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Machine Learning Used To Predict Military Suicides
HughPickens.com (3830033) writes David Wagner writes that a predictive computer model using machine learning methods is helping to identify soldiers in the United States Army most likely to commit suicide. Computers combed through data on more than 40,000 soldiers who'd been hospitalized for mental health problems looking at 421 variables on each soldier drawn from 38 military data systems. Using a method known as "machine learning," the researchers identified roughly two dozen factors that are most important in predicting soldiers most likely to commit suicide. The soldiers most likely to take their own lives were men with past suicidal behavior and a history of psychiatric disorders and criminal offenses, including weapons possession and verbal assaults. Soldiers with hearing loss also faced heightened risk — a strong indicator that they had suffered a head injury. So did enlisting in the Army after age 27, most likely because those soldiers had already experienced trouble finding their way in life. "There's this group that comes to the Army later in life — they're smart, they have skills, they tend not to be married and they have no career or have left a career to join," Dr. Kessler said. "We don't know why they should be at higher risk, but they appear to be."
Murray Stein, co-author of the new study, found that among soldiers recently discharged from psychiatric hospitals, more than half of suicides were committed by just five percent of patients. "The most impressive thing is that they identified this high-risk group in the hospital, and by just focusing on one in 20 of them, you're really dramatically improving your ability to predict," says Dr. Mark Olfson, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University who was not involved in the study. "Clinicians don't do a very good job predicting suicide risk, even though we think we do."
Murray Stein, co-author of the new study, found that among soldiers recently discharged from psychiatric hospitals, more than half of suicides were committed by just five percent of patients. "The most impressive thing is that they identified this high-risk group in the hospital, and by just focusing on one in 20 of them, you're really dramatically improving your ability to predict," says Dr. Mark Olfson, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University who was not involved in the study. "Clinicians don't do a very good job predicting suicide risk, even though we think we do."
"...more than half of suicides were committed by just five percent of patients."
The proportion that weren't committed by patients are referred to as "homicides".
Political debates have me rolling my eyes so much I think I got optical whiplash. I should sue. - Foamy The Squirrel
If "more than half of suicides were committed by just five percent of patients", then all the suicides were committed by just ten percent of patients. Assuming at most one suicide per patient.
Why doesn't machine learning predict suicides any longer?
Stop speaking of machine learning as if it's a new kind of black magic. I know it sounds better than "using a mathematical algorithm" or "performed statistical analysis", but to me it sounds as ridiculous as the "quantum whatever" of the 90's. Seriously, ML is being hyped beyond reasonable.
Video of some good progressive thrash music
Some of the factors associated with higher risk were expected, like previous suicide attempts, a history of using weapons and symptoms of severe traumatic brain injury, such as hearing loss. Others were less so, like a higher I.Q., and being older than 26 at enlistment.
How to prevent many military suicides: ask your soldiers to kill other human beings and endure the horrors of war only for purposes of legitimate defense against a foreign nation that actually initiated hostilities without any sort of provocation. See that would be the difference between heroic defenders and murderers. Most people are not sociopaths and have a hard time living with knowing they murdered a bunch of people for no good reason.
As the justifications for our little undeclared wars gets flimsier and flimsier, the rates of soldier suicides and mental health issues goes up. War has always been hell, always involved PTSD (shellshock), etc, but the soldiers who stopped Hitler didn't have the rate of suicide found in the soldiers who wondered why the hell they're in Iraq blowing up people who aren't threatening the USA.
But the military-industrial-complex Eisenhower tried to warn us about, it cries out to be fed blood and treasure. Defense contractors have some real power in Washington. CIA funded and trained Al-Qaida (research this, then pass judgment, like an intelligent person) and just loves overthrowing democratically elected foreign governments. Eisenhower could see this coming over 50 years ago because he was informed and paid attention instead of drooling in front of a TV worrying about football and Taylor Swift. If you think the mass media cares about doing anything other than keeping you asleep so you vote for a major party and buy more frivolous shit you don't need, you haven't critically examined it at all.
When I look at the world today . . . I see Obama threatening to use dictatorial powers . . . which will cause the Republicans in Congress to shut the government down . . . while ISIS is making a mighty romp . . . and no Muslim countries seemed to be concerned about that . . . Putin, is, while just being Putin.
And, and and more and. I'm trying hard do decide why I am not committing suicide myself.
Oh, I need to teach a class at TU Darmstadt in a couple of weeks, and need to create a presentation. Never mind.
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
If someone's been searching for PTSD, Major Depressive Disorder and Suicidal ideation, maybe they're at risk?
People at risk tend to isolate themselves during bouts of depression (not just "the blues"), so they turn to the internet.
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Verbal assaults? Oh no, Cpl Wilson yelled at me and called me names. True, I shat in his kit bag for seven days running, but he's clearly suicidal for raising his voice. Plus he hurt my feelings so he's a sociopath as well. Best lock him up before he hurts someone.
Fucking pussies.
"Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
Once corrected for age demographics (which people tallying raw numbers usually forget to do), the suicide rate in US military is lower than civilian population. Rather impressive for organization whose purpose is to kill, maim and blow up shit.
Instead of using computers to figure out who's most likely to take their own lives, how about we use machine learning to figure out why these people are killing themselves, and fix the actual problem?
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
It would seem that some profit taking by a psychiatrist might benefit yourself as well.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
JavaScript is a completely separate technology from Java. Java was the "in thing" back in the days when Brendan Eich at Netscape created a programming language that was originally going to be called LiveScript, so unfortunately they decided to rename it from LiveScript to JavaScript in the hope of catching the media’s interest.
and here
JavaScript, aka Mocha, aka LiveScript, aka JScript, aka ECMAScript,
The Java- prefix suggests that JavaScript is somehow related to Java, that it is a subset or less capable version of Java. It seems that the name was intentionally selected to create confusion, and from confusion comes misunderstanding. JavaScript is not interpreted Java. Java is interpreted Java. JavaScript is a different language.
The Question: What's the difference between JavaScript and Java? The best answer on stackoverflow
Java and Javascript are similar like Car and Carpet are similar.
So, you got any evidence showing the GP was right? Because the GP, contrary to your claim, ignored the facts.
"Transparent" is a shit show that trades on every stereotype going. A man in drag is NOT a transsexual.
Why should it be illegal to commit suicide?
I don't feel that if someone wishes to take their life we have a right to stop them. It is their existence, their experience, their decision, their right. We should not encourage it, but if we want to reduce the number of people who do it, then help them with their problems, don't go hunting them down, and locking them up in white room - mattress walled asylums in straight jackets, doped up on who knows what.
It's dangerous to allow the government the ability to predict, and then potentially take action based on it, far more dangerous than simply leaving people alone, even should they choose that awful path. People are creative, if they really want to leave this world, they will.
I art more snarky, and terse than thou. I art Slashdot!
Maybe you could present some evidence showing how the GP is wrong?
Not difficult: JavaScript is dynamically typed. Java is statically typed. This is a fundamental difference between the two languages.
Or alcohol.
Thank you, NRA and Congress, for giving our brave service men and women the freedom and personal responsibility to kill themselves when things get too tough.
http://touch.latimes.com/#sect...
Programs to prevent psychological problems in troops questioned
By Alan Zarembo
February 20, 2014, 7:34 p.m.
Many federal programs aimed at preventing psychological problems in military service members and their families have not been evaluated correctly to determine whether they are working and are not supported by science, says a new report commissioned by the Defense Department.
"A lot of their programs don’t have any good data behind them," said Kenneth Warner, a professor of public health at the University of Michigan who led the Institute of Medicine committee that produced the report. "We remain uncertain about which approaches work and which ones are ineffective."
At the same time, some proven interventions are not being used, the committee found. Researchers said there was ample evidence to suggest that limiting access to personal firearms on military bases would reduce suicides. About 60% of service members who take their own lives do it with guns — usually their own.
"Means restriction has been demonstrated to work," said David Rudd, a psychologist and suicide expert at the University of Memphis who served on the committee.
But in 2011, Congress prohibited the Defense Department from regulating legally owned personal firearms and ammunition on military bases.
http://iom.edu/Reports/2014/Pr...
Preventing Psychological Disorders in Service Members and Their Families: An Assessment of Programs
February 20, 2014
Among the small number of DOD-sponsored reintegration programs that exist, none appears to be based on scientific evidence. The committee was unable to identify any DOD evidence-based programs addressing the prevention of domestic abuse. More recently, the services have implemented a number of prevention interventions to address military sexual assault, yet a DOD review found that critical evaluation components needed to measure their effectiveness are missing.
The committee also found that environmental strategies with strong evidence of effectiveness are underutilized, such as restricting access to lethal means such as personal firearms to prevent suicide or homicide in domestic violence cases or placing restrictions on the sale of alcohol to reduce substance misuse.
In place of these proven approaches, the committee typically found interventions such as campaigns, Internet tools, or in-person events with no evidence for their effectiveness at preventing the targeted problem.
But the military-industrial-complex Eisenhower tried to warn us about, it cries out to be fed blood and treasure.
You mean the one that he founded. It wasn't a warning, it was an apology.
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