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How Google Can Get the Flu Right
An anonymous reader writes Google Flu Trends was developed in 2009 to improve forecasts of flu levels in the U.S. by utilising Google search data. This early example showcased the potential which lies in the exploitation of human digital traces which all of us leave behind by using online services. The rise of Google Flu Trends was only stopped when the service dramatically overestimated the number of flu incidences recently. The fall raised questions about the value of online data for predictions in general. However, a study published yesterday demonstrates that it is not only about data but also about the adaptiveness of algorithms used for predictions. Scientists combined historic flu levels as reported by the CDC with Google Flu Trends data using an algorithmic framework which is able to adapt to changes in human search behaviour. Their results show that Google Flu Trends data sets significantly add information to the forecasts of current flu levels.
timothy, i wish so badly to have a butt fucking orgy with you and the frequent contributor bennett haselton. I want my tiny tadpoles from my fetid pregnancy rod permeating the lining of your anus rectum hole.
What say you?
...to come with a good anti-virus joke.
There are 2 types of people in the world - those who understand decimal and those who don't.
we will see if this works next fall
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
Obama's defined competence down so far it's be easy for Google to "get this right". They just have to do better than Obama has with Ebola.
Gotta love how Obama gets "angry" and "frustrated" and fuckups from his own damn government.
Enjoy Barack Obama's Legacy America.
This is a very indirect way to measure and thus predict flu outbreaks. There are many things that could prompt people to search for and otherwise discuss the flu, beyond a person or their family actually having the flu. All it would take is a few major news sources to make mention of the flu, and there's a good chance there would be a surge in people searching for terms related to the flu. Further, other illnesses could be going around that have some flu-like symptoms which would also increase search results for the flu. Can't we just get this information from healthcare providers or insurance companies directly? (although the latter is probably charging an arm and leg for that information)
Better known as 318230.
RTFA is too risky given my rough calculations...
I'm tired of people losing their shit over the flu. This didn't happen a decade ago. Unless you're elderly, an infant, or severely compromised, getting the flu is not a big fucking deal. You throw up a couple times and feel like shit for 24-48 hours *IF* you even get it. And then you move the fuck on with your life.
People act like if you don't get a flu shot, it's going to be the end of the world and you're going to die a miserable death.
The other problem I have with the AC's post is that he describes a bad cold, not a case of the flue, which lasts at least 72 hours...
Per the CDC you're infectious a day before the symptoms hit, and remain infectious for 5-7 days after that.
So if you really have the flue, you should stay home a couple days longer even if you're feeling better after 3...
I don't read AC A human right
As far as I'm concerned.
Isn't it more likely this would measure "hypochondriac" activity?
I mean if people in a region get all worked up by something like Ebola and searching for TamaFlu you wouldn't conclude they all had Ebola would you?
Microsoft's recent diatribe about why they hid all the Windows controls on Windows 8 based on "We're Principled, Not stubborn!" shrieked of literal lunacy.
Quoting "We Have Telemetry!" and not challenging your own preconceptions before coming to Conclusions is the "Stuff" of "DotCom" bubbles and "Wallstreet Derivatives" in Microsoft's case in particular.. Railing the purchase of Nokia right before his big send off.. kind of drove Microsoft right up to Emu Point Cliff.. now they're loosing $1 Billion a year from Samsung, lost $1 Billion on Surface and other Hardware lunacy.. and could looks Billions more in Android Licensing rights.. simply because the last CEO wanted that Babble in the Window called "Nokia" to keep cranking out Ego Zunes .
You're often sick for a week, pretty commonly you get a secondary bacterial infection (like pneumonia or a sinus infection), and then you're sick for more than a week, and you might well be left with a lingering cough.
And BTW, "throw up a couple times" is NOT that common a flu symptom, though it CAN happen with flu. Typical symptoms are:
body aches
fever/chills
coughing
runny nose, sore throat, headach, pain around eyes
Vomiting/diarrhea is more common amongst children.
--PM
“Up to 90% of the total decline in the death rate of children between 1860-1965 because of whooping cough, scarlet fever, diphtheria, and measles occurred before the introduction of immunisations and antibiotics.” Dr. Archie Kalokerinos, M.D. PhD
Are vaccinations safe and effective?
Historical trends show that deaths caused by childhood illnesses had already declined as much as 90% before vaccine programs were ever initiated. Evidence indicates that an improved standard of living, better nutrition, and increased sanitation, caused this drop in disease, not vaccines.
There is no shown benefit of vaccinated over unvaccinated people.
The CDC reported a measles outbreak in a 100% documented vaccinated population. Studies show that children who received vaccinations were 14 times more likely to become learning disabled and develop asthma. There is virtually no asthma in unvaccinated children. Unvaccinated people are healthier, have higher disease resistance, and recover more rapidly from illness. There have never been any saftey studies done on vaccines that would meet the appropriate criteria. Donald Meserlian P.E. VOSI Chairman
Vaccine Injuries are Grossly underreported. There are many vaccine related deaths every year.
It's a puff piece for Google. I know most people can't remember anything beyond what Fox told this this morning, but come on, every bloody flu season we get this crap about how Google can save us. Surely it's time to go back to twitter as the source for all scientific data?
It looks like they're predicting a fairly small flu season this year, which seems on track with reality considering Ebola has the same symptoms as the flu early on and everyone is paranoid as shit about Ebola and taking precautions for both themselves and others. This is a bit anecdotal but usually when people get the flu they just keep going to work but this year two cooworkers actually called out sick until they were completely better, quipping about Ebola via email.
Or what was it again. Is google going to guess the length of the nose of the emperor of China next, based on search items? And has it got the flu? Look , that there's a good correlation is clear, but the reliability of the results is very low. Next the NSA will be using those tools in order to find out how much they can get away with. Or wait, they already made their minds up about that.