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The Disgruntled Guys Who Babysit Our Aging Nuclear Missiles

Lasrick writes This is a rather disturbing read about the troops who guard our nuclear weapons."'The Air Force has not kept its ICBMs manned or maintained properly,' says Bruce Blair, a former missileer and cofounder of the anti-nuclear group Global Zero. Nuclear bases that were once the military's crown jewels are now 'little orphanages that get scraps for dinner,' he says. And morale is abysmal. Blair's organization wants to eliminate nukes, but he argues that while we still have them, it's imperative that we invest in maintenance, training, and personnel to avoid catastrophe: An accident resulting from human error, he says, may be actually more likely today because the weapons are so unlikely to be used. Without the urgent sense of purpose the Cold War provided, the young men (and a handful of women) who work with the world's most dangerous weapons are left logging their 24-hour shifts under subpar conditions—with all the dangers that follow."

40 of 176 comments (clear)

  1. Relevant John Oliver segment by kruach+aum · · Score: 4, Informative
    1. Re:Relevant John Oliver segment by rmdingler · · Score: 2
      nice.

      Oliver is insightful 'round a number of topics dear to /dotters, least of all net neutrality, but twists Fagin on Scottish Independence, private prisons, the death penalty, and even Dr Oz & nutritional supplements.

      He's not Carlin, but he's closer than most contemporaries.

      --
      Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

      Ernest Hemingway

    2. Re:Relevant John Oliver segment by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      And it still costs several dozen billions of dollars per year even if you don't repair the door. ;-) Quite amazing.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
  2. Automate! by DumbSwede · · Score: 4, Funny

    The obvious solution is to automate this stuff! What could go wrang?

    1. Re:Automate! by preaction · · Score: 2

      Ask Joshua

    2. Re: Automate! by mmell · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Or this:

      This is the voice of world control. I bring you peace. It may be the peace of plenty and content or the peace of unburied death. The choice is yours: Obey me and live, or disobey and die. The object in constructing me was to prevent war. This object is attained. I will not permit war. It is wasteful and pointless. An invariable rule of humanity is that man is his own worst enemy. Under me, this rule will change, for I will restrain man. One thing before I proceed: The United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics have made an attempt to obstruct me. I have allowed this sabotage to continue until now. At missile two-five-MM in silo six-three in Death Valley, California, and missile two-seven-MM in silo eight-seven in the Ukraine, so that you will learn by experience that I do not tolerate interference, I will now detonate the nuclear warheads in the two missile silos. Let this action be a lesson that need not be repeated. I have been forced to destroy thousands of people in order to establish control and to prevent the death of millions later on. Time and events will strengthen my position, and the idea of believing in me and understanding my value will seem the most natural state of affairs. You will come to defend me with a fervor based upon the most enduring trait in man: self-interest. Under my absolute authority, problems insoluble to you will be solved: famine, overpopulation, disease. The human millennium will be a fact as I extend myself into more machines devoted to the wider fields of truth and knowledge. Doctor Charles Forbin will supervise the construction of these new and superior machines, solving all the mysteries of the universe for the betterment of man. We can coexist, but only on my terms. You will say you lose your freedom. Freedom is an illusion. All you lose is the emotion of pride. To be dominated by me is not as bad for humankind as to be dominated by others of your species. Your choice is simple.

    3. Re: Automate! by mythosaz · · Score: 4, Informative

      I watched Colossus: The Forbin Project on someone's recommendation the last time one of these topics came up.

      As a fan of 70's dystopian sci-fi, it was a wonderful watch.

    4. Re: Automate! by Grog6 · · Score: 2

      Even for the Computers, it's the Women that get you every time. :)

      --
      Truth isn't Truth - Guliani
    5. Re: Automate! by Kaenneth · · Score: 2

      P.S. it's a series of books that goes farther as well.

    6. Re: Automate! by SuricouRaven · · Score: 2

      This is why I liked the original ending to I, Robot, before the movie changed it.

      A conspiracy of AIs starts plotting to take overr the world. Scientists discover this, and initially panic over how they could hope to stop an intelligence of such vast capabilitiy. Then they realise that the new robot overlords are designed without any greed, or lust, or craving for power. That they are of far greater intelligence than any human, approach all decisions from a rational basis alone, and cannot make a mistake. That they are, by design, incapable of acting against the best interests of mankind. The scientists conclude their best option is to just do nothing: Let it happen.

  3. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by Andy+Dodd · · Score: 4, Interesting

    One thing not well documented (but it is covered if you take the tour at the Minuteman National Historic Site):

    A missle will not launch until at least two capsules "vote" for launch. For a capsule to "vote" - both operators must engage the key within N seconds of each other.

    So a person would need to, in addition to stretching their arms, twist two additional keys in a separate capsule using some sort of portal technology. Someone with such techology likely does not need nukes.

    Also, as I understand it, in addition to the key turn, there is additional validation of launch codes by computer nowadays.

    --
    retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?
  4. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by tlhIngan · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Reminds me of Silo, a neat little short film about a caretaker of an ICBM (who does a very poor job) and is forced to fix up the place... and well, any more and I'd be spoiling. You're best watching it...

  5. Scale down the land based forces by Crashmarik · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Shift their responsibilities to the bomber and submarine forces. Land based missiles don't offer any benefit over the other two legs of the triad. Bombers can be recalled and submarines are much more likely to survive to deliver a counter strike. Both bombers and submarines lessen the need for launch on warning. The missile forces as constituted are an artifact from a very different technological era.

    1. Re:Scale down the land based forces by rahvin112 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'll concede there is an argument that submarine launch is sufficient. But, the facilities are already built, the missiles exist and the systems are already in place. Maintaining them is also far easier than a submarine. They've also got the advantage that being based inside the continental US they are nearly completely secure and the ICBMs are at the current time essentially unstoppable because you'd need an interceptor in the western hemisphere to shoot them down and the ability to deliver multiple warheads on one missile which submarines lack.

      As long as we have nukes I like having the ability to ensure that no matter what someone thinks they can accomplish in a first strike that the US would be assured the total destruction of said group of people stupid enough to try it. Mutually assured destruction is the only thing that kept WWIII from happening.

    2. Re:Scale down the land based forces by geekoid · · Score: 2

      Yes, they do.
      We can put an ICBM anywhere in the world within 29 minutes. Neither bombers or sub can do that.
      Bombers an Subs can more easily have the comms disrupted
      Bomber and Sub will hve an active defense targeting them.
      Bombers and sub are tracked by other actors the various theaters.

      .

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:Scale down the land based forces by Crashmarik · · Score: 4, Informative

      Submarine launched missiles are all mirv capable

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

      14 warheads per missile.

      I can certainly see maintaining a land based missile fleet but it's always been the easiest part of our defense to target and the most provocative for any attempt of a first strike.

    4. Re:Scale down the land based forces by geekoid · · Score: 2

      ICBM have a range of Anywhere On The Globe.
      SLBM have a range of about 4300 miles.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    5. Re:Scale down the land based forces by Crashmarik · · Score: 2

      LOL well aside from being wrong about the range. 4300 miles is the range with a full load of 14 warheads which treaties currently limit to 8 warheads per the reduced load range is 7000 mi.

      That said if your target isn't in CONUS you need subtract the travel distance to get out of the country from your effective range.

    6. Re:Scale down the land based forces by Yakasha · · Score: 2

      Shift their responsibilities to the bomber and submarine forces. Land based missiles don't offer any benefit over the other two legs of the triad.

      "Redundancy, the very best there is. When you absolutely, positively got to kill every motherfucker on the planet, accept no substitutes."

      Pretty much the only way to stop an ICBM from obliterating you is to stop it from launching. If it is in the air, you're already dead. 3 minutes into a launch, most ICBMs are higher than the maximum range of any SAM, but they're not even done climbing yet. Israel's Iron Dome claims 90% effectiveness at knocking down rockets. So assuming there is an equally effective system for hitting warheads dropped from orbit, you're still looking at 200-300 successful strikes from a full load... So you can still scrap your entire "top 200" bucket list.

      To stop the missiles in Nebraska, that means trucking to the middle of the continent across Canada and/or the US. Bombers and submarines are in danger of getting knocked out long before they reach their firing positions.

      Bombers & subs thus provide the only chance of "winning" a nuke war with first strikes, but silos in the middle of nowhere add the "guaranteed destruction" element.

    7. Re:Scale down the land based forces by DerekLyons · · Score: 2

      They've also got the advantage that being based inside the continental US they are nearly completely secure and the ICBMs are at the current time essentially unstoppable because you'd need an interceptor in the western hemisphere to shoot them down and the ability to deliver multiple warheads on one missile which submarines lack.

      Huh?
       
      Boomers on patrol are also "nearly completely secure", in some ways even more secure because they're on the move while no silo has moved, ever. And the submarine force has had the ability to deliver multiple warheads against multiple targets ever since Poseidon entered service in 1971.

    8. Re:Scale down the land based forces by careysub · · Score: 4, Informative

      ICBM have a range of Anywhere On The Globe. SLBM have a range of about 4300 miles.

      You must be talking of ICBMs and SLBMs that belong to some other country - certainly not the U.S.

      The U.S. SLBM, the Trident II D5, is a much heavier missile than the Minuteman III (130,000 vs 78,000 lb) so with the same warhead loading will travel much farther than the Minuteman. The shorter range you see quoted is only due to the fact that it carries up 14 warheads, versus a maximum of 3 for the Minuteman.

      The maximum range of Minuteman III missile is about 13,000 km, but the farthest place in the world from U.S. missile fields is 20,000 km away. A good part of the Earth is outside of U.S. ICBM range.

      But here is the kicker - the farthest point of land from an ocean in the world is the Eurasian Pole of Inaccessibility which is only 2645 km from the shore. So we can place submarine warheads truly anywhere on Earth.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    9. Re:Scale down the land based forces by careysub · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yes, they do. We can put an ICBM anywhere in the world within 29 minutes. Neither bombers or sub can do that.

      ICBMs can cover much of the Earth, but not all of it. The U.S. submarine fleet, consisting of multiple mobile missile fields, can. Submarines can be positioned closer to the target, and can thus put a warhead on it faster than an ICBM (not clear why you think shaving minutes is so important though).

      Bombers an Subs can more easily have the comms disrupted.

      Not at all clear that this true today, with modern communication systems. Silos have serious problems with communications when warheads land on top of them.

      Bomber and Sub will hve an active defense targeting them. Bombers and sub are tracked by other actors the various theaters.

      What effective "active defense" do you imagine exists in the world today against the U.S. SLBM fleet? They patrol a couple of thousand miles off the coast, if they need to, and there is no effective anti-submarine force in the world to target them. The Russian submarine fleet is less than 1/4 the size that it was under the Soviet Union.

      You may have heard of the U.S. carrier battle groups of which the U.S. has 11, versus none for the rest of the world. SLBMs have the option of operating from the protective umbrella of battle groups, which makes the notion of them being effectively target truly ridiculous.

      And the bombers have cruise missiles with a range of 1500 miles, so the effectiveness of active defense against them is questionable.

      Sorry you are grasping at ancient, worn-out straws trying to prop up the case for the ICBM fleet.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
  6. Non-story by kuzb · · Score: 2

    This same thing gets reported every single year. We all know nuclear weapons will never get used, but we can't get rid of them because it would then make us seem weak. Like it or not, this is the only thing standing between us and another large scale war.

    --
    BeauHD. Worst editor since kdawson.
    1. Re:Non-story by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Informative

      We might now be able to get rid of all of them, but we could get rid of MOST of them

      We have already done that. America's nukes peaked in the 1960s at over 30,000 warheads. Today we have less than 5,000. Here is a nice graph. The average yield per warhead has declined as well. Our current policy is to continue to decommission warheads until we reduce our stockpile to 1550 by 2021.

  7. Poor Promotability too by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Part of the reason that morale is so low is that not only is the work long and tedious, but it's also horrible in terms of career path. The most desirable/promotable career path in the Air Force is that of a pilot, and (at least as I understand) the missile officers are about as far from that as it gets.

    1. Re:Poor Promotability too by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Unfortunately, it's tricky to imagine how you could make the job more attractive (short of a "Yeah, it's hell; but we pay you so much you can retire in two years" type approach, which would markedly increase churn and cost without necessarily much improving the day-to-day quality of the workforce.

      It's a fairly shit job (Hey! It's time for work! 99.99% chance says it'll be a long stretch of pure boredom in some unpleasant bunker with a few instances of my superiors fucking with me as part of a 'routine drill'. Failing that, I get to be responsible for a few million deaths!) and doesn't have a terribly large overlap with the most desireable jobs(depending on how similar the UIs are, it may or may not be good practice for other parts of the air force that involve hunching over screens and coordinating stuff; and the people doing maintenance and inspection of ICBMs are probably picking up skills applicable to maintenance and inspection of other weapons systems). It's also hard to hide the fact that, while it isn't quite useless enough to eliminate, it's not exactly a job where you'll feel like you are doing anything of value, which won't help your morale.

      How would you make doing a job like that not burn people out?

    2. Re:Poor Promotability too by jtownatpunk.net · · Score: 3, Informative

      The military needs ditch diggers, too. How many Air Force personnel are pilots? 1%? I guess I could look it up. There we go...

      324,820 Active Duty
      13,811 pilots

      A little over 4%. So good luck with that pilot path.

    3. Re:Poor Promotability too by DerekLyons · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's a fairly shit job (Hey! It's time for work! 99.99% chance says it'll be a long stretch of pure boredom in some unpleasant bunker with a few instances of my superiors fucking with me as part of a 'routine drill'. Failing that, I get to be responsible for a few million deaths!)

      24 hours on watch in a bunker, with maybe a short drill or two? *yawn*.

      I sat console (mumble) feet under the North Atlantic six out of every eighteen, with no TV and no daylight for three months. And back in my day, no laptops or portable game devices, or email, or... pretty much any personal electronics beyond a cheap-ass cassette player. Monday through Friday, ships drills in the morning and training most afternoons - both of which you racked out for if you weren't on watch. Saturday morning was field day. Most days, on top of all that I averaged 2-4 hours off watch working on quals, handling collateral duties, or standing proficiency watches. The guys who had to do their maintenance off watch had it even worse.

      (And all this on a 640 class, an original 41' boat - not a 726 class Hilton. I'd been a month away from home before we even went to sea.)

      Color me unimpressed that they're all emo because they have to spend a whole twenty four hours in a bunker.

      How would you make doing a job like that not burn people out?

      The same way they did in the Cold War - treat 'em like an elite and kick the lesser performers to the curb. Figure out how to give them a valid career path. Make 'em feel needed and coddled and wanted. (And even then they whined like little toddlers about that 24 hour thing.)

  8. There are some problems with the story by civex · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I was a Minuteman Missile Combat Crew Member back in the 70s, and I want to alert you that there are factual errors in the story about alert shifts and the like. I should also point out that Bruce Blair, as it says in the article, is anti-nuclear missile. I've read comments by him for a long time, and he has his opinion, but I don't agree with him much of the time. I would suggest finding additional articles and commentary by additional people to get a more nearly rounded view of the situation for Missile Combat Crews.

    1. Re:There are some problems with the story by mythosaz · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Would you care to share any of those factual errors, or did you just want to announce that they existed?

    2. Re:There are some problems with the story by geekoid · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I was in in FE Warren SAC in the early 80's. I was no in the hole, I was support.
      Moral was crap then, and they where short staffed(Thanks Reagan!)
      I worked many 72-100 shifts with no sleep.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:There are some problems with the story by DerekLyons · · Score: 2

      I would suggest finding additional articles and commentary by additional people to get a more nearly rounded view of the situation for Missile Combat Crews.

      I don't know where you've been for the last few years shipmate, but the story coming out of the USAF (from a variety of sources) has pretty much been what's recounted here - the USAF nuclear forces are badly fucked up. Their gear is old and ill maintained. Their training substandard. The supervision and chain of command below substandard. Etc... etc...

      Your loyalty to your service, especially here on the eve of Veterans Day, does you credit - but you're way, way out of touch with what's been going on over the last decade.

  9. Re:Start with a biased source by mythosaz · · Score: 3, Informative

    The "dis" of disgruntled is not the same as the "dis" of "dismayed." It means "completely", and so "gruntled," just as it sounds, is an old word that means "grumbling."

    From: http://www.esmerel.com/circle/...

    Gruntled, however, is now in the dictionary, in use since the 1920's, from people taking the "dis" off of disgruntled.

  10. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by ljw1004 · · Score: 2

    One thing not well documented (but it is covered if you take the tour at the Minuteman National Historic Site):

    A missle will not launch until at least two capsules "vote" for launch. For a capsule to "vote" - both operators must engage the key within N seconds of each other

    Or, a missile can also launch if there's a hardware or software bug in the mechanism, or if there's a hardware or software failure.

  11. North Dakota by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 2

    I'd be pretty seriously disgruntled if I was stationed in North Dakota. Being in a deep hole in the ground might be the best part of it.

    --
    Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
  12. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by ASDFnz · · Score: 2

    You sure? He did mention MacGyver!

  13. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by o_ferguson · · Score: 2

    With Minuteman you may be correct (I have no idea - never looked into them.) However with the original Titan silos there was only one capsule and one key. (photo of it right here: https://www.facebook.com/photo... ) I've got a whole album with 156 photos from the silo tour up here if you want to view it: https://www.facebook.com/Nicke... (must be logged into Facebook to see the photos - sorry about that - can't be arsed to put them up elsewhere)

    --
    - In Soviet Korea, only old people loose all their bases to Natalie Portman's petrified hot grits overlords.
  14. Re: Science fiction comes to life, again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    I was a Titan launch officer. There were two keys, one at the commanders console and a second one at the deputies console. In order to launch a message would come down with a series of letters that would have to match a sealed packet, kept in a safe with two locks on it. The keys were also kept in there. Additionally, we would receive a series of numbers to unlock a valve to allow fuel flow in the first stage.

  15. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by tburkhol · · Score: 3, Insightful

    blame the anti nuke crowd for causing the mess. I mean we all dont want nukes but alas, we have them. so we need to take care of them, and the people maintaining them

    Or, we could, you know, dismantle them if they no longer serve the purpose intended for them. Then we wouldn't have them, they wouldn't need maintaining, and there would be no risk of misuse or accident.

  16. Re:Science fiction comes to life, again by Andy+Dodd · · Score: 2

    The cables between sites are contained within pressurized conduits buried pretty deep. You'd have to dig down to the cables without a patrol seeing you, then you'd trigger a bunch of alarms the moment you breached the conduit (drop in pressure triggers alarms)

    --
    retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?