New Virus Means Deadlier Flu Season Is Possible

HughPickens.com writes Donald McNeil writes in the NYT that this year's flu season may be deadlier than usual because this year's flu vaccine is a relatively poor match to a new virus that is now circulating. "Flu is unpredictable, but what we've seen thus far is concerning," says Dr. Thomas R. Frieden. According to the CDC, five U.S. children have died from flu-related complications so far this season. Four of them were infected with influenza A viruses, including three cases of H3N2 infections. The new H3 subtype first appeared overseas in March but because it was not found in many samples in the United States until September, it is now too late to change the vaccine. Because of the increased danger from the H3 strain — and because B influenza strains can also cause serious illness — the CDC recommends that patients with asthma, diabetes or lung or heart problems see a doctor at the first sign of a possible flu, and that doctors quickly prescribe antivirals like Tamiflu or Relenza. "H3N2 viruses tend to be associated with more severe seasons," says Frieden. "The rate of hospitalization and death can be twice as high or more in flu seasons when H3 doesn't predominate."

Comments

Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

After going through Ebola, who is really going to give a shit about this? My suspicion is that, now that the Ebola hype has died back, Big News is looking for another epidemic story since they hit the rating jackpot on the last one.

Re:Meh.

[gatkinso]

While not nearly as dramatic, my understanding is that flu kills many more people than Ebola does.

But death rate aside - who wants to be laid up in bed for a week with fever and body aches?

Re:Meh.

[CrimsonAvenger]

making it much more important to politicians than tens of thousands of Africans!

It must be noted that "tens of thousands of Africans" haven't died from ebola. Thousands, yes. Tens of thousands, no.

Re:Meh.

[ranton]

Flu will kill more Americans this year than Ebola will this decade.

I think its safe to say the flu will kill more Americans this year than Ebola will this century, or more likely this millennium.

Re:Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

Never heard of herd immunity? Your minor inconvenience could save an immunocompromised person.

Re:Meh.

[dywolf]

because the flu kills many more people than ebola, and is actually worth worrying abuot?
because, unlike ebola, the flu doesnt burn itself out.
ebola kills too easily and spreads with difficulty, which limits its spread and capabilty to harm large numbers.
the flu, being more contagious and less deadly on an individual basis, is able to infect more people and thus kill more people.

ebola is still below 10k fatailities for this outbreak.
the flu ranges between 3k and 49k every year, averaging >20k.

flu also causes a bigger drain on the world's economies, with lost production, costs spent on treatment, workers staying home, etc, than most other "scary" diseases.

and this is "average" considerations, where the article is about how this years flu season may be exceptional due to the vaccine being less capable than expected compared to the expected viral strain.

Re:Meh.

[TheGratefulNet]

But death rate aside - who wants to be laid up in bed for a week with fever and body aches?

with or without pay?

(I'm serious, actually. as a contractor, I get no sick time off (paid) and so each time I get sick, I have to think if its worth losing a day's pay vs infecting others at work. lose/lose. welcome to the new normal for emplo^H^H^H^H^Hworkers.)

Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[jratcliffe]

I've spent the last couple of days wishing for sweet, sweet death, and I did get my flu shot. Still 100% glad I got my flu shot, though. Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg. Not the vest's fault. A group of very highly trained professionals made a judgment call back in February about what strains this year's flu shot should protect against, and they got it wrong. C'est la vie.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[TheRealHocusLocus]

Still 100% glad I got my flu shot, though. Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg.

I was at Walgreen's shopping for scented candles, to ward off evil spirits, when I spotted this bright bold sign that shouted

Get your flu shot...NOW!

I jumped and backed up against the shelf with the candles, knocked them per foss, but the aisle was deserted, no needle wielding assailant apparent. The little signs were everywhere! Why had I not spotted them before?? Clutching a sandalwood candle and a gallon of milk defensively I approached the checkout, where the clerk informed me that the special price shown in the large glowing red sign was for those with a Special Rewards Card Only, and did I want to get one now?

Then the sign flashed out its warning, in the word that it was forming,
and the sign said

Get your flu shot...NOW!

I fled in terror.

CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[PeterM from Berkeley]

Hello,

    I think the CDC has a LOT more grounds to ring the "danger bell" than the people supporting Department of Defense spending. How many US people did terrorists kill in the last 10 years? Probably flu deaths are in the 100,000's? We also lose about 30k people/year to antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria, however, do we even have $10B/year going into new antibiotic research?

    By *that* measure, which is pretty rational, the CDC and NIH ought to be funded at a higher level than the DoD.

    I mean, does USA *really* need to be spending more next 10 nations combined on its national defense, as opposed to spending more to control diseases which could quite conceivably mutate and become major killers, or combat already existing credible threats like ebola? How about spending more to assure the food supply is continuous? There are diseases wiping out food crops like bananas, citrus, chocolate, coffee, and there are credible disease threats against wheat. Yet USA is spending a pittiance to combat *that* risk, which, rationally, is a bigger risk than the risks mitigated by USA's DoD spending.

--PeterM

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[bunratty]

Where do you get this "end of the world" thing? As for the claim of "alarmism", do you not remember the flu strain several years ago that tended to kill healthy people in the prime of their life, rather than "immunocompromised hosts"?

It's not that the reports are "alarmist". It's (1) you're not understanding the actual risk, and (2) you're pretending that the reports are predicting the end of the world.

Boy who cried wolf

[Anonymous Coward]

Well I love your great anecdotal evidence, you should probably publish it and see how it goes. So, as an actual virologist and epidemiologist, let me try to explain here. First, please understand the difference between correlation and causation. Second, you may truly have a strong immune system helping protect you against seasonal flu or you may simply have very selective memory. Third, a strong immune system has actually been shown to be a detriment as it leads to what some scientists term a cytokine/chemokine storm (yes this specific terminology/pathology still debated) so enjoy that avoidance of a simple, cheap, and safe vaccine if we ever have to deal with such a strain. Fourth, the flu SHOT does not cause the flu, it is killed and will not lead to any type of viral infection directly from the shot. It is, of course, possible for the vaccine to be targeting the wrong strains as the article states the current one may but sorry to say it still is a partial guessing game and they will sometimes guess wrong. This is why good hygiene and health practices are also critical, not just the vaccine. Fifth, someone really has no understanding of herd immunity. One of the most critical aspects of the flu vaccine is it can protect the elderly, young, and immune compromised who themselves can't receive the vaccine or receive no direct benefit. Are you so cold as to avoid a simple and safe shot which could save your own child, or your parents/grand parents? What if your neighbors baby gets dies and we could trace it directly back to you (fairly easy to do through sequencing analysis)? Again, the vaccine is easy and cheap. The economic costs directly related to seasonal flu pay for it by itself, not including the life saving factors. It is simply ignorance, avoidance, and stupidity which can lead to such illogical jumps of "I never get sick so I don't need a vaccine" or "I only get sick when I get vaccinated". If you showed me a daily health report from the last 5 years where you reported your temp and clinical signs twice a day, I may believe you. Otherwise sorry to say I am sticking with selective memory.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[thegarbz]

I started paying attention to this crap in the late 90s when I realized 'it seems like every year we're going to have a horrible flu outbreak'

Then you haven't really being paying much attention. Sure there's usually one or two attention grabbing whores on Fox News, but for the most part the only really alarmist case that was reported was H1N1, and rightfully so as it turned out. Maybe you should actually review how much airtime the CDC dedicated to the flu each year before you claim they are crying wolf.

And while we're on the subject of the flu ... why is it that I'm the only one in my family that doesn't get a flu shot and I'm also the only one who has managed to not get the flu every year except for the year before last ... when doctors convinced me to get the flu shot because I had a newborn son ... ironic that I GOT THE FLU THAT YEAR.

Not understanding how the vaccine works is not irony. Your survived a mild strain of the flu, congratulations. In the meantime, I, a healthy 25 year old who plays sports, eats a healthy diet, and hadn't had so much as a sneeze in the years preceding managed to get hospitalised for 2 weeks when I caught the flu. It took most of the year to get back into the shape I was before I caught it, but it's good to know that you think everything is ok and we should all just brush it off. By the way did they tell you which stain of flu you got? There's only about 100 of them, I assume you got a vaccine for each one? No?

I'm also interested in how your entire family manages to get the flue every year when only about 0.04% of the population is diagnosed with a strain of influenza in the USA in any given year.

The flu is scary for immunocompromised hosts, which is basically no one other than HIV/AIDS carriers and older people. Even freaking kids have an immune system that does well against it.

Wow. I didn't realise one could have so much ignorance in one statement but still get out the word immunocompromised. Certainly it's only the million or so AIDS suffers that died in the last flu pandemic right? Right? Wrong. Of note as well is that the H1N1 outbreak in Australia killed people with a median age of 53. Healthy adults fell victim to it. The Hong Kong Flu killed a shitload of people.

I'll leave you with a lovely little saying:
"About 10 times a year a person will catch a cold and think they have the flu. About once in every 10 years a person will catch the flu and never again confuse it with a cold."

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[minstrelmike]

It's not that the reports are "alarmist". It's (1) you're not understanding the actual risk, and (2) you're pretending that the reports are predicting the end of the world.

Yup. that applies to most of the comments.
Viruses mutate and flus occur regularly. Occasionally, one is deadly.
To get in front of evolution and have 50 million vaccines ready for distribution, you need to make educated guesses.
This year we guessed wrong. That's the gist of the article.