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Aliens Are Probably Everywhere, Just Not Anywhere Nearby

Posted by timothy on from the where-is-everyone? dept.

rossgneumann writes If there's intelligent life in the cosmos, it's probably nowhere we can get to anytime soon. At least that's the finding of the astrobiologist who, for the first time in decades, has rendered a major update to the key formula scientists use to seek out interstellar life. That'd be the Drake equation, which was developed over half a century ago to determine where life might lurk in the universe. Using the new Kepler data, astrobiologist Amri Wandel did some calculations to estimate the density of life-bearing worlds in our corner of the universe.

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  1. Drakes Equation is bullshit by vongillern · · Score: 1, Troll

    Calling it an "equation" is a gross injustice as it implies that it is "science". It isn't. We don't know the ACTUAL percentages for ANY of the probabilities used in Drake's Equation. The only variable in Drake's Equation that we have the slightest idea about is the first one R* - the average rate of star formation. FFS, it has only been 10 years since we could actually detect a single plant outside of our solar system. And mind you, unless we know EVERY SINGLE PROBABILITY in the equation, it is rendered moot because if one of the unknowns is 0% the whole fucking result will be a big, fat, zero. This guy is a fucking quack. Michael Crichton has an awesome essay/speech about how this misunderstanding of Drakes Equation has made a whole generation of people ignorant of what real science is - the creation of testable hypothesis. Essay is here (PDF warning): http://heartland.org/sites/all...