why is space travel subject to these artificial constraints? Sure: Before the age of computers we didn't imagine machines could be sufficiently autonomous to enable them to be effective, long term in space. But now, we know better. In the 1960s, it was thought the future lay with sending humans into space to move levers. Now, we know better. The humans are just inert luggage. Let's go luggage free.

    1. Re:Citation Needed by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Why travel anywhere when you can just watch a documentary about it on TV, right?

    2. Re:Citation Needed by Beck_Neard · · Score: 2

      > For all their sophistication, the Mars rovers need days to do what a geology grad student could do in a minute.

      Why the hurry? It's not like Mars is going anywhere.

      Plus, the robots have a lot of autonomy. They move around obstacles pretty much by themselves, with only occasional help.

      Humans would be confined to a radius of within the base camp (the maximum distance they can move to and get back before supplies run out) and to missions maybe a day or two long before having to return. But what about rovers? Sure, they slowly, but once they get some place they can stay there and do science for long periods without rest.

      --
      A fool and his hard drive are soon parted.
  7. Re:Bring your kids to Mars?! by Zontar+The+Mindless · · Score: 2

    Non sequitur. As long as there have been kids getting born and raised, there have been kids getting born and raised in transit. That's neither a reason for not having the kids, nor for not making the trip.

    What bothers me about you self-appointed anti-space-nutter crusaders:

    1. I don't see any space nutters. I see some people who are interested in space travel the way some folks like you are interested in pro sports and pr0n.

    2. Your arguments all boil down to "I'm afraid to do this; therefore, you should be forbidden from doing it." Now that is fucked up.

    --
    Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
  8. Rushing to mars is crap science by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We still don't have a station orbiting the moon. We don't have a station on the moon. We don't have a sustainable system within our own lunar orbit.

    The only reason a Mars mission is one way is because we insist on building the vehicles and launching from Earth.

    The cost of launching from earth is much higher than from space because we have to break Earth's gravity and pass through the atmosphere.

    We picked on India for making it to Mars by basically cutting corners and just slingshotting a chunk of cheap crap at Mars and then said "ours costs more because we're more conservative". What's our response? Throw a huge expensive chunk of metal at Mars to prove we do it better.

    Build the next space station already. Build it big and ship it people and supplies and do it there. If we cat accomplish that, we don belong in space.

  9. Technological Limitations by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 2

    Because space is mostly empty, and extremely hostile.

    Given the technology available 500+ years ago so was North America: freezing cold winters, strange plants, new diseases etc. Indeed the available technology was barely able to match the challenge and some early colonies failed. However once there, as our knowledge of the new environment and our technology improved it became easy to survive there.

    Isn't space exactly the same? Our technology is barely up to the job of keeping us alive on Mars and I expect some of the early colonies will fail. However given time it is likely that survival will become easier and there is a good chance to discover new resources which Earth lacks and which might be very useful in the future e.g. helium-3 on the moon.

    1. Re:Technological Limitations by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      Your analogy makes no sense. Or more precisely, the problems with north american settlements by "whites" are much more complex than "lack of technology".
      I read an article about one of the first settlements. The settlement was at a river that was incredible rich in fish, especially cat fish. After 60 years the inhabitants where killing each other and canibalizing on the weaker ones.
      The background: they only had _so many_ fishing nets brought with them from Europe. After all nets where broken, they did not "know" how to make new ones. Sounds completely retarded, Everyone in our society in principle can craft a fishing net. Even if I had to use bark from trees, it would be time consuming, but a simple matter of just doing it.
      The people there did not even come to the idea to make their own nets ... they where completely stuck in "medieval ideas how things are done" ... and to dumb to use a spear to hunt cat fish (imagine that from the bones found there the fishes where roughly 2m big!)

      Our technology is barely up to the job of keeping us alive on Mars and I expect some of the early colonies will fail.
      You are mistaken. We have this technology since 1890, minimum. There is no much difference between a submarine and a spacecraft. Nor is it particular challenging ... technology wise ... to put a permanent base on Mars.
      The main hinderness is: absurd high transportation costs and the _need_ to make it work at the first time.

      When 1700 or 800 even, 10 wiking families wanted to emigrate to Greenland or Wineland (north america, canada actually), what would they do? Count the people, build boats according to it, gather cattle and water and beer and wine and: depart. Thats it. The families themselves would build the boats. Ofc they need a reliable source which courses to sail to reach the Orkneys, Shettlands, Faroer and Icelands etc.
      But it is _easy_ if you and I would team up we certainly could craft a boat over the course 2 years with which we can cross the ocean (primitive boat).

      Now: how many people do need to gang up in our world to build a craft to reach Mars?

      Are 100 enough? How many people would be actually in such a craft? How much "money" or in other words "work power" and other resources do you need to reach Mars and build up a settlement?

      100 Vikings only need a few trees!!! And the tools to work on them!

      So bottom line: a trip to Mars with the goal to have a settlement there is not a technology problem. It is a money and resources sink, that is all.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    2. Re:Technological Limitations by crunchygranola · · Score: 2

      North America was successfully colonized with stone age technology. When the Europeans arrived, there were already people living in most every environment, even on the shores of the Arctic ocean, surviving with stone age technology. The European colonists could just ask about the plants etc and the only advanced technology they needed to support their lifestyle was blacksmithing and ship waning (carpentry). What made it hard was that they showed up to steal and conquer an already occupied continent.. How can you compare colonizing Mars and colonizing N. America?

      Right you are, but you are just scratching the surface.

      The real problem with the English colonialists was that they were a group of English playboy-aristocrats and their man-servants arriving without any supplies or equipment. Seriously. These people had no relevant skills or equipment to survive. The fate of the colony was decided before they left port in England.

      The Spanish, with their crews of illiterate seamen, did better - when they weren't abusing the natives to attack and kill them and deny them supplies.

      The only colonization on Earth that remotely compares to the colonization of Mars is the colonization of the South Pole. There all supplies have to be flown in, you are entirely dependent on an enclosed base for survival, and if it is the wrong time of year, and you get sick, you might just die for lack of appropriate treatment.

      --
      Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
  10. Rational reasons to explore space by sjbe · · Score: 2

    Because space is mostly empty, and extremely hostile. There's no rational reason for anybody to go there.

    There are plenty of rational reasons to go there. Not all of them are economically rational. None of them are without some amount of danger. But the notion that there is no rational reason to go into space is easily and demonstrably false. Off the top of my head:

    1) Scientific discovery, particularly as it relates to the human body in hostile environments
    2) Technology development
    3) Preserving the species (the Earth will cease to be habitable at some point)
    4) Curiosity (simple curiosity is rational if risky)
    5) Economic development (space R&D has a multi-fold economic payback)
    6) Because the experience of standing on another planet is as different as standing on a mountain versus looking at a post card