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Did Alcatraz Escapees Survive? Computer Program Says They Might Have

In June of 1962, three prisoners escaped the penitentary on Alcatraz, in an elaborate plot that was dramatized in a Clint Eastwood movie. A question that has long puzzled the public is whether these men ever made it to shore; the many factors that made Alcatraz a secure prison include sharks, cold water, and contrary currents. Still, some artifacts from the attempt, and perhaps the appeal of stories about survival against high odds, have led many people to believe that the men actually landed safely and faded into society. coondoggie writes This week Dutch scientists from Delft University of Technology presented findings from a computer modeling program they were working on, unrelated to the mystery, that demonstrated the escapees could have survived the journey. "In hindsight, the best time to launch a boat from Alcatraz was [11:30 am], one and a half hours later than has generally been assumed. A rubber boat leaving Alcatraz at [11:30 am] would most likely have landed just north of the Golden Gate Bridge. The model also shows that debris in that scenario would be likely to wash up at Angel Island, exactly where one of the paddles and some personal belongings were found.

5 of 89 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Myth Confirmed... by show+me+altoids · · Score: 4, Informative

    By the way, the shark thing is bullshit. There are plenty of small sharks in SF Bay, but almost no maneaters. It was a rumor spread to scare potential escapees.

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    I feel sorry for people that don't drink, because when they get up in the morning, that's as good as they're gonna feel
  2. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

    No there isn't. If they'd done something wrong, they'd have ended up in prison. Since they didn't end up in prison, they obviously didn't do anything wrong!

  3. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by chemicaldave · · Score: 5, Informative

    You say that as if the US penal system's primary goal is to rehabilitate rather than punish. Our system is designed not to rehabilitate, rather it enacts harsh punishment as a theoretical deterrent to crime, and more recently has become a for-profit private enterprise.

  4. Re:Who cares by nabsltd · · Score: 3, Informative

    This was 1962. Living under an alias, with no SSN or ID (or a fake) was considerably easier than it is today.

    Most people don't realize that only a few states had just recently started putting photos on licenses at that time, while the rest had no pictures.

  5. Re:Assuming they escaped, the penal system worked! by Firethorn · · Score: 3, Informative

    It wouldn't be the first time either... I recall a few instances in the '80s and even the '90s where some schlub or other escaped prison in that era (or before), got himself a new identity, and decades later did something stupid (IIRC, in one case the dumbass ran for a local public office, and a local reporter researching his background found the inconsistencies).

    Nazi war criminals are another example of them fading into society. Quite a few have died or even slid into dementia before being found.

    I remember reading about the dementia case - they're holding this murder trial (in Germany) and the accused can't even remember that he's in a courthouse half the time. But they're so balls up on prosecuting him that they're doing daily competency tests - if he passed the test the trial went forward that day. Otherwise it didn't. They spend years trying to prosecute him(with delays getting longer and longer due to him sliding further into dementia), he's obviously reached the point that even if convicted all that's going to happen is that they'll assign a prison guard to his room in the care facility at some massive expense(other medical issues besides slowly losing his mind ensured that, their prison system didn't have that level of care available), etc...

    And he was only supposed to have been a common camp guard at the time, which was deliberately ignored back during the Nuremberg trials.

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    I don't read AC A human right