New Virus Means Deadlier Flu Season Is Possible

HughPickens.com writes Donald McNeil writes in the NYT that this year's flu season may be deadlier than usual because this year's flu vaccine is a relatively poor match to a new virus that is now circulating. "Flu is unpredictable, but what we've seen thus far is concerning," says Dr. Thomas R. Frieden. According to the CDC, five U.S. children have died from flu-related complications so far this season. Four of them were infected with influenza A viruses, including three cases of H3N2 infections. The new H3 subtype first appeared overseas in March but because it was not found in many samples in the United States until September, it is now too late to change the vaccine. Because of the increased danger from the H3 strain — and because B influenza strains can also cause serious illness — the CDC recommends that patients with asthma, diabetes or lung or heart problems see a doctor at the first sign of a possible flu, and that doctors quickly prescribe antivirals like Tamiflu or Relenza. "H3N2 viruses tend to be associated with more severe seasons," says Frieden. "The rate of hospitalization and death can be twice as high or more in flu seasons when H3 doesn't predominate."

Comments

Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

After going through Ebola, who is really going to give a shit about this? My suspicion is that, now that the Ebola hype has died back, Big News is looking for another epidemic story since they hit the rating jackpot on the last one.

Re:Meh.

[K. S. Kyosuke]

There's always the HIV pandemic that you can fall back to if nothing else is killing us at the moment. ;-)

Re:Meh.

[gatkinso]

While not nearly as dramatic, my understanding is that flu kills many more people than Ebola does.

But death rate aside - who wants to be laid up in bed for a week with fever and body aches?

Re:Meh.

[Chrisq]

After going through Ebola, who is really going to give a shit about this?

Ah but TFA says five American children have died of this - making it much more important to politicians than tens of thousands of Africans! It sucks but that's the way it is.

Re:Meh.

[CrimsonAvenger]

making it much more important to politicians than tens of thousands of Africans!

It must be noted that "tens of thousands of Africans" haven't died from ebola. Thousands, yes. Tens of thousands, no.

Re:Meh.

[dreamchaser]

If you live in a developed nation you're orders of magnitude more likely to die of the flu than of ebola.

Re:Meh.

[NotDrWho]

Don't worry, there is always some new PANDEMIC VIRUS THAT'S GOING TO KILL US ALL around the corner. As long as the CDC needs funding, there is always a new threat on the horizon. I remember as a kid being scared to death when the CDC announced that the Russian Flu was going to devastate the U.S. Oh, how naive I was back then. My dad just laughed when II came home crying from school because some gullible teacher had thought it wise to scare the shit out of her elementary students. He told me that there was always someone predicting the end of the world, and they were always full of shit. "When real disaster comes, no one ever sees it coming," he concluded.

Re:Meh.

[oodaloop]

If you live in a developed nation you're orders of magnitude more likely to die of the flu than of ebola.

...if you're a toddler or senior citizen.

Re:Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

Flu will kill more Americans this year than Ebola will this decade.

Re:Meh.

[ranton]

Flu will kill more Americans this year than Ebola will this decade.

I think its safe to say the flu will kill more Americans this year than Ebola will this century, or more likely this millennium.

Re:Meh.

[dreamchaser]

Normal, otherwise healthy adults can die from the flu too, though it's far more rare.

Re:Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

Never heard of herd immunity? Your minor inconvenience could save an immunocompromised person.

Re:Meh.

[Trepidity]

I don't think anyone's being "ordered" to get it. I got an email that they were giving free vaccinations at my workplace last month. I could go to a certain room between 1pm and 2pm and get one, or I could choose not go to that room and not get one.

Reasons healthy adults might want to get one: 1) your risk of dying from the flu is quite low, but your risk of falling ill for 1-3 weeks is much higher; and 2) higher levels of vaccination in the population are protective of more vulnerable members of the population as well. This works on both a local scale (less chance of passing on influenza to other household members, like kids or grandparents), as well as on a community scale.

Re:Meh.

[pr0fessor]

Also more likely to kill the very young or elderly and influenza & pneumonia (they are lumped together) rank above gun violence as a leading causes of death in the US.

Re:Meh.

[petermgreen]

flu kills many more people total but a much lower proportion of those infected.

ebola was a massively deadly up and coming disease with infection counts growing apparently exponentially. Fortunately it seems sufficient resources have been brought in to bring the outbreak under control before it got too big.

ebola also poses a grave threat to healthcare workers and early symptoms are difficult to distinguish from more mundane diseases. This makes it difficult to keep a healthcare system running properly in the face of an ebola epidemic (AIUI it is belived that deaths from this will be greater than the direct ebola deaths).

Re:Meh.

[TheRealHocusLocus]

Basically,

"Flu Season Deadlier Than Previously Thought"

Who are these people Previously Thinking these things?
Will they please stop?
Perhaps it's a ruse.
No one Previously Thought these things.
They're actually just saying these things.
It's all about the scary music,
you must imagine scary music,
music like this.
Go ahead, play it now. Turn it up LOUD.

Here, take a cookie.
I promise, by the time you're done eating it ---
you'll feel right as rain.

Re:Meh.

[dreamchaser]

I agree. I do not get the flu shot even though it is constantly pushed on me. I'm only in my late 40s and in good health. I'd rather catch it and ride it out, which rarely happens.

Re:Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

Everyone who gets the vaccine is guaranteed to feel crappy and be less productive that day

No. You're wrong, and you're spreading misinformation.

First, from the flu shot? Your arm might be sore that day, and that's generally about it. The odds of getting even a low-grade fever or being achy are quite low.

The flu mist, on the other hand, uses weakened but live virus, and causes lots of side effects. They're generally mild, of course, but the mist is the one they often give to children, who you've already admitted probably need it.

Plus, getting vaccinated isn't just for you, it also helps stop the spread of disease.

Re:Meh.

[jedidiah]

Yes. Lack of infastructure seems to be more of a problem than the disease itself. This is a disease that has no cure but can be managed through treatment of the symptoms. Except those are dire enough in the early stages that they require considerable resources.

Plus all of the fluids that have to be replaced are highly infectious and a great danger to healthcare workers.

Re:Meh.

[dywolf]

because the flu kills many more people than ebola, and is actually worth worrying abuot?
because, unlike ebola, the flu doesnt burn itself out.
ebola kills too easily and spreads with difficulty, which limits its spread and capabilty to harm large numbers.
the flu, being more contagious and less deadly on an individual basis, is able to infect more people and thus kill more people.

ebola is still below 10k fatailities for this outbreak.
the flu ranges between 3k and 49k every year, averaging >20k.

flu also causes a bigger drain on the world's economies, with lost production, costs spent on treatment, workers staying home, etc, than most other "scary" diseases.

and this is "average" considerations, where the article is about how this years flu season may be exceptional due to the vaccine being less capable than expected compared to the expected viral strain.

Re:Meh.

[dywolf]

the numbers arent qite that high.

Re:Meh.

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually this is incorrect. The reported numbers are known deaths. See for example this article, quote

  "WHO most recently said it believes the actual Ebola death toll is about three times higher than the roughly 4,900 confirmed or suspected cases. That would bring the number of people killed in the current Ebola outbreak to about 15,000. ".

So yes, tens of thousands have probably died from ebola.

Re:Meh.

[ranton]

Thousands of people die in the US from the flu each year. Tens of thousands during years when H3N2 variants are prevalent. Since only a few Americans have died from Ebola this year, it is quite likely that a thousand or even close to ten thousand times more Americans die from the flu this year than from Ebola.

Re:Meh.

[TheGratefulNet]

But death rate aside - who wants to be laid up in bed for a week with fever and body aches?

with or without pay?

(I'm serious, actually. as a contractor, I get no sick time off (paid) and so each time I get sick, I have to think if its worth losing a day's pay vs infecting others at work. lose/lose. welcome to the new normal for emplo^H^H^H^H^Hworkers.)

Re:Meh.

[Opportunist]

Fatty food will kill more Americans by giving them a heart attack THIS WEEK ALONE than there will be deaths by Ebola or that "new horrible killer" flu combined this decade.

And? You see anyone start picketing McD?

I'll start giving half a shit about any of the OMFG-the-sky-is-falling diseases after we've taken care of the real killers. But I guess viruses have a worse PR company than burger joints.

Re:Meh.

[Bob the Super Hamste]

Then there are people like me who seem to have immune system that go crazy on stuff like vaccines. I seem to be in the minority even in my family but I will feel like crap for about day with a fever, sniffles, and coughing. At the same time when I do catch a cold my body will power through it fairy quick so that works well for me.

Re:Meh.

[OakDragon]

It looks like in the US problems caused by being a fat ass or smoker is the leading cause by a long margin.

Did anyone get his name?

Re:Meh.

[EvilSS]

Everyone who gets the vaccine is guaranteed to feel crappy and be less productive that day

No. You're wrong, and you're spreading misinformation.

First, from the flu shot? Your arm might be sore that day, and that's generally about it. The odds of getting even a low-grade fever or being achy are quite low.

Not true. I know for myself when I get the Flu shot I generally feel like crap for about a day. This should be expected, the shot triggers the immune system. Even so, I've had the flu (not to be confused with the common cold, which most people do) twice in my life and I'm more than happy to trade a "meh" day to reduce the odds that I'll ever go through that again.

Re:Meh.

[SillyHamster]

Never heard of herd immunity? Your minor inconvenience could save an immunocompromised person.

1. Flu shots aren't given to everyone. Heck, they run shortages frequently - and that's with voluntary shots. There is no herd immunity to maintain. There has never been a flu herd immunity.

2. With unrestricted illegal immigration, it doesn't matter how immune the rest of the herd is, because we're importing new disease vectors/reservoirs without even a quick physical checkup.

Re:Meh.

[pr0fessor]

Influenza used to be much worse especially with out the knowledge we have today to treat it. You are eventually going to die of something better cancer or heart disease at 80 than the flu before before 50. http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/hi...
 

Re:Meh.

[SillyHamster]

There is herd immunity, but all that happens is a different strain of flu ends up spreading.

So every year, a number of people get sick with the flu ... and that demonstrates flu herd immunity exists and works.

I'm afraid I do not find your concept of herd immunity to be useful.

Re:Meh.

[rs79]

While not nearly as dramatic, my understanding is that flu kills many more people than Ebola does.

Yes and no.

Ebola typically kills between 50% to 99% of infected patients. Each Ebola patient on average infects two other (R0 = 2 - this is the r-naught factor)

The W.H.O. has computed a 70.8% lethality rate for the current strain: GEBOV.

Influenza otoh has a far lower lethality rate, but more people get it. If as many people got Ebola as got influenza, then, um, well, errr, let's put it this way you wouldn't have to worry about slow loading websites.

But yes, 50,000 people a year die of flu in the US, not one American in America died of a disease that's 70% lethal and there are reasons for this.

Re:Meh.

[david_thornley]

The odds of feeling crappy from a flu shot are quite low in general. Very few people get such symptoms. You're just one of the few who consistently gets them. Lucky you.

Re:Meh.

[david_thornley]

A pandemic virus doesn't have to kill everybody to be a Bad Thing. (BTW, my wife lost her sense of smell with the Russian Flu. It took decades for it to return. It beat dying of it, but it wasn't pleasant.)

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Also more likely to kill the very young or elderly and influenza & pneumonia (they are lumped together) rank above gun violence as a leading causes of death in the US.

If flu victims would only arm themselves, they would no longer be victims. Oops, sorry, reflex post.

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Normal, otherwise healthy adults can die from the flu too, though it's far more rare.

That was the weirdness of the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1917 or thereabouts. Healthy young adults were more likely to die. Nurses, soldiers, etc. Suggested that maybe there was something about that strain that triggered immune overreaction, so those with weaker immune symptoms were protected, paradoxically.

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Never heard of herd immunity? Your minor inconvenience could save an immunocompromised person.

2. With unrestricted illegal immigration, it doesn't matter how immune the rest of the herd is, because we're importing new disease vectors/reservoirs without even a quick physical checkup.

By and large illegal immigrants are healthier than the average American and use fewer "health care resources", something which has been studied for decades now with lots of publications, in the hope that there's something there the rest of us can do. Theories range from "they go back home to die when they get sick" to "they're afraid of authorities so they avoid medical coverage, and that not only doesn't reduce their life expectancy it actually helps it because many of us are overmedicated" to "they retain healthy eating and exercise habits they grew up with". My personal pet theory is that you're selecting a healthy population that would have the capacity to get here illegally.

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

The flip side of that is that there is some evidence that the vaccine doesn't actually reduce deaths from flu, because those immune systems are so bad that they die from flu are bad enough that they can't mount a decent defense, even when vaccinated a priori. No consensus on this yet. (Cue the consensus debate)

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Somebody must have done a good blind controlled study of vaccines vs placebo, not just for effectiveness, but for safety/side effects, to get FDA approval. Where does that stuff live for popular consumption?

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Insurers are pushing it free to the consumer, no copay, no deductibler, because the money lies in avoiding the flu and all the attendant expenses, not in the vaccine. One short hospitalization would pay for a huge number of vaccinations. Insurers know their ROI inside and out.

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Don't worry, there is always some new PANDEMIC VIRUS THAT'S GOING TO KILL US ALL around the corner. As long as the CDC needs funding, there is always a new threat on the horizon. I remember as a kid being scared to death when the CDC announced that the Russian Flu was going to devastate the U.S. Oh, how naive I was back then. My dad just laughed when II came home crying from school because some gullible teacher had thought it wise to scare the shit out of her elementary students. He told me that there was always someone predicting the end of the world, and they were always full of shit. "When real disaster comes, no one ever sees it coming," he concluded.

People see hurricanes and volcanoes coming all the time, and our primate failure to respond leads to real disasters anyway.

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

It does seem odd that one symptom of having Ebola, in America at least, is that you immediately go out on the town and/or on trips and cruises. Maybe we aren't giving the Ebola virus the credit it deserves.

Re:Meh.

[SillyHamster]

By and large illegal immigrants are healthier than the average American and use fewer "health care resources", something which has been studied for decades now with lots of publications, in the hope that there's something there the rest of us can do.

You wouldn't know their health without doing a physical checkup, which isn't done on illegal immigrants bypassing official channels.

So what are these studies based off of?

Re:Meh.

[EvilSS]

Pubmed probably. However, the CDC has a handy list of side effects:

Mild problems following inactivated flu vaccine:

• soreness, redness, or swelling where the shot was given
• hoarseness
• sore, red or itchy eyes
• cough
• fever
• aches
• headache
• itching
• fatigue

If these problems occur, they usually begin soon after the shot and last 1 or 2 days.

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm#flu

Re:Meh.

[gzuckier]

Pubmed probably. However, the CDC has a handy list of side effects: Mild problems following inactivated flu vaccine:

• soreness, redness, or swelling where the shot was given
• hoarseness
• sore, red or itchy eyes
• cough
• fever
• aches
• headache
• itching
• fatigue

If these problems occur, they usually begin soon after the shot and last 1 or 2 days.

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm#flu

To some degree, I have all of those all the time, except for the "where the shot was given" part.

Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[jratcliffe]

I've spent the last couple of days wishing for sweet, sweet death, and I did get my flu shot. Still 100% glad I got my flu shot, though. Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg. Not the vest's fault. A group of very highly trained professionals made a judgment call back in February about what strains this year's flu shot should protect against, and they got it wrong. C'est la vie.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[TheRealHocusLocus]

Still 100% glad I got my flu shot, though. Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg.

I was at Walgreen's shopping for scented candles, to ward off evil spirits, when I spotted this bright bold sign that shouted

Get your flu shot...NOW!

I jumped and backed up against the shelf with the candles, knocked them per foss, but the aisle was deserted, no needle wielding assailant apparent. The little signs were everywhere! Why had I not spotted them before?? Clutching a sandalwood candle and a gallon of milk defensively I approached the checkout, where the clerk informed me that the special price shown in the large glowing red sign was for those with a Special Rewards Card Only, and did I want to get one now?

Then the sign flashed out its warning, in the word that it was forming,
and the sign said

Get your flu shot...NOW!

I fled in terror.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[TheRaven64]

Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg. Not the vest's fault

Given the number of flu strains in the wild vs the number that a vaccine protects you against, a better analogy is that you're wearing bullet-proof shoes, and you got shot in the leg.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[StormReaver]

Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg.

You were wearing the a bulletproof vest produced by the same designer who made the Emperor's new clothes.

The Flu vaccine is no more effective than random chance, but it's a huge money maker for the pharmaceutical industry.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[jratcliffe]

The Flu vaccine is no more effective than random chance, but it's a huge money maker for the pharmaceutical industry.

Got any actual evidence for this claim? I see your unsupported assertion, and raise you a page of peer-reviewed studies.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/q...

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[Bengie]

From what I've read, averaged over many years, the flu shot reduces your chance of requiring a trip to the ER by 50%. For any given year or given person, they don't know. This also means you may still get sick with the flu, but you're 50% less likely need a trip to the ER, where you may die.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[drinkypoo]

They make an educated guess as to which strains are going to be most common each year. They then build a vaccine to cover those. Usually, the educated guess is pretty darned accurate, and the vaccine works as anticipated.

The problem is, even when they get it wrong and they know they got it wrong, they still insist that you should go get the flu shot even though it is likely to be ineffectual this year. That way you can waste your time and money and risk complications, however slightly.

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[antdude]

Flu shots can only handle a few strains IIRC. I easily get sick. :(

Re:Looks like the mismatch nailed me

[gzuckier]

Basically, I was wearing a bulletproof vest, but got shot in the leg.

You were wearing the a bulletproof vest produced by the same designer who made the Emperor's new clothes.

The Flu vaccine is no more effective than random chance, but it's a huge money maker for the pharmaceutical industry.

Another conspiracy against the Common Man!!! Annual pharmaceutical sales - approximately $1 trillion. http://www2.deloitte.com/conte... Annual flu vaccine sales - approximately $3 billion. http://www.kaloramainformation... Hugemoneymakerness index of flu vaccine to pharmaceutical industry - 0.003. (I just created this metric, but you get the idea)

open source

[Anonymous Coward]

That wouldn't happen if the vaccine was open source. Someone would have patched this bug.

Re:open source

[Buchenskjoll]

You do realize that his vaccine needs to be manufactured. It's not that they can't fix it, there just isn't time to manufacture a new vaccine.

Re:open source

[jratcliffe]

Yes, absolutely. That's why I made the "back in February" comment. They need to make a judgment call then about the most likely strains, and manufacture to that.

Not again

[Anonymous Coward]

Not this bullshit again, it's already that time of the year?

CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[PeterM from Berkeley]

Hello,

    I think the CDC has a LOT more grounds to ring the "danger bell" than the people supporting Department of Defense spending. How many US people did terrorists kill in the last 10 years? Probably flu deaths are in the 100,000's? We also lose about 30k people/year to antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria, however, do we even have $10B/year going into new antibiotic research?

    By *that* measure, which is pretty rational, the CDC and NIH ought to be funded at a higher level than the DoD.

    I mean, does USA *really* need to be spending more next 10 nations combined on its national defense, as opposed to spending more to control diseases which could quite conceivably mutate and become major killers, or combat already existing credible threats like ebola? How about spending more to assure the food supply is continuous? There are diseases wiping out food crops like bananas, citrus, chocolate, coffee, and there are credible disease threats against wheat. Yet USA is spending a pittiance to combat *that* risk, which, rationally, is a bigger risk than the risks mitigated by USA's DoD spending.

--PeterM

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[NotDrWho]

The fact that the defense budget is bloated (and it is, VERY MUCH SO) doesn't justify the CDC being bloated, just because it's on a smaller scale.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[operagost]

By *that* measure, which is pretty rational, the CDC and NIH ought to be funded at a higher level than the DoD.

That makes as much sense as demanding that people spend more on smoke detectors than clothing-- since fires are really dangerous. Just throwing money at medical research while neglecting national defense-- which is simply going to be expensive for a superpower-- doesn't make sense in the big picture.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[dywolf]

who says cdc is bloated?
their budget is less than 7 billion.

yet they are responsbile for and cover a great many things that pose actual threats to the american public.
things that kill more citizens than terrorism ever has or likely ever will.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[dywolf]

so youre saying we shouldnt hold them accountable when they are innefective and fail to do the job?

OK FOLKS! NEW CLARIFICATION FROM CONSERVATIVES ON THEIR PLATFORM:
Accountability is only for black kenyan presidents, teachers, and scientists.
No calling for accountability from the people with guns allowed, be it police or military.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[dywolf]

why do we have to BE a superpower?
and your analogy sucks. there is no benefit to spending more on smoke detectors than clothing, but there is a benefit to giving an underfunded orginzation like teh CDC more funding. and it is true: the CDC covers an area responsible for more american death than terrorism ever has. but its not scary, or patriotic, and it deals with science, and then there that whole AC/Tinfoil hat crowd.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[Oligonicella]

He didn't say that at all, don't project. If anything, he said hold *all* departments accountable.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[Oligonicella]

*All* government is bloated. Reducing bloat is non-partisan and not anti-scientific.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[drainbramage]

Thanks to a new law in Washington State the Flu has to pass a background check before it is transferred.
Expect Washington State to have far fewer deaths caused by the irresponsible spread of the Flu.

Re:CDC needs more funding than the DoD

[david_thornley]

Right. And the CDC protects against things that kill far more Americans than what the Department of Defense protects against.

Boy who cried wolf

[BitZtream]

So how many times are we going to go through this same alarmist, the world is going to end because of ... the flu thing?

I started paying attention to this crap in the late 90s when I realized 'it seems like every year we're going to have a horrible flu outbreak' ... then they started naming the flu for the year, which meant my drama queen sister in law seemed to get 'deadliest flu strain ever' every year ... and saying things like 'I have H1N1, its the deadly one!!!!!' except of course ... H1N1 isn't a specific strain, its a class of strains ... and its the most common one for all time, which pretty much everyone gets.

Every year, some news station will show someone from the CDC talking about how much more dangerous this year is ... and they'll throw out numbers ... and then when you go compare those numbers with the CDCs website of ACTUAL statistics ... you see that the numbers they are saying are bullshit ... and that the numbers for this year are actually pretty much average and right down the median of the range from previous years.

Now they've changed the data they display. They no longer display historical data, now they display what they call the seasonal baseline, which is essentially the lowest year ever recorded, and an epidemic threshold, which is exceeded EVERY SINGLE YEAR except extremely rare ones ... and no longer do they show that this year looks exactly like last year, and the previous 20 all look almost identical.

Scaremongering

And while we're on the subject of the flu ... why is it that I'm the only one in my family that doesn't get a flu shot and I'm also the only one who has managed to not get the flu every year except for the year before last ... when doctors convinced me to get the flu shot because I had a newborn son ... ironic that I GOT THE FLU THAT YEAR.

Just fucking stop.

The flu is scary for immunocompromised hosts, which is basically no one other than HIV/AIDS carriers and older people. Even freaking kids have an immune system that does well against it.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[bunratty]

Where do you get this "end of the world" thing? As for the claim of "alarmism", do you not remember the flu strain several years ago that tended to kill healthy people in the prime of their life, rather than "immunocompromised hosts"?

It's not that the reports are "alarmist". It's (1) you're not understanding the actual risk, and (2) you're pretending that the reports are predicting the end of the world.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[Cro Magnon]

Yeah, I remember the pig flu scare of 2009. My mom's BF and a friend of hers got very sick. Odd thing is, they both got shots.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[thegarbz]

I started paying attention to this crap in the late 90s when I realized 'it seems like every year we're going to have a horrible flu outbreak'

Then you haven't really being paying much attention. Sure there's usually one or two attention grabbing whores on Fox News, but for the most part the only really alarmist case that was reported was H1N1, and rightfully so as it turned out. Maybe you should actually review how much airtime the CDC dedicated to the flu each year before you claim they are crying wolf.

And while we're on the subject of the flu ... why is it that I'm the only one in my family that doesn't get a flu shot and I'm also the only one who has managed to not get the flu every year except for the year before last ... when doctors convinced me to get the flu shot because I had a newborn son ... ironic that I GOT THE FLU THAT YEAR.

Not understanding how the vaccine works is not irony. Your survived a mild strain of the flu, congratulations. In the meantime, I, a healthy 25 year old who plays sports, eats a healthy diet, and hadn't had so much as a sneeze in the years preceding managed to get hospitalised for 2 weeks when I caught the flu. It took most of the year to get back into the shape I was before I caught it, but it's good to know that you think everything is ok and we should all just brush it off. By the way did they tell you which stain of flu you got? There's only about 100 of them, I assume you got a vaccine for each one? No?

I'm also interested in how your entire family manages to get the flue every year when only about 0.04% of the population is diagnosed with a strain of influenza in the USA in any given year.

The flu is scary for immunocompromised hosts, which is basically no one other than HIV/AIDS carriers and older people. Even freaking kids have an immune system that does well against it.

Wow. I didn't realise one could have so much ignorance in one statement but still get out the word immunocompromised. Certainly it's only the million or so AIDS suffers that died in the last flu pandemic right? Right? Wrong. Of note as well is that the H1N1 outbreak in Australia killed people with a median age of 53. Healthy adults fell victim to it. The Hong Kong Flu killed a shitload of people.

I'll leave you with a lovely little saying:
"About 10 times a year a person will catch a cold and think they have the flu. About once in every 10 years a person will catch the flu and never again confuse it with a cold."

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[Anonymous Coward]

Everything you say may be true and if you were not an AC I might take your word for it, but there is a good reason people are sceptical. For example my local news station makes a big deal everytime someone dies of the flu. Every story ends with the reminder to get your flue shot.

There are obvious questions that should be answered, 1) what was the cause of death 2) how healthy was the individual 3) did this person get the flu shot. They will not answer these questions. Go to any discussion board of an article talking about specific flu deaths and you will see these questions over and over. Without answers to these questions many people will not be convinced the shot is effective.

It doenst mean the shot is not effective but when you hide information that should be disclosed it causes doubt.

After reading comment after comment like this, I am amazed that anyone on /. criticizes Jenny McCarthy for her stance in vaccination. No matter how low the perceived threat is, flu can be really dangerous and if it weren't for vaccinations we would have already had a flu epidemic on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu. Read what it's like to die of the flu. It's a horrible death. Ever since I saw the Nova documentary on the Spanish flu, I never hesitate to get a flu shot.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[operagost]

He didn't say he got the flu FROM the vaccine... he just pointed out the one time he bothered to get one, the vaccine proved to be ineffective. Also, I'm not an immunologist, but I know the point of the vaccine is to provoke an immune response-- and that immune response is part of what makes people feel sick. Many, if not most people are guaranteed to feel lousy the day they get the vaccine in exchange for the small chance of feeling REALLY BAD for several days-- or really dead.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[minstrelmike]

It's not that the reports are "alarmist". It's (1) you're not understanding the actual risk, and (2) you're pretending that the reports are predicting the end of the world.

Yup. that applies to most of the comments.
Viruses mutate and flus occur regularly. Occasionally, one is deadly.
To get in front of evolution and have 50 million vaccines ready for distribution, you need to make educated guesses.
This year we guessed wrong. That's the gist of the article.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[dywolf]

this is not scare mongering
its facts.

the flu causes more death and more economic loss every year than almost any other communicable disease.
this percieved lack of threat only exacerbates it.

no, its not as scary as ebola. but ebola is really hard to catch and spread. ebola kills too easily, it burns itself out.
the flu doesnt do that though. it spready very easily. and kills only rarely. but it does kill.
this results in it being able to infect a far larger total nubmer of persons, which means a far larger total number of deaths.

ebola may have a >50% mortality rate (and we've seent hat in a modern medicine environment its actually far far lower), but if the base number of infected is below 20k people, thats not that many dead.

contrast that with the flu, with a mortality rate of sub 5%, but an infection base in the tens and hundreds of millions of people. and you end up with a total number of deaths averaging nearly 30k. and thanks to the flu having multiple strains that all evolve quickly, it repeats. every. year.

but lets not stop at deaths.

theres also the economic costs.
getting the lfu typically means between 3-7 days of lost work. days when someone is unproductive. the company suffers, the person suffers, the economy as a whole suffers. especially, agian, because of the large nubmers of people that get it.

so the people who need to stop are folks like. fonts of misinformation who dont know what they are talking about.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[dywolf]

then maybe you should talk to him so he can correct your ignorance and wildly misinformational posts.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[Oligonicella]

"if it weren't for vaccinations we would have already had a flu epidemic on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu." An example of the hyperbole being pointed out.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[MikeKD]

...additionally, they're admitting their guess was wrong so that people can be better prepared. Were there more situations like this.

Re:Boy who cried wolf

[thegarbz]

My anecdotal evidence trumps yours.

Except I have statistics backing me up, so your anecdotes aren't worth a dime.

Wait... you're married to a doctor... and your family catches the flu... every year... Y'all must be doing something very wrong.

H1N1 was supposed to wipe out humanity

[Anonymous Coward]

Forgive me if I simply yawn at yet another hyper-alarmist "CYA" plea from big government.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[NotDrWho]

Or maybe the reality is that we don't really need such a large and complex federal agency to deal with diseases as a matter of course, and so they have to regularly create bullshit boogeymen virus scares to maintain the illusion that their budget should be sacrosanct.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[mean pun]

Issuing reports like this is just the CDC doing their job. You do not complain about the weather service issuing reports about tornados, do you? Or CERT issuing their reports? NHTSA?

It seems to me you are the alarmist here.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[hink]

AAANND, if they said nothing, and some thing horrible happens, some untrained commenter/reporter/radio host would say "the CDC doesn't know anything, they did not warn us this might happen".

Pick what you want, a medical community that tells you what CAN happen, or that tells you what you want to hear. The doctors I deal with (numerous specialties, pediatric and adult, in America), are in the "list everything that CAN happen" mindset. They try to add the probabilities of an outcome, and point out what the most likely outcome is. They have to, or some ambulance chaser lawyer will "help" a patient sue them for "not warning them" of a potential outcome. If you talk with the doctor, and they are candid, they readily admit it can be hard to predict medical outcomes, because human beings and medical facilities have so many variables it is amazing we survive at all.
My wife hates that, because she is a pessimist, and dwells on the low probability "worst case".

Boy who cried wolf

[Anonymous Coward]

Well I love your great anecdotal evidence, you should probably publish it and see how it goes. So, as an actual virologist and epidemiologist, let me try to explain here. First, please understand the difference between correlation and causation. Second, you may truly have a strong immune system helping protect you against seasonal flu or you may simply have very selective memory. Third, a strong immune system has actually been shown to be a detriment as it leads to what some scientists term a cytokine/chemokine storm (yes this specific terminology/pathology still debated) so enjoy that avoidance of a simple, cheap, and safe vaccine if we ever have to deal with such a strain. Fourth, the flu SHOT does not cause the flu, it is killed and will not lead to any type of viral infection directly from the shot. It is, of course, possible for the vaccine to be targeting the wrong strains as the article states the current one may but sorry to say it still is a partial guessing game and they will sometimes guess wrong. This is why good hygiene and health practices are also critical, not just the vaccine. Fifth, someone really has no understanding of herd immunity. One of the most critical aspects of the flu vaccine is it can protect the elderly, young, and immune compromised who themselves can't receive the vaccine or receive no direct benefit. Are you so cold as to avoid a simple and safe shot which could save your own child, or your parents/grand parents? What if your neighbors baby gets dies and we could trace it directly back to you (fairly easy to do through sequencing analysis)? Again, the vaccine is easy and cheap. The economic costs directly related to seasonal flu pay for it by itself, not including the life saving factors. It is simply ignorance, avoidance, and stupidity which can lead to such illogical jumps of "I never get sick so I don't need a vaccine" or "I only get sick when I get vaccinated". If you showed me a daily health report from the last 5 years where you reported your temp and clinical signs twice a day, I may believe you. Otherwise sorry to say I am sticking with selective memory.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[hink]

Another point - have you ever READ the original reports and release from the CDC? Pretty dry stuff.
It is THE PRESS that adds the hyperbole.

this flu sucks. Screen hurting my eyes

[raymorris]

This flu does suck. My six-month-old baby and I have it. That's all I have to say for now because looking at the screen hurts right now.

Re:this flu sucks. Screen hurting my eyes

[antdude]

So stop looking at the screen! Rest!

Re:Let me guess

[ArcadeMan]

No, you're wrong, you totally need Tamiflu or Relenza, the CDC said so!

Re:Time to panic - we're all going to die!

[Buchenskjoll]

And some poor people will even die from both...

ebola

[Tugrabey]

2 years after the Ebola virus will spread throughout the world.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[dywolf]

Ladies and gentlemen: I present to you ignorance so profound it represents a threat to society.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[dywolf]

you mean where teh CDC was correct after all, and all the talking heads were fearmongering over ebola for nothing?

oh yeah. firearms....god forbid an organization whos chief concern is public health do research into one of the deadliest yet most preventable threats in a society, a threat most every other civilized nation has already neutralized. they also have guidance on cars, eating habits, and other leading causes of death.
so scary.
oooooooooo.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[mean pun]

We were talking about this particular communication of the CDC. I see just facts and reasonable-sounding suggestions to doctors, and no ranting anywhere. So why is this 'yet another alarmist virus scare', as you claim it is? Quotes please.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[dywolf]

the only nutcase around here is you.
ok i take that back, you have a lot of company.
but still a nutcase.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[dywolf]

DUH! Obviously the Weather Service is only issuing reports and warnings to justify their own existence and get more funding.
I dont know what theyre going to do with it, since being government employees their salaries are locked by codified pay scales so its not like they can pocket the money from "more funding".

Seriosuly, what do these nuts who say its about more funding think they're going to do with it?
Its so dumb, its hard to properly parody it.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[dywolf]

that's an opinion peice from a non expert criticing experts, and that piece has itself been torn to shreds.

for starters, theres the assumptions that the FBI statistics are at all adequate (they arent, and even the FBI says so), or that their statistics are the end of the discussion and should or would at all match studies.

the FBI stats are inadequate and incomplete.
the FBI even says so.

there are tens of thousands of LEA's across the country (>35k), but onlya very small minority of them (1k) even track statistics and then report them to the FBIs database.
further, unlike robbery or homicide, rape very rarely has third party witnesses or bystanders able to report the crime.
meaning the only person capable of reporting it is the victim. and the victims very often dont report it for various reasons, such as intimidation and threats, they know the assailant, etc etc.

these are established problems with the current statistics, and only the tip of the iceberg of problems, that everyone acknowledges.
except apparently the author of that horrible article...and you.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[Oligonicella]

Step one, disarm public. Steps two through n, tell them what to do.

Re:Time to panic - we're all going to die!

[Opportunist]

Meet the new virus, same as the old virus...

There is an easy fix for this

[Opportunist]

Secure ample funding for the CDC so they don't have to spew alarmist bull every now and then to keep their budget.

Virus 101

[rs79]

Programmers more than anyone should be able to understand these pathogens more than most people.

Bacteria are a problem because some strains/species have metabolic byproducts (ie botulotoxin) that are deadly.

But viruses are different, they don't do this.

What they do instead is replicate like RTM's worm and make trillions of copies of themselves.

Ask yourself - where do the raw materials come from when each virus makes a trillion more?

You, of course.

Now, what if the raw materials they use are really important to you in trace amounts?

So, whatever the virus encodes for, you're losing that stuff.

Ever wonder why Ebola Reston is harmless? Or why some people who got HIV never got AIDS? Or why some who got HIV got AIDS quickly while others took a decade? Or why some people get flu and die while others get sick for a week and are fine after?

It all depends on what the virus encodes for and what molecules it strips from your body.

"Klenner's paper (Klenner FR. The treatment of poliomyelitis and other virus diseases with intravenous ascorbate C. J. South. Med. and Surg., 111:210-214, 1949.) on curing 60 cases of polio in the epidemic of 1948 should have changed the way infectious diseases were treated but it did not." - Robert Cathcart

1949 ^^^

In 2010 the H1N1 influenza swept through here; my ex died of it, I was sick for two days and then back to work.

If you can find the numbers (good luck with that) compute the r-naught factor for Ebola and see if you can explain what happened in mid-October.

Vitamin D

[manu0601]

When it comes to the flu, why bother with unproved vaccines when we have multiple studies showing vitamin D helps your immune system thwart it as efficiently in winter as it does in summer.

Re:It's possible..(or not)...but you should be sca

[gzuckier]

Or maybe the reality is that we don't really need such a large and complex federal agency to deal with diseases as a matter of course, and so they have to regularly create bullshit boogeymen virus scares to maintain the illusion that their budget should be sacrosanct.

That way, when something like Ebola arrives here, we can all run around like chickens with our heads cut off, because we don't have any standing organization with the expertise to deal with it, but it does save us a few bucks on taxes that we can use to buy bigger engines for our Road Queen Family Trucksters and bigger screens for our phones.