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MIT Professor Advocates Ending Asteroid Redirect Mission To Fund Asteroid Survey

MarkWhittington writes Professor Richard Binzel published a commentary in the journal Nature that called for two things. He proposed that NASA cancel the Asteroid Redirect Mission currently planned for the early 2020s. Instead, he would like the asteroid survey mandated by the George E. Brown, Jr. Near-Earth Object Survey Act of 2005, part of the 2005 NASA Authorization Act, funded at $200 million a year. Currently NASA funds the survey at $20 million a year, considered inadequate to complete the identification of 90 percent of hazardous near-Earth objects 140 meters or greater by 2020 as mandated by the law.

116 comments

  1. But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There's no profit to be made on determining which asteroids may or may not kill us all. There IS profit to be made on mining asteroids.

    It's hard to get an idea pushed forward if you can't show people the money.

    1. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      "There IS profit to be made on mining asteroids."

      That's absolutely ludicrous. Go find out the spot price for mineral ore that's available by the tons right here on Earth.

      Tell me how you intend to make a *profit* by going into space with massive amounts of technology and resources???

      To get the same things we already have here?

    2. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      From February 2013:

      "The 150-foot-wide (45 meters) asteroid 2012 DA14 — which will zoom within 17,200 miles (27,000 kilometers) of Earth on Friday, marking the closest approach by such a large space rock that astronomers have ever known about in advance — may harbor $65 billion of recoverable water and $130 billion in metals, say officials with celestial mining firm Deep Space Industries."

      http://www.space.com/19758-asteroid-worth-billions-2012-da14-flyby.html

    3. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      may harbor $65 billion of recoverable water....

      Man, that asteroid water must be quite valuable. I guess they plan to bottle it.

    4. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're missing the point. My argument was to convince the people with the checkbook that this is worth doing, and the mining people ARE DOING IT. It's like getting mad that my argument doesn't convince you that Santa is real...well of course he isn't, but I only need to convince a small child (the government) that Santa (mining profits) are real.

    5. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One question to keep in mind is "how much will those metals be worth once they enter the market?"

      Some of the rarer metals are pretty valuable; but it is less clear how their value would hold up in the face of a substantial supply increase.

    6. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by butalearner · · Score: 1

      Tell me how you intend to make a *profit* by going into space with massive amounts of technology and resources???

      To get the same things we already have here?

      True, even with those kinds of numbers, I very much doubt it will be profitable to bring it back to Earth. It does, however, enable a leap forward for human spaceflight. It's tremendously expensive to lift stuff from Earth's surface, and water is far and away the most useful resource for astronauts, well beyond simply drinking or bathing with it. Surround a spacecraft with it and you've got a radiation barrier. Electrolyze it for rocket fuel (and potentially other types of fuel for backup power) and components of breathable air. Grow crops for food and natural carbon dioxide scrubbing. If you're on an asteroid, moon, or planet, mix it with regolith to help create surface structures.

    7. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by nedlohs · · Score: 5, Informative

      Water on Earth is cheap and plentiful

      Water in Earth orbit on the other hand is neither.

    8. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The people with the checkbook aren't idiots, that's how they got the checkbook. You, and your Space Nutter buddies, all you have are moldy yellowing posters from the Space Age and sci-fi delusions.

      And calling the person with the checkbook a "small child" while you're stomping your feet about death asteroids and space water, well, let's just say it's not the most convincing approach.

    9. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 3, Informative

      From February 2013:

      "The 150-foot-wide (45 meters) asteroid 2012 DA14 — which will zoom within 17,200 miles (27,000 kilometers) of Earth on Friday, marking the closest approach by such a large space rock that astronomers have ever known about in advance — may harbor $65 billion of recoverable water and $130 billion in metals, say officials with celestial mining firm Deep Space Industries."

      http://www.space.com/19758-asteroid-worth-billions-2012-da14-flyby.html

      Yeah, that's petty expensive water and any value it may be said to have relies on there being a market in space. There is not.

      Let's say it's essentially solid ice. That would be about 15000 cubic meters of ice, so they're pricing it at at least 4.3 million dollars per cubic meter, or 4.3 dollars per liter. So yeah, pricey water under the best assumption. More likely it's mostly rock like other near-earth objects.

      Now let's say it's mostly rock. It would have to be some pretty damn special rock to be worth $8.6 million per cubic meter.

      These numbers were simply made up by people who are interested in doing it for the sake of doing it as long as somebody else pays for it.

    10. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Chatterton · · Score: 4, Funny

      Ask De Beers, they pretty much nailed the problem...

    11. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      LOL. Do you really think it's just this perfectly safe drinking water that just happens to be floating in canteens out between Mars and Jupiter? And all we have to do is reach out and grab them?

      Let me answer the other Space Nutter down there:

      " It's tremendously expensive to lift stuff from Earth's surface, "

      Yeah, no shit. So how do you plan on getting all that equipment up there to do the work in the first place?

      Unless you think space is just a giant Wal Mart with pre-packaged goods just floating around?

    12. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Capt.Albatross · · Score: 1

      Water on Earth is cheap and plentiful

      Water in Earth orbit on the other hand is neither.

      Water on on earth is needed, and in large quantities. Water in orbit is currently only being used by a few nations' vanity projects.

      If you want to justify space exploration on economics, then you must accept that economics will set the schedule.

    13. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by morgauxo · · Score: 0

      I guess we could just spend all the money on the same old things ad nauseam because it might take a while to start getting a return on anything else. Why try for progress when we can just keep doing the same things our ancestors did?

    14. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "These numbers were simply made up by people who are interested in doing it for the sake of doing it as long as somebody else pays for it."

      That's the whole point. It's not about what it's actually worth, it's what you can convince people it's worth.

      "Now let's say it's mostly rock. It would have to be some pretty damn special rock to be worth $8.6 million per cubic meter."

      Have you ever heard of De Beers?

    15. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      may harbor $65 billion of recoverable water....

      Man, that asteroid water must be quite valuable. I guess they plan to bottle it.

      Key word there being MAY. How much is going to cost to get it and bring it back? Might as well build a load of desalination plants, take water from the ocean, make it useable and do something about increasing water levels. Two birds, one stone.

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    16. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Thanshin · · Score: 1

      Tell me how you intend to make a *profit* by going into space with massive amounts of technology and resources???

      To get the same things we already have here?

      It's a matter of weight, not of composition. Even relatively small asteroids can contain metals priced in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

      http://www.asterank.com/

    17. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 2

      Do you know how much you could sell virgin primordial untouched by humans without any terrestrial pollutants water for? This seems like something that you could dupe people into paying at least $10 a liter for.

      --
      Time to offend someone
    18. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They're getting their diamonds from space too? Wow. Who knew?

    19. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      The important measure is not what the situation is, but where it's going. The easy surface minerals are gone, and as we dig deeper the minig gets exponentially more expensive at the same time as it runs into increasing environmental restrictions. When we consider how friendly space is to machines, a highly automated asteroidal mining operation could prove cheaper in the long run.

      What we need to do next is assay a large sampling of asteroids for mineral content. Why not send out probes equipped with a single high-power laser: fly to a candidate asteroid and keep station near it for a few weeks while zapping as many places as possible with the laser. Spectral analysis of each zap point will tell us the surface composition. Repeat for as many asteroids as we can.

    20. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Water is one of a large class of substances that we would like to find in space for local use, rather than to send back. Any mining materials return operation will want to minimize human presence, but for maintainability that presence cannot be zero. Hence the need for life-maintaining consumables.

    21. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Bring it back? Why the fuck would you be bringing it back?

      Water can be separated into hydrogen and oxygen (read: rocket fuel and oxidizer) with nothing more than electricity. Coincidentally, electricity is the only resource currently available in Earth orbit. Consequently, asteroid water can easily be turned into fuel in orbit. This is fantastic because having fuel in orbit means we don't need to launch as much from Earth. This is doubly fantastic because the overwhelming majority of a rocket's mass is... fuel.

      But you're over here talking about water levels on Earth. Slashdot got real dumb.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    22. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Let's say it's essentially solid ice. That would be about 15000 cubic meters of ice, so they're pricing it at at least 4.3 million dollars per cubic meter, or 4.3 dollars per liter. So yeah, pricey water under the best assumption.

      Going by 2013 prices, it costs at least $4000/kg for delivery of anything to LEO. If we assume water has a value of 0 dollars per liter on Earth, that's 4000 dollars per liter in LEO. Using your math, the folks from Deep Space Industries are hoping to sell their asteroid water for 1/1000th its current value. I question the intelligence of anyone that describes such a dramatic decrease in cost as "pricey".

      Yeah, that's petty expensive water and any value it may be said to have relies on there being a market in space. There is not.

      That's false. We've spent literally millions of dollars on procuring water in LEO. Furthermore, shaving three orders of magnitude off the price will greatly increase the size of this already-existing market if there's any elasticity at all.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    23. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by CeasedCaring · · Score: 1

      Equipment only needs to be launched ONCE!
      It doesn't matter whether the water is pure or not. It can be electrolyzed into H2 & O2 using solar power.
      (eventually) Free air & rocket fuel, anyone?

    24. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Deadstick · · Score: 1

      No, they're getting their diamonds from a source that THEY control, and THEY decide what the retail price is.

      Like owning an asteroid.

    25. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by uberdilligaff · · Score: 1

      Right idea, math is a little off. A 45m diameter rock has a volume of ~48,000 cubic meters. It if were all water, that's $65B/48k or $1.35 million per cubic meter. Said cubic meter is 1000 liters, so that's $1,350 per liter. Don't spill any.

      --
      Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain. --Friederich Schiller
    26. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by arvindsg · · Score: 1

      Strawman

    27. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      Bring it back? Why the fuck would you be bringing it back? Water can be separated into hydrogen and oxygen (read: rocket fuel and oxidizer) with nothing more than electricity. Coincidentally, electricity is the only resource currently available in Earth orbit. Consequently, asteroid water can easily be turned into fuel in orbit. This is fantastic because having fuel in orbit means we don't need to launch as much from Earth. This is doubly fantastic because the overwhelming majority of a rocket's mass is... fuel. But you're over here talking about water levels on Earth. Slashdot got real dumb.

      What else would you do with it? What the fuck good is it space? Right, so you can use some of what you mined to make fuel saving on a cost but who are you going to sell all the rest of this stuff to? What about all the minerals mined? You just going to use them to build houses in space? What good reason is there for mining stuff in space and leaving it space where it's useless to pretty much anyone on earth.

      It's not like all the stuff mined on earth just gets left where it is. It all needs processing. Okay you might build a processing plant in orbit (ain't going to cheap even if we could) but you're still going to have to bring it back to orbit and keep it there. And then what do you do with it?

      All I'm saying is if they want water, there's plenty right here and it's easier to treat it than go 17,000 miles into space (by Friday) capture it and bring it back times however many trips it will take. If you want water in space it's probably still easier to get it off the earth than to go somewhere else to get it.

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    28. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ". The easy surface minerals are gone"

      Gone? As in "black hole" gone? No, they've been refined and concentrated, and are now in landfills, which makes landfills orders of magnitude more rich in materials than space.

      "When we consider how friendly space is to machines,"

      WHICH machines???? Automated cameras, and small RC tanks that shred themselves to pieces just travelling a few meters, never mind digging!!!

      You're insane.

      "What we need to do next is assay a large sampling of asteroids for mineral content"

      "We" need to do no such thing.

      "Why not send out probes equipped with a single high-power laser: fly to a candidate asteroid and keep station near it for a few weeks while zapping as many places as possible with the laser. Spectral analysis of each zap point will tell us the surface composition. Repeat for as many asteroids as we can."

      Wow, I think we'll find the same exact elements we already have on Earth, unless you think the Periodic Table of Elements is a local charter?

    29. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Capt.Albatross · · Score: 1

      The folks from Deep Space Industries are hoping to sell their asteroid water for 1/1000th its current value. I question the intelligence of anyone that describes such a dramatic decrease in cost as "pricey".

      Good, then the prof. is right - there's no point in the government spending money on developing technology that private enterprise can so easily and profitably create.

    30. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your user name should be Ceased Thinking. It's not possible that an adult with even a passing understanding of physics and technology can seriously think the way you do.

      It's just not possible.

    31. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Capt.Albatross · · Score: 1

      Water is one of a large class of substances that we would like to find in space for local use, rather than to send back. Any mining materials return operation will want to minimize human presence, but for maintainability that presence cannot be zero. Hence the need for life-maintaining consumables.

      I think you have missed the point of my second paragraph, "If you want to justify space exploration on economics, then you must accept that economics will set the schedule." In economic arguments, you cannot simply treat imagined future needs as if they were actual current needs.

      A lot of space boosterism displays confusion over the proper use of the present and future tenses.

    32. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      LOL. Hilarious. It must be fun to live in five-color comic book sci-fi world?

    33. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      That's still 1/3 the current lowest cost of water in LEO. Plenty of room for profit while undercutting the competition.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    34. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      What else would you do with it?

      Why would you need to do anything else with it? Is being able to undercut the current prices for fuel by several orders of magnitude not enough? You haven't really set forth a convincing argument (or any argument, for that matter) regarding why cheap fuel is insufficient as a motivator. I'll answer your question anyway: you could use it as drinking water for astronauts, or you could use it as shielding against radiation.

      What the fuck good is it space?

      Fuel is good for moving things around. Water and shielding are good for keeping astronauts alive.

      Right, so you can use some of what you mined to make fuel saving on a cost but who are you going to sell all the rest of this stuff to?

      I'm not sure I understand your question. Are you suggesting that 15e6 kg of water is more than we will ever need for rocket fuel? Why do you believe that? Nonetheless, the remainder could be sold for other purposes (drinking water, radiation shielding, etc).

      What about all the minerals mined? You just going to use them to build houses in space?

      Perhaps. This is orthogonal to the discussion, though. If the water-mining operation alone is worthwhile, it doesn't matter what is done with the minerals. They can be discarded and the mission is still economically viable. If they can be put to productive use, or used to build houses in space, then this would only make the mission more attractive.

      What good reason is there for mining stuff in space and leaving it space where it's useless to pretty much anyone on earth.

      Well, the obvious answer is that one good reason is because it's useful to pretty much anyone not on Earth. Other reasons include basically the same set of good reasons to engage in spaceflight in general. Of course, you seem opposed to spaceflight in general, so you may not agree with those reasons.

      It's not like all the stuff mined on earth just gets left where it is. It all needs processing. Okay you might build a processing plant in orbit (ain't going to cheap even if we could) but you're still going to have to bring it back to orbit and keep it there. And then what do you do with it?

      Perhaps you missed the part where the whole fucking plan is to do just that. They're talking about mining asteroids in space to provide useful resources in space. Capture an asteroid, move it to Earth orbit, and proceed to mine and refine the resources. And then what do you do with it? Gee, I don't know. Oh, wait, how about this novel never-before-heard idea! How about they electrolyze the water to make rocket fuel? But wait, that sounds familiar... It sounds a lot like the very post you replied to. Excellent reading comprehension skills, friend.

      All I'm saying is if they want water, there's plenty right here and it's easier to treat it than go 17,000 miles into space (by Friday) capture it and bring it back times however many trips it will take. If you want water in space it's probably still easier to get it off the earth than to go somewhere else to get it.

      It's probably still easier to get it off the Earth than to get it from space? Because... because you have a gut feeling that confirms this? What the fuck happened to slashdot? Explain why you think it's "probably" easier to cut launch costs to anywhere between 1/3 and 1/1000 of current rates than it is to do what these guys are talking about.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    35. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      I agree with him in that sense. Leave the "potentially profitable" ventures to private industry, as that's the only stuff you can expect them to go for anyway. Leave the "probably not profitable" stuff, like searching for asteroids that might kill unimaginable numbers of people, to government, because otherwise nobody's going to do it.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    36. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      " why cheap fuel is insufficient as a motivator. "

      Uh, that's about as plausible as unicorn farts at this point. No such thing is even remotely possible at this point, so why bring it up?

      The rest of your case just gets worse and worse.

      No one's going anywhere. No one's mining asteroids like it's the Far West and it's just the big bad government holding you back.

      Get over it. The sooner you can free up your brain to solve real problems, the better off we all are.

      Walling off part of your brain so your precious childhood fantasies of Space 1999 don't get destroyed is just sad.

      Grow up.

    37. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by wonkey_monkey · · Score: 1

      Asteroid insurance?

      --
      systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
    38. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Which part isn't possible? Spaceflight, mining, photovoltaic power generation, or electrolysis? Furthermore, is it physically impossible or merely an engineering challenge? If it is only an engineering challenge, is there a reason why you believe that your suggested course of action (to get over it) is more likely to achieve their objectives than is their plan?

      It must suck to be you. I've actually done cool work with NASA specifically because I refuse to "get over it". How about you? Are you enjoying cashiering?

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    39. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      Why not let fully automated mining machines dig deeper here on Earth ? At least when they break, it's cheap to send a mechanic.

    40. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "merely" an engineering challenge? Oh is that all?

      Please describe how electrolysis works on earth first, then describe how this magical fuel lab is supposed to work in free-fall with only radiative cooling. I supposed in your fever dreams it's liquefied, yes?

      I also note your arrogance that you think there is only cashiering and NASA in the world. I guess at some point you had to stoop to buying parts somewhere and using a poor cashier somewhere?

      Your colossal arrogance and your childish delusions are the end of you.

      It must suck to be so deluded you can't see reality and your only answer is "you must be a cashier".

      Nice mentality there.

      http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the...
      http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the...

      You *know* space is dead, so you push your delusion even further out so that you think we need to go to space... so we can be in space!

      Delusional thought pattern. Completely bonkers, insane, unreal.

      And what the hell is "Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle." supposed to even mean?

      Chuuch???

    41. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      You'd still need to build the rockets on Earth and launch them to get to the fuel. This means the majority of the rocket mass will still be fuel. Plus, you'll need to bring an empty tank to the refilling station.

    42. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Better hurry up with that business plan and go to a bank and start that business. It would be selfish in today's economy to keep such an obvious gold mine to yourself!

      Chop chop! Get to it!

      Talk is cheap! Now *DO IT* you flappy-lipped space nutter big talker!

    43. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Immerman · · Score: 1

      > If you're on an asteroid, moon, or planet, mix it with regolith to help create surface structures.
      Well, you could probably use the water as part of the feedstock to synthesize some sort of binding agent, but wet sand alone isn't much of a construction material unless it's frozen, and there's not many places this side of Jupiter where water will reliably stay frozen in vacuum. Even mud hut style construction requires soil, not sand - aka organic matter that almost certainly won't be present away from Earth unless you're producing it yourself.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    44. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      It's probably still easier to get it off the Earth than to get it from space? Because... because you have a gut feeling that confirms this? What the fuck happened to slashdot? Explain why you think it's "probably" easier to cut launch costs to anywhere between 1/3 and 1/1000 of current rates than it is to do what these guys are talking about.

      Going by TFA there's almost twice as much worth of metals than water available on this thing, so why would you focus on only getting the water for apparently the only use of making rocket fuel? So basically what your saying is go get this thing and either mine it in space or put it in an orbit that works for us and use it solely as a fuel source for rockets? That's the only use you seem to be focusing on. I mean all you have to is zap it with electricity right? Having a great fuel supply available in space is great for the rockets (presuming they don't start using a different fuel in the future). But you still need to either make a processing plant on the asteroid (big bucks) or develop a bunch of space trucks (big bucks) to fetch to somewhere where there is processing plants. I'll be the first to admit I know fuck all about how to make rocket fuel from water but I assume you need more than a giant cattle prod. You did say you need 'nothing more than electricity' but that's not strictly true is it? That's like saying you need nothing more than steam to generate electricity, and hey, steam comes from water so we can use the water to make the electric to make the fuel from the water. You know what. Sounds like a foolproof idea, I'll race you to the patent shop.

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    45. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by stealth_finger · · Score: 1

      actually it wasn't on tfa but that other post. whatever.

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    46. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by catmistake · · Score: 1

      "There IS profit to be made on mining asteroids."

      That's absolutely ludicrous. Go find out the spot price for mineral ore that's available by the tons right here on Earth.

      Tell me how you intend to make a *profit* by going into space with massive amounts of technology and resources???

      To get the same things we already have here?

      Space is not a cash machine. The discovery made getting there, being there, and even failing to get there are not something you can readily take to the pawn shop or stock exchanges. There is not a quite simple enough answer for you that would withstand the scrutiny of slashdot. But your question is answered easily if it is even remotely physically and economically possible to nudge a small asteroid, change its path slightly, and have it eventually collide with the Earth, or get into an accessable Earth orbit, during the lifetime of a company that would lay claim to it before it arrives. Find the right little asteroid, and not necessarily one in the asteroid belt but perhaps other types of objects, and its a flying proverbial goldmine... even if its a mountain-sized chunk of silver or uranium. In a debt based economy, it sounds plausable enough to me, even if it takes 400 years to deliver the thing.

    47. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Complete and total Space Nuttery of the worst kind.

    48. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by braindrainbahrain · · Score: 1

      Where did it say that the ARM was a profit driven mission? If it is, why is the taxpayer subsidizing what a private company could do with its own money?

    49. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      You'd still need to build the rockets on Earth and launch them to get to the fuel. This means the majority of the rocket mass will still be fuel. Plus, you'll need to bring an empty tank to the refilling station.

      You'd only need to bring enough fuel to get to the orbital fuel depot, or more specifically any fuel that is spent beyond Earth orbit doesn't need to be launched from Earth. It is unclear why an empty tank would need to be brought, as presumably the fuel used for launch was stored in a tank, and since the fuel was used for launch, the tank should be empty upon arrival in orbit. Obviously this poses a problem for vertically staged rocket designs, but not others.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    50. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      any fuel that is spent beyond Earth orbit doesn't need to be launched from Earth

      Very few rockets need to go beyond Earth orbit. Except for some research on other planets, there's nothing out there.

      Obviously this poses a problem for vertically staged rocket designs, but not others

      Are there other types in use ?

    51. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      "merely" an engineering challenge? Oh is that all?

      If you don't see the distinction between a physical impossibility and an engineering difficulty, a discussion on slashdot is probably not going to be sufficient to illuminate this point.

      Please describe how electrolysis works on earth first

      I voltage is applied across a substance, causing a current to flow... Wait a minute... Why the fuck am I explaining basic physics? Educate yourself on your own time.

      then describe how this magical fuel lab is supposed to work in free-fall with only radiative cooling.

      Are other cooling mechanisms required for electrolysis to work? I don't get it. Pretty sure they electrolyze shit all the time on the ISS and I believe that too is in free-fall with only radiative cooling.

      I supposed in your fever dreams it's liquefied, yes?

      The magical fuel lab is liquified? No... and for that matter neither is the water. Water doesn't do "liquified" in the vacuum of space. Are you saying we lack the technology to melt ice? Seriously?

      I also note your arrogance that you think there is only cashiering and NASA in the world. I guess at some point you had to stoop to buying parts somewhere and using a poor cashier somewhere?

      Indeed, we should not denigrate cashiers but only those who would propose we continue to advance human technology.

      Your colossal arrogance and your childish delusions are the end of you.

      Are the end of me, eh? And yet here I am, replying to an AC. I don't feel ended...

      It must suck to be so deluded you can't see reality and your only answer is "you must be a cashier".

      "You must be a cashier" wasn't really an "answer", let alone my only one. It was more an argument that the "get over it" sentiment is very small-minded and unlikely to yield any significant advancement in the state of the art, much like cashiering.

      You *know* space is dead, so you push your delusion even further out so that you think we need to go to space... so we can be in space!

      Reasoning from a false premise (that I "*know*" space is dead) will not lead to a logically sound argument.

      Delusional thought pattern. Completely bonkers, insane, unreal.

      Fucking grammar, how does it work?

      And what the hell is "Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle." supposed to even mean?

      Chuuch???

      A reasonable person sitting an an Internet-connected computer might ask that question of Google before announcing their lack of problem-solving skills by asking to be spoon-fed some knowledge. However, since I've already blessed you with one link to lmgtfy.com, I won't burden you with another link to click. My sig is a reference to an expression of cordial agreement unique to American pimp culture circa the 1990s. It was popularized by Archbishop Don "Magic" Juan, a renowned pimp, as well as his friend Calvin "Snoop Dogg" Broadus Jr., a popular entertainer. "Chuuch" is the phonetic spelling of the word "church" as rendered in an African-American Vernacular English dialect that is more common in the southern United States. Your quizzical response to hearing it is reminiscent of one Brian "Marilyn Manson" Warner, who when asked by MTV staff about his understanding of the term, indicated his inability to correctly pronounce it as well as his total ignorance of its meaning.

      Cool anti-space links though. Impressive rhetoric, a bit light on reason, but cool nonetheless. I bet they make for great talking points.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    52. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      A bank? Really? A bank?

      You know how I know you don't own a business? Because you think banks are a possible source of funding for these types of projects.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    53. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      water is far and away the most useful resource for astronauts

      It would be a lot cheaper if we just kept the astronauts here on Earth. It's not like they're doing much useful stuff up there.

    54. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      How do you land an "even relatively small asteroid" safely in your processing plant here on Earth ?

    55. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These Space Nutters are not interested in reality. These guys are all about emotion, grandiose imagery, and nostalgia for a future that will never exist.

    56. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Going by TFA there's almost twice as much worth of metals than water available on this thing, so why would you focus on only getting the water for apparently the only use of making rocket fuel?

      Indeed, as you noted in your followup post, it's all just conjecture. It's unlikely to be just water, and it's unlikely to contain no water at all. I chose the number that was more favorable to my position, which was perhaps not totally honest. Don't expect rigorous number-crunching from back-of-napkin calculations performed in support of posts in long slashdot threads.

      So basically what your saying is go get this thing and either mine it in space or put it in an orbit that works for us and use it solely as a fuel source for rockets? That's the only use you seem to be focusing on.

      Both, really. Tow it to Earth orbit, then proceed to mine it in Earth orbit. I'm only focusing on mining water because it's the only non-sci-fi resource we need in orbit right now. Sure, some time in the future we might have use for other volatiles or maybe metals or I don't know what, when we're trying to build superstructures in space. But that's not today. Today, we don't have much going on in space, so we don't really have many immediate uses for unprocessed (or minimally processed) resources in space. We do however have an immediate need for water. Water as fuel, drink, and shielding. Talk of mining other resources is akin to futurism (which is cool, but not the basis for a sound business plan today).

      I mean all you have to is zap it with electricity right?

      You need to melt it first. To do that, you need to contain it, under pressure, since water doesn't have a liquid state in the vacuum of space. Then when it's liquid, indeed, you just zap it. Hydrogen will appear at the cathode, oxygen at the anode. Keep them separate and you're done. Of course, you may want to purify the water first, to preserve your electrodes. That complicates things a bit, since now you're talking about potentially doing fractional distillation in a weightless environment. But indeed, this isn't rocket science. It's not a project for the high school science fair, but it's not rocket science either.

      Having a great fuel supply available in space is great for the rockets (presuming they don't start using a different fuel in the future).

      Indeed, that's a real risk. The water-in-orbit market might collapse a bit if water were no longer useful as an economical fuel source. That's not going to happen for as long as we're using chemical rockets, though. There's no chemical fuel energy-dense enough to warrant lugging it up out of this gravity well. Even if we figure out amazingly awesome chemical fuels, the cost of launching them from Earth will make it unlikely that they'll be cost-competitive with space-sourced electrolyzed water.

      But you still need to either make a processing plant on the asteroid (big bucks) or develop a bunch of space trucks (big bucks) to fetch to somewhere where there is processing plants.

      The former, not the latter. The planned asteroid capture mission(s) have shown that it's probably not that hard to lasso ourselves a nice rock and put it in Earth orbit. Of course, these plans all hinge upon some rather shaky assumptions about asteroids. I grant that there is a chance that it could be much harder than we expect. But our expectations are still "it shouldn't be that hard". I agree that perfecting the technology to do all this in space will cost big bucks, and then working out the kinks until it's economically viable will likely take some time. However, this is about as unambitious as it gets. We're talking about melting the water out of a frozen rock and then applying an electric current through it. This isn't exactly a smelter.

      I'll be the first to admit I know fuck all about how to make rocket fuel from water

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    57. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      It would be cheaper to sell them regular tap water, and dupe them into thinking it was from asteroid.

    58. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, they maintain an artificial high value of a non-scarce item (check it out, diamond is actually very common unlike other - cheaper for some reason - gems), because they control supply and perceptions.
      And the GP post is sad (esp. given the suffering diamonds have caused), not funny...

    59. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Ecuador · · Score: 3, Funny

      It is actually very inexpensive to send water in space, as long as, like other food & drink, you send it up dehydrated.

      --
      Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. Polar Scope Align for iOS
    60. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then you know so much, DO IT. Stop talking, stop typing, stop reading AND DO IT.

      You presented the slam dunk business case, NOW DO IT.

      Or shut the hell up with your childish 1960s space age garbage. No one is going anywhere. You are the one with your tired space rhetoric, your empty promises, your delusions about this big market for water in space and these fantasies about these fuel factories floating around a sucking void, and your conflation of these ancient ideas with "progress".

      You want progress? You're afraid of progress, that's why you clutch to ancient fantasies like a drowning man hanging on to a 2x4 in the Pacific.

      The real progress will happen down here. There's 7 billion people waiting right here for progress.

      No one is waiting out there for your fantasies. And for your sig, that just shows you clutch to the past. Who cares about your 15 year old TMZ crap?

    61. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      any fuel that is spent beyond Earth orbit doesn't need to be launched from Earth

      Very few rockets need to go beyond Earth orbit. Except for some research on other planets, there's nothing out there.

      No rockets "need to" go anywhere. The only things that "need to" happen (in an absolute sense) are those things which are required by the laws of physics or the laws of logic. A millenium ago, very few ships needed to cross oceans. That doesn't mean that there wasn't great benefit to be had from trying to cross them anyway. With time, the need developed. The need did not preceed the development. Today, very few rockets "can go" beyond Earth orbit. With a fuel depot in orbit, that would change. It's possible (i'd say likely) that as we develop our space exploration technologies, we'll see increasing returns from our efforts, until a time when it is evident that "we need" spaceflight much like "we need" transoceanic shipping today.

      Regarding your other claim, well, I couldn't disagree more. Except for nearly everything in the entire observable universe, there's nothing out there. Indeed, the volume encosed by the set of all possible LEOs accounts for a negligible proportion of the observable universe. Virtually everything is out there, and we've barely snuck a peek yet. It seems quite presumptuous to make claims about that which we know so very little about. Back in the day, you'd have been the one complaining about how Columbus was wasting the crown's resources on his foolish high-seas adventures. As the human race has come to dominate this world thanks to the spirit of explorers, I invite you to lead, follow, or get out of the way.

      Obviously this poses a problem for vertically staged rocket designs, but not others

      Are there other types in use ?

      Of course!
      Well, there's the family of SSTO launchers (of which none have been built), including the Skylon spaceplane. Granted, none of those are "in use".
      There's also all the horizontally-staged rockets. The "Space Shuttle" was probably one of the more recognizable of these systems. There's the IOS rockets that will be launching all the TubeSat things. Neither of these are currently "in use" either, but there have been a variety in the past and I'm assuming that other launchers of this design type are still flying.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    62. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Then you know so much, DO IT. Stop talking, stop typing, stop reading AND DO IT. You presented the slam dunk business case, NOW DO IT.

      Thank you for your words of encouragement.

      Or shut the hell up with your childish 1960s space age garbage. No one is going anywhere. You are the one with your tired space rhetoric, your empty promises, your delusions about this big market for water in space and these fantasies about these fuel factories floating around a sucking void, and your conflation of these ancient ideas with "progress". You want progress? You're afraid of progress, that's why you clutch to ancient fantasies like a drowning man hanging on to a 2x4 in the Pacific.

      I forgive you for your words of anger.

      The real progress will happen down here. There's 7 billion people waiting right here for progress.

      Progress does not come to those who wait for it. It comes to those who work for it.

      No one is waiting out there for your fantasies. And for your sig, that just shows you clutch to the past. Who cares about your 15 year old TMZ crap?

      Funny that you should ask! Actually, this AC cares about my "15 year old TMZ crap", as evidenced by his query. And this was just a few hours ago! Also, for the record, my sig (well, the expression currently found in my sig) predates TMZ by roughly a decade. You have a funny way of seeing the world.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    63. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by itzly · · Score: 1

      A millenium ago, very few ships needed to cross oceans. That doesn't mean that there wasn't great benefit to be had from trying to cross them anyway.

      There was fertile ground, air and water on the other side of the ocean. Space is just empty.

      Virtually everything is out there, and we've barely snuck a peek yet.

      It's also too far. The next time there's a rainy afternoon, and you have nothing to do, check out the Tsiolkovky rocket equation, pick a destination, maximum allowed travel time, and payload mass, and calculate how much fuel (and fuel tanks) you would need to get there. Please also allow fuel for braking, and landing on the target (or at least orbiting it), and have a realistic payload mass with regards to travel time and communication with Earth.

    64. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      Drink AstroCorp Stellar Mineral Water! It's literally not of this earth, and may be older than the stars!

    65. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I cared about a possible typo from someone whose brain doesn't seem to be operating very well. It wouldn't have been possible for me to not care about information that was not in my possession at the time of not caring. You really are bizarre!

      You talk about physics but brush aside any physical argument against your childhood fantasies.

      " It comes to those who work for it."

      Great, a space Calvinist.

    66. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      There was fertile ground, air and water on the other side of the ocean. Space is just empty.

      There was plenty of fertile ground, air, and water back in Europe. Columbus wasn't in search of fertile ground, air, and water any more than today's space explorers are in search of emptiness.

      It's also too far. The next time there's a rainy afternoon, and you have nothing to do, check out the Tsiolkovky rocket equation, pick a destination, maximum allowed travel time, and payload mass, and calculate how much fuel (and fuel tanks) you would need to get there. Please also allow fuel for braking, and landing on the target (or at least orbiting it), and have a realistic payload mass with regards to travel time and communication with Earth.

      It's apparent that chemical rockets aren't going to get us very far. While they may tempt us with reasonable thrust, the specific impulse is lacking, to say the least. That makes them uniquely unsuitable for any voyage where speed is a primary concern, which it is for any destination outside the solar system. Of course, we have designs for propulsion systems that from a half century ago (that could have been built using the technology available a half century ago) that solve this problem, but political considerations have ensured that they won't be flying any time soon. It would've been 133 years to Alpha Centauri (but without slowing back down). Also, recent developments relating to the VASIMR drive and solar sails could put an even more impressive lower bound on how fast we could get to Alpha Centauri (down to ~100 years including slowdown).

      Furthermore, this really has very little to do with the argument at hand. Space is big, but so is time. Just because we're launching people into space on giant firecrackers today doesn't mean that this is the only (or the best) way to travel long distances. It's not unreasonable to suspect that if we try, we'll find better ways in due time. That we've gone from riding horses to riding giant firecrackers in the span of a few millenia suggests that in a few more millenia, we might be able to travel faster still. That all we have today is giant firecrackers is not a sound argument against working to improve the state of the art.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    67. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      I cared about a possible typo from someone whose brain doesn't seem to be operating very well. It wouldn't have been possible for me to not care about information that was not in my possession at the time of not caring. You really are bizarre!

      Keep in mind that I'm replying to an unknown number of ACs in this thread. However, I was asked who cares about my sig. I answered that question and provided the reasoning for my answer. Now you're talking about possible typos and some very awkward statement about possessing information that I can't parse quite right. I don't know what you're saying, but if you have some objection to the response I provided, I ask that you word it in a way that makes sense to me.

      You talk about physics but brush aside any physical argument against your childhood fantasies.

      Nike's slogan isn't a "physical argument", nor are the ad hominem attacks. I'm wide open to any rational arguments, though, if you care to provide them. Preferably ones that involve the known laws of physics, not metaphors about drowning.

      " It comes to those who work for it."

      Great, a space Calvinist.

      While I did lol, this seems like a good time to mention that Calvinists aren't the only ones who believe that activity (generally speaking) produces greater results than inactivity.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    68. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not if you haven't captured at least one asteroid to claim it's from.

    69. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 1

      This is way too much work. What do you say we just channel astral water?

    70. Re: But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In the future we will manufacturer in space with space materials. We must first survey and wait for the technology to be invented. This will be a fully automated 3d printing robots that also mine materials. The first companies to patient will be rich.
      Obviously sending people, especially today, will be to dangerous and costly.

    71. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      Doesn't that require a priest or shaman of some sorts?

      --
      Time to offend someone
    72. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Very well argued! Lemmie guess... Masters in Astrophysics? Its obvious you know things.

    73. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by __aaltlg1547 · · Score: 1

      You think there are qualifications for this sort of thing?

    74. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      ".. Get over it. The sooner you can free up your brain to solve real problems, the better off we all are.

      Walling off part of your brain so your precious childhood fantasies of Space 1999 don't get destroyed is just sad.

      Grow up."

      If you smash your skull open you can get some gunk out of it that's useful for greasing axles.

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    75. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      Its funny how Slashdot is such a repository of ignorance. Firstly to get the equipment out to this asteroid efficiently you are going to need nuclear rockets. Then you are going to need to mine water to use as reaction mass to move the rock - again with nuclear rockets. The most efficient method isn't electrolysis its just to make the water very hot and it cracks all by itself - the details get a bit more involved and complicated. Hydrogen is the ideal reaction mass fuel for nuclear rockets. For larger objects nuclear rockets become to weak, so we switch to pulse nuclear propulsion aka Project Orion. For even larger objects we might use the even more powerful Super Orion instead...

      BTW Your already out of date on the other materials, 3D printing and other techniques are already being developed for doing this now. There are four basic main areas - high temperature materials for building smelters, metals for various, silicon materials for building solar panels, and materials for fuels. A fifth is developing organics for making plastics and resins, etc. As for t being fantasy, I expect to see working test beds on the Moon in about ten years.

      The main impediments to nuclear tech in space and to a human future in space in general are not technical they are actually the nuclear over-regulators and the UN.. Most UN treaties are not worth the paper they are written on anyway.

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    76. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Firstly to get the equipment out to this asteroid efficiently you are going to need nuclear rockets.

      Why? Isn't it true that we've launched probes well beyond the asteroid belt without nuclear rockets? Is there a reason why we couldn't get this "equipment" out to this asteroid efficiently using a solar sail, VASIMR, or even a conventional ion thruster (all of which could be launched from Earth using a large chemical rocket)? I mean, shit, if you want to maximize efficiency, we'd launch something using pulsed nuclear propulsion, but is there a reason we can't accept lower levels of efficiency?

      Then you are going to need to mine water to use as reaction mass to move the rock - again with nuclear rockets.

      Is there a reason the aforementioned methods of propulsion cease to be viable when an asteroid is part of the payload? Or chemical rockets if high thrust is desired?

      The most efficient method isn't electrolysis its just to make the water very hot and it cracks all by itself - the details get a bit more involved and complicated.

      You haven't convinced me that your "more involved and complicated" approach is superior in the context of in situ resource exploitation, as I'd imagine reliability and maintenance concerns to override efficiency considerations.

      Hydrogen is the ideal reaction mass fuel for nuclear rockets.

      Also for chemical rockets, particularly with a convenient supply of oxidizer available. You seem hung up on nuclear rockets.

      For larger objects nuclear rockets become to weak, so we switch to pulse nuclear propulsion aka Project Orion. For even larger objects we might use the even more powerful Super Orion instead...

      How do you propose this is done? I mean, in the context of the Partial Test Ban Treaty and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (and potentially the Outer Space Treaty as well). Also, why do you feel that my suggestion of using established conventional technology to demonstrate the feasibility of asteroid mining is a display of "ignorance" when your own suggestion rests largely upon theoretical processes which have yet to be demonstrated to be viable?

      BTW Your already out of date on the other materials, 3D printing and other techniques are already being developed for doing this now.

      My what?

      There are four basic main areas - high temperature materials for building smelters, metals for various, silicon materials for building solar panels, and materials for fuels. A fifth is developing organics for making plastics and resins, etc. As for t being fantasy, I expect to see working test beds on the Moon in about ten years.

      That's cool, but again, I don't see how appealing to shit that doesn't exist yet really strengthens the case that mining asteroids is more than just something we can look forward to in some indefinite future.

      The main impediments to nuclear tech in space and to a human future in space in general are not technical they are actually the nuclear over-regulators and the UN.. Most UN treaties are not worth the paper they are written on anyway.

      Oh, I see. Your ideas, even if the theory ends up being proven out, can't actually be implemented. How practically useful.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
    77. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by lucien86 · · Score: 1

      "Why? Isn't it true that we've launched probes well beyond the asteroid belt without nuclear rockets? Is there a reason why we couldn't get this "equipment" out to this asteroid efficiently using a solar sail, VASIMR, or even a conventional ion thruster (all of which could be launched from Earth using a large chemical rocket)? I mean, shit, if you want to maximize efficiency, we'd launch something using pulsed nuclear propulsion, but is there a reason we can't accept lower levels of efficiency?"

      The basic argument about efficiency is about whether you want to get out to that asteroid in 1 or 2 years as opposed to 10 years or more, and if you want your chunk back in 10 years rather than 30 or more years. (maybe 100 years with solar sails) If a chemical rocket needs 95% of its mass to be fuel for a given trajectory, then using nuclear roughly halves that to maybe 45%. Chemical rockets have a maximum Isp of about 450 while nuclear rockets tested in the 1970's achieved about 1100. (The even more efficient gas core nuclear might theoretically achieve over 2000, and fusion would be more efficient again.)

      For larger asteroids of say 500 meters across or more pulse nuclear is actually the only method that is possible today that even looks tenable, it is also one of the few methods that looks like it could probably push rubble piles without breaking them up.

      VASMIR and Ionic thrusters can achieve even higher thrust efficiencies than nuclear but to provide enough thrust for a 100 - 200 ton vehicle using high energy trajectories either would still need to be powered by high energy nuclear reactors or something similar like high performance gas turbines - solar arrays would need to be enormously huge to provide enough power. .

      "... Oh, I see. Your ideas, even if the theory ends up being proven out, can't actually be implemented. How practically useful."

      The UN rules make all progress in space practically impossible not just using nuclear rockets. Those treaties were written by people with less understanding of space or technology than a mollusc. Also as one of the primary impediments to humanity dealing with climate change the UN is actually a threat to the whole species and the whole world would be much better off if a nuclear bomb or an asteroid were to crush it flat. Eventually (we can only hope) the politicians will realize this and we will get the future back.

      --
      Below the speed of light Special Relativity is one of the most accurate theories in physics - above the speed of light..
    78. Re:But where are the potentional profits? by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 1

      Eventually (we can only hope) the politicians will realize this and we will get the future back.

      This sums up the difference in our arguments. I advocate for the use of viable, existing technology that is not held back by political or legal restrictions, though it may not be the optimal solution from an engineering point of view. You advocate for the opposite.

      Personally, I think even an asteroid capture mission using solar sails for propulsion would accomplish its goals long before we overcome the political hurdles of nukes in space. I guess you're an optimist.

      Disclaimer: I think it's a real shame that we abandoned research into nuclear pulse propulsion. We could be doing stuff straight out of sci-fi novels today using half-century-old technology instead of struggling to repeat the Apollo program. A real shame.

      --
      Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
  2. Congress by dkman · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ... inadequate to complete the identification of 90 percent of hazardous near-Earth objects 140 meters or greater by 2020 as mandated by the law.

    This is the problem with Congress. How the hell do you make a law saying you need to identify 90% of something we can't validate at all? Who's going to say when you reach 90%? If we get clobbered by a rock it's clearly part of the 10% we didn't know, gee sorry.

    --
    I refuse to sign
    1. Re:Congress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ah the old "clobbered by a rock" space religion argument. We've been clobbered by world wars and global depressions too, where is your goal of reforming human society to prevent those things?

    2. Re:Congress by rasmusbr · · Score: 1

      Who's going to say when you reach 90%?

      You ought to be able to use physics combined with observations to come up with an approximation of the number of near-Earth asteroids of any given size. Once you know how many there are it is just a matter of counting.

      You can also observe the decline in the rate of discovery of new objects to infer how many there are in total.

    3. Re:Congress by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

      How the hell do you make a law saying you need to identify 90% of something we can't validate at all?

      It's called a survey, you systematically search a given area with instruments that can detect what you're looking for, it's not done until the survey is complete.

      If we get clobbered by a rock it's clearly part of the 10% we didn't know, gee sorry.

      Someone gives you nine lives and you're bitching about not having 10?

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    4. Re:Congress by morgauxo · · Score: 2

      Usually it's people trying to reform human society that CAUSE those things.

    5. Re:Congress by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Being clobbered by a rock is one of those low-probability-but-could-happen events, like suddenly having a new plague come at us from Africa. It behooves us to prepare for such things. Rock clobberings, on scales ranging from Chicxulub to Chelyabinsk, HAVE happened.

    6. Re:Congress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That costs order of magnitudes more, (unless you take a reductionist approach, then a few nukes could solve those issues). Low hanging fruit and all that.

    7. Re:Congress by itzly · · Score: 1

      Make that 'extremely-low-probability'... if you make a list of all the probable causes of death "being hit by an asteroid" is way down on the list, and it wouldn't warrant spending high amounts of money on.

    8. Re:Congress by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Very low probability in any given year, but inevitable in the long term, and VERY high risk. Also much cheaper to stop that a much less damaging global pandemic of a particularly virulent strain of Ebola, provided we recognize the threat soon enough.

      And it's not just "planet killers" that are worth identifying. How much damage, in dollars, do you suppose that Russian airburst meteor would have caused if it blew over NYC instead? I mean it was estimated to have caused $33 million in damage out in the Russian boonies.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    9. Re:Congress by itzly · · Score: 1

      When you're talking about inevitable in the long term, exactly what time scale are we talking about ? I'm guessing more than a few million years, because the chance to get hit in the next couple million years is still quite small. When you're talking about millions of years, there's no rush to do anything this century. Let's first worry about peak oil, peak phosphate, superbugs, food supply, water supply, climate change, resource wars, and a dozen other things that will threaten us in the next decades. When we can successfully deal with that, we may be in a better position to deal with asteroids. And if we're in a worse position, any effort you do right now will be wasted anyway.

    10. Re:Congress by dkman · · Score: 1

      That's actually a really good response.

      I get that there are ways to guesstimate how many X there are. But I think that laws should be clean cut. I'm fine with saying that "our goal is to find as many as possible" or even to say that "our goal is to find 90%", but if the law says we're to find 90% of asteroids larger than 140km within 20 years spending 300k/yr that's bullshit.

      A law, and I don't even think it should be called a law (it should be called a budget), would be better if it said we're going to spend 300k/yr for 20 years looking for asteroids larger than 140km. period. Leave the speculative 90% manure out of it.

      Then the advocate could say that it's not enough money to find as many as he'd like, but he wouldn't be saying we're not going to live up to the law.

      --
      I refuse to sign
    11. Re:Congress by crunchygranola · · Score: 1

      ... inadequate to complete the identification of 90 percent of hazardous near-Earth objects 140 meters or greater by 2020 as mandated by the law.

      This is the problem with Congress. How the hell do you make a law saying you need to identify 90% of something we can't validate at all? Who's going to say when you reach 90%?...

      There is a field of mathematics that has this problem firmly under control. It is called "statistics". Constructing a procedure for making this determination would be a reasonable homework assignment in a statistics class, it is no more difficult than that.

      --
      Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
    12. Re:Congress by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Who's going to say when you reach 90%?

      Statistical analysis - the most likely number remaining is a function of the rate of discovery of new objects. As the rate drops, so does the likely number of remaining undiscovered objects.

    13. Re:Congress by Immerman · · Score: 1

      For "dinosaur killers" I think you're right - impacts are somewhere in the tens to hundreds of millions of years apart. Of course at 60-someodd million years since the last one we're probably about due for another.

      For less devastating asteroids - well as I recall it's estimated that relatively tiny (20m) "Russian airburst" class meteors impact the Earth at a rate of a few every year, though it might have been one every few years, I forget. The vast majority though end up hitting even less inhabited regions and/or coming in at steeper angles so that they don't put on quite such a show. A bit of bad luck though and one could easily do billions of dollars worth of damages.

      And then there's the ones that we should maybe be really worried about: A relatively small asteroid in the range of a few hundred meters to a few kilometers across probably wouldn't do any serious long term damage, it might not even leave a big enough crater to be easily identified after a few thousand years, but it could potentially throw enough dust into the atmosphere to cause a global "nuclear winter" for months at least, crippling that years food crop, and since the world food reserves are currently only sufficient for about 74 days that would likely causing mass starvation and riots, killing millions or billions of people and causing untold trillions of dollars in damages. And we have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how common such impacts might be. There don't appear to have been any on that scale in the last couple thousand years (at least on land), but is that normal or a statistical fluke? We just don't know. And we won't know until we look to see what's actually out there.

      Meanwhile looking is cheap - the suggested $200 million budget is less than was spent in for an average 7 hours of the Iraq war.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    14. Re:Congress by craighansen · · Score: 1

      This isn't the problem - detecting these asteriods is a pretty well-understood problem, and the B612 / Sentinel project has a good plan to complete it - but it's not being funded by the Government - it's being run by a non-profit organization. The law is essentially an "unfunded mandate," and I'd guess that there's no particular penalty for not complying with it. However, the Sentinel project likely needs about $30M/year, not $300k/year, but that's still much less than the $200M/year that this chap suggests that NASA would have to spend. I find the disparity pretty credible, as NASA has all the typical government red-tape and home-district stuff to deal with, where the Sentinel project is tightly focused on the objective.

  3. my thoughts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    A toilet big enough to flush $200 million per year. We should probably fund a study to create one.

  4. Makes sense by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

    It makes total sense. Why fund a redirect project if you're not even aware of anything that needs redirecting? And if you put the money into the survey and actually find something that needs redirecting, I doubt you'd have a problem getting a budget for it. ;-)

    1. Re:Makes sense by morgauxo · · Score: 1

      I don't think keeping it from hitting the Earth was the only reason they wanted to redirect an asteroid. They want to get it to lunar orbit so that they can have more time to do more detailed science on it. It's also a big technology goal to keep us developing.

  5. Completely Missed the Point by Egg+Sniper · · Score: 5, Informative

    Perhaps intentionally, the blurb above completely ignores that Prof. Biznel's entire point is that we should be going after the asteroids that already pass close by. He wants us to play with these things, he just thinks it's a waste of money to send a probe far away to grab one when we could much more cheaply grab one that's already passing through. In order to have a decent chance of planning such a mission, we need to have a more complete survey of the asteroids that do pass close by which, he mentions, is already mandated by law (and we're not going to reach that goal at current spending levels).

    1. Re:Completely Missed the Point by green+is+the+enemy · · Score: 2

      I think the cost is in delta-v, not distance. The asteroid survey would probably not make the asteroid redirect mission cheaper, but may identify an asteroid with a more interesting composition.

    2. Re:Completely Missed the Point by mbone · · Score: 2

      And the NASA HEMD guys say that to do that, you first need to have a deep space flight "with training wheels," i.e., one to something like high retrograde lunar orbit (far away to be serious, and actually test the deep space parts of the mission, but close enough you can meaningfully abort) and that, in practice, to both get the money for the test AND to make the test more realistic, the astronauts need some goal for spending 2 weeks orbiting outside the Moon, and the ARM provides that.

      If the Earth had a well placed "mini-Moon" at the present, we could go to that, but as of right now, we don't appear to.

  6. No Community Consensus Here by mbone · · Score: 3, Informative

    He has been saying this for a while, most recently (to my knowledge) at the recent Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) meeting in DC. I was there and have to say that the community (at least, the sample of the community in that room) did not come to even rough consensus on his proposal, and was in fact split roughly 50-50. There is, however, a pretty strong consensus on the funding of a asteroid survey mission, an infrared telescope on an interior orbit to the Earth to find most of the possible "city-buster" NEA. This is pretty much what the B612 foundation is proposing, but they haven't raised the money yet, nor is on any NASA funding plans.

    My own personal opinion, FWIW, is that Binzel is wrong and that the ARM mission is a first good step to Mars.

    1. Re:No Community Consensus Here by ks*nut · · Score: 0

      ARM has nothing to do with going to Mars other than as an excuse to build a really big rocket. Elon Musk is planning to go to Mars and I bet he will do it cheaper and more safely than NASA. Asteroid redirect is nothing more than a very expensive stunt.

    2. Re:No Community Consensus Here by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What i don't get is why his project (which doesn't necessarily sound like a bad idea) has to be funded by the money from another project he personally disagrees with. How about both projects get up and running and we can all be better off. I want the construction of space vessels to begin and grabbing asteroids seems like a huge step in that direction. Looking for dangerous asteroids that could kill millions (or worse) also sounds very important (though on the time scales such events occur you could literally be millions of years ahead of the game and all the money and time spent could be a complete waste for everyone involved if saving the human race is your justification). He seems to be looking at money spent on an asteroid project as money that could have been spent on HIS asteroid project. Meanwhile the money that is being spent is ultimately being spent to reduce further expenses on future space projects, maybe even his if he considered the potential merits of this mission he's seeking to squash.

    3. Re:No Community Consensus Here by mbone · · Score: 1

      He seems to be looking at money spent on an asteroid project as money that could have been spent on HIS asteroid project. Meanwhile the money that is being spent is ultimately being spent to reduce further expenses on future space projects, maybe even his if he considered the potential merits of this mission he's seeking to squash.

      I am not 100% sure that he is, but you are correct, he gives that impression. What is (IMHO) much more likely is that, if his ideas carry the day, ARM will be canceled and nothing will take its place and (with all due respect to Elon Musk) we will be set back another decade on going to Mars.

      Note, however, that the asteroid survey mission could not be finished in time to provide a target for the first stage of ARM (or, to put it the other way, the ARM timetable does not allow for starting and running a survey mission from scratch). That means that HEMD (human space flight) is lukewarm on the survey mission and is not going to pay for it. Now, I regard that as a mistake, but I understand it.

      Also, note that $ 200 million will not pay for a survey mission. That would be more like discovery class, i.e., $ 500 million or more.

    4. Re:No Community Consensus Here by craighansen · · Score: 1

      $500 million total would fully fund the B612 / Sentinel proposal. I'm not at all sure how far they're getting on private donations to fund it so far - but I'd like to know.

  7. Maybe he should donate his time by Overzeetop · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    If he's so concerned, perhaps he should donate his time and form a non-profit organization which solicits donations to do the survey. It's how the republicans have suggested we deal with homelessness, child nutrition, mental health, and the arts. Why should his pet project/idea get a larger share of federal dollars?

    --
    Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
    1. Re:Maybe he should donate his time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If he's so concerned, perhaps he should donate his time and form a non-profit organization which solicits donations to do the survey. It's how the republicans have suggested we deal with homelessness, child nutrition, mental health, and the arts. Why should his pet project/idea get a larger share of federal dollars?

      poor child nutrition does not have the potential to wipe out all of humanity

  8. How dare he threaten NASA pork? by Squidlips · · Score: 3

    The Asteroid re-direct mission is a pork mission to push money for more pointless manned missions. Binzel is 100% correct; the money would be much better spent on robotic missions, but, alas, NASA is run by pilots and beholden to the manned mission lobby.

    1. Re:How dare he threaten NASA pork? by rolias · · Score: 1
      Binzel's proposing sending astronauts to asteroids that pass very close to Earth, not just robotic missions - which I agree with. From the source article:

      Once humans can reach one asteroid in its native orbit, the gateway is opened such that hundreds (if not thousands) more will be accessible, enabling a steady programme of exploration to be unrolled in the late 2020s and 2030s.

  9. Don't start with the survey by Guspaz · · Score: 1

    If you build a successful asteroid mining industry, then you can be damned sure that there's going to be a ton of effort put into surveying as many asteroids as possible. It will necessarily follow.

  10. Bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is just another government program funded by your tax dollars that will go "Dark". Meaning their original mission will be fulfilled to the fullest and even taken beyond the original for scientific discovery only to be known by dark agencies and the shadow military government. This MIT professor is just on the military industrial complex's/Cia's payroll.

    It happens all the time, a project is announced dead, when in fact its fully alive, just not available to the people who funded it (the public).

    Dirty shit huh?

  11. Why by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sending humans to sample/mine asteroids?
    Better done robots that don't breath/sleep/eat/fight with each others.

  12. Sentinel private program at fraction of NASA cost by craighansen · · Score: 1

    The B612 / Sentinel program (see sentinel.org) proposes to complete the asteroid survey mission at a total cost of under $500 million, and is currently collecting private donations to launch and complete the misson. This proposed cost is a tiny fraction of the $200 million per year that this MIT prof is suggesting is required.

    So here's a no-brainer proposal - divert a fraction of the NASA mission cost so that the Sentinel mission can be completed without blowing a giant hole in NASA's bloated budget. The Sentinel mission isn't completely independent of NASA in any case, as it depends on usage of the NASA deep space communication network.

    Unfortunately, NASA money would come with giant strings attached to it, and those strings would likely make the Sentinel mission get bloated up toward the NASA mission cost. The Sentinel program is proposing to control costs by for example, having a private company, Ball Aerospace, built the satellite in a manner that they already have expertise to complete. This isn't the way public programs get run - such as making sure it gets built in some powerful politician's home district or include some sexy new technology that will bloat the cost.

  13. But where are the potentional profits? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So find the asteroids that are going to kill us early enough and mine them until they are small enough to not be a threat.