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Did Alcatraz Escapees Survive? Computer Program Says They Might Have
In June of 1962, three prisoners escaped the penitentary on Alcatraz, in an elaborate plot that was dramatized in a Clint Eastwood movie. A question that has long puzzled the public is whether these men ever made it to shore; the many factors that made Alcatraz a secure prison include sharks, cold water, and contrary currents. Still, some artifacts from the attempt, and perhaps the appeal of stories about survival against high odds, have led many people to believe that the men actually landed safely and faded into society. coondoggie writes This week Dutch scientists from Delft University of Technology presented findings from a computer modeling program they were working on, unrelated to the mystery, that demonstrated the escapees could have survived the journey. "In hindsight, the best time to launch a boat from Alcatraz was [11:30 am], one and a half hours later than has generally been assumed. A rubber boat leaving Alcatraz at [11:30 am] would most likely have landed just north of the Golden Gate Bridge. The model also shows that debris in that scenario would be likely to wash up at Angel Island, exactly where one of the paddles and some personal belongings were found.
1. Mythbusters (and others) have already tested this in real life (not a computer program) and said they could have survived.
2. They could have survived, but they didn't survive. Unless they lived out the rest of their lives in isolation; we would have heard something from them.
> Why didn't we ever hear anything from them after the escape?
Because they'd be sent back to prison if they revealed themselves. They had also embarrassed the warden of the "escape proof" Alcatraz in a very public way. Their first week back likely would have been rather unpleasant.
Think about it - they obviously didn't reoffend, right? If they had, they'd have been detected and returned (probably with a few extra bruises) to the Rock. Therefore, in the case of these three men the system worked perfectly - whether they escaped or not.
Not really, just keep a low profile long enough to make it to Mexico.u.
It is unlikely they would have done that. All three of these guys were troublemakers. They had been in and out of jails, and were in Alcatraz because they were disruptive in other prisons. They were not the type to just disappear and live a quiet life in some tropical backwater.
Did car reports always get filed on the correct day back then? It isn't like something they're going to put a CSI team on, so it might have really just not mattered to the cops exactly when a car was stolen unless it was one where they caught somebody with it. And then it would be the witnesses who needed to be helped to remember, not the paperwork.
My understanding of pre-computer paperwork, including during much of my life, is that you really can't say one way or the other if cars were reported stolen on a particular day, or not. And a stolen car was often not reported for a couple days. The first thing people tried to do was get to work because public transit sucked. It might not be until their day off that it gets reported. "Sorry Sir, you can't sign the complaint over the phone, you'll have to come in to the station."
They didn't need a car though, what they needed was a friend in town. It isn't exactly remote.
If they were smart enough to pull off this escape, they might be smart enough to realize enough is enough.
Mythbusters only briefly looked at currents and simulations (at least in the part that made it to the show). They did not attempt to replicate the tidal patterns. The new study has more science behind it. Mythbusters is great because it gets people thinking, but people shouldn't treat the shows as conclusive.